fbpx

Fed Chair Powell Just Said The Quiet Part Out Loud

Regarding the surprisingly strong employment data, Fed Chair Powell said the quiet part out loud. The media hopes you didn’t hear it as we head into a contentious election in November. Over the last several months, we have seen repeated employment reports from the...

read more

Choose Your Own Economy

If you’re a parent or grandparent, you may know of the “Choose Your Own Adventure” storybook series. Written in second person, they make “you” the hero. The reader makes choices as the story unfolds, leading to one of several possible endings. That format is...

read more

The Brutal Reality of Plunging Office Values Is Here

Commercial-property deals in the US are starting to pick up — at deep discounts that are forcing lenders around the world to brace for souring loans. The shakeout in the $20 trillion US commercial real estate market has long been delayed for a simple reason: No one...

read more

Divergences And Other Technical Warnings

While the bulls remain entirely in control of the market narrative, divergences and other technical warnings suggest becoming more cautious may be prudent. In January 2020, we discussed why we were taking profits and reducing risk in our portfolios. At the time, the...

read more

Mapping the US Regions With the Highest Inflation

Consumer-prices growth slowed in many US regions in January — although inflation isn’t coming down as fast as economists expected. Southern and Pacific states once again saw higher-than-average annual rates. East South Central — which includes Alabama, Kentucky,...

read more

Housing Is Unaffordable. Dems Want To Make It Worse.

The cost of housing remains a hot-button topic with both Millennials and Gen-Z. Plenty of articles and commentaries address the concern of supply and affordability, with the younger generations getting hit the hardest. Such was the subject of this recent CNET article:...

read more

Desperately Seeking Neutral

One of the more fascinating and mysterious parts of watching the Federal Reserve is the ongoing dialogue between Fed leaders and Wall Street. We imagine private meetings held in great secrecy. Those may in fact occur, but I’m not sure they are even necessary. The...

read more

S&P Index Set To Hit 5000 As Bull Run Continues

In September 2021, I discussed how the markets had set its sights on the S&P 500 index hitting 5000. To wit. “Yes, the rally off the COVID-19 bottom in March 2020 has been extraordinary, but we think there are further gains ahead. Solid economic and corporate...

read more

After Jamie Dimon warns of market ‘rebellion’ against $34 trillion national debt, Fed’s Jerome Powell says it’s past time for an ‘adult conversation’ about unsustainable fiscal policy

With the United States’ national debt closing in on $34.2 trillion, some of the biggest figures in the world of finance have been speaking out. But few expected Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to address the issue—at least until this weekend, when Powell spoke...

read more

Industrial Size Surplus

Modern economies, even small ones, are unfathomably complex. The number of variables is far more than any human can comprehend or any model can track. It’s really no wonder so many forecasts are wrong. In my 2024 forecast letter I predicted “A Muddle-Through Year.”...

read more

“Theory Of Reflexivity” And Does It Matter?

I received an email this past week concerning George Soros’ “Theory Of Reflexivity.” “I am not a fan of Soros, but this market has the look and feel of the dot com bust of 2000. In a few short words, the AI investment phenomenon is feeding on itself just as the...

read more

Going Bang!

In thinking about the 2020s, I often find myself looking back to the 1920s. That decade began with a deep recession/depression and ended with a stock market crash. While we now see the 1920s as a kind of “in between” period, people at the time didn’t know another...

read more

Next China: Stock Market Meltdown

Stocks have become the topic to avoid at dinner tables in China these days. The new year has seen anxiety over China’s slowing economy flare spectacularly in its giant stock market, with Shanghai dethroned as Asia’s biggest equity market and Hong Kong, where I’m...

read more

Clashing Crises

“Two is better than one” is a nice saying, but it really depends on what you’re describing. Two hurricanes or earthquakes aren’t better than one. Just one disaster at a time will suffice, thank you very much. The same holds true for man-made crises like the debt...

read more

Deficit Spending Keeping The Economy Out Of Recession

Economic growth continues to defy expectations of a slowdown and recession due to continued increases in deficit spending. In fact, the U.S. Treasury recently reported the December budget deficit, which shows the U.S. collected $429 billion through various taxes while...

read more

Q4 Earnings Season Gets Underway With Low Expectations

As we get ready to review the Q4 earnings report, stocks have rallied sharply over the last two months. As we have discussed previously, it will be unsurprising that we will see a high percentage of companies “beat” Wall Street estimates. Of course, the high beat rate...

read more

4 different ways of looking at the exact same economy

Stocks climbed last week, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.8% to close at 4,783.83. The index is now up 0.3% year to date, up 33.7% from its October 12, 2022 closing low of 3,577.03 and down 0.3% from its January 3, 2022 record closing high of 4,796.56. Often times,...

read more

No Way Out

Having now spent almost six months describing the historical cycles and massive debt that surround us, I find myself looking for an “easy” exit. Maybe one exists, but I haven’t found it yet. I think we’re stuck. The building will have to collapse around us before we...

read more

Inflation increases more than expected in December

Consumer prices increased more than expected in December as investors continue to look for signs the Federal Reserve can begin to cut interest rates. The December Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed prices ticked up slightly at 0.3% over last month, an increase from the...

read more

2024 Market & Economic Outlook According To Twitter

During the last week of December, I polled my Twitter followers for their outlook on the markets and the economy for 2024. The results were quite interesting, but before we look forward, we must look back at 2023 for context. Last year was not what the majority of...

read more

A Muddle-Through Year

First, let me wish you the best for the new year. I look forward to exploring it with you. It’s forecast season again, the time when people like me tell people like you what will happen this year. Sadly, we are often wrong. It turns out predictions are hard,...

read more

Looking Back and Forward

Should auld acquaintance be forgotand never brought to mind?Should auld acquaintance be forgotand auld lang syne? -Robert Burns It's that time of year when we start thinking about the old and envisioning the new. This has always been a special season for me, perhaps...

read more

Time to Consider a VAT?

First, let me wish you Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays or your favorite personal form of greetings for this time of year. I realize as you read this you are more focused on Christmas and the approaching New Year and family, so this will be a shorter letter than...

read more

Merry Christmas – Our Christmas Wish To You

I would like to take this opportunity to wish all of you, your family, and your loved ones a very merry and joyful Christmas. I also want to say “Thank You” for all of your support, loyal readership, and the friends I have made through sharing ideas over the last...

read more

Sell Cash, Buy Stocks As Powell Pivots?

A recent warning by YahooFinance warns investors to sell their cash and buy bonds and stocks now as the Fed pauses. To wit: “Get out of cash now. Take advantage of some of these incredible things in the fixed-income markets, especially in the belly of the curve. Take...

read more

Finding Revenue

If you really want to reduce the federal debt, you don’t have to convince Congress of anything. You can just write a check. The Treasury Department gladly accepts gifts from anyone so inclined. Few are, apparently. So far this year, donations totaled less than $1...

read more

Wealth Effect Increases and Recession Risks

What is the “wealth effect,” and why is it important? It is a great question and reminded me of “A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Colosseum.“ The hysterical play by Craig Sodaro features a naive Swiss farmer heading for Rome. His dream is to become a stand-up...

read more

The Markets Are Front Running The First Rate Cut

In October, the markets were down 10% from the July high, bond yields were touching 5%, and talk of a coming recession was rampant. What happened? Interestingly, a Wall Street axiom says, “Sell the last Fed rate hike.” The reason is that when the Fed starts cutting...

read more

Fair Shares of Debt

Don’t Tax You. Don’t Tax Me. Tax That Fellow Behind the Tree -   Attributed to Senator Russell B. Long, Louisiana ~1930s One thing you learn when writing about the debt problem, as I have been in recent weeks, is that many people think it’s not a problem at all. They...

read more

Wall Street Analysts Are Optimistic For 2024

It’s that time of the year where Wall Street polishes up their crystal balls and pin targets on the S&P index for the upcoming year. As is often the case, while Wall Street is always optimistic, the forecasts prove pretty wrong. For example, on December 7th, 2021,...

read more

Healthcare, a Minor Major Problem

Back in the Great Financial Crisis era, someone quipped that the federal government had become a giant hedge fund with an army attached. That wasn’t far off. Various agencies and entities were absorbing all kinds of risky assets to stabilize an overleveraged system....

read more

Recessionary Indicators Update. Soft Landing Or Worse?

I previously discussed a slate of recessionary indicators with high correlations to recessionary onsets. However, as we head into 2024, many Wall Street economists predict a “soft landing” or “no recession” outcome for the economy. Are these recessionary indicators...

read more

Pending home sales drop to lowest level in over 20 years

Contract signings for existing homes logged their slowest pace in more than two decades in October. Home sales under contract dropped 1.5% from the month before, according to the National Association of Realtors on Thursday. The 71.4 index reading is the lowest since...

read more

The Survival of the Republic

Thanksgiving brings to mind not only turkeys, family, and friends, but also should help us recall the remarkable ideas and philosophies that helped shape, and indeed were, the foundation for the United States of America as a Republic. In that spirit, we will forgo for...

read more

Socially Insecure

If you get beyond the political rhetoric [and assembled a group to solve Social Security] it would take them 15 minutes. It would take them 15 minutes only because 10 minutes was used for pleasantries. —Alan Greenspan, Speech to the Commercial Finance Association on...

read more

Democrats Should Start Worrying About The Deficit.

Democrats should start worrying about the level of debt and the increasing deficit. I previously discussed this issue when President Obama held the White House, when Marshall Auerback, via the Nation, wrote: “Delivering on big progressive ideas like Medicare for All...

read more

Walmart CEO says food deflation may come soon

New YorkCNN — Lower grocery prices may soon be coming for shoppers. Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said Thursday that the US food industry may be heading into a period of deflation after three years of punishing price hikes that have caused sticker...

read more

Speculator Or Investor? What’s The Difference?

Are you an “investor” or a “speculator?”  Over the last month, we have discussed the “false market narratives” that push investors to make portfolio mistakes. Such is why we previously discussed the “Investing Rules” needed to navigate volatile markets. This past...

read more

What Could Go Wrong?

Exploring federal budget data is a journey through endless rabbit holes, some of which are eerily close to Alice in Wonderland insanity. Countless variables interact in unexpected ways. Seemingly small changes can cascade into billions of dollars within a few years....

read more

Subscribe now to get:

  • Instant Alerts when new articles are posted

  • Free Investor Education Courses

Your subscription is FREE  

Only name and valid email address required

Statements made by Michael Markowski and Profitfromthecrash.com  pertaining to returns made from investing in Airbnb, UBER and Snapchat are not indicative of a TRACK RECORD. They are examples for educational purposes only.