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The Fed cuts base rate by 0.25 percentage points
It was no surprise today when the Fed cut its base rate by 25 basis points. It also was no surprise that President Trump immediately after the Fed announcement called Chairman Powell and the rest of the FOMC a bunch of cowards for not cutting rates more aggressively....
US economy is still doing OK
The US economy remains modestly positive. The latest figures on industrial production in August posted an uptick of 0.6% m/m and 0.4% y/y. Manufacturing production was down 0.4% y/y, up a little from a negative 0.5% the month before. And capacity utilization inched up...
Technically Speaking: The Risk Of A Liquidity Driven Event
Over the last few days, the internet has been abuzz with commentary about the spike in interest rates. Of course, the belief is that the spike in rates is “okay” because the market are still rising. “The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was poised for its...
Bull & Bear Tracker up 11% vs. S&P 500 loss in August
For the month of August, the Bull & Bear Tracker’s published signals produced a gain of 11.27% for aggressive traders who traded the S&P 500’s triple leveraged ETFs; symbols SPXS and SPXL. The gain for conservative traders trading the unleveraged ETFs;...
Bulls Regain The Narrative As They Want To Believe 09-06-19
Market Review & Update The Last Hoorah? They Want To Believe Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update Last week, we laid out 6-points about the market as the...
Technically Speaking: Just How Long Will Markets Keep “Buying” It?
In this past weekend’s newsletter, I broke down the bull/bear argument dissecting the issues of cash on the sidelines, extreme bearishness, equity outflows. However, even though the economic and fundamental environment is not supportive of asset prices at...
Breaking Down The Bull/Bear Argument
Market Review & Update Breaking Down The Bull/Bear Argument Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update Really! Another week of nowhere? This is the same chart...
Probability of no Brexit has increased
The drama over Brexit in the UK is by no means over. The new Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, just announced that he asked the Queen for a suspension of parliament and received approval from the sovereign. That means that parliament will convene October 14, the day of...
Technically Speaking: Market Risk Is Rising As Retail Sends Warning
I noted in this past weekend’s newsletter the pick up in volatility over the last few weeks has made investing in the market difficult. On Friday, the market plunged on new Trump was going to increase tariffs on China. Then on Monday, the markets rallied on...
Violent Volatility Dangerous to 2009 Bull
Due to the violent increase in volatility which occurred during August, the S&P 500 finds itself in an extremely vulnerable position for the last week of the summer of 2019. The volatility has increased the risk that the S&P 500 could decline by more than 100...
Where are you going market?
One seasoned trader just noted that he believes that many market participants right now are experiencing a down market for the first time during this prolonged bull market and as a result are getting pummeled. The crazy moves in the markets are not over and we will...
Powell Fails, Trump Rails & The Failure Of Negative Rates 08-23-19
Trump & Powell Square Off Negative Yields Everywhere Why The Fed Won’t Go Negative Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Trump & Powell Square Off Let’s start with a simple chart:...
Stock Buybacks Imperil Corporate Viability
Goldman Sachs just completed an analysis of corporate balance sheets and found that dividend and stock buybacks accounted for 103.8% of their free cash flow. Meaning that they were paying more out in cash than they had on hand! Over the last year, free cash flow has...
Mauldin – MMT Could Destroy This Nation
I am back from my 14th annual Maine fishing camp. The private event at Leen’s Lodge is generally called Camp Kotok in honor of David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors who started these outings many years ago. CNBC and others began calling it the “Shadow Fed,” but it is...
Housing Seems to be doing well
The US housing market looks a little better at the moment as existing home sales in July rose 2.5% after slipping 1.3% the month before. Sales of single family homes went up 2.8% against a 1.1% drop in June. Sales of condominiums were unchanged after declining 3.3% in...
Technically Speaking: This Is Still A “Sellable Rally”
In last Tuesday’s “Technical Update,” I wrote that on a very short-term basis the market had reversed the previously overbought condition, to oversold. “This could very well provide a short-term ‘sellable bounce’ in the market back...
Pay Attention To The Message The Yield Curve Is Sending 08-16-19
Quick Review Listen To The Yield Curve Message No One Ever Says Sell Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Quick Review Do you love #volatility yet? Last week the market swung wildly back...
Drop in August Consumer Sentiment supports Recession Fears
The chances of a recession later this year have increased again as consumer sentiment in August slumped to its lowest level since the beginning of 2019. The main factors contributing to the decline were the expected imposition of further tariffs on Chinese imports and...
Technically Speaking: 5 Reasons To Be Bullish (or Not) On Stocks
Just recently, Tom Lee, head of Fundstrat Global Advisors, published a list of 5-bullish signs for the stock investors which he says you should “ignore at your own peril.” As he notes: “In short, these signals are saying the S&P 500 is set up for...
Risk Happens Fast. Is The Selling Over? 08-09-19
Risk Happens Fast Is The Selling Over? Risk Happens Slowly, Too. Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Risk Happens Fast Over the last few weeks, we’ve been discussing the potential for a...
SEC Regulation T account maintenance requirements for trading Bull & Bear Tracker
On rare occasions when the stock market is extremely volatile the Bull & Bear Tracker’s signals can change more than once in a day. Wednesday August 7, 2019, was one of those rare days. The signal went from GREEN to RED on the open and back to GREEN at 3:40PM. ...
Bull & Bear Tracker morning signals delivery notice, August 8, 2019
Since the Bull & Bear Tracker’s first signal was published on April 9, 2018, the vast majority of all morning alerts have been sent out prior to the US market’s 9:30AM open. However, the timing for the sending of some of the morning alerts has changed...
Technically Speaking: Stocks In A Bloodbath, Look For A Sellable Rally
On Monday, stocks took a beating from rising trade tensions as China put the brakes on imports of agricultural products following Trumps latest tariff threat. As noted by the WSJ: “So much for a trade deal any time soon. Monday’s pain for U.S. investors...
Fed Rate Cut – Too Little, Too Late, As Trump Hikes Tariffs 08-02-19
Review & Market Update Risk Is Now Elevated Low Yields Don’t Support Higher Valuations Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update I am on vacation this week, but...
Technically Speaking: 5-Charts Invested Bears Are Watching Now
In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rather severe extensions of the market above both the longer-term bullish trend and the 200-dma. To wit: There is also just the simple issue that markets are very extended above their long-term trends, as shown...
Whistling Past The $70 Trillion Debt Graveyard 07-26-19
Review & Market Update Whistling Past The $70 Trillion Debt Graveyard The Real Crisis Is Coming Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Market Review & Update Last week, we discussed the setup for a near-term mean reversion because of the massive...
Technically Speaking: The Lessons Poker Can Teach You About Investing
Over the last couple of weeks, I have laid out the bull and bear case for the S&P 500 rising to 3300, and the case for the Fed to cut rates. In summary, the basic driver of the “bull market thesis” has essentially come down to Central Bank policy. This...
ChoiceTrade Shares, Ready to Rocket!
The share price of ChoiceTrade Holdings is getting ready to rocket from $1.70 to $30.00 per share. The holding company’s online broker subsidiary, ChoiceTrade has been operating since 2000. It conducts business in all 50 US states and in 58 countries. Over the...
Questions About The “Stellar” June Jobs Report (Which Also Confirm The Fed’s Concerns)
On Wednesday, Jerome Powell testified before Congress the U.S. economy is “suffering” from a bout of uncertainty caused by trade tensions and slow global growth. To wit: “Since [the Fed meeting in mid-June], based on incoming data and other developments, it appears...
Technically Speaking: Fed “Hopes” Spark Return Of Bullish Complacency
In this past weekend’s newsletter, I laid out the bull and bear case for the S&P 500 rising to 3300. In summary, the basic driver of the “bull market thesis” essentially boils down to Central Bank policy, as noted by the WSJ yesterday: “U.S. indices hit record...
Bull & Bear Tracker’s 32% versus S&P 500’s 13%, Not good enough!
For the April 9, 2018 through June 30, 2019 period, the Bull & Bear Tracker (BBT) produced a gain of 32.2% versus the S&P 500’s 13.2%. Even though the BBT’s performance was impressive, there was room to improve the algorithm’s accuracy while...
Technically Speaking: Monthly S&P 500 Chart Update & Review
With June now officially in the books, we can take a look at our long-term monthly indicators to see what they are telling us now. Does the recent breakout to “all-time highs” mean the bull market is finally back? Or, is this breakout doomed to failure as...
Technically Speaking: The Bull Is Back, Bonds Say “No”
For the fifth time, since the end of 2017. the market hit an all-time high. Each previous all-time high has led an almost immediate sell-off. Will this time be different? This was the question I asked last Tuesday: “Such is the belief currently which is being...
The “Art Of The Deal” Vs. The “Art Of War” 06-28-19
Review & Update The “Art Of The Deal” vs. The “Art Of War” Margin Debt & Market Reversions 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Review & Update On Thursday and Friday, the markets mustered a “Pre-G20...
Technically Speaking: Bull Market Or Bull Trap?
For the fourth time, since the end of 2017. the market has set an all-time high. Each previous all-time high has led an almost immediate sell-off. Will this time be different?Such is the belief currently which is being driven primarily by the “Pavlovian” response of a...
Technically Speaking: Bull Market Or Bull Trap?
For the fourth time, since the end of 2017. the market has set an all-time high. Each previous all-time high has led an almost immediate sell-off. Will this time be different? Such is the belief currently which is being driven primarily by the “Pavlovian”...
Technically Speaking: COT Positioning – Volatility, Oil, Dollar, & Rates
Over the last three weeks, we have discussed the “sellable rally” in the markets. However, one of the more stunning movements in the market was in interest rates which have fallen sharply in recent months as “deflation” and “economic...
Technically Speaking: The “Sellable Rally” Chart Review
Over the past couple of weeks, we have been discussing a “sellable rally” following the sell-off during the month of May. To wit: “This week we are going to look at the recent sell-off and the potential for a short-term ‘sellable’ rally to rebalance...
Technically Speaking: Tops Are Processes, Bottoms Are Events
In April of 2018, I posted an article laying out 10-reasons why the “bull market” had likely ended for a while. To wit: “I highly suggest you use any substantial rally to reduce risk and rebalance portfolios accordingly. Why? Because I am going to...
Technically Speaking: Rothschild’s Investing Rule
Since the markets were closed yesterday for “Memorial Day,” there isn’t much for us to update technically from this past weekend’s missive. However, I did provide an update yesterday for our RIAPRO subscribers (Try 30-days FREE) with...
Technically Speaking: The Drums Of Trade War – Part Deux
In June of 2018, as the initial rounds of the “Trade War” were heating up, I wrote: “Next week, the Trump Administration will announce $50 billion in ‘tariffs’ on Chinese products. The trade war remains a risk to the markets in the short-term.”...
Technically Speaking: “‘Trade War’ In May & Go Away.”
Over the weekend, President Trump decided to reignite the “trade war” with China with two incendiary tweets. Via WSJ: “In a pair of Twitter messages Sunday, Mr. Trump wrote he planned to raise levies on $200 billion in Chinese imports to 25% starting...
Technically Speaking: A Warning About Chasing This Bull Market
This past weekend, we discussed the breakout of the markets to all-time highs. The question I asked this past weekend was simply; “The bull market is back, but can it stay?” When I was growing up my father, probably much like yours, had pearls of wisdom...
Technically Speaking: Running On Empty
Stop by Apple Or Google Play stores and search “MyWorth” TODAY. Running On Empty “Running On Empty” was an iconic song about life on the…
Technically Speaking: Drive For Show
We Still Need You… We are closing in on our goal for our beta trial and your help is MOST appreciated. Just go to Apple…
Experience Is The Only Cure 04-06-19
Market Review – The Run For The Highs Continues Experience Is The Only Cure Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter,…
Record Low Unemployment Benefits Signal For Great March Jobs Report
The big story in economic developments for the US is the latest report on initial unemployment filings. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to their lowest level 49 years, since the week ended December 6th 1969. This is a...
Technically Speaking: Do You Really Want To Be Out?
Personal Request: We are almost to our goal…don’t miss out! We recently launched a beta version of our new Financial Health App backed by the…
Technically Speaking: Are We Going To New Highs?
Personal Request: I still need your help with a new project. We recently launched a beta version of our new Financial Health App backed by…
Technically Speaking: A Different Way To Look At Market Cycles
Personal Request: I need your assistance with a new project. We have recently launched a beta version of our new Financial Health App backed by…
Technically Speaking: Will The Next Decade Be As Good As The Last?
In this past weekend’s newsletter we stated: “This short-term oversold condition, and holding of minor support, does set the market up for a bounce next…
Passage of Farm Bill Doubled projected size of US Cannabis industry Overnight
The 2018 Farm Bill which was signed by President Trump on December 20, 2018, will double the projected size of the cannabis industry from $20 billion to $40 billion by 2022. The federal legalization of hemp and CBD in the United States has created an...
“Wealth Sharing” financing strategy was key to UBER’s success
The three leading US based sharing economy companies are anticipated to launch their IPOs during 2019. Lyft in being the first to file its IPO registration statement last week will likely be the first to launch an IPO even though it was founded after UBER...
Technically Speaking: Monthly Chart Review Yields Bearish Signals
With the month of February now officially in the books, we can take a look at our long-term monthly indicators to see what they are…
Technically Speaking: Sell Today? Risk Vs. FOMO
The market is downright bullish. There is little reason to argue the point given the bullish trend since the December 24th lows. Of course, such…
Technically Speaking: You Carry An Umbrella In Case It Rains
With the markets closed yesterday, it gives us a chance to review the short, intermediate, and long-term signals the markets are currently sending. Brett Arends…
Brexit is likely to happen, but at what cost.
Brexit is still on course, but it is far from clear that it will actually happen. What could stop Brexit from happening is unclear. The Brexit day is now a mere 45 days off. In the meantime, PM Theresa May and her conservatives keep moving in circles with nothing...
Technically Speaking: Stuck In The Middle With You
In this past weekend’s missive, we discussed the market stalling at the 200-dma. To wit: “We said then the most likely target for the rally…
Economics on Gilligan’s Island
Economics on Gilligan’s Island Famed economist Henry Hazlitt wrote the economics classic, Economics in One Lesson: The Shortest and Surest Way to Understand Basic Economics.…
MMT Sounds Great In Theory…But
If you haven’t heard about Modern Monetary Theory, or “MMT” for short, by now, you will soon. It is highly likely that MMT will be…
Technically Speaking: Too Fast, Too Furious
On December 25th, I penned “My Christmas Wish” where in I stated that is was “now or never” for the bulls to make a stand.…
Fed Kills The Bear…For Now 02-01-19
The full newsletter will return next week. Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha It’s 4:40am on Friday morning and I am sitting…
Technically Speaking: Can The Fed’s Reversal Save The Bull?
As we discussed in this past weekend’s missive: “A WSJ article suggesting that the Fed would not only stop hiking interest rates but also cease the balance…
Asset Bubbles Are Making Davos Billionaires Richer
The global elite are meeting in Davos, Switzerland this week and are richer than ever. Bloomberg reports – A decade after the financial crisis poured…
The Economy IS Slowing
The problem when it comes to blindly investing in markets without a thorough understanding of underlying dynamics is much the same as playing “leapfrog with a…
What is next in the Brexit battle?
Apparently there are several options. The most obvious and easiest is for the UK to reverse its position on Article 50 of the EU charter and simply end the whole Brexit effort. That would mean that the whole exercise ends immediately. The other options will take more...
Technically Speaking: Bull Or Bear? Comparing Views
As the trumpets sound to signal the start of earnings season, the battle between fundamentals and “hope” begins. While earnings expectations have weakened markedly in recent months,…
Understanding Market Cycles
I was digging through some old charts over the weekend and stumbled across this gem from AlphaTrends which explains the “best time to buy stocks.” “Is it…
Retail slump is pointing to a recession is on its way
The possibility of a deep recession in the US in the months ahead is now almost a foregone conclusion. In the US retail establishments in the post-Christmas period are struggling to keep their doors open. Indeed several major retailers, including Sears (which is in...
Technically Speaking: Return Of The Bull Or Dead Cat Bounce
“No animals were harmed during the writing of this article.” If you listen to the media, the shocking and totally unexpected downturn last was unable…
Does $97,000 Matter To You?
With the year 2018 in the books, we know the S&P 500, including dividends, has produced a meager 4.86% annualized return from the year 2000. That…
Are We In A Secular Bull Market?
Just recently, Jeff Saut from Raymond James made a very interesting statement with respect to the recent market decline. “Speaking to last week’s Dow Theory sell…
The Market Is Still In A Confirmed Downtrend
The U.S. stock market surged on Friday after a strong jobs report and dovish comments from Fed chair Jerome Powell. The Dow jumped 764.94 points…
The Problem With Wall Street’s Forecasts
The problem when it comes to blindly investing in markets without a thorough understanding of underlying dynamics is much the same as playing “leapfrog with a…
Bear Market Awareness Checklist
Bear markets characteristically align with economic contraction. In his seminal tome – “Anatomy of the Bear – Lessons from Wall Street’s Four Great Bottoms,” which…
Spooked By Apple? Wait ‘Til China’s Bubble Bursts
Apple stock plunged nearly 10% on Thursday after the company cut its revenue forecast due to slowing iPhone sales in China. Apple’s woes dragged U.S.…
The Biggest Threat To The Market – Loss Of Confidence
Yesterday, saw a record surge in the markets. Such was not surprising given the extreme oversold condition in the market. More importantly, throughout market history, the…
Bears Getting Bullish On Boxing Day
On the day after Christmas when investors were sad with the coal they found in their stockings, Santa provided some Boxing Day cheer. The S&P…
Waning Consumer confidence and weakening global economic data does not bode well for 2019
What is coming our way in 2019? A significant recession is very much in the cards. Important economic indicators are pointing in that direction. The most recent release of consumer confidence by the Conference Board showed that American households expect a...
Kass: 10-Surprises Which Could Spike The Market 5% In One Day
“Look up and not down; look out and not in; look forward and not back, and lend a hand.” – Edward Everett Hale Make no mistake about…
With Record XMAS Eve Decline, Bear Market Now Official: Temporary bottom 10% lower
The S&P 500 officially entered into a bear market after a December 24th record decline of 2.7%. Prior to December 24, 2018, there had never been a prior Christmas Eve decline of even 1%. The decline of 15% for December puts the month on pace to...
Weekend Reading: Last Chance For Santa Claus
So far, the month of December has sucked. From Powell to Gundlach, to Trump, and a falling oil prices, there hasn’t been much “holiday cheer…”…
Gundlach’s Remarks Mean It’s Time To Check Your Allocation
“This is a capital preservation market.” So says Jeffrey Gundlach who can’t argue with anyone who wants to invest in the 2-Year U.S. Treasury, currently…
A Major Technical Breakdown Just Occurred In Stocks
The much-anticipated December Fed meeting has finally come and gone, and the stock market did not like what it heard. The Fed raised rates by…
What You Need To Know About Bear Markets
The bullish pundits of the Twittersphere; the pros who never met a stock market they didn’t like, grow increasingly quiet at these times; or masterfully…
You Have A “Trading” Problem – 10 Steps To Fix It
In April of 2018, I wrote an article entitled “10-Reasons The Bull Market Ended In 2018” in which I concluded: “There is a reasonably high possibility,…
Here Are The Key Levels To Watch In The S&P 500
With all of the incessant market gyrations this year, most traders and investors are going into the end of the year extremely confused. The simple…
What Your Advisor Believes (And Why You Should Question It)
Chances are your financial advisor believes in two related intellectual theories that you should question them about. In a recent article, the excellent columnist Brett…
Technically Speaking: Has “BTFD” Become “STFR”
Kevin Wilson recently penned a piece for Seeking Alpha that made a great point about where the markets are currently. To wit: “Famous market observer…
Weekend Reading: Did The Grinch Steal The Christmas Rally?
On Tuesday, we put on a small S&P 500 trading position for an oversold bounce. At first, it didn’t work and we were almost stopped out,…
Why Another 50% Correction Is Possible
All of sudden….volatility. Well, that is what it seems like anyway after several years of a steady grind higher in the markets. However, despite the…
December 6, 2018: Final day in life of 2009 secular bull?
Thursday December 6th may have been the final day in the life of the secular bull market. Based on the S&P 500’s price and volume on the December 6th close and the December 7th open as depicted in the chart below it appears that the bull market which...
Technically Speaking: “Will Santa Visit Broad & Wall?”
In this past weekend’s missive, “Stuck In The Middle (Range) With You,” I discussed the view from John Murphy via Stockcharts.com that the S&P 500 may have more downside to…
Technically Speaking: Is The Bull Back, Or Is It A “Bull Trap?”
In this past weekend’s missive, “Did The Powell Put Change Anything?,” I discussed the surge in the market following Jerome Powell’s change of stance on Fed policy…
Powerful year end Stock Market Rally coming based on market bottoming indicators
The S&P 500 rallied sharply yesterday on news that the Federal Reserve has become more dovish. However, the stock market was well positioned to begin a significant year-end rally anyway for these reasons: The S&P 500 successfully passed its retest of its...
Technically Speaking: The Difference Between A Bull & Bear Market
Wall Street loves to label stuff. When markets are rising it’s a “bull market.” Conversely, falling prices are a “bear market.” Interestingly, while there are…
Why Another Volatility Spike May Be Ahead
In early October, when the U.S. stock market had reached an all-time high and investor sentiment was extremely complacent, I published a warning in Forbes called “Why Another Market Volatility Surge Is Likely Ahead.” I showed three indicators that I believed pointed...
Bad News for US Economy Piling on
More bad news for the US economy and for much of the rest of the world is now occurring and much more frequently. A good indicator of things to come for the US economy is the housing market. The latest release of the NAHB Housing Market Index...
Technically Speaking: Why This Market Is Incurring A “Revision Of Belief”
Last year, I penned an article titled: “It’s a Turkey Market” and with Thanksgiving just a couple of days away, I thought it was an apropos time…
Which Smart Beta Was Smartest in October?
It’s no secret that October was a bad month for stocks. The S&P 500 Index dropped nearly 7%, including dividends. Granted, the index still had…
Weekend Reading: Why This Isn’t “THE” Bear Market…Yet
After two significant corrections during 2018, this has to be the beginning of a “bear market,” right? It certainly is possible given the headwinds that…
How The Bubbles In Stocks And Corporate Bonds Will Burst
As someone who has been warning heavily about dangerous bubbles in U.S. corporate bonds and stocks, people often ask me how and when I foresee…
Technically Speaking: Major Markets Are All Flashing Warning Signs
In this past weekend’s newsletter, I touched on the outcome of the mid-term elections and why it would likely not be as optimistic as the…
Bull & Bear Tracker Gorging on Market Volatility
Based on the Bull & Bear Tracker’s back tested results the algorithm has been gorging on market volatility. During the months of January, February, March and October of 2018, which featured some of the worst days for the stock market since the...
The Tailwinds To The Bull Market Have Shifted
In last Tuesday’s technical update, I discussed why a rally last week was highly probable from a psychological, technical, fundamental, and seasonal perspective. However, the…
Technically Speaking: Election Day & What Happens Next
This article contains some thoughts in regards to tonight’s election results. RIA Pro customers will receive a cheat sheet today in which 3 election scenarios…
Bull & Bear Tracker Now GREEN; Coast is Clear for foreseeable Future
Based on the Bull & Bear Tracker’s signal going to GREEN from RED before the market’s close on Friday November 2nd market volatility is likely to decline for the US midterm elections and the foreseeable future. Since there are typically...
Technically Speaking: A Sellable Rally?
In this past weekend’s revised newsletter format, I noted the markets were due for an oversold rally. To wit: “While technically there is a weekly…
Market Gets Crash(ier) 10-26-18
Newsletter Changes Markets Get Crash(ier) Actions To Take Next Week Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking…
GDP and University of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey down slightly
Economic growth in the US is still good, but it has shown some deterioration of late. GDP growth in the third quarter of 2018 was up 3.5% q/q, off from the 4.2% advance recorded in Q2. The increase in real GDP reflected contributions from personal...
Amazon and Google cast daggers into heart of Bull
After a relief rally for the major indices today the October crash will resume in full force tomorrow. Amazon and Alphabet both reported their third quarter earnings after the market’s close today. They both missed their estimates. Amazon reduced their...
US housing markets continue their decline
The housing market has deteriorated further in September. Sales of new single-family houses in the US fell 5.5% m/m to 553 thousand, following a downwardly revised 3.0% decline in August. It is the lowest rate since December 2016 and is worse than market...
Tariffs caused Crash of 1929 and will cause next Market Crash
October 23rd is the 89th anniversary for the 1st day of the Crash of 1929 The Smoot Hawley Tariff was the cause of the crash of 1929 which commenced 89 years ago on October 23, 1929. The legislative process that the Smoot-Hawley tariff underwent...
Technically Speaking: Risk Of A Bigger Correction Rising
Update: This article was update post-market open to account for early decline. In this past weekend’s missive “Market’s Cling To Support,” I noted the early February…
Market correction which began on October 10th is NOT over
The market correction which began on October 10 is far from over. The lifting of the restrictions for share buybacks by corporations who are reporting earnings for their fiscal periods ended September 30 will not matter. Two things happened during the...
Remarkable predictions made by founder of BullsNBears’ in TV interview
Read SpotLight Television’s press release entitled “Visionary Market Analyst Michael Markowski Predicted the third largest drop in Dow history” about the founder and Director of Research of BullsNBears.com. Its reveals the details about the predictions for the...
More evidence of economic trouble ahead
The latest numbers on housing are further evidence of a weakening US economy in the months ahead. September existing home sales fell 3.4% following a 2% drop in August. The September sales number is the smallest since November 2015. Part of the problem with sales is...
More Stats Point to a Slowing US economy
More statistics pointing to a slowdown in the US economy: September housing starts in the US dropped 5.3% from a month earlier, after a 7.1% gain in August. Starts in the South declined due in part to Hurricane Florence. Building permits dipped 0.6% after a dramatic...
Signal for Bull & Bear Tracker Now GREEN
The signal for the Bull & Bear Tracker has gone from RED to GREEN. The market crash that had been underway since October 10th has been abated. Those who participated in my strategy which I outlined in my October 5, 2018, article entitled “Perfect...
Visionary Market Analyst Michael Markowski Predicted the Third-Largest Drop in Dow’s History
Click to read Press Release by Spotlight Television: Visionary Market Analyst Michael Markowski Predicted the Third-Largest Drop in Dow's History
Let’s Be Like Japan
There has been a lot of angst lately over the rise in interest rates and the question of whether the government will be able to…
Tuesday’s Big upside move was a Sucker Rally
On Tuesday October 16th the S&P 500 rallied by 59 points and increased by 2.15% on the news that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley beat their third quarter earnings estimates. However, the advance was most likely a sucker rally. Tuesday’s volume of...
Retail sales and US economy update
Activity in the domestic US economy during September was modestly positive as retail sales in September rose a mere 0.1% m/m and 4.7% y/y. This compares with a 0.1% monthly increase in August and a 6.5% year-on-year advance. These numbers are not surprising...
Technically Speaking: Is A Year-End Rally Still Possible?
For the last few months, we have repeatedly warned about the mounting risks which were being ignored by an increasingly overly complacent, overly exuberant market.…
Perfect Storm for Market to Continue; Bull & Bear Tracker’s Crash signal up 14%
The perfect storm I predicted in my Friday, October 5th article entitled, “Perfect Storm Brewing for Possible Market Crash Next Week” which caused a decline of 4.1% for the S&P 500 last week is going to rage on until the end of October. The Bull &...
VLOG: Why The Stock Market Is Heading For Disaster
In this presentation, Clarity Financial’s economic analyst Jesse Colombo explains why the U.S. stock market is experiencing a dangerous bubble that is going to burst…
Technically Speaking: Update – Markets Fail To Hold Support
This is a short update to Tuesday’s Technically Speaking post. In that post, I stated: “In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the fact the…
Day of Reckoning Approaching for Market
A day of reckoning is approaching for the US stock market. The market’s math simply does not add up. The math not adding up was why I recommended to all the readers of my September 2007, Equities Magazine column to get out of the five largest brokers...
Technically Speaking: Markets Cling To Support
In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the fact the markets had finally awoken to the reality that rates have once again broken above 3%.…
Significant Correction and Bear Market predicted by Q1 by respected institutional analyst
On Friday October 5th, Bloomberg reported that Stifel Nicholas’ institutional equities strategist Barry Bannister predicted that the S&P 500 will be in a bear market by the end of the first quarter of 2019. Mr. Bannister in late January 2018, was the...
Perfect Storm Brewing for Possible Market Crash Next Week
Due to the stock market’s trading action for the first half of today, the probability has increased that the stock market could enter next week into a serious correction or even a crash. There are three reasons. Two of them are covered in my October 3rd...
Market Vulnerable due to Buyback Blackout; Bull & Bear Tracker signal now RED
The signal for the Bull & Bear Tracker is now RED. A market crash is now underway that will result in October being the worst month for the stock market during the Trump Presidency. According to a Wall Street Journal September 19, 2018, article...
Nobel Laureate Shiller says Current Market is Eerily similar to late 1920s
Robert Shiller, professor of economics at Yale University and a Nobel laureate, says the steep run-up in this market rally is similar to the excesses of the 1920s before the October 1929 market crash and Great Depression. Professor Shiller in his CNBC...
Frenzied Market Blow Off Underway
A frenzied blow off for the stock market and especially the Dow Jones Industrial composite index is underway. Investors are selling everything that is not tied down to pour their money into the index which houses 30 of the world’s largest companies....
Technically Speaking: Irrational Exuberance?
On December 5th, 1996, during a televised speech then Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan stated: “Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and…
The Risk Of An ETF Driven Liquidity Crash
Last week, James Rickards posted an interesting article discussing the risk to the financial markets from the rise in passive indexing. To wit: “Free riding…
Cash Balances in Retail Brokerage Accounts at 14 year low
Cash Balances as a percentage of assets in Charles Schwab’s brokerage accounts fell to 10.4 percent as of the end of August 2018. This matched the level in January which been the lowest since 2004. The S&P 500 has increased for six consecutive months...
Tariffs showing up in consumer sentiment surveys
According to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index the US economy remains in good stead. The index in September topped 100, only the third time since 2004. Noteworthy is that the bottom third of households had an index of 96.3, the highest...
Weekend Reading: Fiscal Irresponsibility
Without much fanfare or public discussion, Congress has decided to push the U.S. into deeper fiscal responsibility. Earlier this week, the House passed another Continuing…
The Two Biggest Threats To This Bull Market
This bull market seems unstoppable. Regardless of short-term events, investors have quickly looked beyond those risks to in a bid to push stock prices higher.…
Technically Speaking: Can You “Feel” The Complacency?
Yesterday, the market sold off modestly over continuing concerns of “tariffs” and trade wars. At least that was the headline reason. The real reason was…
Party Like It’s 1992?
Last week, Mark Hulbert warned of an indicator that hasn’t been this inflated since the “Dot.com” bubble. To wit: “It’s been more than 25 years…
How Brexit’s Issues could negatively impact US stocks
Brexit talks are not progressing well. At the Salzburg summit Prime Minister May was rudely rebuffed for her demands of a more rapid response to the UK’s proposals for post-Brexit arrangements. The PM did not help herself by being “difficult” with the EU...
NY Post: “Next Crash will be Worse than the Great Depression: experts” is must read
The September 22, 2018, article entitled “Next Crash will be Worse than the Great Depression: experts” is a must read. The article contains predictions from Wall Streeter Peter Schiff who was unsuccessful in his bid to become a US Senator in 2010. Even...
Bulls Charge To All-Time Highs 09-21-18
Bulls Push To All-Time Highs Get out your party hats ladies and gentlemen, the markets hit all-time highs this past week. After increasing equity exposure in portfolios on the 11th, as the markets pulled back to the previous break-out support levels, I suggested a...
Why Kavanaugh not being approved could negatively impact the market
The elimination of Brett Kavanaugh from consideration to become a justice on the US Supreme Court will negatively impact the market. Should this happen the Democratic party will become highly motivated to generate a huge turnout of Democrats for the...
Technically Speaking: The World Diverges From The US
In our last installment of Technically Speaking, we discussed the current bullish trend and our price target of 3000 by year end. To wit: “Regardless…
Brexit is approaching fast
The UK continues to struggle in its efforts to come up with the right Brexit formula for a deal with the EU as there are just 193 days left before the due date. Prime Minister Theresa May has signaled that she will be the difficult woman she advertised she will be in...
Enron, Lehman, Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Shared Same Bankruptcy Trait
Enron, Lehman, Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Shared Same Bankruptcy Trait Today is the 10th anniversary of Lehman’s September 15, 2008 bankruptcy filing. Below are the anniversary dates for other four of US’s five largest...
Kass: The Bullish Bias Resounds
This morning the futures (S&P and Nasdaq) are, as is the custom, higher. The markets continue to ignore a number of cautionary signposts/macroeconomic events/concerns and…
Dark clouds forming on the horizon
Growth is strong worldwide but there are increasing signs of economic trouble ahead, most of it based on the Trump tariffs, which are about to kick in. Pushback has begun, but it is still modest. China has indicated it will introduce countervailing duties on a wide...
Goldman Sachs’ Bear/Crash Indicator at highest level since 1969
An indicator that was developed by Goldman Sachs which measures future bear-market risk has risen to its highest level in 50 years. Goldman’s Bull/Bear Index, which is based on the metrics below is at its highest level since 1969. Equities valuations...
Brexit, Potential Wild Card for Markets
There are only seven months left until the UK will leave the European Union. Prime Minister (“PM”) Theresa May has not yet found the formula she needs to take this step and internal negotiations remain in disarray. Right now, the UK will leave the EU without any...
Take advantage of Overstock.com’s Share Price Weakness
Investors and traders should give serious consideration to take advantage of the weakness in Overstock.com’s share price which has been caused by short sellers. Overstock’s shares will soon resume the upward momentum that they had after the company made...
Dangerous Months of September & October Await Markets
After Labor Day the markets will enter the treacherous September/October time period. Since 1950, the month of September has produced a decline for all of the major indices. October is a month known for crashes. The reason why September has historically...
World Economy Stalling
The economic numbers for the US remain positive, albeit they are weakening. The latest statistics are initial jobless claims for the week ending August 25 and personal income and spending for July. The jobless claims rose slightly for the week and the income/spending...
Recent New all-time highs for Indices is Suspect
Two of the three major US indices including the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ closed at all-time new highs yesterday. However, the new all-time highs being an indicator that the 2009 secular bull is still alive and that the indices will continue on to newer...
GDP growth for Q2 surprisingly strong. Will that be a trend for the rest of 2018?
Growth in the US remains strong. The second estimate for GDP growth in Q2 came in at 4.2%, up sharply from 2.2% in Q1. It was slightly higher than the initial reading of 4.1%. The result primarily reflects upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and...
Confusing Economic Stats
The economic news these days is anything but clear and informative. It is mainly confusing and contradictory. The latest information on consumer confidence is both positive and negative with the Conference Board reporting the best numbers in almost 18 years. Meanwhile...
Durable goods orders further confirmation of US economy slowing
Durable goods orders in July declined 1.7% from a month earlier, following a downwardly revised 0.7% advance in June and compared with market expectations of a 0.5% drop. Transportation equipment drove the decrease as volatile demand for civilian aircraft fell....
Housing and Consumer Confidence both Weakening
According to today’s housing report from the US Commerce department new single-family home sales in July declined by 1.7% to the lowest level since October 2017. Sales in the South declined by 3.3%. Sales in...
Crypto to benefit from three fiat currencies on the brink
The collapses of the currencies of three emerging markets countries justify the existence and the growth for cryptocurrencies. The currencies of Venezuela, Turkey and Argentina have been in the news lately for falling to new lows against the dollar and the other...
Consumer Sentiment Declines for 4th consecutive month
According to the most recent August 2018, University of Michigan Survey, Consumer Sentiment declined to 95.3. The decline was the fourth consecutive monthly decline. In April of 2018, the index had reached and had peaked at 100.0 for the first...
Turmoil in Turkey to Continue
The Turkish lira crisis is by no means over. Today, the lira at the start of the trading day plunged further and has recovered somewhat since then. The crisis will not be over until the government takes some drastic steps to curb inflation and President...
tZERO to Drive Overstock.com Shares Higher
Overstock.com’s share price has the potential to significantly outperform the market in the foreseeable future. Since it owns 80% of tZERO, Overstock.com shares are the only publicly traded “regulated” crypto infrastructure pure play for investors. ...
Overstock.com shares to reach record high by end of 2018
Overstock.com’s share price has the potential to exceed its January 2018, all-time high of $84.35 by year-end 2018. Should that happen Overstock.com’s price would increase by 136%% from its most recent share price of $36. This prediction is not...
Musk’s taking Tesla private Tweet is Kiss of Death
With his tweet about his taking Tesla private for $420 per share Tesla CEO Elon Musk may have unwittingly given Tesla his kiss of death. If Musk is serious about taking the company private it will soon lose its most valuable asset which is its loyal...
Higher US rates a good possibility
The latest GDP growth number of 4.1% in Q2 could well be an anomaly, although quite a few bankers and analysts are pointing to continued fair-weather. The latest thing that investors should be concerned about is a comment by JPMorgan’s CEO Jamie Diamonds who...
Tesla’s Unproven Business Model is Next Big RISK
Last night (08/01/18) Tesla reported its financials for its quarter and six months ended June 30, 2018. Short sellers had been hoping that Tesla’s negative cash flow and cash position would come in below analyst’s expectations. That did not happen....
State of the economy assessment
It is not entirely clear what President Trump wants to achieve with his various initiatives both domestically and internationally. It is clear that he wants to disentangle himself from the Muller investigations. It is not so clear what he...
Bull & Bear Tracker’s signal back to GREEN
The signal for the Bull & Bear Tracker is now GREEN. The signal had been RED since July 20, 2018. See Equities article “Signal for Bull & Bear Tracker has gone RED”. The signal switched from RED to GREEN due to the volatility between the US...
Crypto Security Tokens of Overstock.com subsidiary, tZERO should be aggressively purchased NOW!
When the tZERO’s $250 million crypto security token offering closes on August 6, 2018, it will become the de facto leader of the global crypto infrastructure industry. The price of its tokens will multiply in 2019. The share price of Overstock.com (OSTK),...
Tech Stock Armageddon to Begin
Facebook shares plummeted by 23% in after-hours trading when the company reported its quarterly earnings and held its conference call after the market closed. The company’s revenue and active users came in below analyst estimates. The big miss is the...
Tough times ahead for the housing market
New single-family home sales in June declined 5.3% month to month vs. a 3.9% increase the month before. This is the lowest level since October 2017. The home sales numbers are in line with the general weakening in economic activity. The median...
Another Sign that US economy may be softening
The US economy is showing more signs of softening. The latest signal was the housing market which posted its third monthly existing home sales decline. On a monthly basis home sales in June declined 0.6% after declining 0.4% in May. Home sales fell to $5.38 million...
Signal for Bull & Bear Tracker has gone RED
The signal for the Bull & Bear Tracker has gone to RED. The signal had been GREEN since June 1, 2018. See my article “Two signal changes for Bull & Bear Tracker since May 23rd”. The signal switched from GREEN to RED due to the volatility of the...
Who is benefitting and who is losing from New Digital Sales Tax
Its been a month since the United States Supreme Court ruled to allow US States and municipalities to collect sales taxes from products and services that are purchased from online sellers. Over the last 20 trading days the shares of Wal-Mart increased by...
Consumer Sentiment Survey Leading stock market and economic indicator
The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment survey which has been published since 1960 is a great barometer that can be utilized to predict recessions, economic recoveries and also secular bull and bear markets. As depicted by the chart below the...
Tweets by Lawyer Fighting Tesla Very Telling
On Friday July 13, 2018, Stuart Meissner, an attorney representing a Tesla whistle blower put out the following tweet about Tesla. When Mr. Meissner was asked as to whether he was short Tesla’s shares he stated that he did not but should based on what he...
Tesla China Announcement and Timing Suspect
Tesla’s share price increased by $4.00 and by approximately 1% on Tuesday July 10, 2018, after the company announced that it had entered into a memo of understanding with the Shanghai government to build a factory to produce 500,000 autos per year in China...
More signs of economic contraction everywhere
More signs of economic contraction are emerging daily. Today the German research firm ZEW (Center for Economic Research) announced that its index for investor’s confidence took a big hit. Investor expectations for Germany fell to minus 24.7 in July from...
Trump faces a tough trip abroad
The week is starting off with difficult issues rearing their ugly heads. Just when President Donald Trump is starting his European trip, the UK, Trump’s first stop, is entering into a political crisis over Brexit. There is a good possibility...
Support for US Stock Market now on Quicksand
The foundational support for the US stock market is now quicksand. According to recently released data pertaining to shares and ETFs investor the churn rate for the markets has increased significantly. More than $2.9 trillion worth of the shares of the...
Unscalable manufacturing process Revelation causes Tesla share sell off
Tesla shares traded as high as $361.50 on July 2, 2018. This was after its founder Elon Musk declared that Tesla was finally a “real car company”. The declaration was prompted by Tesla’s meeting its goal to produce 5,000 Model 3 sedans per week for the...
Outlook for the US economy fraught with uncertainty now that tariffs are official
Friday July 6, 2018, was D-Day for the tariffs. They are now official. So far the US economy looks pretty good according to the June jobs report. Unemployment is at 4% (up slightly from the 3.8% level reached in May) and, importantly, the labor participation rate...
Troubles percolating everywhere
There are several themes playing out in the international game of brinksmanship. There is the sad game of the English political establishment trying to come up with a Brexit plan that will be least painful. Unfortunately, that effort is certain to end in failure....
Another gauge predicting the market to go much lower
A high reading for the “Main Street Meter”, a stock market gauge that was developed by institutional investor James Paulsen of the Leuthold Group is indicating that the stock market will go much lower. Readings for the meter are calculated by dividing the...
A major opportunity for Mexico to turn around its economy and its lawlessness
The landslide victory of Andrés Manuel López Obrador as Mexico’s new president is a big deal. He is an ardent leftist and a firebrand orator. His victory signals a shift in Mexico’s politics and signals a shift in global politics. It is a shift...
Global equity funds suffered their second largest outflows ever this week
Fears of rising protectionism seem to weigh heavily on the markets. Not surprisingly Equity funds suffered their second-largest outflows ever in the week ended June 28, as reported by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. This underscored the week’s...
Bad timing for Walgreens Boots to Replace General Electric in DJIA
On Tuesday of this week General Electric, the oldest of the 30 members of the Dow Jones Industrial (DJIA) average was replaced by global drugstore chain Walgreens Boots Alliance. General Electric was one of the original dozen companies which comprised the...
Q1 revision for GDP is disappointing and the outlook is murky
The Q1 GDP growth being revised from 2.9% to 2.0% is quite disappointing. Results are far from what has been promised by the president. With tariffs about to hit the economy, the outlook is anything but encouraging. In addition to the weak GDP...
New Digital Sales Tax driving markets lower and Wal-Mart higher
The more than 1.3% declines for the Dow 30 and the S&P 500 and the 2.0% decline of NASDAQ today were caused by last week’s digital sales tax ruling by the US Supreme Court. The mainstream financial media has blamed today’s decline on trade. Since the ruling the...
Effect of SCOTUS Sales Tax Decision on Markets
The US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) ruled today that the State of South Dakota can apply their brick and mortar sales taxes to those businesses domiciled outside of the state who sell their products and services online to South Dakota’s residents. This is a significant...
Employment strong but what about the rest of US economy?
Despite all the disarray and the confusion in Washington about immigration, the employment statistics remain strong. Initial jobless claims in the week ending June 16 fell to their lowest levels since the early-1970. The unemployment rate when...
What is the cost of winning a Trade War?
Last night President Trump announced that he was levying an additional $200 billion of tariffs and Chinese imports. The result was significant stock market declines throughout Asia and Europe. Several weeks ago, Mr. Trump said that winning a...
Speech given by FOMC member about US economy is telling
Bloomberg reported that the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s President Raphael Bostic who is also a member of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) has become less optimistic about the U.S. economy. This is due to concerns by the business...
Why has Stock Market Waited Until NOW to React to Tariffs?
The Dow 30 industrials and S&P 500 declined significantly when the US markets opened this morning. Stock market indices in Asia and Europe declined earlier today. The declines were from the anxiety which was caused due to the official start of the trade war...
Quo vadis America?
The American economy went through almost ten years of a wrenching economic stagnation. At the start of 2018 it looked as though the American economy was finally expanding nicely and broadly. Then President Trump decided to throw a wrench into the global...
Is a Potential Trump Recession in the Making?
Talk about an impending stock market crash and another deep recession is heating up. The latest is a comment by former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke who said that the time between now and 2020 is a crucial period for the markets to correct and for the US...
StartEngine has emerged as Cryptocurrency Infrastructure First Mover
Based on a new development, I am reiterating my recommendation to purchase StartEngine’s shares. The shares were originally recommended in November of 2017. StartEngine’s shares should now be purchased aggressively for two reasons: Has emerged as a first mover...