March 2020, was the Bull & Bear Tracker’s (BBT) best month for its published and also for its core or automated signals since the first signal was published in April 2018. The BBT’s published or managed signals for conservative traders to trade the S&P 500 SPY (long) and SH (short) ETF combinations produced a gain of 12.3% vs. the S&P 500’s 12.5% decline. The gain for the published signals’ S&P 500 triple leveraged SPXL (long) and SPXS (short) ETFs aggressive trader combination was 38.4%. For 17 of March’s 22 trading days, 73% of the time, the Bull & Bear Tracker’s published signals were in cash.
The month of March also shattered all of the previous monthly records for the algorithm’s automated signals which are in the market 24/7 and for 365 days per year. The automated signals are also known as the core signals since the managed or published signals are derived from them. Their gains were more than double the gains for the published signals. The automated SPY and SH ETF combination produced a gain of 29.3% (3487% annualized). The gain from trading the SPXL and SPXS ETFs was 79.11% (950% annualized). The 23 signal changes for March were more than the three previous months combined and 14 (60%) of them were winners.
The five signal changes for March 16th equaled the number of signals for the entire month of February. Four of the five signals were winners and aggregate gain for the day was an unleveraged 8.31% and a leveraged 24.1%.
For the nine months ended March 31, 2020, the Bull & Bear Tracker’s automated signals to trade the unleveraged SPY/SH combination produced a gain of 68.7% versus a loss of 12.9% for the S&P 500. The gain for the triple leveraged ETFs was 206%.
For the July 2019 to March 2020 period the success ratio for the signals was 67%. This compared to a success ratio of 56.5% for the back tested and 46.3% for the published signals for the April 9, 2018 to June 30, 2019 period.
The substantial unleveraged returns that were produced by the BBT’s published (12.8%) and automated (29.3%) signals for March 2020 were not anomalies. In March of 2020, the developer of the Bull & Bear Tracker’s algorithm developed the SCPA (Statistical Crash Probability Analyses) algorithm. The SCPA which forecasts post-crash event targets and dates is very complementary to the BBT. Click here to read about both algorithms and how they complement each other.
Both the BBT and the SCPA signaled that the markets for ten countries had either made or were near an interim post 2020 crash bottom on March 23, 2020. Mr. Markowski’s March 23, 2020 article “Probability is 87% that market is at interim bottom” was timely and the SCPA was precisely accurate.
On April 6, 2020, the SCPA forecasted that the interim post-crash high for the ten markets had occurred or would occur on April 14, 2020. See “Stock Market Relief Rally high date extended”.
The SCPA is forecasting that the probability is 100% for the stock markets of the US and the nine other countries to decline and to reach final bottoms in the fourth quarter of 2022 that will be 79% below their 2020 highs. To date the SCPA’s forecasts have been 100% accurate.
Due to market volatility in March of 2020, the publishing of all the Bull & Bear Tracker’s signals, which had been averaging a monthly return of 5% since July 2019, was suspended. See “Why the Bull & Bear Tracker exited the market on March 3rd”. From March 3 to April 14, 2020 three signals were published. See Bull & Bear Tracker subscriber notice.
It was due to concerns about investors and traders not following or not being in the position to follow the Bull & Tracker’s timely instructions explicitly. Another concern was the discovery that it was taking up to 15 minutes for the text messages to be delivered.
Mr. Markowski is now in the process to develop a much simpler and scaled down version of the Bull & Bear Tracker. The new version will incorporate a portion of the BBT’s signals along with the forecasts of his SCPA (Statistical Crash Probability Analyses) algorithm.
It will enable those who do not have the wherewithal to engage an investment advisor to grow their portfolios during the market’s journey to its fourth quarter of 2022 final bottom. Mr. Markowski’s BBT and SCPA algorithms are highly complementary.
To maximize the returns from the SCPA’s forecasts and from all of the Bull & Bear Tracker’s automated and published signals requires active management by an approved registered investment advisor. To be referred to a registered investment advisor click below.
Read Mr. Markowski’s March 31, 2020, article entitled “Embrace the Bear” to learn about:
- investing strategies that are best utilized during bear markets
- investing in ETFs which go up when the market goes down
- algorithms including the Bull & Bear Tracker and SCPA ’s which are being utilized by investors
The video of Mr. Markowski’s “Secular Bulls & Bears: Each requires different investing strategies” workshop at the February 2020 Orlando Money Show is highly recommended. The educational video explains secular bulls and bears and includes strategies to protect assets during secular bear markets and recessions, etc. The video also explains why diversification does not work and why penny and low priced stocks should be held.
BullsNBears.com which covers all of the emerging and declining economic and market trends is a one stop shop for bear market strategies and products. Click here to view one-minute video about the site.