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Digital Shiny Objects

Financial crises are really about trust. They tend to occur when people lose trust in assets, institutions, or people they had thought trustworthy. Whether the lost trust was a consequence of the crisis, or its cause is a different question. But they do seem to go...

Recession Thoughts

Early this week, with the severe inverted yield curve and other signals flashing recession, I planned to use this letter to delve into the data. Then Thursday’s CPI data convinced markets to blow the all-clear whistle. Lack of any “green shoots” would have been out of...

Dangerous Assumptions

Historically speaking, this phase of life we call “retirement” is a new concept. The idea you could stop working at a certain age was unknown until quite recently. People worked as long as they physically could, then died quickly unless they had family or servants to...

Where Are the Workers?

By now it should be clear Federal Reserve leaders intend to keep hiking until the economy breaks. Their recent speeches and interviews all underline this. Specifically, they want to reduce the strong consumer demand that has been keeping goods and service prices...

Currency Crescendo

Big problems usually begin as small problems. We see that in nature, where small disturbances become hurricanes, and we see it in the economy, too. So, it shouldn’t surprise us if the economic disturbances of the last years compound into something bigger. Going into...