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Bull & Bear Tracker subscriber,

The bad news:

  • The Bull & Bear Tracker has been GREEN since April 26, 2019.  This has resulted in a more than 10% paper loss as of the market close on May 13, 2019.        

The good news:

  • The volatility for the past week has enabled the signals to be further refined.  As of May 13th, the new go-to-100%-cash signal which had been under development since April is now operational.  According to the back tested data the newly implemented neutral signal has been in effect since May 7th.  Had the signal been operational the loss for the GREEN signal which is now in effect it would have been reduced by 7.5%.   

The signals have been under constant refinement since 2018 to reduce risk and increase performance.  In March 2019, we discovered that the intensity of the signals could be measured. The discovery enabled the less intense red signals to be eliminated.  From April 2018 through March 2019, 75% of the published RED signals had produced losses. The March breakthrough resulted in the Bull & Bear Tracker producing a net return of 7.5% for the month of April of 2019.  The lone red signal for the month of April produced a loss of 1.5%. Unfortunately, the refinement of the algorithm in March 2019 automatically eliminated the former RED signal. Had the change not been made the GREEN signal would have been replace by a RED signal on May 7th and the recent paper loss would have been substantially reduced.      

The additional good news is that the paper or realized loss for the GREEN signal which is now in effect should be able to be recouped quickly.  The combined back tested returns for the RED signal and the new go-to-100%-cash signal was approximately 60% from April 2018, through March 2019.  When added to the published return of 35% for the Bull & Bear Tracker’s GREEN signals for the same period the combined projected monthly return for the three signals is approximately 8%.

We will keep you updated about status of the current GREEN signal and will promptly alert you about the next signal change.   We will continue to refine the algorithm to reduce risk and improve performance.

Finally, please accept our apology for your having to undergo a 10% decline while the current GREEN signal has been in effect.

Michael Markowski,

Developer of Bull & Bear Tracker