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Pushing Extremes
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. President, Hussman Investment Trust November 2020 The one reality that you can never change is that a higher-priced asset will produce a lower return than a lower-priced asset. You can’t have your cake and eat it. You can enjoy it now, or...
November Consumer Sentiment Reading Lowest since August
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment decreased to 77 in November from 81.8 in October, a preliminary estimate showed. It is the lowest reading since August as consumers judged future economic prospects less favorably, while their assessments of current...
Premature Vaccine Rally to soon Fizzle!
Article edited on 11/15/2020 The stock market rally after Pfizer announced that its Coronavirus vaccine had 90% efficacy was premature since the vaccine: Now in stage 3 clinical trials has been fast tracked by FDA for emergency use ONLY Must finish Stage 3 and also...
Market Breaks Out On Vaccine Hopes As Cases Surge 11-13-20
In this issue of “Market Breaks Out On Vaccine Hopes As Cases Surge.” Market Breaks Out Barely Vaccine Will Arrive Too Late The “Smart Money” Is Leaving Town Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: The Fed Will Monetize All Debt Issuance Sector...
A Chance for Normalcy
Last week I talked about the polls misleading us. I, for one, didn’t see a high probability of a Biden presidency combined with a Republican Senate. But, pending recounts, legal actions, and some run-off elections, that’s probably what will happen. We will muddle...
Technically Speaking: S&P 3750 – Market Surges On Vaccine Hopes
In Mid-August, I posited a potential bullish run on the S&P index to 3750. For that to occur from the levels we discussed then, several things would have to happen. One of those was a “vaccine.” Yesterday, the market surged higher on news the Pfizer...
Sell Mega-cap tech stocks due to Vaccine Discovery!
When Pfizer announced a 90% effective vaccine for the Coronavirus on Monday November 9, 2020, the US stock market closed one chapter and opened another. The new chapter ushers in extreme volatility for the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 indices. The EXTREME volatility,...
Post-Election sentiment reading algorithm indicates market trend down
The BBT algorithm’s negative post-election sentiment readings intensifying for the last three days of the trading week ended Friday November 6, 2020, indicate that the US stock market will trend steadily lower for the foreseeable future. The probability is high for...
Market Surges As Election Turns Into Optimal Outcome 11-06-20
In this 11-06-20 issue of “Market Surges As Election Turns Into Optimal Outcome.” Market Surges As Election Remains Unclear Gridlock Is Best For Markets The Focus Turns Back To The Fed Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: The Fed Will Monetize All Debt...
Complexity Wins Again
Here in Puerto Rico we are now an hour ahead of Eastern Time, as we don’t do daylight savings time. I stayed up much later than normal on election night to watch the returns. I knew fairly early, when Florida and North Carolina looked so close, we weren’t going to see...
BullsNBears’ Four Election Outcome Scenarios
There are four possible post 2020 election outcome scenarios which will determine the direction of the US stock market through November 2022: Republican President/Republican Senate/ Democrat House Republican President/Democrat Senate/ Democrat House Democrat...
Technically Speaking: Rules To Navigate A Contentious Election
In “Policies Over Politics,” we discussed the markets’ historical trends during the presidential election years. That data mostly assumes the election process goes smoothly, and a President is declared quickly. However, in 2020, a very different...
Bull & Bear Tracker 100% accurate in predicting Volatile Election market moves
Bull & Bear Tracker’s signals to trade long and short S&P 500 ETFs; SPY and SH were 100% accurate in predicting the direction of the world’s two most volatile elections since 2016: Brexit June 23, 2016 The Bull & Bear Tracker’s signal was red indicating a...
Market Drops As Traders Head For The Pre-Election Exit 10-31-20
In this issue of “Market Drops As Traders Head For The Pre-Election Exit.” Market Breaks Support Still Trading With Election Year Stats – For Now A Word About That “Boomer” GDP Report Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: The Fed Will...
What Will Not Change
“If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.” If you feel a bit overwhelmed, you’re not alone. A lot is happening right now. The US has a big election next week. We’re all on edge about the pandemic, which appears to be getting worse again,...
Technically Speaking: It’s Coming. A Huge Bond Buying Opportunity.
Here we go again. After plunging to new lows, the calls for the end of the “bond bull” market mount each time rates rise. Is this time the end of the “bond bull?” Or, is there another huge bond-buying opportunity to come? We recently reduced...
Stimulus. No Stimulus. Market Bounces With Headlines. 10-23-20
In this issue of “Stimulus. No Stimulus. Market Bounces With Headlines.” Market Bounces With Headlines Back To Excess Optimism Bull Now, Bear Later Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: Recessions Are A Good Thing, Let Them Happen Sector & Market...
The Green Shoots of 2020
Appearing on 60 Minutes, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke said the recession’s end was in sight because the Fed’s asset purchases were generating “green shoots.” They turned out to be slow-growing shoots. The US unemployment rate kept getting worse for seven more months...
Technically Speaking: Market Bulls Are “All-In” Again
In yesterday’s post on “Moral Hazard,” we discussed how Fed actions shifted the “risk appetite” of investors through “perceived” insurance against losses. As we head into a potentially contentious election, market...
Herd Mentality
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. President, Hussman Investment Trust October 2020 That the rate of interest will be lower when commerce languishes and when there is little demand for money, than when the energies of commerce are in full play and there is an active demand...
Market Stumbles As Stimulus Hopes Fade 10-16-20
In this issue of “Market Stumbles As Stimulus Hopes Fade.” Hopes For More Stimulus Election Night Risk Economic Disappointment Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: Recessions Are A Good Thing, Let Them Happen Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan...
Caught in a Debt Trap
We're caught in a trapI can't walk outBecause I love you too much baby Elvis Presley’s rendition of Suspicious Minds topped the record charts in 1969. The lyrics portray a romance that couldn’t work, but was also impossible to escape. That’s also a good way to...
Technically Speaking: COT – Everyone’s Back In The Pool: Q3-2020
As discussed in Hopes Of More Stimulus, the market has rebounded following the September decline. Unfortunately, the market has again gotten quite ahead of the fundamentals as money continues to chase performance. In the Q3-2020 review of the Commitment Of Traders...
Market Regains Footing On Hopes Of More Stimulus
In this issue of “Market Regains Footing On Hopes Of More Stimulus.” Hopes For More Stimulus Market Regains Its Footing Policies Over Politics Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: The Second Derivative Of More Stimulus Sector & Market Analysis 401k...
Timeline to the New Normal
Like everyone else, I am weary of this pandemic mess. I want to travel freely, enjoy dinner with friends, hug, and shake hands. And, of course, I want everyone who lost jobs and businesses to get them back. I wasn’t thrilled with the economy a year ago, but I’d take...
Technically Speaking: Why This Is Still A Sellable Rally, For Now.
In this past weekend’s missive “Trump Infects Markets Bounce,” we discussed even though the market had bounced off support, we still consider it a “sellable rally,” for now. The comment generated quite a few emails, mainly since we also...
Trump’s COVID Infects The Market Bounce. Is It Over? 10-02-20
In this issue of “Trump’s COVID Infects The Market Bounce, Is It Over?” Administrative Note Market Catches Trump’s COVID Infection. Does It Matter Who Wins The Election? Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: The Astonishing Lack Of Value In...
Debt Bugs and Windshields
"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion." —Ludwig von Mises Economic recovery is coming, we are told, because the economy has found a new equilibrium. We are supposedly adapting to the new-normal pandemic world,...
US economy and stock market at high risk due savings as a percentage of disposable income remaining elevated
During the month of July 2020, the savings rate as a percentage of disposable income was 17.8%. For the seven months ended July 31st, 2020, savings rates averaged 17.7% (harmonic mean of 13.7% & geometric mean of 15.6%). This compares to the 7.5% average for...
Market making new highs before election will predict Trump win
Before I begin explaining why I believe this to be the most probable outcome a few disclosures are necessary. First and foremost, at Glass Bead Capital we use a systematic risk management strategy which is designed to protect capital in the event that our opinion...
Great Reset Update: $50 Trillion Debt Coming
Amid all 2020’s new problems, it’s easy to overlook the old ones. Yet they are still there and, like a silently spreading virus, silently getting worse. One such problem is debt, and specifically government debt. All debt shares one common characteristic. A bill comes...
Technically Speaking: Market Realized No Help Is Coming
Last week, we asked the question: “Is everything ‘priced in?'” On Monday, the market realized no help is coming as the political backdrop worsened markedly. However, we need to back up a little bit to discuss how we got here. In the middle of August,...
The Pre-Election Correction Continues, Is It Over? 09-18-20
In this issue of “The Pre-Election Correction Continues, Is It Over?” The Correction Continues A Historical Look At Pre- And Post-Election Years Will Policy Matter Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: A Permanent Shift To Valuations Sector & Market...
Stall Speed Economy
When Cornwallis surrendered to George Washington at Yorktown in 1781, tradition has it that the British band played an old English children’s folk tune, “The World Turned Upside Down.” Painting by John Trumbull If buttercups buzz’d after the bee,If boats were on land,...
Technically Speaking: Is Everything “Priced In?”
Is everything “priced in?” Investors have gone “all in” with a disregard for caution. But with markets extended and overvalued what should investors do now? As discussed in this past weekend’s newsletter, investors got even more...
Correction Makes Speculators Even More Speculative 09-11-20
In this issue of “Correction Makes Speculators Even More Speculative.” The Correction We Warned About Speculators Get Even More Speculative Longer-Term Market Still Very Overbought Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: A Permanent Shift To Valuations...
On the Question of Current and Future Lockdowns
Simply discussing COVID-19 will undoubtedly make this letter controversial and, in some circles, political. That is not my intent. I truly believe that something affecting all of us so deeply should be kept in the scientific realm to the extent possible, not the...
The 1998 Correction & The Run To The Peak
Over the last few months, the markets have become engulfed by a palpable feeling of exuberance. I remember the last time investors were engulfed in a near “panic” to invest. It was 1998, where following a correction, the market began a seemingly endless...
How To Find Value In An Upside Down World
How To Find Value In An Upside Down World “When the world turns upside down, the best thing to do is turn right along with it.” – Mary Poppins Is Mary’s advice proper when it is your hard-earned wealth at stake? There is no doubt that investors are living in...
Market Finally Cracks. Is The Bull Market Rally Over? 09-04-20
In this issue of “Market Finally Cracks. Is The Bull Market Rally Over?” Market Finally Cracks Signs, Signs, Everywhere Signs Momentum Is Hard To Kill Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: 5-Reasons The Fed’s Policy Won’t Get Inflation Sector...
Inflation Virus Strikes Fed
One little-noted aspect of central bank policy is how rarely “policy” happens. Officials at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere long ago learned how to achieve their goals without actually doing anything. Creating perceptions is often enough to modify people’s behavior....
SCPA algo forecasting new low for Dow before US recession ends
Based on new empirical research findings the Dow Jones 30 (Dow) composite index is likely to soon peak and begin a steady decline to new lows in 2020 or 2021. According to the SCPA (Statistical Crash Probability Analyses) algorithm the probability is 90% for the Dow...
Technically Speaking: Margin Debt Confirms Bull Market
During the past couple of months, I discussed why the 35% decline in March was only a “correction” and not a “bear market.” Technically speaking, margin debt also confirms the bull market remains intact. However, therein also lies the risk of...
Yikes
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. President, Hussman Investment Trust September 2020 The most striking similarity between the 1920s and 1990s bull markets is the notion that traditional measures of stock valuation had become obsolete. – Edward Chancellor, Devil Take The...
Winter Is Coming. Is It Time For “Value” To Shine? 08-28-20
In this issue of “Winter Is Coming Is It Time For Value To Shine?” Market Is At Technical Extremes More Signs Of Exuberance Is There A Rotation To Value Coming. Winter Is Coming MacroView: March Was A Correction Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan...
#MacroView: A Tale Of Two Bull Markets
It’s a tale of two bull markets. One part of the market is trading as you would expect with near depressionary economic numbers. The only description for the other part is “insane.” In last week’s #Macroview, we discussed that “March Was...
Light in the COVID Tunnel
If you ever think you just can’t win, I know how you feel. I’m labeled both a doomsayer and a Pollyanna—sometimes in reaction to the same letter. In fact, I am neither. I used to be the “muddle-through” guy who acknowledged difficulty but expected eventual success....
Probability of V-Shape Recovery Low, Depression High
For the second quarter of 2020, US GDP experienced its worst ever contraction of 32%. The key question now is how fast will the economy recover? Morgan Stanley has emphatically stated that the economy would climb back to its pre pandemic February 2020 level by...
Technically Speaking: Why This Isn’t 1920. Valuations & Returns
Why this isn’t 1920 has everything to starting valuations and future returns. While, generally, I’m not too fond of comparisons between today’s markets and the past, Ed Yardeni made a comparison too bombastic to disregard in his blog: “We live in...
Tending The Portfolio “Garden” As Winter Approaches 08-21-20
In this issue of, “Tending The Portfolio Garden As Winter Approaches” Shortest Bear Market In History Signs Of Excessive Exuberance Why Investing Is Like Gardening Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: March Was A Correction Sector & Market Analysis...
More indications of good economic news
Economic news for the US this week showed more improvements, this time in the housing industry. If this trend persists, it should have a positive impact on the rest of the economy especially on retail sales of big-ticket items. It should help car and furniture sales....
#MacroView: March Was A Correction, Bear Market Still Lurks.
As we have been discussing, this past week, the S&P 500 index set an all-time high. Importantly, the breakout to all-time highs confirms the 35% decline in March was only a correction and not a bear market. The implications are important as the change of...
Business on the Frontline
I write this introduction from an all-too-short vacation in Montana (more below). This week I have asked my longtime associate Patrick Watson to step in and write Thoughts from the Frontline, offering his perspective as a small business owner. As you read this,...
Fundamentally Speaking: Earnings Don’t Support Bullish Thesis
With the second quarter of the 2020 reporting season mostly behind us, and with markets testing “all-time” highs, do earnings support the bullish thesis? Such is the fundamental question surrounding the debate over the record deviation between...
Consumer Sentiment Readings do not bode well for President or the market
The University of Michigan’s August consumer confidence readings do not bode well for Trump or the stock market. Confidence in the government’s economic policy fell to the lowest level since early 2017. The index had climbed to its highest level since...
“Close But No Cigar,” Bulls Fail To Capture Market Highs 08-14-20
In this issue of, “Close But No Cigar, Bulls Fail To Capture Market Highs” Close But No Cigar The Coming Income Cliff Hedging Risk MacroView: Why Soros Just Called The Market A Bubble Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter,...
Faint signs of improvement for US economy
There appear to be faint signs of improvement in the US economy and they could not come at a better time for President Trump whose reelection chances are dimming with every passing day. There is an improvement in employment, in job openings which increased in June and...
The Second Great Depression… But Not Really
"It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it's a depression when you lose yours." —Harry S. Truman, 33rd US President In recent weeks, numerous commentators started to suggest the US and the world are entering a depression. For some areas of the economy,...
Technically Speaking: S&P 3750. Is It The Light, Or A Train?
Mentally, it has been a challenge to marry a market challenging all-time highs against a backdrop of weaker earnings, falling profits, surging unemployment, and a recessionary economy. Yet, here we are. While the bulls have set S&P targets to 3750 over the next...
Another Market Expert concerned about falling dollar negatively impacting US stock market
In her CNBC appearance below Lori Calvasina, the head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets explained the negative side effects for the US stock market due to the US Dollar declining to multi-year lows versus all currencies. Ms. Calvasina also provided some...
Bulls Chant Into A Megaphone – “All-Time Highs”
In this issue of, “Bulls Chant Into A Megaphone – ‘All-Time Highs:” Bulls Charge To All-Time Highs Exuberance Abounds The Megaphone Risk/Reward Ranges MacroView: Everything The Fed Does Is Deflationary Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan...
Yellow Flag Jobs Data
As I file this letter Friday morning, people are reacting to the July jobs report. My own reaction: The headline report is absurd. I will explain further at the end of this letter. But first, I have another topic. Regular readers know I worry about debt, mainly that...
Technically Speaking: COT Positioning – Back To Extremes: Q2-2020
As discussed in Is It Insanely Stupid To Chase Stocks, the market has gotten quite ahead of the fundamentals as money continues to chase performance. In the Q2-2020 review of Commitment Of Traders report (COT,) we can see how positioning has moved back to extremes....
“Insanely Stupid” To Chase Stocks As Economy Plunges? 07-31-20
In this issue of, “Is It Insanely Stupid To Chase Stocks As The Economy Plunges.” Stocks Hug The Bullish Trend The Gold/Dollar Conundrum The GDP Crash Is It “Insanely Stupid” To Chase Stocks Managing Into The Unknown MacroView: Universal Basic...
2020 Crash #2 Inevitable, so says new Algo
The US stock market will soon experience its second crash for 2020. My continuing empirical research of market crashes resulted in two new metrics being discovered. The combined two indicate that another violent market crash for 2020 is inevitable. These metrics...
European Resurgence
One of COVID-19’s many less-than-obvious consequences is the way it makes us look inward. Facing mortality has always done that, of course. West Texas Judge Roy Bean reportedly said, “Nothing focuses the mind like a good hanging.” For the vulnerable and those of us of...
Avoiding a Second Wave
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. President, Hussman Investment Trust August 2020 Owing to the lack of effective therapeutics or vaccines, the best measures to control human coronaviruses remain a strong public health surveillance system coupled with rapid diagnostic...
The Fed kept rates unchanged and intends to remain accommodative
The Fed at its Open Markets Committee meeting on Wednesday left rates unchanged at near zero. The Fed also assured everyone that it will continue to support the US economy as the pandemic keeps depressing economic growth. Moreover, the Fed made clear that the weak...
Technically Speaking: Looking For A Sellable Rally To Reduce Risk.
As July comes to an end, should we be looking for a sellable rally to reduce risk? As addressed in “Fed Stimulus Has Created The Cobra Effect,” the failure of the market to “breakout” of the June highs raises our risk. To wit: “With the...
Is stagflation upon us?
On Tuesday/Wednesday the Fed will hold its July Open Market Committee meetings. The policy-setting gathering is certain to keep its main rate unchanged and push for continued easy money. Fed Chairman Powell is sure to reiterate his concerns about the poor outlook for...
Two Compelling reasons for rally from 2020 low
As the Coronavirus continues to plague the world it seems like it has been a very long 4 months from when we hit the depths of the bear market. On March 23rd we alerted our investors and readers that the Stock Market was reaching a bottom despite the panic many...
Fed Stimulus Has Created The “Cobra Effect.” 07-24-20
In this issue of, “Fed Stimulus Has Created The Cobra Effect.” Stocks Fail To Breakout More Warning Sighs The Cobra Effect Porfolio Positioning Update MacroView: Navigating The Tech Bubble (& Live To Tell About It) Sector & Market Analysis 401k...
Valuation Inflation
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” —Benjamin Graham You may have noticed a bit of manic activity in the stock market. You may have also noticed inflation (as measured by various government...
Continued poor economic outlook
The US economic outlook continues to be quite poor although various recently released indicators point to some modest improvements in economic activity. For instance, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index in June rose to a record high of 4.11 from an upwardly...
Technically Speaking: 15-Bullish Beliefs (Or Not) For The Market
In this edition of “Technically Speaking” we analyze the 15-bullish beliefs (or not) currently supporting the market. Is this time different? Or should investors be concerned? Bullish Moves Yesterday, the market broke out of its consolidation range that we...
Stocks Struggle As The Bull Market In Virus Cases Rises 07-17-20
In this issue of, “Stocks Struggle As The Bull Market In Virus Cases Rises” Technically Trapped Economic Expectations Slow Who Ya Gonna Believe The Risk Of Confirmation Bias MacroView: Value Is Dead. Long Live Value. Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager...
Small Business Blues
Politicians love saying small businesses are important to the economy. In this case, it isn’t just rhetoric. The millions of little companies with a handful of workers are, collectively, more important than the few hundred large enterprises we see in the news. That’s...
Technically Speaking: “Golden Cross” Arrives, Are The Bulls Safe?
In this week’s “Technically Speaking,” the “Golden Cross” arrives, but are the bulls safe? As noted two weeks ago, is the 50/200 dma crossover is historically bullish for equities. However, with markets facing one of the worst earnings...
Fundamentally Unsound
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. President, Hussman Investment Trust July 2020 Instead of judging the market price by established standards of value, the new era based its standards of value upon the market price. Hence, all upper limits disappeared, not only upon the...
This Is Nuts…Again. Reducing Risk As Tech Goes 1999 07-11-20
In this issue of, “This Is Nuts…Again. Reducing Risk As Tech Goes 1999.” Twice In One Year Fundamentally Detached A Very Narrow Market Portfolio Positioning MacroView: The Fed Has Inflated Another Asset Bubble Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan...
Stumble-Through Jobs Market
Work has always been a fact of life. Paycheck-producing jobs are actually a recent development. Until the Industrial Revolution, most people lived on subsistence agriculture, sustaining themselves with whatever they could produce or working as slaves/serfs. The...
We cannot expect much positive news on the economy
The economic outlook is not encouraging, no matter how much the president wants to paint a rosy picture. The coronavirus is the primary culprit and the pandemic is not even close to being brought under control. Indications are that the virus and the associated disease...
The Death Of Fundamentals & The Future Of Low Returns
Over the last quarter, the “Death of Fundamentals” has become apparent as investors ignore earnings to chase market momentum. However, throughout history, such large divergences between fundamentals and price have resulted in low future returns. This time...
The Theory Of MMT Falls Flat When Faced With Reality (Part II)
If you missed Part-1 of our series on the “Theory Of MMT Falls Flat When Faced With Reality,” start there. In Part-2, we complete our analysis of the theory and the potential ramifications. The premise of our discussion was this recent explanation of...
S&P 500 does not reflect the true damage to investor portfolios
The S&P 500 which has declined by 3.1% since the beginning of 2020 does not reflect the true state of the stock market and the damage that has been done to investor portfolios. For the year through July 5, 2020, only four of the S&P 500’s eleven sectors are...
Defensive investor’s best friend, Bear Trader outperforms S&P 500 for June 2020
Bear Trader, out-performed the S&P 500 for June 2020 even though the algorithm spent 63% of the month’s days on the sidelines. Bear Trader’s alerts to trade the tripled leveraged index ETFs; symbols SDOW, SQQQ and SPXL for June produced a net gain of 5.6%. ...
For the short term, lower unemployment is a relief
President Trump made a big deal about the June employment data that showed a good jump in people going back to work following weeks of coronavirus-induced furloughs. US unemployment dropped to 11.1% in June, falling from an all-time high of 14.7% in April. The number...
The Bullish Test Comes As Earnings Season Begins 07-03-20
In this issue of, “The Bullish Test Comes As Earnings Season Begins:” A Breakout Of Consolidation Updated Estimates As Earnings Begin A Quick Note On The Jobs Report Portfolio Positioning MacroView: The Fed Has Inflated Another Asset Bubble Sector &...
The Blacker Swan
“A similar effect is taking place in economic life. I spoke about globalization in Chapter 3; it is here, but it is not all for the good: it creates interlocking fragility, while reducing volatility and giving the appearance of stability. In other words, it creates...
Bear Trader Pro to increase subscriber profits
Bear Trader Pro, a professional version of Bear Trader will soon be available. The Bear Trader will also continue to be available for subscription. A professional version was needed since Bear Trader’s text messaged instructions for @market orders are sent before...
RIAPro: 15-Investing Rules To Win The Long-Game
I wanted to share with you a post I wrote for our RIAPro subscribers (try risk-free for 30-days) on the 15-investing rules to win the long-game. The rather “Pavlovian” response to Central Bank interventions has led investors into a false sense of security with respect...
The Theory Of MMT Falls Flat When Faced With Reality (Part I)
If you haven’t heard of Modern Monetary Theory, or “MMT,” you will soon. If you recently lost your job due to the economic shut down, and received a stimulus check, you are already a beneficiary. As we will discuss in Part-1 of this two-part series,...
Bear Trader Friday June 26th alert explained
You are receiving this message since the alert which was sent to Bear Trader subscribers and former Bull & Bear Tracker subscribers on Friday June 26th was out of the ordinary. On Wednesday June 24, 2020, Bear Trader sent its first green alert to buy a long...
Market Corrects As COVID Cases Surge 06-26-20
In this issue of “Market Corrects As COVID Cases Surge.” Market Holds Bullish Support From Bubble, To Bust, To Bubble The Problem With 2-Year Forecasts A Bearish Pattern Remains Portfolio Positioning MacroView: Rationalizing High Valuations Won’t...
A Recession Like No Other
We just spent the better part of a decade wondering when the next recession would strike. The last two months we stopped wondering. It’s here and a grand council of esteemed economists has confirmed it. On June 8, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National...
Based on announced acquisition, Tortoise Acquisition shares have great upside potential
Tortoise Acquisition Corporation (symbol: SHLL) has announced their acquisition of Hyliion Inc. Hyliion is entering the industry of green energy trucking. Hyliion’s biggest competitors are Tesla and Nikola Motors. Their Mission is to “Be the leading powertrain...
Technically Speaking: Unicorns, Rainbows, & Fully Invested Bears
In this week’s “Technically Speaking,” I want to review the bull case, which is seeming built on “Unicorns” and “Rainbows,” as opposed to the more bearish fundamental backdrop. We are uncomfortably “long equities”...
Why recent high will prove to be post-crash market high
The SCPA algorithm (Statistical Crash Probability Analyses), indicates the probability is 100% that the markets for 13 of the world’s largest GDP ranked countries, including the US, reached their post-crash highs from Friday June 5, 2020 to Monday June 8, 2020. ...
Market Holds 200-DMA, Bulls Remain In Control…For Now 06-19-20
In this issue of “Market Holds 200-DMA, Bulls Remain In Control.” Market Holds Bullish Support From Bubble, To Bust, To Bubble The Problem With 2-Year Forecasts A Bearish Pattern Remains Portfolio Positioning MacroView: Rationalizing High Valuations...
Where We Go from Here
Predictions are difficult, especially those about the future. That old proverb (often attributed to Yogi Berra) is right but you can’t live without making certain presumptions. You presume your car will start, your refrigerator will stay cold, the lights will turn on...
Housing statistics show a mixed picture for the economy
Housing starts increased 4.3% to an annualized rate of 0.97 million in May, below market forecasts of 1,095 million and only slightly higher than an upwardly revised 0.93 million in April. It is the second-lowest level since 2015, suggesting the housing market...
Technically Speaking: Bulls & Bears Square Off At The Line
Last week, we discussed investors throwing caution to the wind and the need to take on defensive positioning. One week later, the bulls and bears are squaring off at the 200-dma line to see who will gain control. Over the last several weeks, we have repeated one...
Market Corrects As COVID-19 Cases Surge 06-12-20
In this issue of “Market Corrects As COVID-19 Cases Surge:” Market Correction Short-Term Excesses Reversed A Note Of Fed Forecasts The Bear Case Is Still Valid Technical Review Remains Bullish Portfolio Positioning MacroView: Rationalizing High Valuations...
The US economy is showing signs of recovery
The US economy is showing some signs of recovery, albeit only modestly. First there were the May employment numbers which surprised everyone when they came in with a jobless rate of 13.3%, down from 14.7% in April. Then there was the GDP number at -5% for Q1. The...
The Stumble-Through Economy
We are on the horns of a dilemma, caught between the Scylla and Charybdis, a rock and a hard place, the devil and the deep blue sea, the anvil and the hammer. The walls are closing in. We’re in a tight spot. All those metaphors (I could list more but will spare you)...
Technically Speaking: It’s Time To Take On Defensive Positioning
With investors throwing investing caution to the wind, technically speaking, it’s time to take on defensive positioning. Such was the warning we discussed in this past weekend’s newsletter. To wit: “Regardless, the markets are bullish biased, and we...
Volatile market decline to soon begin
The reopening of the world economies last week and the headlines about every economist on the planet being wrong about Friday’s US jobs report resulted in a stock market buying stampede. Based on the total job gains representing only 21% of the US jobs lost since...
The Bull Is Back! Markets Charge As Economy Lags 06-05-20
In this issue of “The Bull Is Back! Markets Charge As Economy Lags” A Note About That Jobs Number Investors Are Too Optimistic Technical Review Portfolio Positioning MacroView: Rationalizing High Valuations Won’t Improve Outcomes Sector & Market...
Behind the scene look at May’s US job statistics
The US stock indices rallied today due to the US economy gaining 2.5 million jobs in May. Economists had been expecting a 2.5 million jobs decline. The unemployment rate came in at 13% vs. the projected 19%. However, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said...
COVID-19: A Data-Driven Analysis
Should you wear a mask in public? This seemingly simple question immediately generates emotional, political, and social anxiety. It is just one of many provocative questions COVID-19 is forcing upon us. They should be simple, data-driven policy issues but many are...
Bear Trader’s gains as high as 44% since March 2020
The Bear Trader, a trend trading algorithm that was spun off from the Bull & Bear Tracker to primarily trade inverse or short market index ETFs, enabled aggressive and conservative traders to make gains of 3.3% and 1.1% respectively for the month of May 2020. ...
Inflation, Stock Market’s worst nemesis on the horizon
My recent article pointed out that after adjusting for inflation, it took 30 years (or until 1959) for the stock market to recover to its 1929 high. The revelation prompted me to conduct additional empirical research on GDP and its components from 1929 to 1942. My...
Technically Speaking: Too Fast, Too Furious As Fed Liquidity Slows
Too fast, too furious. That describes the April/May advance following the fastest 30% decline in history. The reason was not an improvement in fundamentals, but a generation of investors front running Fed liquidity flows. Such should not be surprising as this is what...
Bull & Bear Tracker averaging 8% per month from July 2019 to May 2020
May 2020, was the 11th consecutive profitable month for the Bull & Bear Tracker’s (BBT) automated signals. The gain from utilizing BBT’s signals to trade the SPY and SH ETFs during May was 8.6% vs. 4.5% for the S&P 500. For the 11 months the BBT’s...
Are Investors Too Optimistic About A Recovery?
People tend to overlook the long-term damage being done to the economy. They think we will just have a "V" shaped recovery or a "U" shaped recovery, and things will be fine. I'm sorry, that is just not how it works. Recessions create output gaps, and those output gaps...
Market Breaks Above 200-DMA. Is The Bull Back? 05-30-20
In this issue of “Market Breaks Above 200-DMA, Are All-Time Highs Next?” Market Breaks Above 200-DMA Are Bulls TOO Optimistic Technical Review Portfolio Positioning MacroView: CFNAI Crashes Most On Record, Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager...
Economics in Orbit
The history of humanity, at least as taught in most schools, is really about two seemingly opposite forces: human innovation and human conflict. The same intelligence that lets us accomplish great things also sets us against each other. But sometimes, we rise above...
Technically Speaking: Defining The Market Using Long-Term Analysis
This past weekend, I asked if the decline in March was a bear market or just a big correction. The debate that ensued was polarizing, to say the least. However, defining the market using long-term analysis is essential in determining the current trend, potential...
Bear Market? Or Just A Big Correction? 05-22-20
In this issue of “Was This A Bear Market? Or Just A Big Correction?” Still Stuck In The Middle What Defines A “Real” Bear Market? A Growing List Of Concerns Portfolio Positioning MacroView: Why Jeremy Siegel Is Wrong About Bonds Sector &...
Rewinding the Tape
We finished the Virtual Strategic Investment Conference yesterday. I can honestly say it was simply the best conference I have ever attended or been privileged to host. The ability to bring together so many exciting speakers, something schedules would not have allowed...
US Market and GDP will not exceed recent highs until 2030
Based on the findings from my most recent empirical research, it will be at least 11 years before the US’ stock market and GDP climb back to above their recent all-time highs. Since the S&P 500, Dow and NASDAQ composites have rallied back from their March 2020...
Technically Speaking: Chase Momentum Until Fundamentals Matter
On Monday, the markets surged on hopes for a “virus vaccine” and encouraging words for the Federal Reserve that liquidity isn’t going away. Such puts us in the awkward position of having to chase market momentum, knowing fundamentals will eventually...
Stuck In The Middle As Seasonal Sell Signals Trigger 05-16-20
In this issue of “Stuck In The Middle As Seasonal Sell Signals Trigger:” View Of The Markets & Portfolio Positioning MacroView: Why Jeremy Siegel Is Wrong About Bonds Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook,...
Reflection Week
I knew this letter’s topic months ago. It was going to be a review of the Strategic Investment Conference, which would have just concluded fabulously in sunny Scottsdale. Well, something intervened. Coronavirus precautions kept us from having an in-person conference....
Fed can’t Fool Mother Nature!
The S&P 500’s rally from its March 2020 low to within 13.2% of its 2020 high has been primarily fueled by the US Federal Reserve’s monetary stimulus. The Fed has and continues to spend trillions to provide the economy with liquidity and to artificially prop up...
Economically Speaking: The Stock Market Is Not The Economy?
“The stock market is not the economy.” Such is the latest rationalization to support the “bull market” narrative. The question, however, is the validity of the statement. As I noted in this past weekend’s newsletter: “There is...
Why Assets Will Crash
The increasing concentration of the ownership of wealth/assets in the top 10% has an under-appreciated consequence: when only the top 10% can afford to buy assets, that unleashes an almost karmic payback for the narrowing of ownership, a.k.a. soaring wealth and income...
Depressionary Economy Vs. A Bull Market. Both Can’t Be Right.
The Great Divide: A Depressionary Economy Versus A Bull Market MacroView: “Savings Mirage” Won’t Save The Economy Financial Planning Corner: The Great Reset (Webinar) Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook,...
Bull & Bear Tracker S&P 500 core signals outperform S&P 500 for 7 out of 8 months
The Bull & Bear Tracker’s (BBT) core or automated signals to trade S&P 500’s SPY and SH ETFs outperformed the S&P 500 and also the BBT’s managed signals for the eight months ended February 29, 2020. The risk for BBT’s automated and its managed signals was...
Five Viral Lessons
We live in truly historic times. “There are decades when nothing happens, and weeks when decades happen,” says a quote usually attributed to Vladimir Lenin. It certainly fits now. For thousands of years, people who lived through what we call “history” didn’t realize...
Bear Trader, Short the Market Algo up 40.6% since March 2020
The Bear Trader, a trend trading algorithm that primarily trades inverse or short market index ETFs, enabled conservative and aggressive traders to make gains of 13.62% and 40.60% respectively from March 3, 2020, to April 30, 2020. The Bear Trader, which will soon be...
Technically Speaking: Will The Market Retest Lows This Summer?
Will the market retest lows this summer? In this past weekend’s commentary, I discussed the end of the seasonally strong period for the market. “Despite the sell-off on the last day of April, the Best Six Months has ended on a positive note, registering the best...
Market to Turn its Attention back to the Economy
On March 23rd in the darkest moments of the pandemic, I wrote an article called ‘light at the end of the corona virus tunnel’ in which I strongly believed that the market, after a bruising 34% decline in only a matter of weeks, had reached a bottom and it was time to...
April 2020, Bull & Bear Tracker’s 10th consecutive profitable month
April 2020, was the 10th consecutive month of gains for the Bull & Bear Tracker’s (BBT) automated signals. The gain from utilizing BBT’s automated signals to trade the SPY and SH ETFs during April was 15.1% vs. 12.7% for the S&P 500. For the 10 months the...
Prepare for the Era of Recrimination
To think that the economy is going to reaccelerate in the third quarter in a V-shaped recovery to the level where gross domestic product (GDP) was prior to the pandemic is unrealistic. Four years from now the economy will most likely recover to the same level of...
“Sell In May” Might Be A Good Risk Strategy This Year (Full Report)
“Sell In May” Might Be A Good Risk Strategy This Year MacroView: The Fed, Permanently Stuck At Zero Financial Planning Corner: 12-Steps To Retirement (Webinar) Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound...
The Figure-It-Out Economy
Market sentiment reflects human sentiment, which lately has been quite negative—understandably so, given the great uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus pandemic. A month ago, we didn’t know where all this was going but it was potentially serious. I can almost begin...
Interim relief rally highs for markets has or will soon occur
Based on the signals from the SCPA (crash statistical probability analyses) and the Bull & Bear Tracker algorithms its probable that the stock markets of the US and 12 other countries that have been crashing have reached or will soon reach their interim relief...
Market volatility to power 17% monthly gains through October 2022
Increased market volatility since February 2020, will power average monthly gains of 17% and cumulative gains of 500% from trading the long and short ETFs for the US and 12 other countries through October 2022 according to the SCPA algorithm. The markets of the 13...
Technically Speaking: Market Rises As The Economy Reopens
Market rises as the economy reopens. The question, however, is what happens next? While there has been much debate from the economic perspective, the market has risen in anticipation of the event. Is it an “all clear,” for the bulls, or are there still...
Worldwide 1930s Style Depression Has Begun!
SCPA (statistical crash probability analyses) forecast: 100% probability the first worldwide economic depression has begun! World and US economies to decline through at least 2023. These bold statements are based on statistical probability analyses of two new...
Market Stalls, Is The “Bear Market” Rally Over? – Full Report
Market Stalls, Is The Bear Market Rally Over? MacroView: This Time Might Be Different Financial Planning Corner: Top Planning Questions Answered Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Catch...
Viral Thoughts
We are looking at a world with parameters bounded by pure imagination; where we go from here is anyone's guess. —Will Thomson and Chip Russell, Massif Capital Today’s letter will be another hop-around review of the crisis landscape. I’ll touch on several topics...
Market Crash Forecasting algo breakthrough for all investors
The SCPA algorithm is a significant breakthrough for all investors. The potential for a market to crash, for a correction to become a crash, a crash’s intensity and post-crash events are now forecastable. Instead of riding out crashes, as was similarly the case for...
Fundamentally Speaking: Estimating The Earnings Crash
In early March, before the impact of the COVID-19 was fully understood, I penned an article suggesting that both corporate profits and S&P 500 earnings were suggesting the “bear market wasn’t over.” To wit: “Profit margins are probably the...
Bull & Bear Tracker Notice
The good news is that the cumulative gains for conservative traders trading the inverse SH ETF last week was 1.9% and for aggressive traders who traded the inverse SPXS last week was 6%.The bad news is that due to extremely volatile market conditions the signals in...
Market Rallies Into The “Resistance Zone” – Full Report
Market Rallies Into The “Resistance Zone” MacroView: This Time Might Be Different Financial Planning Corner: Top Planning Questions Answered Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking...
Repricing the World
The viral fog is starting to thin. US coronavirus case growth appears to be slowing, albeit at a tragically high level. Governments and businesses are thinking about the next stage. On the other hand, fog tends to return when the weather is right. Might this virus...
Bull & Bear Tracker subscriber notice
Due to markets becoming extremely volatile in March of 2020, the publishing of the Bull & Bear Tracker’s (BBT) signals has been extremely limited. The signals had been averaging a monthly return of 5%. since July 2019. See “Why the Bull & Bear Tracker exited...
Bull & Bear Tracker shatters all monthly records for March 2020
March 2020, was the Bull & Bear Tracker’s (BBT) best month for its published and also for its core or automated signals since the first signal was published in April 2018. The BBT’s published or managed signals for conservative traders to trade the S&P 500...
Technically Speaking: The Reward Doesn’t Justify The Risk
In this past weekend’s missive, I discussed the market’s completion of the 50% retracement. To wit: “From a purely technical basis, the extreme downside extension, and potential selling exhaustion, has set the markets up for a fairly strong reflexive...
Market Completes A 50% “Bear Market” Retracement (Full Report)
Market Completes A 50% Retracement MacroView: Is The “Debt Chasm” Too Big For The Fed To Fill Financial Planning Corner: Top Planning Questions Answered Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud,...
Month over month decline in Consumer confidence largest ever recorded
University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US fell to 71 in April from 89.1 in March, missing market expectations of 75 by a considerable margin. The April numbers are the lowest reading since December of 2011 and the largest monthly decline ever recorded. The...
Bending the Inflation Curve
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output. … A steady rate of monetary growth at a moderate level can provide a framework under which a...
Difference between market corrections and crashes
Due to my recent findings from researching the empirical data of prior market crashes since 1901, investors in the future will be able to distinguish a crash from a correction. All crashes and corrections can now be measured and categorized. The chart below for...
Technically Speaking: The 4-Phases Of A Full-Market Cycle
In a recent post, I discussed the “3-stages of a bear market.” To wit: “Yes, the market will rally, and likely substantially so. But, let me remind you of Bob Farrell’s Rule #8 from our recent newsletter: Bear markets have three stages – sharp...
Stock market relief rally high date extended
The date range for the SCPA’s forecasted relief rally highs for stock markets of the US, Japan, Germany, France, South Korea, and Canada to occur has been adjusted. Based on the adjustment the SCPA’s new 100% statistical probability is that the relief rally highs...
Major Technical Failures Confirms Bear Market Risk (Full Report)
Major Technical Failures Confirms Bear Market Risks MacroView: The 2020 Investment Summit Financial Planning Corner: Anatomy Of A Bear Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Catch Up On...
Notes from Lockdown
In times of change learners inherit the earth; while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists. —Eric Hoffer Greetings from Puerto Rico, where this frequent traveler is evidently home for an unusually long time. I want...
Markets now at tipping point; roller coaster ride will be epic
The market indices of the US, Japan, South Korea, Canada, France and Germany and the share prices for many of the world’s largest companies including Apple and Microsoft are at the tipping point. Stocks and indices reached their post-crash and relief rally closing...
Embrace the Bear!
Investors must embrace the bear. A savvy investor or advisor can generate significantly more profits from a secular bear than a secular bull. It’s also much easier to predict the behavior of a wild and vicious bear than a domesticated bull. The new 2020 secular...
The TRUTH about Dow’s “… Biggest One-Day Jump Since 1933”
The Wall Street Journal’s “Dow Soars More Than 11% in Biggest One-Day Jump Since 1933” was inaccurate. It should have read since “1929”. The article should have been about the Dow Jones industrials composite index having its best one day and three-day percentage...
Technically Speaking: 5-Questions Bulls Need To Answer Now.
In last Tuesday’s Technically Speaking post, I stated: “From a purely technical basis, the extreme downside extension, and potential selling exhaustion, has set the markets up for a fairly strong reflexive bounce. This is where fun with math comes in. As...
Futu Releases Solid Earnings to Shaky Market
Futu Holdings Ltd. (Nasdaq: FUTU), a leading tech-driven brokerage in China, reported positive results last Wednesday for 2019 and for the fourth quarter ending December 31. Top executives also made the case in an earnings call for strong growth in 2020, despite the...
BullsNBears.com adds China, Hong Kong to its research coverage
Since the markets for mainland China and Hong Kong have not broken their secular bull trend lines the “Emerging Markets” research category has been added to BullsNBears.com. The stock markets of mainland communist China and Hong Kong are the beneficiaries of the...
Bull Market? No, The Bear Still Rules For Now (Full Report)
Bull Market? No, The Bear Still Rules MacroView: The Fed Can’t Fix What’s Broken Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha 2020 Investment Summit – April 2nd. The “2020...
Postcards from the Frontline
Unprecedented events are happening so fast, I barely know where to start. But let’s begin with a small one, noticeable perhaps only to me. Over the years I’ve received thousands of reader emails responding to my letters. I read and appreciate them all, even the...
Crash event forecasting algo nails another one
In yesterday’s “Crash events forecasting also accurate at calling market tops and bottoms”, March 24, 2020, article the statistical crash probability analysis (SCPA) algorithm forecasted that the probability was 100% that the stock indices for the US, Japan, Germany,...
Crash events forecasting algo accurate at calling market tops and bottoms
The statistical crash probability analysis (SCPA) algorithm’s forecast for an interim market bottom to occur on March 23, 2020, was precisely accurate. It was the algo’s third consecutive precise major global markets call for March of 2020. The day after the...
Bull & Bear Tracker signal sell targets raised
My March 23, 2020, “Probability is 87% that market is at interim bottom” article contained the projected targets for eight global stock market indices upon a significant market rally occurring. Now that a powerful rally is now underway the targets have been...
Technically Speaking: Fed Goes All In. When’s The “Bear Market” Rally?
Let’s flashback to a time not so long ago, May 2019. “It was interesting to see Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, during an address to the Fernandina Beach banking conference, channel Ben Bernanke during his speech on corporate...
Light at the end of the Corona Virus Tunnel?
The SP500 has dropped 34% since its peak on February 20th amid the Corona Virus turmoil. I believe now is the time to begin buying stocks once again. We are in the midst of the greatest market panic comparable only to 1929, 1987, and 2008. The level of fear has...
Probability is 87% that market is at interim bottom
Based on my crash statistical probability analysis (SCPA) the probability is 87.5% that the stock markets of the US and the five other leading developed countries, which have been crashing since February 20, 2020, have reached an interim bottom. If the interim...
“No One Saw It Coming” – Should You Worry About The 10-Best Days
Pippa Stevens via CNBC recently had some advice: “Panic selling not only locks in losses, but also puts investors at risk for missing the market’s best days. Looking at data going back to 1930, Bank of America found that if an investor missed the S&P 500′s 10 best...
Bull & Bear Tracker’s performance, spectacular!
For the first 20 days of March 2020, the Bull & Bear Tracker’s back tested signals performance was spectacular. Utilizing the signals to day trade the unleveraged S&P 500 long (SPY) and short (SH) ETFs produced a cumulative gain of 41%. The trend trading...
Everyone Wanting To Buy Suggests The Bear Still Prowls (Full Report)
Everyone Wanting To Buy Suggests The Bear Still Prowls MacroView: Mnuchin & Kudlow Say No Recession? Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Catch Up On What You Missed Last Week NOTE:...
The Beacons Are Lit
In the film version of Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, there’s a three-minute scene you should watch or re-watch. It is relevant to our situation today. Gondor needed to light the beacons for aid. Click here for video. At the other end of the beacons,...
Coronavirus Is Not an Emergency. It’s a War.
This is a short midweek note, something I haven’t done for years. But as we all know, these are very special and difficult times. Below, I’ll give you two links. They describe the nature of the new coronavirus pandemic and its potential consequences. I have run this...
Technically Speaking: Risk Limits Hit, When Too Little Is Too Much
For the last several months, we have been issuing repeated warnings about the market. While such comments are often mistaken for “being bearish,” we have often stated it is our process of managing “risk” which is most important. Beginning in...
Dip buyers, beware of sensational headlines!
Many investors are salivating to trade the dips in a stock market which is becoming increasingly more volatile. It’s because Wall Street for the week ended March 13th according to the headlines had its worst week since 2008. Its human nature to want to buy at fire...
Market Crash. Is It Over, Or Is It The “Revenant”
Market Crash: Is It Over, Or Is It The Revenant? MacroView: Fed Launches A Bazooka To Kill A Virus Financial Planning Corner: Tips For A Volatile Market Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking...
Coronavirus Helicopter Money
I write this letter early Friday morning after a week in New York visiting with many fellow market participants. And lots of phone calls, both to analysts and medical experts. I had originally planned a completely different letter but circumstances changed. Humility...
Discovery of “Pathology of a Market Crash” reduces risks and losses
My discovery of the pathology of a market crash from my research on the evolution of hurricane forecasting is a significant breakthrough for all investors. Market crashes and their levels of intensity can now be forecasted. Instead of riding out crashes, as was...
March Madness: Having A Process For A Winning Outcome
We are coming upon that time of year when the markets play second fiddle to debates about which twelve seed could be this year’s Cinderella in the NCAA basketball tournament. For college basketball fans, this particular time of year is dubbed March Madness. The...
Technically Speaking: On The Cusp Of A Bear Market
“Tops are a process and bottoms are an event” Over the last couple of years, we have discussed the ongoing litany of issues which plagued the underbelly of the financial markets. The “corporate credit” markets are at risk of a wave of defaults. Earnings...
2020 Crash is equivalent to 3rd “Category 5 Hurricane” in 90 years! Get out of market today!
Based on my findings from researching empirical data from the Dow crash of 1929 and the NASDAQ dotcom bubble bursting in 2000, investors should immediately sell all of their holdings of mutual funds and all stock that are priced over $10 per share TODAY. This crash...
Why the Bull & Bear Tracker exited the market on March 3rd
Last week the Bull & Bear Tracker (BBT) exited the market on Tuesday, March 3, 2020 after producing a net gain of 1.4% for the week. The reasons why the tracker did not re-enter the market: Market was too volatile for text messaged instructions. During one...
Playing Defense: We Don’t Know What Happens Next
Playing Defense: We Don’t Know What Happens Next MacroView: Fed Emergency Cut Exposes “Recession” Risks Financial Planning Corner: Tips For A Volatile Market Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In,...
February US Jobs report a bright light in a dim room
The February non-farm payrolls were a welcome surprise as they rose by 273 thousand, the most sinceMarch 2018 and the unemployment rate dipped to 3.5% from 3.6%. It appears that the US economy isstill in good shape and quite a way off from entering recession...
US Stock Market to decline by another 22% by Easter
The simultaneous double-digit declines for the stock markets of four of the world’s developed countries from February 20 to February 28, 2020 was not only an historic event; but unfortunately, ominous in that it portends dire financial times ahead. Based on...
February 2020, Bull & Bear Tracker’s 8th consecutive profitable month
For February of 2020, the Bull & Bear Tracker’s aggressive trader signals produced a gain of 2.5% vs. an 8.7% decline for the S&P 500. Since June 30, 2019, the Bull & Bear Tracker: Averaged a monthly gain of above 5% Produced a cumulative gain of 45.5%...
Chinese Coronavirus Changeup
In baseball, there is a kind of pitch called the “changeup,” designed to look like a fastball while actually going slower. The deceived batter swings too soon and misses. Strike, you’re out. The world has thrown a wicked biological changeup at the global economy. This...
Overvalued stocks, freefalling US Dollar to soon cause epic market crash!
The root cause of the significant correction for the world stock market which will soon become an epic crash is not the Coronavirus. See also, my March 6, 2020 article “US Stock Market to decline by another 22% by Easter”. The causes of the correction which began on...
Technically Speaking: Sellable Rally, Or The Return Of The Bull?
Typically, “Technically Speaking,” is an analysis of Monday’s market action, and the relevant risk/reward dynamics for investors. However, this week, we need to update the strategy we lain out in this past weekend’s newsletter, “Market...
US economy resilient despite possible emergence of bear market
The stock market may have been in free fall last week, it seems to have caught itself today and has recovered, with the Dow up well over 1,000 points. Whether this turnaround will last and improve remains to be seen. Some stock analysts believe the market has moved...
Stock market, a buy at October lows
Glass Bead Capital Management (Glass Bead) warned our readers and investors on January 23rd that the market was vulnerable to a correction and that it would be wise to take profits. We had deduced that the probability was fairly high that the market would provide a...
Market Crash & Navigating What Happens Next 02-28-20
Market Crash & Navigating What Happens Next MacroView: The Ghosts Of 2018 Financial Planning Corner: Why Dave Ramsey Is Wrong On Life Insurance Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha...
COVID-19: A Crisis the Fed Can’t Fix
For the last 3+ years, I have maintained it would take an “exogenous” event to send the United States into recession. Historically suboptimal growth? Sure, but sub-3% growth isn’t a recession. The coronavirus obviously qualifies as an exogenous event. But that doesn’t...
Technically Speaking: Markets Start To Price In “Viral Impacts”
At the end of January, I wrote a piece titled “This Is Nuts: Why We Reduced Risk” discussing why we took profits in our portfolios. Here is the important point: “When you sit down with your portfolio management team, and the first comment made is...
Did The Market Just Get Infected?
Did The Market Just Get Infected? MacroView: Japan, The Fed, & The Limits Of QE Financial Planning Corner: Part 2: Dave Ramsey Is Wrong About Life Insurance Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud,...