Stock market relief rally high date extended

The date range for the SCPA’s forecasted relief rally highs for stock markets of the US, Japan, Germany, France, South Korea, and Canada to occur has been adjusted.  Based on the adjustment the SCPA’s new 100% statistical probability is that the relief rally highs...

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Embrace the Bear!

Investors must embrace the bear.  A savvy investor or advisor can generate significantly more profits from a secular bear than a secular bull.  It’s also much easier to predict the behavior of a wild and vicious bear than a domesticated bull.   The new 2020 secular...

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Futu Releases Solid Earnings to Shaky Market

Futu Holdings Ltd. (Nasdaq: FUTU), a leading tech-driven brokerage in China, reported positive results last Wednesday for 2019 and for the fourth quarter ending December 31. Top executives also made the case in an earnings call for strong growth in 2020, despite the...

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Crash event forecasting algo nails another one

In yesterday’s “Crash events forecasting also accurate at calling market tops and bottoms”, March 24, 2020, article the statistical crash probability analysis (SCPA) algorithm forecasted that the probability was 100% that the stock indices for the US, Japan, Germany,...

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Bull & Bear Tracker signal sell targets raised

My March 23, 2020,  “Probability is 87% that market is at interim bottom” article contained the projected targets for eight global stock market indices upon a significant market rally occurring.    Now that a powerful rally is now underway the targets have been...

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Light at the end of the Corona Virus Tunnel?

The SP500 has dropped 34% since its peak on February 20th amid the Corona Virus turmoil. I believe now is the time to begin buying stocks once again.  We are in the midst of the greatest market panic comparable only to 1929, 1987, and 2008. The level of fear has...

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The Beacons Are Lit

In the film version of Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, there’s a three-minute scene you should watch or re-watch. It is relevant to our situation today. Gondor needed to light the beacons for aid.

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Dip buyers, beware of sensational headlines!

Many investors are salivating to trade the dips in a stock market which is becoming increasingly more volatile.  It’s because Wall Street for the week ended March 13th according to the headlines had its worst week since 2008.  Its human nature to want to buy at fire...

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Coronavirus Helicopter Money

I write this letter early Friday morning after a week in New York visiting with many fellow market participants. And lots of phone calls, both to analysts and medical experts. I had originally planned a completely different letter but circumstances changed.

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Technically Speaking: On The Cusp Of A Bear Market

“Tops are a process and bottoms are an event” Over the last couple of years, we have discussed the ongoing litany of issues which plagued the underbelly of the financial markets. The “corporate credit” markets are at risk of a wave of defaults. Earnings...

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Chinese Coronavirus Changeup

In baseball, there is a kind of pitch called the “changeup,” designed to look like a fastball while actually going slower. The deceived batter swings too soon and misses. Strike, you’re out. The world has thrown a wicked biological changeup at the...

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Stock market, a buy at October lows

Glass Bead Capital Management (Glass Bead) warned our readers and investors on January 23rd that the market was vulnerable to a correction and that it would be wise to take profits. We had deduced that the probability was fairly high that the market would provide a...

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Did The Market Just Get Infected?

Did The Market Just Get Infected? MacroView: Japan, The Fed, & The Limits Of QE Financial Planning Corner: Part 2: Dave Ramsey Is Wrong About Life Insurance Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud,...

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Why Americans Want Socialism

As I write this, a self-proclaimed “democratic socialist” is leading the race for one of our major parties’ presidential nomination. The fact that so many Americans (especially young Americans) support Bernie Sanders ought to tell us something. A...

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Market Believes It Has Immunity To Risks

Market Believes It Has Immunity To Risk MacroView: Debt, Deficits & The Path To MMT Financial Planning Corner: Why Dave Ramsey Is Wrong About Life Insurance Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud,...

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The Hits to GDP

Economists and investors are rightly obsessed with growth. We always want more of it. We worry it won’t come or, worse, might turn into contraction. Economists of all stripes, from Paul Krugman to Lacy Hunt, recognize economic growth cures all manner of ills.

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Market Correction Goes Viral, Is It Time To Buy?

Market Correction Goes Viral Portfolio Position Review MacroView: Fed’s View Of Valuations May Be Misguided Financial Planning Corner: What You May Have In Common With Kobe Bryant Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook,...

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Dismissing the Experts

Regular readers know I often criticize so-called “experts,” usually economists or central bankers whose flawed decisions are punishing the rest of us. I find their expertise is not nearly as reliable as they seem to think. At the same time, I rely on experts whose...

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Q4 US GDP analysis

US fourth quarter GDP was up a mere 2.1%, unchanged from the preceding three-month period. The main drivers behind the modest growth were consumer and government spending, as well as residential fixed investment and exports. Interestingly, home sales, both new and...

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Nose Blind to Inflation

The human brain excels at taking shortcuts. Processing all the information our senses collect takes a lot of energy, so repetitive data gets lower priority. Things we see often fade into the background so we can notice new stuff. This is where we get phenomena like...

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Too Much Greed — Moving To The Sidelines

It has been a little over 3 months since our last commentary where we predicted that the market was likely to begin a big trending rally as we cleared almost 2 years of a range bound S&P500 and other major indices. Ranges are very important as they serve to...

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Recession Arithmetic: What Would It Take?

David Rosenberg explores Recession Arithmetic in today’s Breakfast With Dave. I add a few charts of my own to discuss. Rosenberg notes “Private fixed investment has declined two quarters in a row as of 2019 Q3. Since 1980, this has only happened twice...

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Looking on the Bright Side

We haven’t had a lot of good news lately. Or, more precisely, we haven’t seen a lot of good news lately, though it does exist. We don’t see it because both regular media and social media usually focus on the bad. That’s not entirely wrong. The survival imperative...

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Technically Speaking: This Is Nuts – Part Deux

In this past weekend’s newsletter, we discussed the exceedingly deviated price, and overbought conditions, not to mention valuations, as key reasons why we slightly reduced risk in our portfolios. “On Friday, we began the orderly process of reducing...

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This Is Nuts & Why We Reduced Risk On Friday

This Is Nuts Portfolio Position Review MacroView: Has The Fed Trapped Itself? Financial Planning Corner: By The Numbers For 2020 Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Catch Up On What You...

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Decade of Living Dangerously, Part 2

If living dangerously is your goal, just keep adding reasonable, manageable, prudent risks. Eventually they’ll add up to serious danger. Hyman Minsky showed how stability leads to instability. Humans have a way of reinterpreting stable periods that seemingly redefines...

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Market Flat In 2020 As Iran Trips Up Traders

Market Review & Update MacroView: Is This A Repeat Of 2018? Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Catch Up On What You Missed Last Week Market Review & Update The first trading day...

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Decade of Living Dangerously, Part 1

Welcome to the 2020s. Some weren’t sure we would make it this far, but we did. Now we face a new decade and new challenges. How we handle them will determine what kind of conversation we have in 2030. This concern for the future is one of the things that separates...

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Special Update: Market “Melt Up” Continues

Market Melt Up Continues Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Catch Up On What You Missed Last Week Market “Melt Up” Continues I am traveling this week with my family for our...

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Market And Investing Wisdoms For 2020

Last week, I posted our 2020 Outlook, which focused on the futility of trying to predict the future and the understanding of the current market risks headed into the next decade: “The reality is that we can’t control outcomes. The most we can do is influence the...

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Prelude to Crisis

Ignoring problems rarely solves them. You need to deal with them—not just the effects, but the underlying causes, or else they usually get worse. The older you get, the more you know that is true in almost every area of life. In the developed world and especially the...

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Technically Speaking: How To Pick Up A Porcupine

Last week, I discussed the registering of the monthly buy signals, which confirmed the bull market in the S&P 500 had resumed following the 2018 Fed/Trade induced sell off. Here is a snippet of our history in this regard: “In April of 2018, I penned an...

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The Trade War Is Over, Long Live The Trade War

New Newsletter Format Market & Portfolio Positioning Review  Demise Of The Dollar Santa To Visit Broad & Wall Rules For A Santa Rally Macro View The “Art Of The Deal” & How To Lose A Trade War New: Financial Planning Corner Sector & Market...

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Time to Do the Hard Thing

We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to...

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Inflationary Angst

According to the dictionary, the word angst refers to “a feeling of deep anxiety or dread, typically an unfocused one about the human condition or the state of the world in general.” It comes from a German word for “fear.” Two weeks ago I referred back to my...

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Market ripening for correction or crash

Based on my analysis of the S&P 500 technical chart patterns after new all-time highs were set in 1999, 2000, 2007, 2018 and 2019, the index is ripening for a significant correction or a crash.  The volatility increasing for a market that is making new all-time...

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Mauldin: The Calm Before The Economic Storm

The global economy is slowing. Germany, for instance, may already be in recession. GDP there dropped 0.1% in this year’s second quarter, with little reason to expect better from Q3 which we will learn soon. Whatever you call it, Germany is certainly not in a good...

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Advice Worth Taking

We’ve reached the Thanksgiving weekend, and as always, I’m thankful for loyal readers like you. I hope you are enjoying some quality time with family and friends. And because of the holiday, this week’s letter will be shorter than usual, but I think it will offer real...

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Recession? The Risk Isn’t Gone 11-22-19

Holiday Note Review & Update Recession Risk Isn’t Gone New: Financial Planning Corner Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Holiday Publication Note All of us at RIA Advisors,...

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Muddling for Solutions

Those who experienced the 1930s as adults are mostly gone now, but they left notes. We have a pretty good record of what that period was like. It wasn’t fun to begin with—then it got worse. This year, I’ve written several times about the 1930s parallels that Ray Dalio...

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The Road to Default

Nothing is forever, not even debt. Every borrower eventually either repays what they owe, or defaults. Lenders may or may not have remedies. But one way or another, the debt goes away. One of Western civilization’s largest problems is we’ve convinced ourselves debt...

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Technically Speaking: 4-Risks To The Bullish View

When I was growing up, my father, probably much like yours, had pearls of wisdom that he would drop along the way. It wasn’t until much later in life that I learned that such knowledge did not come from books but through experience. One of my favorite pieces of...

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For The Bulls, It’s Now Or Never 10-18-19

Now Or Never For The Bulls Bearish Case Has Teeth Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha It’s Now Or Never For The Bulls In April of this year, I wrote an article discussing...

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What about the Brexit?

Will Brexit happen? Yes, it will. Perhaps not on October 31 as planned, but it will happen before the end of this year. The actual departure of the UK from the European Union is not the main issue, however. More important is the reaction by the financial community and...

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The Good, The Bad & The Ugly

, The Good, The Bad & The Ugly The Ugly Not Really Bad, More Okay-ish The Good Hope For More Q.E. Will It Work Next Time The Fly In The Ointment Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha...

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#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 09-23-19

We know you get busy and don’t check on our website as often as you might like. Plus, with so much content being pushed out every week from the RIA Team, we thought we would send you a weekly synopsis of everything that you might have missed. The Week In Blogs...

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The Moment You Know You Know, You Know! 09-20-19

Market Review & Update The Moment You Know Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update Last week, we started our discussion by itemizing the list of all the things...

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US economy is still doing OK

The US economy remains modestly positive. The latest figures on industrial production in August posted an uptick of 0.6% m/m and 0.4% y/y. Manufacturing production was down 0.4% y/y, up a little from a negative 0.5% the month before. And capacity utilization inched up...

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Breaking Down The Bull/Bear Argument

Market Review & Update Breaking Down The Bull/Bear Argument Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update Really! Another week of nowhere? This is the same chart...

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Violent Volatility Dangerous to 2009 Bull

Due to the violent increase in volatility which occurred during August, the S&P 500 finds itself in an extremely vulnerable position for the last week of the summer of 2019.  The volatility has increased the risk that the S&P 500 could decline by more than 100...

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Where are you going market?

One seasoned trader just noted that he believes that many market participants right now are experiencing a down market for the first time during this prolonged bull market and as a result are getting pummeled. The crazy moves in the markets are not over and we will...

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Stock Buybacks Imperil Corporate Viability

Goldman Sachs just completed an analysis of corporate balance sheets and found that dividend and stock buybacks accounted for 103.8% of their free cash flow. Meaning that they were paying more out in cash than they had on hand!  Over the last year, free cash flow has...

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Mauldin – MMT Could Destroy This Nation

I am back from my 14th annual Maine fishing camp. The private event at Leen’s Lodge is generally called Camp Kotok in honor of David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors who started these outings many years ago. CNBC and others began calling it the “Shadow Fed,” but it is...

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Risk Happens Fast. Is The Selling Over? 08-09-19

Risk Happens Fast Is The Selling Over? Risk Happens Slowly, Too. Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Risk Happens Fast Over the last few weeks, we’ve been discussing the potential for a...

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ChoiceTrade Shares, Ready to Rocket!

The share price of ChoiceTrade Holdings is getting ready to rocket from $1.70 to $30.00 per share.  The holding company’s online broker subsidiary, ChoiceTrade has been operating since 2000.  It conducts business in all 50 US states and in 58 countries. ...

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Technically Speaking: Bull Market Or Bull Trap?

For the fourth time, since the end of 2017. the market has set an all-time high. Each previous all-time high has led an almost immediate sell-off.  Will this time be different? Such is the belief currently which is being driven primarily by the “Pavlovian”...

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The Economy IS Slowing

The problem when it comes to blindly investing in markets without a thorough understanding of underlying dynamics is much the same as playing “leapfrog with a…

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Statements made by Michael Markowski and Profitfromthecrash.com  pertaining to returns made from investing in Airbnb, UBER and Snapchat are not indicative of a TRACK RECORD. They are examples for educational purposes only.