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Stumble-Through Jobs Market

Work has always been a fact of life. Paycheck-producing jobs are actually a recent development. Until the Industrial Revolution, most people lived on subsistence agriculture, sustaining themselves with whatever they could produce or working as slaves/serfs. The...

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The Blacker Swan

“A similar effect is taking place in economic life. I spoke about globalization in Chapter 3; it is here, but it is not all for the good: it creates interlocking fragility, while reducing volatility and giving the appearance of stability. In other words, it creates...

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Bear Trader Pro to increase subscriber profits

Bear Trader Pro, a professional version of Bear Trader will soon be available.  The Bear Trader will also continue to be available for subscription.  A professional version was needed since Bear Trader’s text messaged instructions for @market orders are sent before...

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RIAPro: 15-Investing Rules To Win The Long-Game

I wanted to share with you a post I wrote for our RIAPro subscribers (try risk-free for 30-days) on the 15-investing rules to win the long-game. The rather “Pavlovian” response to Central Bank interventions has led investors into a false sense of security with respect...

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Bear Trader Friday June 26th alert explained

You are receiving this message since the alert which was sent to Bear Trader subscribers and former Bull & Bear Tracker subscribers on Friday June 26th was out of the ordinary.      On Wednesday June 24, 2020, Bear Trader sent its first green alert to buy a long...

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Market Corrects As COVID Cases Surge 06-26-20

In this issue of “Market Corrects As COVID Cases Surge.” Market Holds Bullish Support From Bubble, To Bust, To Bubble The Problem With 2-Year Forecasts A Bearish Pattern Remains Portfolio Positioning MacroView: Rationalizing High Valuations Won’t...

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A Recession Like No Other

We just spent the better part of a decade wondering when the next recession would strike. The last two months we stopped wondering. It’s here and a grand council of esteemed economists has confirmed it. On June 8, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National...

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Where We Go from Here

Predictions are difficult, especially those about the future. That old proverb (often attributed to Yogi Berra) is right but you can’t live without making certain presumptions. You presume your car will start, your refrigerator will stay cold, the lights will turn on...

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Market Corrects As COVID-19 Cases Surge 06-12-20

In this issue of “Market Corrects As COVID-19 Cases Surge:” Market Correction Short-Term Excesses Reversed A Note Of Fed Forecasts The Bear Case Is Still Valid Technical Review Remains Bullish Portfolio Positioning MacroView: Rationalizing High Valuations...

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The Stumble-Through Economy

We are on the horns of a dilemma, caught between the Scylla and Charybdis, a rock and a hard place, the devil and the deep blue sea, the anvil and the hammer. The walls are closing in. We’re in a tight spot. All those metaphors (I could list more but will spare you)...

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Volatile market decline to soon begin

The reopening of the world economies last week and the headlines about every economist on the planet being wrong about Friday’s US jobs report resulted in a stock market buying stampede.   Based on the total job gains representing only 21% of the US jobs lost since...

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COVID-19: A Data-Driven Analysis

Should you wear a mask in public? This seemingly simple question immediately generates emotional, political, and social anxiety. It is just one of many provocative questions COVID-19 is forcing upon us. They should be simple, data-driven policy issues but many are...

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Are Investors Too Optimistic About A Recovery?

People tend to overlook the long-term damage being done to the economy. They think we will just have a "V" shaped recovery or a "U" shaped recovery, and things will be fine. I'm sorry, that is just not how it works. Recessions create output gaps, and those output gaps...

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Economics in Orbit

The history of humanity, at least as taught in most schools, is really about two seemingly opposite forces: human innovation and human conflict. The same intelligence that lets us accomplish great things also sets us against each other. But sometimes, we rise above...

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Bear Market? Or Just A Big Correction? 05-22-20

In this issue of “Was This A Bear Market? Or Just A Big Correction?” Still Stuck In The Middle What Defines A “Real” Bear Market? A Growing List Of Concerns Portfolio Positioning MacroView: Why Jeremy Siegel Is Wrong About Bonds Sector &...

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Rewinding the Tape

We finished the Virtual Strategic Investment Conference yesterday. I can honestly say it was simply the best conference I have ever attended or been privileged to host. The ability to bring together so many exciting speakers, something schedules would not have allowed...

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Reflection Week

I knew this letter’s topic months ago. It was going to be a review of the Strategic Investment Conference, which would have just concluded fabulously in sunny Scottsdale. Well, something intervened. Coronavirus precautions kept us from having an in-person conference....

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Fed can’t Fool Mother Nature!

The S&P 500’s rally from its March 2020 low to within 13.2% of its 2020 high has been primarily fueled by the US Federal Reserve’s monetary stimulus.  The Fed has and continues to spend trillions to provide the economy with liquidity and to artificially prop up...

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Why Assets Will Crash

The increasing concentration of the ownership of wealth/assets in the top 10% has an under-appreciated consequence: when only the top 10% can afford to buy assets, that unleashes an almost karmic payback for the narrowing of ownership, a.k.a. soaring wealth and income...

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Five Viral Lessons

We live in truly historic times. “There are decades when nothing happens, and weeks when decades happen,” says a quote usually attributed to Vladimir Lenin. It certainly fits now. For thousands of years, people who lived through what we call “history” didn’t realize...

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Market to Turn its Attention back to the Economy

On March 23rd in the darkest moments of the pandemic, I wrote an article called ‘light at the end of the corona virus tunnel’ in which I strongly believed that the market, after a bruising 34% decline in only a matter of weeks, had reached a bottom and it was time to...

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Prepare for the Era of Recrimination

To think that the economy is going to reaccelerate in the third quarter in a V-shaped recovery to the level where gross domestic product (GDP) was prior to the pandemic is unrealistic. Four years from now the economy will most likely recover to the same level of...

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The Figure-It-Out Economy

Market sentiment reflects human sentiment, which lately has been quite negative—understandably so, given the great uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus pandemic. A month ago, we didn’t know where all this was going but it was potentially serious. I can almost begin...

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Worldwide 1930s Style Depression Has Begun!

SCPA (statistical crash probability analyses) forecast:  100% probability the first worldwide economic depression has begun! World and US economies to decline through at least 2023.  These bold statements are based on statistical probability analyses of two new...

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Viral Thoughts

We are looking at a world with parameters bounded by pure imagination; where we go from here is anyone's guess. —Will Thomson and Chip Russell, Massif Capital Today’s letter will be another hop-around review of the crisis landscape. I’ll touch on several topics...

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Bull & Bear Tracker Notice

The good news is that the cumulative gains for conservative traders trading the inverse SH ETF last week was 1.9% and for aggressive traders who traded the inverse SPXS last week was 6%.The bad news is that due to extremely volatile market conditions the signals in...

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Repricing the World

The viral fog is starting to thin. US coronavirus case growth appears to be slowing, albeit at a tragically high level. Governments and businesses are thinking about the next stage. On the other hand, fog tends to return when the weather is right. Might this virus...

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Bending the Inflation Curve

“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output. … A steady rate of monetary growth at a moderate level can provide a framework under which a...

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Stock market relief rally high date extended

The date range for the SCPA’s forecasted relief rally highs for stock markets of the US, Japan, Germany, France, South Korea, and Canada to occur has been adjusted.  Based on the adjustment the SCPA’s new 100% statistical probability is that the relief rally highs...

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Notes from Lockdown

In times of change learners inherit the earth; while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists. —Eric Hoffer Greetings from Puerto Rico, where this frequent traveler is evidently home for an unusually long time. I want...

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Embrace the Bear!

Investors must embrace the bear.  A savvy investor or advisor can generate significantly more profits from a secular bear than a secular bull.  It’s also much easier to predict the behavior of a wild and vicious bear than a domesticated bull.   The new 2020 secular...

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Futu Releases Solid Earnings to Shaky Market

Futu Holdings Ltd. (Nasdaq: FUTU), a leading tech-driven brokerage in China, reported positive results last Wednesday for 2019 and for the fourth quarter ending December 31. Top executives also made the case in an earnings call for strong growth in 2020, despite the...

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Postcards from the Frontline

Unprecedented events are happening so fast, I barely know where to start. But let’s begin with a small one, noticeable perhaps only to me. Over the years I’ve received thousands of reader emails responding to my letters. I read and appreciate them all, even the...

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Crash event forecasting algo nails another one

In yesterday’s “Crash events forecasting also accurate at calling market tops and bottoms”, March 24, 2020, article the statistical crash probability analysis (SCPA) algorithm forecasted that the probability was 100% that the stock indices for the US, Japan, Germany,...

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Bull & Bear Tracker signal sell targets raised

My March 23, 2020,  “Probability is 87% that market is at interim bottom” article contained the projected targets for eight global stock market indices upon a significant market rally occurring.    Now that a powerful rally is now underway the targets have been...

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Light at the end of the Corona Virus Tunnel?

The SP500 has dropped 34% since its peak on February 20th amid the Corona Virus turmoil. I believe now is the time to begin buying stocks once again.  We are in the midst of the greatest market panic comparable only to 1929, 1987, and 2008. The level of fear has...

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The Beacons Are Lit

In the film version of Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, there’s a three-minute scene you should watch or re-watch. It is relevant to our situation today. Gondor needed to light the beacons for aid. Click here for video. At the other end of the beacons,...

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Coronavirus Is Not an Emergency. It’s a War.

This is a short midweek note, something I haven’t done for years. But as we all know, these are very special and difficult times. Below, I’ll give you two links. They describe the nature of the new coronavirus pandemic and its potential consequences. I have run this...

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Dip buyers, beware of sensational headlines!

Many investors are salivating to trade the dips in a stock market which is becoming increasingly more volatile.  It’s because Wall Street for the week ended March 13th according to the headlines had its worst week since 2008.  Its human nature to want to buy at fire...

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Coronavirus Helicopter Money

I write this letter early Friday morning after a week in New York visiting with many fellow market participants. And lots of phone calls, both to analysts and medical experts. I had originally planned a completely different letter but circumstances changed. Humility...

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Technically Speaking: On The Cusp Of A Bear Market

“Tops are a process and bottoms are an event” Over the last couple of years, we have discussed the ongoing litany of issues which plagued the underbelly of the financial markets. The “corporate credit” markets are at risk of a wave of defaults. Earnings...

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Chinese Coronavirus Changeup

In baseball, there is a kind of pitch called the “changeup,” designed to look like a fastball while actually going slower. The deceived batter swings too soon and misses. Strike, you’re out. The world has thrown a wicked biological changeup at the global economy. This...

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Stock market, a buy at October lows

Glass Bead Capital Management (Glass Bead) warned our readers and investors on January 23rd that the market was vulnerable to a correction and that it would be wise to take profits. We had deduced that the probability was fairly high that the market would provide a...

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COVID-19: A Crisis the Fed Can’t Fix

For the last 3+ years, I have maintained it would take an “exogenous” event to send the United States into recession. Historically suboptimal growth? Sure, but sub-3% growth isn’t a recession. The coronavirus obviously qualifies as an exogenous event. But that doesn’t...

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Did The Market Just Get Infected?

Did The Market Just Get Infected? MacroView: Japan, The Fed, & The Limits Of QE Financial Planning Corner: Part 2: Dave Ramsey Is Wrong About Life Insurance Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud,...

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Why Americans Want Socialism

As I write this, a self-proclaimed “democratic socialist” is leading the race for one of our major parties’ presidential nomination. The fact that so many Americans (especially young Americans) support Bernie Sanders ought to tell us something. A Quinnipiac poll out...

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Market Believes It Has Immunity To Risks

Market Believes It Has Immunity To Risk MacroView: Debt, Deficits & The Path To MMT Financial Planning Corner: Why Dave Ramsey Is Wrong About Life Insurance Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud,...

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Depending on the Undependable

The welfare of a nation can scarcely be inferred from a measure of [GDP].” —Simon Kuznets (who developed GDP), 1934 At the risk of restating the obvious, production should result in a product the producer can recognize. That’s the case even for intangible products....

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The Hits to GDP

Economists and investors are rightly obsessed with growth. We always want more of it. We worry it won’t come or, worse, might turn into contraction. Economists of all stripes, from Paul Krugman to Lacy Hunt, recognize economic growth cures all manner of ills. Yet,...

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Market Correction Goes Viral, Is It Time To Buy?

Market Correction Goes Viral Portfolio Position Review MacroView: Fed’s View Of Valuations May Be Misguided Financial Planning Corner: What You May Have In Common With Kobe Bryant Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook,...

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Dismissing the Experts

Regular readers know I often criticize so-called “experts,” usually economists or central bankers whose flawed decisions are punishing the rest of us. I find their expertise is not nearly as reliable as they seem to think. At the same time, I rely on experts whose...

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Q4 US GDP analysis

US fourth quarter GDP was up a mere 2.1%, unchanged from the preceding three-month period. The main drivers behind the modest growth were consumer and government spending, as well as residential fixed investment and exports. Interestingly, home sales, both new and...

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Nose Blind to Inflation

The human brain excels at taking shortcuts. Processing all the information our senses collect takes a lot of energy, so repetitive data gets lower priority. Things we see often fade into the background so we can notice new stuff. This is where we get phenomena like...

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Too Much Greed — Moving To The Sidelines

It has been a little over 3 months since our last commentary where we predicted that the market was likely to begin a big trending rally as we cleared almost 2 years of a range bound S&P500 and other major indices. Ranges are very important as they serve to...

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Recession Arithmetic: What Would It Take?

David Rosenberg explores Recession Arithmetic in today’s Breakfast With Dave. I add a few charts of my own to discuss. Rosenberg notes “Private fixed investment has declined two quarters in a row as of 2019 Q3. Since 1980, this has only happened twice...

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Looking on the Bright Side

We haven’t had a lot of good news lately. Or, more precisely, we haven’t seen a lot of good news lately, though it does exist. We don’t see it because both regular media and social media usually focus on the bad. That’s not entirely wrong. The survival imperative...

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Technically Speaking: This Is Nuts – Part Deux

In this past weekend’s newsletter, we discussed the exceedingly deviated price, and overbought conditions, not to mention valuations, as key reasons why we slightly reduced risk in our portfolios. “On Friday, we began the orderly process of reducing...

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This Is Nuts & Why We Reduced Risk On Friday

This Is Nuts Portfolio Position Review MacroView: Has The Fed Trapped Itself? Financial Planning Corner: By The Numbers For 2020 Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Catch Up On What You...

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Decade of Living Dangerously, Part 2

If living dangerously is your goal, just keep adding reasonable, manageable, prudent risks. Eventually they’ll add up to serious danger. Hyman Minsky showed how stability leads to instability. Humans have a way of reinterpreting stable periods that seemingly redefines...

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Market Flat In 2020 As Iran Trips Up Traders

Market Review & Update MacroView: Is This A Repeat Of 2018? Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Catch Up On What You Missed Last Week Market Review & Update The first trading day...

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Decade of Living Dangerously, Part 1

Welcome to the 2020s. Some weren’t sure we would make it this far, but we did. Now we face a new decade and new challenges. How we handle them will determine what kind of conversation we have in 2030. This concern for the future is one of the things that separates...

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Special Update: Market “Melt Up” Continues

Market Melt Up Continues Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Catch Up On What You Missed Last Week Market “Melt Up” Continues I am traveling this week with my family for our...

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Market And Investing Wisdoms For 2020

Last week, I posted our 2020 Outlook, which focused on the futility of trying to predict the future and the understanding of the current market risks headed into the next decade: “The reality is that we can’t control outcomes. The most we can do is influence the...

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Prelude to Crisis

Ignoring problems rarely solves them. You need to deal with them—not just the effects, but the underlying causes, or else they usually get worse. The older you get, the more you know that is true in almost every area of life. In the developed world and especially the...

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Technically Speaking: How To Pick Up A Porcupine

Last week, I discussed the registering of the monthly buy signals, which confirmed the bull market in the S&P 500 had resumed following the 2018 Fed/Trade induced sell off. Here is a snippet of our history in this regard: “In April of 2018, I penned an...

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The Trade War Is Over, Long Live The Trade War

New Newsletter Format Market & Portfolio Positioning Review  Demise Of The Dollar Santa To Visit Broad & Wall Rules For A Santa Rally Macro View The “Art Of The Deal” & How To Lose A Trade War New: Financial Planning Corner Sector & Market...

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Time to Do the Hard Thing

We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to...

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Inflationary Angst

According to the dictionary, the word angst refers to “a feeling of deep anxiety or dread, typically an unfocused one about the human condition or the state of the world in general.” It comes from a German word for “fear.” Two weeks ago I referred back to my...

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Market ripening for correction or crash

Based on my analysis of the S&P 500 technical chart patterns after new all-time highs were set in 1999, 2000, 2007, 2018 and 2019, the index is ripening for a significant correction or a crash.  The volatility increasing for a market that is making new all-time...

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Mauldin: The Calm Before The Economic Storm

The global economy is slowing. Germany, for instance, may already be in recession. GDP there dropped 0.1% in this year’s second quarter, with little reason to expect better from Q3 which we will learn soon. Whatever you call it, Germany is certainly not in a good...

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Advice Worth Taking

We’ve reached the Thanksgiving weekend, and as always, I’m thankful for loyal readers like you. I hope you are enjoying some quality time with family and friends. And because of the holiday, this week’s letter will be shorter than usual, but I think it will offer real...

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Recession? The Risk Isn’t Gone 11-22-19

Holiday Note Review & Update Recession Risk Isn’t Gone New: Financial Planning Corner Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Holiday Publication Note All of us at RIA Advisors,...

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Muddling for Solutions

Those who experienced the 1930s as adults are mostly gone now, but they left notes. We have a pretty good record of what that period was like. It wasn’t fun to begin with—then it got worse. This year, I’ve written several times about the 1930s parallels that Ray Dalio...

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The Road to Default

Nothing is forever, not even debt. Every borrower eventually either repays what they owe, or defaults. Lenders may or may not have remedies. But one way or another, the debt goes away. One of Western civilization’s largest problems is we’ve convinced ourselves debt...

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Technically Speaking: 4-Risks To The Bullish View

When I was growing up, my father, probably much like yours, had pearls of wisdom that he would drop along the way. It wasn’t until much later in life that I learned that such knowledge did not come from books but through experience. One of my favorite pieces of...

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For The Bulls, It’s Now Or Never 10-18-19

Now Or Never For The Bulls Bearish Case Has Teeth Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha It’s Now Or Never For The Bulls In April of this year, I wrote an article discussing...

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What about the Brexit?

Will Brexit happen? Yes, it will. Perhaps not on October 31 as planned, but it will happen before the end of this year. The actual departure of the UK from the European Union is not the main issue, however. More important is the reaction by the financial community and...

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The Good, The Bad & The Ugly

, The Good, The Bad & The Ugly The Ugly Not Really Bad, More Okay-ish The Good Hope For More Q.E. Will It Work Next Time The Fly In The Ointment Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha...

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#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 09-23-19

We know you get busy and don’t check on our website as often as you might like. Plus, with so much content being pushed out every week from the RIA Team, we thought we would send you a weekly synopsis of everything that you might have missed. The Week In Blogs...

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The Moment You Know You Know, You Know! 09-20-19

Market Review & Update The Moment You Know Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update Last week, we started our discussion by itemizing the list of all the things...

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Statements made by Michael Markowski and Profitfromthecrash.com  pertaining to returns made from investing in Airbnb, UBER and Snapchat are not indicative of a TRACK RECORD. They are examples for educational purposes only.