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The Figure-It-Out Economy

by | May 1, 2020 5:00 | , ,

Market sentiment reflects human sentiment, which lately has been quite negative—understandably so, given the great uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus pandemic. A month ago, we didn’t know where all this was going but it was potentially serious. I can almost begin...

Viral Thoughts

by | Apr 24, 2020 5:00 | , ,

We are looking at a world with parameters bounded by pure imagination; where we go from here is anyone's guess. —Will Thomson and Chip Russell, Massif Capital Today’s letter will be another hop-around review of the crisis landscape. I’ll touch on several topics...

Bull & Bear Tracker Notice

by | Apr 19, 2020 20:18 | ,

The good news is that the cumulative gains for conservative traders trading the inverse SH ETF last week was 1.9% and for aggressive traders who traded the inverse SPXS last week was 6%.The bad news is that due to extremely volatile market conditions the signals in...

Repricing the World

by | Apr 17, 2020 5:00 | , ,

The viral fog is starting to thin. US coronavirus case growth appears to be slowing, albeit at a tragically high level. Governments and businesses are thinking about the next stage. On the other hand, fog tends to return when the weather is right. Might this virus...

Bending the Inflation Curve

by | Apr 10, 2020 5:00 | , ,

“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output. … A steady rate of monetary growth at a moderate level can provide a framework under which a...

Notes from Lockdown

by | Apr 3, 2020 5:00 | , ,

In times of change learners inherit the earth; while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists. —Eric Hoffer Greetings from Puerto Rico, where this frequent traveler is evidently home for an unusually long time. I want...

The Beacons Are Lit

by | Mar 20, 2020 5:00 | , ,

In the film version of Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, there’s a three-minute scene you should watch or re-watch. It is relevant to our situation today. Gondor needed to light the beacons for aid. Click here for video. At the other end of the beacons,...

Stock market, a buy at October lows

by | Mar 1, 2020 15:42 | ,

Glass Bead Capital Management (Glass Bead) warned our readers and investors on January 23rd that the market was vulnerable to a correction and that it would be wise to take profits. We had deduced that the probability was fairly high that the market would provide a...

The Hits to GDP

by | Feb 7, 2020 5:00 | , ,

Economists and investors are rightly obsessed with growth. We always want more of it. We worry it won’t come or, worse, might turn into contraction. Economists of all stripes, from Paul Krugman to Lacy Hunt, recognize economic growth cures all manner of ills. Yet,...

Dismissing the Experts

by | Jan 31, 2020 5:00 | , ,

Regular readers know I often criticize so-called “experts,” usually economists or central bankers whose flawed decisions are punishing the rest of us. I find their expertise is not nearly as reliable as they seem to think. At the same time, I rely on experts whose...

Nose Blind to Inflation

by | Jan 24, 2020 5:00 | , ,

The human brain excels at taking shortcuts. Processing all the information our senses collect takes a lot of energy, so repetitive data gets lower priority. Things we see often fade into the background so we can notice new stuff. This is where we get phenomena like...

Too Much Greed — Moving To The Sidelines

by | Jan 23, 2020 14:10 | ,

It has been a little over 3 months since our last commentary where we predicted that the market was likely to begin a big trending rally as we cleared almost 2 years of a range bound S&P500 and other major indices. Ranges are very important as they serve to...

Looking on the Bright Side

by | Jan 17, 2020 5:00 | , ,

We haven’t had a lot of good news lately. Or, more precisely, we haven’t seen a lot of good news lately, though it does exist. We don’t see it because both regular media and social media usually focus on the bad. That’s not entirely wrong. The survival imperative...

Prelude to Crisis

by | Dec 20, 2019 5:00 | , ,

Ignoring problems rarely solves them. You need to deal with them—not just the effects, but the underlying causes, or else they usually get worse. The older you get, the more you know that is true in almost every area of life. In the developed world and especially the...

Time to Do the Hard Thing

by | Dec 13, 2019 5:00 | , ,

We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to...

Inflationary Angst

by | Dec 6, 2019 5:00 | , ,

According to the dictionary, the word angst refers to “a feeling of deep anxiety or dread, typically an unfocused one about the human condition or the state of the world in general.” It comes from a German word for “fear.” Two weeks ago I referred back to my...

Advice Worth Taking

by | Nov 27, 2019 5:15 | , ,

We’ve reached the Thanksgiving weekend, and as always, I’m thankful for loyal readers like you. I hope you are enjoying some quality time with family and friends. And because of the holiday, this week’s letter will be shorter than usual, but I think it will offer real...

Muddling for Solutions

by | Nov 22, 2019 5:00 | , ,

Those who experienced the 1930s as adults are mostly gone now, but they left notes. We have a pretty good record of what that period was like. It wasn’t fun to begin with—then it got worse. This year, I’ve written several times about the 1930s parallels that Ray Dalio...

The Road to Default

by | Nov 15, 2019 5:00 | , ,

Nothing is forever, not even debt. Every borrower eventually either repays what they owe, or defaults. Lenders may or may not have remedies. But one way or another, the debt goes away. One of Western civilization’s largest problems is we’ve convinced ourselves debt...