Bull & Bear Tracker

Profiting From and Protecting Against Stock Market Volatility

In 2018, a secular bear market arrived to replace the 2009 secular bull market.  Based on the three previous secular bear markets the S&P 500 will likely:

  • Decline by 60% from its 2018 peak to its trough
  • Not eclipse its 2018 all-time peak until 2033
Secular Bull & Bear Markets, % changes @ peaks & troughs and years for to eclipse of prior bull peak
Period Secular market Years % change @ Peaks & Troughs year of prior peak eclipse & (years)
1929-1949 Bear 20 -93% 1955 (26)
1949-1966 Bull 17 +2,321%
1966-1982 Bear 16 -60% 1991 (25)
1982-2000 Bull 18 +699%
2000-2009 Bear 9 -60% 2015 (15)
2009-2018 Bull 9 +236%
2018-? Bear ? -60% est. 2033 (15) est.

For info about why market always either a secular Bull or Bear click here

 

Financial advisors and wealth managers have a vested interest to NOT advise clients to cash out of stock market during secular bear markets and recessions, etc.:

  • Fee to manage stock assets much higher than bond assets
  • Receive no fees from clients who are in cash

A statistic often cited by financial advisors to pacify edgy clients is that $100 invested in ____:

  • Grew to $1,910 by 2016 under a buy and hold strategy.
  • The amount fell to $310 assuming the $100 was not in the market for the best 25 days of the 46-year period.

However, the statistic rarely cited which is depicted in the chart below is $100 grew to $12,045 had it missed the 25 worst days during the 46 years.

The Bull & Bear Tracker’s products are the solutions for “the worst days of the market” dilemma which all investors now face.