Market Rally Continues As Earnings Beat Estimates 07-30-21
In this 07-30-21 issue of “Market Rally Continues As Earnings Beat Estimates.” Market Rally Continues The Mirage Of Strong Earnings GDP Eclipses Pandemic Level Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook,...
Policy Errors Have Consequences
“T.S. Eliot once wrote, ‘Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go.’ It seems the US financial system is bound and determined to find out.” —John Hussman, July 29, 2021 “If I was Darth Vader and I wanted to destroy the US economy, I...
Technically Speaking: The Markets Next “Minsky Moment”
In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the issue of the markets next “Minsky Moment.” Today, I want to expand on that analysis to discuss how the Fed’s drive to create “stability” eventually creates “instability.” In 2007, I was at a conference where Paul...
Secular Bear Birth, Bull Death May 7, 2021
Many investors are excited due to the S&P 500 attaining a new all-time high on July 26, 2021. However, based on the following the probability is high that a new Secular Bear, the first since 2000-2009 and 10th since 1802 was born on May 7, 2021. The bear’s birth...
Bulls “Buy The Dip” But Is The Risk Really Over? 07-23-21
In this 07-23-21 issue of “Bulls Buy The Dip But Is The Risk Really Over?” Bulls Buy The Dip & The Next Minsky Moment Trading Sardines The Fed Is Deflationary Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook,...
Federal Reserve Folly
Great news: The US economy is officially out of recession. We know this because the National Bureau of Economic Research’s official recession-calling committee said so this week. The economy has been in an expansion phase since last April, making this the shortest...
Technically Speaking: Hedge Funds Ramp Up Exposure
The “Fear Of Missing Out” has infected retail and hedge funds alike as they ramp up exposure to chase performance. We have previously discussed the near “mania” of retail investors taking on exceptional risk in various manners. From increasing leverage, engaging in...
Earnings Kick Off With Markets Priced For Perfection 07-16-21
In this 07-16-21 issue of “Earnings Kick Off With Markets Priced For Perfection.” Market Pulls Back As Signals Turn Earnings Season Has A High Bar Markets Priced For Perfection Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter,...
Xi’s Big Mistake
I have mixed feelings about China. On the plus side, I think the country’s massive economic transformation may be one of the most impressive events in human history. Bringing hundreds of millions from primitive rural lives into relatively prosperous cities within a...
Technically Speaking: Bubbles Are Evident After They Pop
Bubbles are evident and only get acknowledged after they pop. Such is because, during the inflation phase of the market bubble, investors rationalize why “this time is different.” We have seen many examples of this rationalization over the last couple of years. Such...
Yields Plunge. Dollar Surges. The Reflation Trade Unravels. 07-09-21
In this 07-09-21 issue of “Yields Plunge Dollar Surges The Reflation Trade Unravels.“ Market Pulls Back As Signals Turn Yield Plunge, Dollar Surge The Reflation Trade Unravels Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter,...
TINA Is Stupid
In the 1980s, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher liked to say, “There is no alternative” to her market-driven economic reform ideas. She said it so much people began abbreviating it as “TINA.” Whatever you think of Lady Thatcher’s policies, the slogan was...
Technically Speaking: Is The Retail Investor Rampage Over?
Is the retail investor rampage over? Since the crash in March 2020, the “retail investor army” marched propelled by chat rooms and social media channels. As discussed previously in “Blind Leading The Blind:” In all, 46% have used social media for investing...
As Good As It Gets. Will Q2 Mark Peak Reporting? 07-02-21
In this 07-02-21 issue of “As Good As It Gets Will Q2 Mark Peak Reporting?“ Market Rallies To Start Q3 As Good As It Gets Fully Invested Bears Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud,...
The New Inquisition
It is as essential to democracy that the minority should voluntarily submit to the measures adopted as it is that the majority should voluntarily approve them. Democratic government rests upon the principle that it is better to count heads than it is to break them....
Technically Speaking: Warnings From Behind The Curtain
“Warnings From Behind The Curtain” almost sounds like the title of a good “Cold War” fiction novel. However, this time, the story is of warnings for investors not often discussed by the mainstream media. Notably, there is a necessary clarification that must get made....
Market Rallies To All-Time Highs As Bulls Dismiss Fed 06-25-21
In this 06-25-21 issue of “Market Rallies To All-Time Highs As Bulls Dismiss Fed.“ Market Rally And Signal Conundrum Bullishness Is Back Hard Data Getting Soft Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook,...
Long Humanity
“At the end of the day” is a trite figure of speech, but it sometimes fits. It signals you’ve used all your time, and now you’ll wrap up and begin thinking about tomorrow. I like to say designing the Strategic Investment Conference agenda is my personal art form....
Technically Speaking: COT Report Shows Stage Set For Volatility
A couple of weeks ago, in “Warning Signs A Correction Is Ahead,” we said quite a few indicators set the stage for a pick-up in volatility. A review of the latest Commitment Of Traders (COT) report suggests the same. “During a ‘bullish advance,’ investors become...
Fed Signals Taper. Will It Be Different This Time? 06/18/21
In this 06-18-21 issue of “Fed Signals Taper. Will It Be Different This Time?“ Reviewing Market Signals Will It Be Different This Time. Inflation Is Surging But Will It Last Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: Rates, Dollar & The 2021 Outlook Sector & Market...
Strategic Investment Potpourri
If it seems I have been talking about the Strategic Investment Conference for weeks… well, you’re right. It really was that much to unpack, and I’ve still only scratched the surface. I will wrap up next week. First, however, I want to make sure you get a few other...
Imminent SP500 correction as Inflation scare will turn to Growth scare
We’ve witnessed some incredible extremes in economic numbers from depression era data due to the complete shutdown of the global economy to red hot 1970’s style inflation due to the vaccine and reopening. Last year the consensus was that it would take years for the...
Technically Speaking: Slowly At First, Then All At Once
Bull markets always seem to end the same – slowly at first, then all at once. My recent discussion on why March 2020 was a “correction” and not a “bear market” sparked much debate over the somewhat arbitrary 20% rule. “Price is nothing more than a reflection of the...
Reviewing Market Signals As Warnings Increase 06-11-21
In this 06-11-21 issue of “Reviewing Market Signals As Warnings Increase.“ Reviewing Market Signals Warnings Increase Bonds Say Deflation Is A Risk Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: Rates, Dollar & The 2021 Outlook Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager...
Politics with No Labels
You can’t always get what you wantBut if you try sometime you findYou get what you need There’s no way around it: Investing in public companies is always political. Corporations exist because governments charter these artificial entities and legally shield the owners...
Technically Speaking: Warning Signs A Correction Is Ahead
After a decent rally from the recent lows, there are multiple warning signs a correction approaches. Over the last few weeks, we discussed the rising risk of a correction between 5-10%, most likely this summer. Such drawdowns are historically very common within any...
Market Hits All-Time Highs As Money Flows Peak 06-04-21
In this 06-04-21 issue of “Market Hits All-Time Highs As Money Flows Peak.“ Market Review And Update Risk Of A Summer Sell-Off The Lack Of Value In Value Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: Yellen’s Push To Offshore Labor Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager...
Technology Rules
Macroeconomic forecasting is too politicized. I don’t mean that in a partisan sense, though it may be so. The bigger problem is that forecasters spend most of their time thinking about central bank decisions and government policies. In the long run, those aren’t the...
Technically Speaking: Are “Sell Signals” Useless In “Mania” Markets?
A recent Bloomberg article made the case that since 2009 “sell signals” are useless during “mania” markets. To wit: “If you bailed because of Bollinger Bands, ran away from relative strength or took direction from the directional market indicator in 2021, you paid for...
Tiered Buy Limit strategy Yields 407 percent gain since April 1st
As of May 30, 2021, the shares of Vertex Energy Inc. (VTNR) had increased by 400% since ShinyPennyStocks.com recommended them on April 1, 2021. Subscribers who followed the site’s Tiered Buy Limit (TBL) instructions were able to reduce their cost basis to $1.46 as...
China, Yields, And The Coming Deflationary Impulse 05-28-21
In this 05-28-21 issue of “China, Yields, And The Coming Deflationary Impulse.“ Market Review And Update China Drives Inflation Yields Need A New Narrative Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: Bear Markets Matter More Than You Think Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan...
Deflation Talk
If you could ask the world’s top central bankers what really terrifies them, I think the honest answer would usually be “deflation.” It is their greatest nightmare. They think a little inflation is good (thus the 2%+ target), and they’re confident they can subdue it...
Technically Speaking: Picking Up Pennies In Front Of A Steamroller
“I take my hat off that you are able to continue picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. Reading your newsletter, I scratch my head in amazement at your ability to increase your exposures in a market you admit is the most expensive ever.” – @mlevin999 That was a...
Bulls Buy Stocks, As Fed Starts Talk Of Taper 05-21-21
In this 05-21-21 issue of “Bulls Buy Stocks, As Fed Starts To Talk Taper.“ Market Review And Update Fed Starts To Talk Taper Risk Is Elevated Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: NFIB Data Says It’s Only A Recovery Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us...
Subscriber notice: “Sweeping changes to BullVix methodology & Trading strategies” video a must view
The 5/16/21 BullVix webinar, which articulated on the sweeping changes for the methodology of the BullVix algorithm, is now available in its entirety or via a 6 part series. The video explains the three separate, low to high maintenance trading strategies, which are...
Expecting Inflation
The annual whirlwind is over. SIC was once again a mental overload. This year our virtual schedule spread it over almost two weeks, which was actually nice. The in-between days let the ideas settle a bit before the firehose opened again. Fifty powerful, thoughtful...
Technically Speaking: Yardeni – The Market Will Soon Reach 4500
“The strong economic recovery will not get interrupted by inflation or a credit crunch, and the market will soon reach 4,500.” – Ed Yardeni via Advisor Perspectives After discussing BofA’s view of why the market could drop to 3800, I thought it fair to discuss a more...
Despite Surging Inflation, The Bulls Shake Off Weakness 05-14-21
In this 05-14-21 issue of “Despite Surging Inflation, The Bulls Shake Off Weakness.“ Market Review And Update Rates Doing The Fed’s Work The Fed Will Be Late Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: NFIB Data Says It’s Only A Recovery Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan...
A Giant Consumptive Force
The SIC was in full swing this week. I am finishing this on Friday morning, a few hours before the start of the last official day and then a “Plus Day” on Tuesday. My mind is swimming with new connections and revelations. While the live events are mostly over now,...
Subscriber notice: Trading Strategy adjustments for BullVix’s 2020/2021 VixVortex
The article “S&P 500 is in a ‘VixVortex'; Expect Double-Digit Decline,” published on 5/8/21, explains what I consider to be my most important ever breakthrough. Harnessing the Vix has been the most intellectually demanding and exciting endeavor I've undertaken in...
Technically Speaking: If Everyone Sees It, Is It Still A Bubble?
“If everyone sees it, is it still a bubble?” That was a great question I got over the weekend. As a “contrarian” investor, it is usually when “everyone” is talking about an event; it doesn’t happen. As Mark Hulbert noted recently, “everyone” is worrying about a...
S&P 500 is in a “VixVortex”; Expect Double-Digit Decline
The "VixVortex" was discovered as a result of recently completed studies on market volatility and the CBOE's empirical data for the VIX from 2002 to 2021. The fourth VixVortex for the S&P 500 is currently in progress. The minimum to maximum decline for the S&P...
Poor Jobs Report Gives Bulls A Reason To Charge 05-08-21
In this 05-08-21 issue of “Poor Jobs Report Gives Bulls A Reason To Charge.“ Market Review And Update Peak Earnings Bonds Aren’t Buying It Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: No. Bonds Aren’t Overvalued. Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan...
This Kind of Duality
We’re midway through the SIC 2021, and as I expected, it’s shaping up to be the biggest and best Strategic Investment Conference I’ve ever hosted. So far, all of our presenters and panelists have given stellar performances... and attendees seem to agree with that...
Technically Speaking: Doug Kass’ 50-Laws Of Investing
Over the years I have published numerous articles with “investing laws” from some of the great investors in history. These laws, or rules, are born of experience, tested by markets, and survived time. Here are some of our previous posts: Bob Farrell’s 10-Rules Desktop...
All Inflation Is Transitory. The Fed Will Be Late Again. 04-30-21
In this issue of “All Inflation Is Transitory, The Fed WIll Be Late Again.“ Market Review And Update All Inflation Is Temporary The Fed Should Be Hiking Now Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: No. Bonds Aren’t Overvalued. Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager...
Anomaly of a Recovery
We did the first Strategic Investment Conference 18 years ago. I remember one of the partners in the firm that cohosted the event telling me as I walked up to the stage, “John, it doesn’t get any better than this. Don’t screw it up.” He was wrong. Every year the...
Technically Speaking: Forward Returns Continue To Fall
One of the interesting aspects of “bull markets” is the further they go, the lower forward returns fall. In hindsight, such an idea seems counter-intuitive, but ultimately it always comes down to valuations. As Warren Buffett once quipped: “Price is what you pay....
Stocks Vs. Rates – Which One Is Most Likely Right? 04-24-21
In this 04-24-21 issue of “Stocks vs. Rates – Which One Is Most Likely Right?“ Market Review And Update Market Pricing In Huge Recovery Interest Rates Are Not Convinced Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: Siegel On Why Stocks Could Rise 30% Sector & Market Analysis...
Stumbling to Scarcity
In economic forecasting, reality is usually somewhere between the extremes. The best-case and worst-case rarely happen. That’s why, when they do happen, markets react so quickly to the “missed expectations.” I saw this early in my career. Realizing we will “muddle...
Technically Speaking: Is BofA Right About A Market Drop To 3800?
Recently, Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian discussed why the market could drop to 3800. She discussed her thesis in her latest strategy note titled “Five Reasons To Curb Your Enthusiasm.” This analysis is interesting, particularly when analysts are rushing to...
Market Continues Its Rally As Earnings Season Starts 04-16-21
In this 04-16-21 issue of “Market Continues Its Rally As Earnings Season Starts.“ Market Review And Update China Is A Risk Hard To Justify Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: Biden Stimulus Will Cut Poverty For One-Year Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager...
Tsunami Warning
A tsunami is a wall of water that wipes out everything in its path, typically caused by earthquakes. But first, the water actually disappears from the usual shoreline, leaving land where there should be sea. A tsunami is a wall of water that wipes out everything in...
12 Years old Secular Bull Market alive, but not well!
The secular bull market which began at the March 2009 low is alive, but not well, according to the findings from my recently conducted research. Many analysts and advisors are of the opinion that the 34% decline for the S&P 500 to its 2020 bottom was the end of a...
#Fundamentally Speaking: Earnings Optimism Explodes
As markets surge to record highs, analysts are rushing to ratchet up earnings estimates as optimism explodes. “The first quarter of 2021 marked the largest increase in the bottom-up EPS estimate during a quarter since FactSet began tracking the quarterly bottom-up EPS...
Market Surges Back To Overbought As Investors Go “All In” 04-10-21
In this 04-10-21 issue of “Markets Surges Back To Overbought As Investors Go ‘All In’“ Market Review And Update Investors Are All In More Than One Cockroach Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: Biden Stimulus Will Cut Poverty For One-Year Sector & Market Analysis...
Tiny Housing Bubbles
Recently I searched the Thoughts from the Frontline archives to see how often I used the word “bubble.” It was more than I thought, and I wasn’t quoting Don Ho. The bubbles I talked about were anything but tiny. Most of them subsequently popped, too. For most people,...
Markowski’s penny stock recommendation biggest gainer in US market for Tuesday April 6th
Yahoo Finance’s biggest percentage gainers table below depicts that ShinyPennyStocks.com Investview (INVU) recommendation was the biggest gainer for the entire US stock market for Tuesday April 6, 2021. The shares of the 3rd largest publicly traded Bitcoin miner...
#Technically Speaking: Despite Correction, Investors Are Exuberant
Despite the recent correction in the markets, leading to a hedge fund imploding, investors remain exuberant. The hopes for more stimulus, government spending, and Fed liquidity displace fears of a correction. Before we get into the technical review of the markets, I...
BBT Algorithm outperforms S&P 500 by 76% for 1st quarter of 2021
For the first quarter of 2021, the BBT Algorithm (BBT) produced a gain of 10.13% vs. a gain of 5.75% for the S&P 500. The BBT’ return was 76% higher than the S&P 500’s gain. Nine of the BBT’s 15 trades were winners, a 60% win-ratio. The win ratio for the...
Expert who recommended Investview below 2 pennies says shares can go significantly higher
The shares of ShinyPennyStocks.com recommendation “Investview” (INVU) increased by 147% for the week ended April 2, 2021. The shares which closed at 41¢ for the week have increased by as much as 2633% since being recommended in 2019 by analyst Michael Markowski who...
The Exponential Ride
The last year brought exponential growth in, among other things, use of the word “exponential.” It is now the go-to term when you want to say something is “growing super-fast.” I've got to admit it's getting better (Better)A little better all the time (It can't get no...
Increasing Equity Exposure As Money Flows Turn Positive 04-02-21
In this 04-02-21 issue of “Increasing Equity Exposure As Money Flows Turn Positive.“ Market Review And Update Cognitive Dissonance Valuations Dictate Long-Term Returns Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: Biden Stimulus Will Cut Poverty For One-Year Sector & Market...
#Technically Speaking: Bulls Run As Liquidity Floods Market
As liquidity floods the market, the bulls continue to run the market. However, was the recent consolidation enough to reset market exuberance? Over the last few weeks, I discussed the weekly “sell signals.” Such suggested upside would be somewhat limited for markets...
Market Rallies On Powell’s “Easy Money” Promise 03-27-21
In this 03-27-21 issue of “Market Rallies On Powell’s Easy Money Promise.” Market Review And Update Powell’s “Easy Money” Promise Stock Buybacks Gone Wild Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: Could A Transaction Tax Be A Good Thing? Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan...
The 1970s Never Ended
Big economic storms are rare and usually end quickly, but they tend to have long-lasting effects. Today I want to talk about a storm 50 years ago that still affects us now. Important things happened in the 1970s. I personally remember that decade well. I was in my 20s...
#Technically Speaking: Is The End Of The Value Trade Near?
The end of the value trade may be near as investors push prices beyond economic growth expectations. Interestingly, it was just last year that I wrote: “The Rotation To Value Is Inevitable.” The critical point of that article was this: “The market’s surge higher since...
Powell Can’t Raise Rates As Economy Remains On Life-Support 03-20-21
In this issue of “Powell Can’t Raise Rates As Economy Remains On Life-Support.” Market Review And Update Powell Says No Rate Hikes An Economic Coma Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: Is “Hyperinflation” Really A Threat Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager...
Broken Debt
Modern technology is amazing but our ancient forebears built some wondrous things, too. Long-ago historians organized them into “Seven Wonders of the Ancient World.” (Of course, their “world” was the Mediterranean and Middle East. Other wonders existed elsewhere.)...
Treasury Yield Spikes since 1986 followed by 41% declines for stocks
The chart below which covers the yields for US 10 year and 30-year Treasury bonds from January 1940 to March 2021, was pulled from a March 4, 2021 Elliot Wave report. The chart depicts the crashes for the Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) and S&P 500 composite indices...
What Interest Rate Triggers The Next Crisis?
What Interest Rate Triggers The Next Crisis? The Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields 1.61%. 10-year high-quality corporate bonds yield 2.09%. The rate on a 30-year mortgage is 3.05%. Despite recent increases, interest rates are hovering near historic lows. We do not...
#Technically Speaking: Another Way To Look At Long-Term Bubble Cycles
Yes. We are in a stock market bubble. But what if conventional methods of examining market cycles miss a crucial point? While we often talk about parts of cycles (bull or bear), exploring the full-market cycle may provide another way to look at long-term bubble...
Bulls “Rush In” With More Stimulus On The Way 03-12-21
In this issue of “Bulls ‘Rush In’ With More Stimulus On The Way 03-12-21.” Market Review And Update Speculation Alive And Well Yes, Rising Rates Will Matter Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: Yellen’s “Go Big” MMT Plan May Disappoint Sector & Market Analysis 401k...
Inflation Is Broken
I have been writing for many years that the US in particular and the Western “developed” world in general were approaching a time where none of our choices would be good. We have arrived. Any choice the government and central banks of the US and the rest of the world...
Technically Speaking: The Bull Market Is On Shaky Ground
Last week’s sell-off left the “bull market” on shaky ground. The big question for investors at the moment is whether the 11-year old bull market is ending or is this just a “pause that refreshes?” While the optimistic “hope” is that this is just a pause within a...
Everything Is Broken
Broken CreditBroken RetirementBroken StocksBroken DataBroken Unemployment SystemPuerto Rico, Vaccines, and Some Good News Broken lines, broken strings,Broken threads, broken springs,Broken idols, broken heads,People sleeping in broken beds —Bob Dylan, “Everything is...
Market Stumbles As Rising Rates Undermine Outlooks 03-05-21
In this issue of “Market Stumbles As Rising Rates Undermine Outlooks.” Market Review And Update Jerome Powell Disappoints Topping Patterns Suggest Caution Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: Feedback Loop Between Fed & Elite Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan...
Technically Speaking: Topping Patterns Popping Up Everywhere
As I worked through this past weekend’s newsletter, I noticed that multiple markets are starting to exhibit topping patterns. It will be crucial for markets to reverse these patterns in the short-term if the bullish advance continues. As we discussed with our...
Despite The Fed, The Bond Market Is Hiking Rates 02-26-21
In this issue of “Despite The Fed, The Bond Market Is Hiking Rates.” Market Review And Update Bond Market Is Hiking Rates Why Higher Rates Are A Real Problem Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: Why Stimulus Doesn’t Lead To Organic Growth Sector & Market Analysis...
The Great Jobs Reset
We are almost through February and (knocking on wood) the US COVID-19 situation is improving daily. The B117 and other variants haven’t yet made a big impact. Possibly they will, but as time passes more people are getting at least partial protection through vaccines....
Bear Trader Subscriber Notice 02/23/21
There have been two recent discoveries that are relevant to the Bull Vix algorithm’s open VXX and UVXY positions: The clustering of BSAs. Four periods from 1999 to 2021 in which a minimum of four BSAs were clustered within 6 to 11-week timeframes. For the...
Technically Speaking: Blowing Up The “Everything Bubble”
Recently, I discussed the “Two Pins That Pop The Bubble,” specifically noting the risk of rising interest rates and inflation. However, the real threat is not just the stock market bubble’s deflation but rather blowing up the “everything bubble.” During previous...
High Risk, Low Reward for S&P 500 for Foreseeable Future
The probability is high for the S&P 500 in February 2022 to be below its February 2021 high. This quant-based conclusion is from my research findings on four clusters of BSAs (Bullish Sentiment Anomalies). Three of the BSA clusters were formed from 1999 to...
The Markets May Be Starting To Worry About Rates 02-19-21
In this 02-19-21 issue of “The Markets, May Be Starting To Worry About Rates.” Market Review And Update Are Rates About To Cause A Problem Risk Appetite Is Extreme Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: Why Stimulus Doesn’t Lead To Organic Growth...
Random Thoughts from the Frontline
Readers often ask how these letters appear so regularly. The answer is we have a process. Normally, I talk to my associate Patrick Watson on Monday about the next weekend’s letter. We both go into research mode, verbally outlining a letter, and by Thursday I have an...
Technically Speaking: Howard Marks On Speculative Manias
One of my favorite investing legends is Oaktree Management’s Howard Marks. His investing wisdom and in-depth knowledge of investor psychology and market dynamics are unparalleled. Given the “speculative mania” we continue to watch in the market, I thought a review of...
Warren Buffet’s Indicator Corroborates Market at “Perilous Peak”
At February 11, 2021, the “Buffet Indicator”, created by legendary investor Warren Buffet, indicated that the US stock market was “Strongly Overvalued”. The indicator corroborates Michael Markowski’s recent stock market at “Perilous Peak” research finding. The...
Speculative Mania Continues As It “Goes Up In Smoke” 02-12-21
In this issue of “Speculative Mania Continues As It ‘Goes Up In Smoke.'” Market Review And Update Speculative Mania Continues Two Important Threats Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: Why Stimulus Doesn’t Lead To Organic Growth Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan...
Overstimulation Risk
Among the many strange, unforeseen changes of the last year is a new respect for Keynesian economic theory. Practically everyone in power now agrees that deficit spending produces GDP growth. They differ only on its expected magnitude and duration. The few exceptions...
Technically Speaking: COT – Dollar & Rates Issue A Warning
As discussed in Bull Mania, the signs of market exuberance did not diminish during the recent correction. With the market well ahead of fundamentals, as money continues to chase performance, the “risk” remains elevated. In this past weekend’s newsletter, “Wall Street...
Prepare for the Bear
The peaking process that the S&P 500 must go through after its 4th “Perilous Peak” since 1881 occurred in January 2021 is well underway. The S&P 500 must churn at the high to provide the fuel for the first double-digit correction since March 2020 to occur. ...
Wall Street Wins Again As GameStop Becomes Game Over 02-05-21
In this issue of “Wall Street Wins Again As Gamestop Becomes Game Over.” Market Review & Update It All Ended Badly Very Quickly The Dollar Rally Threat Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: Bull Mania & Charge Of The Light Brigade Sector & Market Analysis 401k...
Controlling the Curve
If time is money, then interest rates are the price of time. The most important interest rates in the world are for US Treasury securities. This is why I’ve long said it makes no sense for a committee to set those rates. The markets could do just fine without that...
Technically Speaking: Is A Larger Correction Coming?
In last week’s Technically Speaking post we discussed why we reduced risk in anticipation of a pullback in the markets. However, there are some warning signs which beg the question “is a larger correction coming?” A Tough Start What started out as a promising January,...
Detached Parabolas and Open Trap Doors
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. President, Hussman Investment Trust February 2021 The nutshell is this: the old line economy stocks just don’t work because they have earnings and eventually rising interest rates impact earnings. New economy stocks have no earnings, so...
Retail Investors Stage Riot Against Wall Street 01-29-21
In this issue of “Retail Investors Stage Riot Against Wall Street.” Retail Investors Stage Riot Market Takes A Hit Greed Breaks Things Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: 2021 – A Disappointment Of Growth And Disinflation Sector & Market Analysis...
Inflation and Broken Windows
I’m often asked if I foresee inflation or deflation. This week we had an “Ask Me Anything” session for Alpha Society members and it came up several times. Both are possible in their own ways, and frankly I feel a little funny telling people I think we will see both. I...
DNA Discovery Confirms 2021 Perilous Peak & Secular Bull High for S&P 500
My additional research of empirical data from 1871 to 2021 has resulted in the 4 new significant discoveries which pertain to record highs, Perilous Peaks and Secular Bull market highs: The addition of the initial Perilous Peak, which occurred in 1881. The four...
Bloomberg interview of world’s legendary market crash expert a must see
According to market crash expert Michael Markowski, Bloomberg TV’s 1/22/21 interview of legendary institutional investor Jeremy Grantham about the stock market currently being at an epic bubble is a must view for every active or passive investor. The 50+ years...
Technically Speaking: Why We Reduced Risk Last Week
Why we reduced risk last week. During the last few weeks, I have discussed the rising levels of exuberance in the markets. On Friday, I tweeted the following: Money flows very close to flipping negative. I might be a few days early but we are dropping #equity exposure...
Death of Baseball’s Hank Aaron to negatively impact market and economy!
On Friday January 22. 2021, Henry Aaron who broke legend Babe Ruth’s home run record in 1974 passed away in his sleep. While the cause of death for Aaron who was 86 was not released, his death has provided an asterisk to his legacy. On January 5, 2021, Aaron and...
Bulls Continue To Push Stocks Higher As Risk Rises 01-22-21
In this issue of “Bulls Continue To Push Stocks Higher As Risk Rises.” Bulls Push Stocks To New Highs Market Queuing Up For A Correction The Fed Broke It Portfolio Positioning MacroView: The Problem With Analysts Forecasts Sector & Market Analysis 401k...
Forecast 2021: The Stock Market
This will be the third part of my 2021 Forecast Series. You can read the first two parts here and here. The general theme has been “On the Gripping Hand.” Science fiction writers imagined a three-handed alien race with a left hand, right hand, and a very strong...
Inflation raises its ugly head sooner than anticipated
Inflation appears to be raising its ugly head, albeit only modestly so far. The rate of the CPI increase has remained well under 2% and is expected to stay at that level for now. But the direction of monetary erosion is decidedly on the rise. It remains to be seen how...
Technically Speaking: Signs Of Exuberance Warn Of Correction
During the past couple of weeks, I have discussed the rising levels of exuberance in the markets. Importantly, that exuberance combined with surging margin debt levels warns of an impending correction. I recently discussed why this is not a “new bull...
S&P 500 at 3rd Perilous Peak since 1929!
On January 8, 2021, the S&P 500 reached its third Perilous Peak since 1871 according to the Extreme Analytics (EA) algorithm. Recently concluded research of empirical data revealed that 1929 and 2000 were the first-ever Perilous Peaks for the S&P 500 since...
The Speculative “V”
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. President, Hussman Investment Trust January 2021 It’s essential to monitor the uniformity of market internals, because investors still have the speculative bit in their teeth. The problem is that this has also often been true at the very...
Everyone Is In The Pool. More Buyers Needed. 01-15-21
In this issue of “Everyone Is In The Pool. More Buyers Needed.” Everyone Is In The Pool Sentiment & Technicals Pushing Extremes A Heat Map Of Valuations Investor Resolutions MacroView: Yellen’s Arranged Marriage To The Fed Sector & Market...
The Grip Tightens
This is part two of my 2021 forecast series. I began last week (you can read it here) discussing a three-handed alien race envisioned by science fiction writers Jerry Pournelle and Larry Niven. They had two regular hands and a third “gripping hand,” which though less...
Shares that trade VIX can’t go to zero, yet have 100%+ upside!
Two important things to know about the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and the shares of the VXX and UVXY which mimic and trade the VIX: Since the VIX is an index, it and the VXX, UVYX shares which trade it are not stocks and thus can-not go to ZERO. When the correction...
Technically Speaking: 2021 Investor Resolutions & January Stats
With 2021 already off to a good start, with the market up almost 2% in January, such is an excellent time to review our “investor resolutions.” So Goes January There is an abundance of “Wall Street Axioms” surrounding the first month of the New...
Update for Shiny-Pennies.com recommendation which has increased by 10X now available
Bulls N Bears’ Shiny-Pennies.com has published an update for Investview (INVU) and its shares which have increased by more than 10 times since they were recommended is now available. The update includes low, medium and high share price targets for 2021. All are...
Bulls Loving The “Heads I Win, Tails I Win” Market 01-08-21
In this issue of “Bulls Loving The Heads I Win, Tails I Win” Market Bulls Loving The “Heads I Win, Tails I Win” Market The Risk To The Bullish View Is The Reflation Trade Over? Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: The Two Primary Risks In...
Year of the Gripping Hand
This week’s letter is the first part of my 2021 forecast. There is simply too much to cover in one letter, and today we’ll start with the most important factor, a known unknown, that I think will be the driver for 2021. Before beginning, I want to make two points, one...
Waiting For The Last Dance
Executive Summary The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. Featuring extreme overvaluation, explosive price increases, frenzied issuance, and hysterically speculative investor behavior, I believe this event will be...
Technically Speaking: S&P 500 – Trading At Historical Extremes
Welcome to 2021. As we kick off a new year, we begin with the S&P 500 trading at historical extremes. It is essential to have some perspective to set reasonable expectations for future returns and quantify the “risk” of something going wrong. As we...
So Far, The Bulls Are Disappointed In “Santa” (Full Version)
In this issue of “So Far, The Bulls Are Disappointed In Santa.” An Administrative Note Only Two-Days Left For Santa To Deliver Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: Shades Of 1999 As “Market Mania” Returns Sector & Market Analysis 401k...
Technically Speaking: Navigating Market Lingo In 2021
In February, Institutional Investor published a brilliant piece entitled “Asset Manager B.S. Decoded.” As we approach the year-end of 2020, succeeding in 2021 may come down to navigating the “market lingo” successfully. “A handy...
All I Want For Christmas Is A Bull Market (Full Version) 12-25-20
In this issue of “All I Want For Christmas Is A Bull Market 2021.” Will Santa Claus Visit Broad & Wall The Grinch That Stole Christmas Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: Yellen’s Arranged Marriage To The Fed Sector & Market Analysis 401k...
Technically Speaking: Charting 2020 – A Year Of Speculative Mania
As we prepare to wrap up the year, 2020 will go down in the record books as a year of the “unexpected.” While no one expected the world to get besieged by a raging pandemic, equally, no one expected the year to end in a “speculative mania.” In...
Bull Vix: Vicious Accuracy
The Bull Vix now has vicious accuracy due to its new algorithm. The results from a 10 year backtest indicated that the algorithm’s performance for its defined trading periods after an occurrence of a Bullish Sentiment Anomaly (BSA) were flawless. The Bull Vix...
A Good Response to a Bad Situation
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. President, Hussman Investment Trust Late-December 2020 In traditional financial theory, interest rates are a key component of valuation models. When interest rates fall, the discount rate used in these models decreases and the price of...
Overly Bullish Speculators Front-Run “Santa Claus” 12-18-20
In this issue of “Overly Bullish Speculators Front-Run ‘Santa Claus'” Here Comes “Santa Claus” Good Intentions Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: The Energy Rally Is Likely Premature Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager...
Stock Market Party
"History repeats itself, that's one of the things that's wrong with history.” The end of 2020 has me looking back. I started writing the letters that later became Thoughts from the Frontline back in the late 1990s. Similar to COVID-19 today, we had a giant macro issue...
Technically Speaking: Will “Santa Claus” Visit “Broad & Wall”
As we start moving into the last two weeks of the trading year, investors everywhere are hopeful that “Santa Claus” will visit “Broad & Wall.” The actual Wall Street saying is that “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come...
Bull Vix’s Bullish Sentiment Anomaly signals gain 433%
Continuing empirical research of all Bullish Sentiment Anomaly (BSA) occurrences since 2010 has resulted in the Bull Vix’s signals to trade VIX related securities being tweaked to almost perfection. The cumulative net gain for the algorithm’s 27 signals, less than...
Irrational Exuberance – The Bulls Remain In Control 12-11-20
In this issue of “Irrational Exuberance – The Bulls Remain In Control.” Bullish Bias Continues The Disposition Of Risk And Control Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: The Energy Rally Is Likely Premature Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan...
Survival of the Biggest
The essential point to grasp is that in dealing with capitalism we are dealing with an evolutionary process… At the heart of capitalism is creative destruction. …Situations emerge in the process of creative destruction in which many firms may have to perish that...
SPIKES; S&P Down & VIX Up by year end due to Rare Anomaly research findings!
Most recent findings from researching the three prior Bullish Sentiment Anomaly (BSA) occurrences since 2017, indicate a 100% probability the following to occur by end of 2020: S&P 500 to decline by 11%. Call options which trade VIX, VXX and UVXY to increase by...
Technically Speaking: Margin Debt Confirms Market Exuberance
During the past couple of weeks, I have discussed the rising levels of bullishness in the markets. We have pointed to indicators like extreme investor positioning, put/call ratios, etc. However, the current surge in margin debt also confirms market exuberance. First,...
Sign, Sign, Everywhere A Sign. But Investors Disregard
In this issue of “Sign, Sign, Everywhere A Sign. But Investors Disregard.” Bullish Bias Continues Into December Sign, Sign, Everywhere A Sign Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: The Energy Rally Is Likely Premature Sector & Market Analysis 401k...
Elites on the Edge
Growing income and wealth inequality were on my (and probably your) radar screen long before COVID-19 came along. The pandemic has made them both more obvious and more urgent. The actions by the Federal Reserve have widened the gap. We are now in a situation where...
Hypervaluation and the Option Value of Cash
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. President, Hussman Investment Trust December 2020 One of the most insidious ideas foisted on investors by Wall Street, in tacit cooperation with activist policy makers at the Federal Reserve, is the fiction that zero interest rates offer...
Technically Speaking: Is The Narrative All “Priced In?”
Is the narrative all “priced in?” As discussed over the past couple of weeks, investors have gone “all in.” With the markets now extremely extended, what should investors do now? On Saturday, I discussed the risks as we head into distribution...
VIX Research Uncovers Huge Upside Opportunity for December 2020
Research conducted to utilize the BBT Algorithm to trade VIX related securities has uncovered a huge upside opportunity. The VIX research initiative was in support of Bear Trader’s recent first ever recommendation to its aggressive and conservative traders to...
Market Risk Elevated Heading Into Distribution Season 11-27-20
In this issue of “Market Risk Elevated Heading Into Distribution Season.” Stuck Near All-Time Highs More Signs Of Market Risk Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: A Vaccine & The New “New Normal” Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan...
The Financial Fire Trucks of 2021
A Happy Thanksgiving weekend to all my US friends. This year was different for many of us—sometimes by choice, sometimes not. But there’s one bit of good news I think we can all share: The holiday season means 2020 is almost over. Soon, we’ll be able to turn the page....
Technically Speaking: Investors Go “All-In” Without A Net
We have recently written a couple of posts about the “exuberance” that has invaded the market since the election. Such is often seen near short- to intermediate-term peaks in markets as investors go “all-in” without a net. It was on December...
Market Sentiment Anomalies Create Rare Upside Opportunity for December 2020
The recent discovery of two stock market sentiment anomalies has created a rare upside investment opportunity for gains of above 36% in December and 86% by February 2020. The two anomalies: Thanksgiving Melt Up Anomaly. The average gain for 12 of past 14 November 20...
Risk Exceeds Reward – Why We Took Profits 11-20-20
In this issue of “Risk Exceeds Reward – Why We Took Profits.” Market Struggles With All-Time Highs Sentiment Is Getting Overly Bullish Valuations Vs. Momentum Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: The Fed Will Monetize All Debt Issuance Sector...
The Great Reset vs. The Great Reset
In baseball, there is a situation where a base runner is sprinting to home plate and can’t see what is happening behind him. Totally focused on scoring, he doesn’t know if the outfielder is throwing a ball that will reach home plate first. That’s where we get the...
US Unemployment remains Murky
The US employment picture remains murky. Today the labor department reported a significant increase in initial unemployment claims for the week ending November 14. Initial jobless claims in regular state programs totaled 742,000, up 31,000 from the prior week. The...
Retail Sales Missing Estimates Potential Catalyst for Market Correction?
U.S. retail sales fell short of estimates in October rising only 0.3%, the lowest pace in the last six months. The median estimates by Bloomberg’s survey of economists was a 0.5% increase. The miss could be the catalyst for a 5% to 10% market correction. This...
Technically Speaking: Bulls Go Ballistic – Time To Reduce Risk
In this past weekend’s newsletter, we discussed the exceedingly deviated price and overbought conditions. When we combine the technical backdrop with the “bulls going ballistic,” it once again makes sense to reduce risk in our portfolios. “The...
Pushing Extremes
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. President, Hussman Investment Trust November 2020 The one reality that you can never change is that a higher-priced asset will produce a lower return than a lower-priced asset. You can’t have your cake and eat it. You can enjoy it now, or...
November Consumer Sentiment Reading Lowest since August
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment decreased to 77 in November from 81.8 in October, a preliminary estimate showed. It is the lowest reading since August as consumers judged future economic prospects less favorably, while their assessments of current...
Premature Vaccine Rally to soon Fizzle!
Article edited on 11/15/2020 The stock market rally after Pfizer announced that its Coronavirus vaccine had 90% efficacy was premature since the vaccine: Now in stage 3 clinical trials has been fast tracked by FDA for emergency use ONLY Must finish Stage 3 and also...
Market Breaks Out On Vaccine Hopes As Cases Surge 11-13-20
In this issue of “Market Breaks Out On Vaccine Hopes As Cases Surge.” Market Breaks Out Barely Vaccine Will Arrive Too Late The “Smart Money” Is Leaving Town Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: The Fed Will Monetize All Debt Issuance Sector...
A Chance for Normalcy
Last week I talked about the polls misleading us. I, for one, didn’t see a high probability of a Biden presidency combined with a Republican Senate. But, pending recounts, legal actions, and some run-off elections, that’s probably what will happen. We will muddle...
Technically Speaking: S&P 3750 – Market Surges On Vaccine Hopes
In Mid-August, I posited a potential bullish run on the S&P index to 3750. For that to occur from the levels we discussed then, several things would have to happen. One of those was a “vaccine.” Yesterday, the market surged higher on news the Pfizer...
Sell Mega-cap tech stocks due to Vaccine Discovery!
When Pfizer announced a 90% effective vaccine for the Coronavirus on Monday November 9, 2020, the US stock market closed one chapter and opened another. The new chapter ushers in extreme volatility for the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 indices. The EXTREME volatility,...
Post-Election sentiment reading algorithm indicates market trend down
The BBT algorithm’s negative post-election sentiment readings intensifying for the last three days of the trading week ended Friday November 6, 2020, indicate that the US stock market will trend steadily lower for the foreseeable future. The probability is high for...
Market Surges As Election Turns Into Optimal Outcome 11-06-20
In this 11-06-20 issue of “Market Surges As Election Turns Into Optimal Outcome.” Market Surges As Election Remains Unclear Gridlock Is Best For Markets The Focus Turns Back To The Fed Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: The Fed Will Monetize All Debt...
Complexity Wins Again
Here in Puerto Rico we are now an hour ahead of Eastern Time, as we don’t do daylight savings time. I stayed up much later than normal on election night to watch the returns. I knew fairly early, when Florida and North Carolina looked so close, we weren’t going to see...
BullsNBears’ Four Election Outcome Scenarios
There are four possible post 2020 election outcome scenarios which will determine the direction of the US stock market through November 2022: Republican President/Republican Senate/ Democrat House Republican President/Democrat Senate/ Democrat House Democrat...
Technically Speaking: Rules To Navigate A Contentious Election
In “Policies Over Politics,” we discussed the markets’ historical trends during the presidential election years. That data mostly assumes the election process goes smoothly, and a President is declared quickly. However, in 2020, a very different...
Bull & Bear Tracker 100% accurate in predicting Volatile Election market moves
Bull & Bear Tracker’s signals to trade long and short S&P 500 ETFs; SPY and SH were 100% accurate in predicting the direction of the world’s two most volatile elections since 2016: Brexit June 23, 2016 The Bull & Bear Tracker’s signal was red indicating a...
Market Drops As Traders Head For The Pre-Election Exit 10-31-20
In this issue of “Market Drops As Traders Head For The Pre-Election Exit.” Market Breaks Support Still Trading With Election Year Stats – For Now A Word About That “Boomer” GDP Report Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: The Fed Will...
What Will Not Change
“If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.” If you feel a bit overwhelmed, you’re not alone. A lot is happening right now. The US has a big election next week. We’re all on edge about the pandemic, which appears to be getting worse again,...
Technically Speaking: It’s Coming. A Huge Bond Buying Opportunity.
Here we go again. After plunging to new lows, the calls for the end of the “bond bull” market mount each time rates rise. Is this time the end of the “bond bull?” Or, is there another huge bond-buying opportunity to come? We recently reduced...
Stimulus. No Stimulus. Market Bounces With Headlines. 10-23-20
In this issue of “Stimulus. No Stimulus. Market Bounces With Headlines.” Market Bounces With Headlines Back To Excess Optimism Bull Now, Bear Later Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: Recessions Are A Good Thing, Let Them Happen Sector & Market...
The Green Shoots of 2020
Appearing on 60 Minutes, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke said the recession’s end was in sight because the Fed’s asset purchases were generating “green shoots.” They turned out to be slow-growing shoots. The US unemployment rate kept getting worse for seven more months...
Technically Speaking: Market Bulls Are “All-In” Again
In yesterday’s post on “Moral Hazard,” we discussed how Fed actions shifted the “risk appetite” of investors through “perceived” insurance against losses. As we head into a potentially contentious election, market...
Herd Mentality
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. President, Hussman Investment Trust October 2020 That the rate of interest will be lower when commerce languishes and when there is little demand for money, than when the energies of commerce are in full play and there is an active demand...
Market Stumbles As Stimulus Hopes Fade 10-16-20
In this issue of “Market Stumbles As Stimulus Hopes Fade.” Hopes For More Stimulus Election Night Risk Economic Disappointment Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: Recessions Are A Good Thing, Let Them Happen Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan...
Caught in a Debt Trap
We're caught in a trapI can't walk outBecause I love you too much baby Elvis Presley’s rendition of Suspicious Minds topped the record charts in 1969. The lyrics portray a romance that couldn’t work, but was also impossible to escape. That’s also a good way to...
Technically Speaking: COT – Everyone’s Back In The Pool: Q3-2020
As discussed in Hopes Of More Stimulus, the market has rebounded following the September decline. Unfortunately, the market has again gotten quite ahead of the fundamentals as money continues to chase performance. In the Q3-2020 review of the Commitment Of Traders...
Market Regains Footing On Hopes Of More Stimulus
In this issue of “Market Regains Footing On Hopes Of More Stimulus.” Hopes For More Stimulus Market Regains Its Footing Policies Over Politics Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: The Second Derivative Of More Stimulus Sector & Market Analysis 401k...
Timeline to the New Normal
Like everyone else, I am weary of this pandemic mess. I want to travel freely, enjoy dinner with friends, hug, and shake hands. And, of course, I want everyone who lost jobs and businesses to get them back. I wasn’t thrilled with the economy a year ago, but I’d take...
Technically Speaking: Why This Is Still A Sellable Rally, For Now.
In this past weekend’s missive “Trump Infects Markets Bounce,” we discussed even though the market had bounced off support, we still consider it a “sellable rally,” for now. The comment generated quite a few emails, mainly since we also...
Trump’s COVID Infects The Market Bounce. Is It Over? 10-02-20
In this issue of “Trump’s COVID Infects The Market Bounce, Is It Over?” Administrative Note Market Catches Trump’s COVID Infection. Does It Matter Who Wins The Election? Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: The Astonishing Lack Of Value In...
Debt Bugs and Windshields
"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion." —Ludwig von Mises Economic recovery is coming, we are told, because the economy has found a new equilibrium. We are supposedly adapting to the new-normal pandemic world,...
US economy and stock market at high risk due savings as a percentage of disposable income remaining elevated
During the month of July 2020, the savings rate as a percentage of disposable income was 17.8%. For the seven months ended July 31st, 2020, savings rates averaged 17.7% (harmonic mean of 13.7% & geometric mean of 15.6%). This compares to the 7.5% average for...
Market making new highs before election will predict Trump win
Before I begin explaining why I believe this to be the most probable outcome a few disclosures are necessary. First and foremost, at Glass Bead Capital we use a systematic risk management strategy which is designed to protect capital in the event that our opinion...
Great Reset Update: $50 Trillion Debt Coming
Amid all 2020’s new problems, it’s easy to overlook the old ones. Yet they are still there and, like a silently spreading virus, silently getting worse. One such problem is debt, and specifically government debt. All debt shares one common characteristic. A bill comes...
Technically Speaking: Market Realized No Help Is Coming
Last week, we asked the question: “Is everything ‘priced in?'” On Monday, the market realized no help is coming as the political backdrop worsened markedly. However, we need to back up a little bit to discuss how we got here. In the middle of August,...
The Pre-Election Correction Continues, Is It Over? 09-18-20
In this issue of “The Pre-Election Correction Continues, Is It Over?” The Correction Continues A Historical Look At Pre- And Post-Election Years Will Policy Matter Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: A Permanent Shift To Valuations Sector & Market...
Stall Speed Economy
When Cornwallis surrendered to George Washington at Yorktown in 1781, tradition has it that the British band played an old English children’s folk tune, “The World Turned Upside Down.” Painting by John Trumbull If buttercups buzz’d after the bee,If boats were on land,...
Technically Speaking: Is Everything “Priced In?”
Is everything “priced in?” Investors have gone “all in” with a disregard for caution. But with markets extended and overvalued what should investors do now? As discussed in this past weekend’s newsletter, investors got even more...
Correction Makes Speculators Even More Speculative 09-11-20
In this issue of “Correction Makes Speculators Even More Speculative.” The Correction We Warned About Speculators Get Even More Speculative Longer-Term Market Still Very Overbought Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: A Permanent Shift To Valuations...
On the Question of Current and Future Lockdowns
Simply discussing COVID-19 will undoubtedly make this letter controversial and, in some circles, political. That is not my intent. I truly believe that something affecting all of us so deeply should be kept in the scientific realm to the extent possible, not the...
The 1998 Correction & The Run To The Peak
Over the last few months, the markets have become engulfed by a palpable feeling of exuberance. I remember the last time investors were engulfed in a near “panic” to invest. It was 1998, where following a correction, the market began a seemingly endless...
How To Find Value In An Upside Down World
How To Find Value In An Upside Down World “When the world turns upside down, the best thing to do is turn right along with it.” – Mary Poppins Is Mary’s advice proper when it is your hard-earned wealth at stake? There is no doubt that investors are living in...
Market Finally Cracks. Is The Bull Market Rally Over? 09-04-20
In this issue of “Market Finally Cracks. Is The Bull Market Rally Over?” Market Finally Cracks Signs, Signs, Everywhere Signs Momentum Is Hard To Kill Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: 5-Reasons The Fed’s Policy Won’t Get Inflation Sector...
Inflation Virus Strikes Fed
One little-noted aspect of central bank policy is how rarely “policy” happens. Officials at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere long ago learned how to achieve their goals without actually doing anything. Creating perceptions is often enough to modify people’s behavior....
SCPA algo forecasting new low for Dow before US recession ends
Based on new empirical research findings the Dow Jones 30 (Dow) composite index is likely to soon peak and begin a steady decline to new lows in 2020 or 2021. According to the SCPA (Statistical Crash Probability Analyses) algorithm the probability is 90% for the Dow...
Technically Speaking: Margin Debt Confirms Bull Market
During the past couple of months, I discussed why the 35% decline in March was only a “correction” and not a “bear market.” Technically speaking, margin debt also confirms the bull market remains intact. However, therein also lies the risk of...
Yikes
John P. Hussman, Ph.D. President, Hussman Investment Trust September 2020 The most striking similarity between the 1920s and 1990s bull markets is the notion that traditional measures of stock valuation had become obsolete. – Edward Chancellor, Devil Take The...
Winter Is Coming. Is It Time For “Value” To Shine? 08-28-20
In this issue of “Winter Is Coming Is It Time For Value To Shine?” Market Is At Technical Extremes More Signs Of Exuberance Is There A Rotation To Value Coming. Winter Is Coming MacroView: March Was A Correction Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan...
#MacroView: A Tale Of Two Bull Markets
It’s a tale of two bull markets. One part of the market is trading as you would expect with near depressionary economic numbers. The only description for the other part is “insane.” In last week’s #Macroview, we discussed that “March Was...
Light in the COVID Tunnel
If you ever think you just can’t win, I know how you feel. I’m labeled both a doomsayer and a Pollyanna—sometimes in reaction to the same letter. In fact, I am neither. I used to be the “muddle-through” guy who acknowledged difficulty but expected eventual success....
Probability of V-Shape Recovery Low, Depression High
For the second quarter of 2020, US GDP experienced its worst ever contraction of 32%. The key question now is how fast will the economy recover? Morgan Stanley has emphatically stated that the economy would climb back to its pre pandemic February 2020 level by...
Technically Speaking: Why This Isn’t 1920. Valuations & Returns
Why this isn’t 1920 has everything to starting valuations and future returns. While, generally, I’m not too fond of comparisons between today’s markets and the past, Ed Yardeni made a comparison too bombastic to disregard in his blog: “We live in...
Tending The Portfolio “Garden” As Winter Approaches 08-21-20
In this issue of, “Tending The Portfolio Garden As Winter Approaches” Shortest Bear Market In History Signs Of Excessive Exuberance Why Investing Is Like Gardening Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: March Was A Correction Sector & Market Analysis...
More indications of good economic news
Economic news for the US this week showed more improvements, this time in the housing industry. If this trend persists, it should have a positive impact on the rest of the economy especially on retail sales of big-ticket items. It should help car and furniture sales....
#MacroView: March Was A Correction, Bear Market Still Lurks.
As we have been discussing, this past week, the S&P 500 index set an all-time high. Importantly, the breakout to all-time highs confirms the 35% decline in March was only a correction and not a bear market. The implications are important as the change of...
Business on the Frontline
I write this introduction from an all-too-short vacation in Montana (more below). This week I have asked my longtime associate Patrick Watson to step in and write Thoughts from the Frontline, offering his perspective as a small business owner. As you read this,...
Fundamentally Speaking: Earnings Don’t Support Bullish Thesis
With the second quarter of the 2020 reporting season mostly behind us, and with markets testing “all-time” highs, do earnings support the bullish thesis? Such is the fundamental question surrounding the debate over the record deviation between...
Consumer Sentiment Readings do not bode well for President or the market
The University of Michigan’s August consumer confidence readings do not bode well for Trump or the stock market. Confidence in the government’s economic policy fell to the lowest level since early 2017. The index had climbed to its highest level since...
“Close But No Cigar,” Bulls Fail To Capture Market Highs 08-14-20
In this issue of, “Close But No Cigar, Bulls Fail To Capture Market Highs” Close But No Cigar The Coming Income Cliff Hedging Risk MacroView: Why Soros Just Called The Market A Bubble Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter,...
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Statements made by Michael Markowski and Profitfromthecrash.com pertaining to returns made from investing in Airbnb, UBER and Snapchat are not indicative of a TRACK RECORD. They are examples for educational purposes only.