Bull Vix’s Bullish Sentiment Anomaly signals gain 433%
Continuing empirical research of all Bullish Sentiment Anomaly (BSA) occurrences since 2010 has resulted in the Bull Vix’s signals to trade VIX related securities being tweaked to almost perfection. The cumulative net gain for the algorithm’s 27 signals, less than...
Retail Sales Missing Estimates Potential Catalyst for Market Correction?
U.S. retail sales fell short of estimates in October rising only 0.3%, the lowest pace in the last six months. The median estimates by Bloomberg’s survey of economists was a 0.5% increase. The miss could be the catalyst for a 5% to 10% market correction. This...
SCPA algo forecasting new low for Dow before US recession ends
Based on new empirical research findings the Dow Jones 30 (Dow) composite index is likely to soon peak and begin a steady decline to new lows in 2020 or 2021. According to the SCPA (Statistical Crash Probability Analyses) algorithm the probability is 90% for the Dow...
2020 Crash #2 Inevitable, so says new Algo
The US stock market will soon experience its second crash for 2020. My continuing empirical research of market crashes resulted in two new metrics being discovered. The combined two indicate that another violent market crash for 2020 is inevitable. These metrics...
Q2 GDP a major disaster
The US just reported disastrous Q2 GDP results, indeed, the worst on record. Output fell 9.5% in the three month through June or an annual 32.9%. At the same time unemployment claims in the week ended July 25 soared by 1.43 million to a total reported since March 21...
Bear Trader’s gains as high as 44% since March 2020
The Bear Trader, a trend trading algorithm that was spun off from the Bull & Bear Tracker to primarily trade inverse or short market index ETFs, enabled aggressive and conservative traders to make gains of 3.3% and 1.1% respectively for the month of May 2020. ...
Inflation, Stock Market’s worst nemesis on the horizon
My recent article pointed out that after adjusting for inflation, it took 30 years (or until 1959) for the stock market to recover to its 1929 high. The revelation prompted me to conduct additional empirical research on GDP and its components from 1929 to 1942. My...
US Market and GDP will not exceed recent highs until 2030
Based on the findings from my most recent empirical research, it will be at least 11 years before the US’ stock market and GDP climb back to above their recent all-time highs. Since the S&P 500, Dow and NASDAQ composites have rallied back from their March 2020...
Fed can’t Fool Mother Nature!
The S&P 500’s rally from its March 2020 low to within 13.2% of its 2020 high has been primarily fueled by the US Federal Reserve’s monetary stimulus. The Fed has and continues to spend trillions to provide the economy with liquidity and to artificially prop up...
Bull & Bear Tracker S&P 500 core signals outperform S&P 500 for 7 out of 8 months
The Bull & Bear Tracker’s (BBT) core or automated signals to trade S&P 500’s SPY and SH ETFs outperformed the S&P 500 and also the BBT’s managed signals for the eight months ended February 29, 2020. The risk for BBT’s automated and its managed signals was...
Bear Trader, Short the Market Algo up 40.6% since March 2020
The Bear Trader, a trend trading algorithm that primarily trades inverse or short market index ETFs, enabled conservative and aggressive traders to make gains of 13.62% and 40.60% respectively from March 3, 2020, to April 30, 2020. The Bear Trader, which will soon be...
Interim relief rally highs for markets has or will soon occur
Based on the signals from the SCPA (crash statistical probability analyses) and the Bull & Bear Tracker algorithms its probable that the stock markets of the US and 12 other countries that have been crashing have reached or will soon reach their interim relief...
Market volatility to power 17% monthly gains through October 2022
Increased market volatility since February 2020, will power average monthly gains of 17% and cumulative gains of 500% from trading the long and short ETFs for the US and 12 other countries through October 2022 according to the SCPA algorithm. The markets of the 13...
Worldwide 1930s Style Depression Has Begun!
SCPA (statistical crash probability analyses) forecast: 100% probability the first worldwide economic depression has begun! World and US economies to decline through at least 2023. These bold statements are based on statistical probability analyses of two new...
Bull & Bear Tracker shatters all monthly records for March 2020
March 2020, was the Bull & Bear Tracker’s (BBT) best month for its published and also for its core or automated signals since the first signal was published in April 2018. The BBT’s published or managed signals for conservative traders to trade the S&P 500...
Month over month decline in Consumer confidence largest ever recorded
University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US fell to 71 in April from 89.1 in March, missing market expectations of 75 by a considerable margin. The April numbers are the lowest reading since December of 2011 and the largest monthly decline ever recorded. The...
Difference between market corrections and crashes
Due to my recent findings from researching the empirical data of prior market crashes since 1901, investors in the future will be able to distinguish a crash from a correction. All crashes and corrections can now be measured and categorized. The chart below for...
Stock market relief rally high date extended
The date range for the SCPA’s forecasted relief rally highs for stock markets of the US, Japan, Germany, France, South Korea, and Canada to occur has been adjusted. Based on the adjustment the SCPA’s new 100% statistical probability is that the relief rally highs...
Markets now at tipping point; roller coaster ride will be epic
The market indices of the US, Japan, South Korea, Canada, France and Germany and the share prices for many of the world’s largest companies including Apple and Microsoft are at the tipping point. Stocks and indices reached their post-crash and relief rally closing...
Embrace the Bear!
Investors must embrace the bear. A savvy investor or advisor can generate significantly more profits from a secular bear than a secular bull. It’s also much easier to predict the behavior of a wild and vicious bear than a domesticated bull. The new 2020 secular...
The TRUTH about Dow’s “… Biggest One-Day Jump Since 1933”
The Wall Street Journal’s “Dow Soars More Than 11% in Biggest One-Day Jump Since 1933” was inaccurate. It should have read since “1929”. The article should have been about the Dow Jones industrials composite index having its best one day and three-day percentage...
Crash event forecasting algo nails another one
In yesterday’s “Crash events forecasting also accurate at calling market tops and bottoms”, March 24, 2020, article the statistical crash probability analysis (SCPA) algorithm forecasted that the probability was 100% that the stock indices for the US, Japan, Germany,...
Crash events forecasting algo accurate at calling market tops and bottoms
The statistical crash probability analysis (SCPA) algorithm’s forecast for an interim market bottom to occur on March 23, 2020, was precisely accurate. It was the algo’s third consecutive precise major global markets call for March of 2020. The day after the...
Bull & Bear Tracker signal sell targets raised
My March 23, 2020, “Probability is 87% that market is at interim bottom” article contained the projected targets for eight global stock market indices upon a significant market rally occurring. Now that a powerful rally is now underway the targets have been...
Probability is 87% that market is at interim bottom
Based on my crash statistical probability analysis (SCPA) the probability is 87.5% that the stock markets of the US and the five other leading developed countries, which have been crashing since February 20, 2020, have reached an interim bottom. If the interim...