A Doomsday Recession Mentality Is Keeping the S&P 500 Strong
Companies are ready for a recession that never seems to come Earnings surprises are on pace for their best level since 2022 North America’s largest companies are on track to post their best quarterly earnings relative to expectations in at least two years, as they’ve...
China Credit Shrinks for First Time, Loan Growth Disappoints
Credit contracts as government bonds record net repayment Shadow banking credit shrinks in sign of risk prevention: JLL China’s credit in April shrank for the first time as government bond sales slowed, while loan expansion was worse than expected in a sign of weak...
China Consumer Inflation Rises, Factory Price Drop Continues
China’s consumer inflation quickened in April, holding above zero for a third month, while industrial prices extended a long decline that highlights weak demand in the economy. The consumer price index rose 0.3% from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics...
The Dangerous and Lucrative Business of Space Clean-Up
Startups and governments are testing everything from kamikaze satellites to robotic grappling arms. A satellite the size of a milk carton may show a way to prevent Earth’s neighborhood from turning into a junkyard. The Nimbus, scheduled to soar on an Elon Musk rocket...
‘Seriously Underwater’ Home Mortgages Tick Up Across the US
Southern states see jump in share of very underwater homes A dozen states have at least 2,500 more than last year: ATTOM Roughly one in 37 homes are now considered seriously underwater in the US and that share is much higher across a swath of southern states,...
The Case for Investing in Nickel Miners
With powerful magnetic and conductive properties, nickel has rapidly graduated from an industrial metal in stainless steel to a critical mineral essential to electric vehicle (EV) batteries. As nations incentivize EV adoption and manufacturers increase production,...
Mortgage rates increase for fifth week in a row, and home buyers ‘will likely not see relief’ anytime soon
Mortgage rates rose for the fifth week in a row, as the Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose and averaged 7.22% as of May 2, according to data released by Freddie Mac on Thursday. That’s up 5 basis points from the previous...
Google lays off hundreds of ‘Core’ employees, moves some positions to India and Mexico
Google is laying off at least 200 employees from its “Core” organization, which includes key teams and engineering talent, CNBC has learned. As part of the unit’s reorganization, the company will hire corresponding roles in Mexico and India. “Announcements of this...
US Firms Announce Fewer New Hires in April, Challenger Says
2024 sees slowest first four months of hiring in since 2016 AI cited for 800 job cuts in April, highest since May 2023 US companies pared back hiring plans in April, with employers announcing the fewest new hires in the first four months of the year since 2016,...
The State of Crypto Is Anything But Strong
Industry boosters say they’ve learned their lessons from the last crash, but regulators need to move faster to protect a new wave of mainstream investors from the same old story. After more than a year, the freeze of a deep crypto winter has thawed. Bitcoin prices...
Walmart and other major US brands close more brick-and-mortar stores
More retailers are closing brick-and-mortar stores across the United States, with brands including Walmart and Dollar Tree citing unsustainable business models. Some 1,290 stores have either closed or are earmarked for closure in 2024. As many as 169 stores shut in...
US Consumer Confidence Slumps to Lowest Level Since July 2022
Conference Board index fell for a third month in April Expectations for more available jobs fell to lowest since 2011 US consumer confidence fell in April to the lowest since mid-2022 as Americans’ views of the labor market and their outlook for the economy...
Japan’s Factory Output Records Weakest Quarter Since Pandemic
Quarterly decline in industrial output steepest since 2020 Economists see slight economic contraction in January-March Japan’s factory output rebounded in March from a dismal start to the year, with the quarterly figure registering the weakest performance since the...
Sodium Batteries From Michigan to Challenge Lithium’s Grip
Natron Energy’s batteries boast cheap materials, fast response. Modern life runs on lithium-ion batteries, powering smartphones, laptops and electric cars alike. But as dominant as they’ve become, there are other ways to build a battery. Natron Energy Inc. will unveil...
Stocks Trade for 390 Minutes a Day. Increasingly, Only 10 Matter
A third of all S&P 500 trades now occur just before the close European research points to price distortion, liquidity issues The regular market for US equities runs for 390 minutes on a standard trading day. But at the rate things are going, eventually the last 10...
Japan’s Oldest VC Firm Eyes 200% Gain as Unicorns Proliferate
Jafco sees startups staying private longer to nab big IPOs Tokyo encouraging public to invest more in equities, startups Japan’s oldest venture capital firm is closing in on a target to triple the value of its investment, a sign of resurgence in the country’s startup...
It’s time to talk about the ‘dirty word’ on Wall Street as ‘whiffs of stagflation’ intrude on markets, chief strategist says
There's been a steady drumbeat of concerns about stagflation as recent data showed economic growth slowing sharply and inflation picking up. Now, Wall Street can't ignore that unpleasant subject as its presence is starting to be felt on financial markets, especially...
China Industrial Profits Drop as Demand From Overseas Stalls
Earnings fell on weakening exports and fading momentum Year-to-date profits rose 4.3%, slowing from rebound China’s industrial companies’ profits fell in March as exports flagged and deflationary pressures persisted, suggesting the economy’s stronger-than-expected...
Squint Your Eyes and US Inflation Data Actually Looks Worse
Core PCE picked up in March when drawn to two decimal places Compounding effects are large for year-over-year figures To the naked eye, a key US inflation metric held steady in March. But look a little closer at two or three decimal places and you’ll see that it...
New inflation reading reinforces Fed’s higher-for-longer stance
Another hot inflation reading reinforces that any near-term interest rate cuts are less likely as the Federal Reserve shifts to a higher-for-longer stance. The Fed's preferred inflation measure — the "core" Personal Consumption Expenditures index that excludes...
US Consumer Sentiment Falls as Inflation Expectations Climb
Short-term inflation views rose to 3.2% in April from 2.9% University of Michigan sentiment index at 77.2 vs 79.4 US consumer sentiment fell in April on dimmer views of personal finances and the economy as inflation expectations climbed. The University of Michigan’s...
Central Banks Will Probably Cut Only Half as Much as They Hiked
Higher-for-longer rate settings reshape market outlook Guggenheim favors corporate bonds, Standard likes German bunds Major advanced economy central banks are likely to take back less than half of the interest-rate hikes they rammed through over the past two years —...
Xi Warns Blinken Against ‘Vicious Competition’ Between US, China
China’s Wang Yi sees rising ‘negative factors’ in relationship Blinken warns Asian nation on supporting Russia’s war machine President Xi Jinping warned America’s top diplomat that the US shouldn’t target or oppose China, as the world’s largest economies wrapped two...
Rising Copper Demand Spurs Search for Alternative Climate Solutions
BHP’s bid for Anglo American shows that copper will be key for the energy transition as the world electrifies. But more needs to be done to ensure there’s ample supply. The metals industry is abuzz with a possible £31 billion ($39 billion) takeover of Anglo American...
Rapidly Weakening Yen Threatens Higher Power Bills in Japan
Yen’s decline is pushing fossil fuel import costs higher Power bills already set to rise as government curbs subsidies The yen’s relentless decline risks pushing power prices higher for Japan’s households and businesses. Japan buys its fuel in US dollars, and the weak...
Singapore Home Price Rises Slow, Rents Fall as Market Cools
Slowing economy may weigh on prices in coming months Rents remain high despite second quarter of declines Singapore home prices grew at a slower pace last quarter and rents fell, as the city-state’s property boom began to lose steam. Prices for private residences rose...
Microsoft-Backed Rubrik Leads Debut Trio Setting Steady IPO Pace
Cloud and data security company’s shares rise 16% on first day Plane parts maker Loar soars in debut while Marex treads water Rubrik Inc. rose 16% in its trading debut after the cloud and data security startup backed by Microsoft Corp. topped its fundraising goal with...
Why the World Needs More Copper — a Lot More Copper
Avoiding a climate catastrophe is often portrayed as a question of political will. Yet the push to reduce carbon emissions is also a daunting technical and societal challenge. Retooling power and transportation systems to run on renewable energy will require far...
The economy seems weaker than advertised, and inflation is still running hot—it’s the ‘worst of both worlds’
Economists were thrown for a loop on Thursday after new data revealed evidence of persistent inflation and a growth downshift in the U.S. Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose just 1.6% from a year ago in the first quarter, the Bureau of Economic...
Plunging Home Prices, Fleeing Companies: Austin’s Glow Is Fading
Oracle is moving to Nashville to be closer to health sector Austin suffering a slowdown in growth after pandemic boom Oracle Corp. is moving its headquarters out of the city. Tesla Inc. is pulling back after a rapid expansion. Almost a quarter of commercial office...
US Economy Slows and Inflation Jumps, Damping Soft-Landing Hopes
GDP advances an annualized 1.6%, slower than all projections First-quarter core inflation measure accelerates to 3.7% rate US economic growth slid to an almost two-year low last quarter while inflation jumped to uncomfortable levels, interrupting a run of strong...
Tiny Islands Look to Space to Save Them From Global Warming
Hello, I’m Bruce Einhorn in Hong Kong and welcome to Bloomberg’s weekly newsletter about the new space economy. Small nations are making impassioned pitches to space ventures that they need more services to survive. But first ... Three things you need to know today:...
PepsiCo Boosted by International Growth as US Sales Drop
North American food and drinks units suffer decline in volume Quaker Oats sales plunge 24% after salmonella-scare recall PepsiCo Inc. posted stronger-than-expected sales growth thanks to robust demand in its international divisions, while volumes dropped in North...
JPMorgan warns stock market sell-off has ‘further to go’
Stocks rebounded from their recent slump on Monday, but some bearish Wall Street strategists still see concerns that aren't going away anytime soon for investors. With expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates fading, signs of inflation remaining...
Profit momentum of Big Six tech companies to ‘collapse’ over 2024, UBS says
Profit growth momentum of the so-called Big Six technology stocks could "collapse" over the next few quarters, UBS Global Research strategists said on Monday, downgrading its rating on the mega-cap companies. Growth in earnings per share (EPS) of the "Big 6 TECH+"...
Magnificent Seven Earnings Arrive With Stocks at Critical Moment
Big tech shares shed over $930 billion since Nasdaq 100 peak Hopes high for Nvidia results despite worst fall in four years Big Tech earnings arrive next week, right in time for investors looking for an artificial intelligence-powered rebound in the slumping S&P...
Traders Are Cashing Out of Markets En Masse
Traders just pulled billions out of stocks and junk bonds Elevated market valuations are now stirring investor angst The great market rally of 2024 looks dangerously close to unraveling as Wall Street’s once-invincible bull brigade begins to withdraw its winnings....
Tech Stocks’ Biggest Weekly Rout Since 2022 Roils Markets
US equities sold off sharply on Friday, sending tech stocks to the biggest weekly loss in 17 months, due to tensions in the Middle East and worries over the outlook for interest rates. The S&P 500 index closed down 0.9%, dropping for the sixth straight session and...
P&G Slips as Slow Sales Growth Offsets Higher Profit Outlook
Third-quarter sales missed estimates and volumes were flat Company says productivity gains are bolstering profitability Procter & Gamble Co. sank on Friday after the maker of Pampers diapers and Dawn dish soap reported quarterly sales that fell short of Wall...
How Drones Are Revolutionizing the Economics of War [VIDEO]
How Drones Are Revolutionizing the Economics of War [VIDEO]Source: Bloomberg BullsNBears.com was founded to educate investors about the eight secular bear markets which have occurred in the US since 1802. The site publishes bear market investing recommendations,...
Vanguard Warns 10-Year Treasury Yields Risk Jump Back to 5%
Move past 4.75% may set disorderly selloff in motion Traders are pushing back bets on start of Fed easing cycle The Treasury market is nearing levels that risk triggering a large selloff, pushing yields on 10-year bonds back to 5%, according to Vanguard. “We are in a...
The New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel: A Foundational CMD Data Set
Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Daniel Mangrum, Joelle Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw As the Great Financial Crisis and associated recession were unfolding in 2009, researchers at the New York Fed joined colleagues at the Board of Governors and Philadelphia Fed...
South Africa Inflation Eases, Unlikely to Trigger Rate Cut
Consumer price index rose annual 5.3% in March; est. 5.4% Central bank governor remain wary of prcing pressure South Africa’s inflation rate dipped to a two-month low in March, but that is unlikely to persuade policymakers to cut borrowing costs as the drop is...
China’s Weak Beef Market Poses Risks for Top Supplier Brazil
Beef prices paid by Chinese dropped last year on weaker demand More than half of Brazil’s beef exports went to China in 2023 China’s beef imports are dwindling amid slowing consumption and ample domestic supply, dealing a blow to its biggest supplier Brazil. Official...
The Survey of Consumer Expectations: A Look Back at the Past Decade
Olivier Armantier, Gizem Koşar, Giorgio Topa, and Wilbert van der Klaauw It has been a little over ten years since we started releasing findings from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). In this post, we review some of the...
Global iPhone shipments drop nearly 10% as Apple’s 2024 woes continue
Global shipments of Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone fell nearly 10% in the first quarter despite a broader smartphone market recovery as the company continues to contend with rising challengers from China such as Xiaomi. According to market intelligence firm IDC, Apple’s Q1...
US Homebuilder Sentiment Stalls as Buyers Wait for Rates to Drop
Index of expected sales drops for first time in five months Homebuilders continue pulling back from sales incentives US homebuilder sentiment leveled off this month after a recent surge as would-be home buyers look for signs borrowing costs will fall. The National...
Can I Speak to Your Supervisor? The Importance of Bank Supervision
Beverly Hirtle and Anna Kovner In March of 2023, the U.S. banking industry experienced a period of significant turmoil involving runs on several banks and heightened concerns about contagion. While many factors contributed to these events—including poor risk...
Risk-Addicted Wall Street Funds Are Shaken as Bad News Piles Up
Geopolitical tensions push S&P 500 to worst week since October Brent crude and the dollar soar as traders flock to safety Just weeks ago, it all felt so easy. Jerome Powell was poised to kick off the great monetary pivot in earnest thanks to the steady demise of...
US Set to Ring Alarm Bells Over Chinese Industry on World Stage
Ministers of G-7, G-20 likely to discuss issue in Washington US, EU have worried EV industries at risk from China imports US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned China’s leaders that the nation’s manufacturing power is a threat to global economic stability. Next...
Big Tech’s Call for Light Touch on AI Falls Flat With Enforcers
OpenAI, Google executives lobby for regulators to step aside Antitrust enforcers pledge close scrutiny of AI partnerships Artificial intelligence could help cure cancer, ease energy insecurity and reduce poverty – if regulators would just get out of the way. That was...
China Blasts Kishida, Vows Response to Any ‘Wrong’ Japan Moves
China embassy to Japan releases statement on Kishida US visit Japan’s prime minister said China is challenge to peace China blasted remarks made by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida during his visit to the US this week, saying that any “wrong actions” taken by its...
Cathie Wood Muscles Into ChatGPT Boom With New OpenAI Stake
OpenAI is now 4% of Ark Venture Fund, just behind Anthropic Ark’s Winton calls foundation model progress ‘mind-blowing’ Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment Management has announced that it holds a stake in Silicon Valley artificial intelligence darling OpenAI, a bet that the...
Consumers are getting frustrated with stalling inflation
Inflation isn't falling as rapidly as it did last year, and consumers are taking notice. On Friday, the latest University of Michigan survey showed consumers expect inflation to hit 3.1% in the next year, an increase from expectations of 2.9% seen during March....
Cheap Mortgages Deter Workers From Relocating for $250,000 Jobs
New plants opening in the US south struggling to fill openings Workers don’t want to give up low-interest mortgages to move Manager recruits in the industrial Midwest are shunning offers to move to the American south — in part because they’re locked into super-low...
The Anatomy of Export Controls
Matteo Crosignani, Lina Han, Marco Macchiavelli, and André F. Silva Governments increasingly use export controls to limit the spread of domestic cutting-edge technologies to other countries. The sectors that are currently involved in this geopolitical race include...
A French Fund Manager Beating 97% of Peers Is Shorting L’Oreal
Says L’Oreal is fundamentally ‘good company’ but expensive Carmignac fund is long Adidas, Prada and short Nike, Burberry French cosmetic giant L’Oreal has returned close to 12% annually for the past 20 years, but Malte Heininger, manager of Carmignac’s Long-Short...
Sluggish New Zealand Card Spending Adds to Signs of Weak Economy
New Zealand consumer spending was sluggish in the first three months of the year, indicating the economy remains weak. First-quarter retail purchases on credit and debit cards rose 0.1% from the fourth quarter, when they declined 0.9%, Statistics New Zealand said...
Singapore Economy Expands Slower Than Expected in First Quarter
Singapore’s economy expanded slower than economists forecast, as a spending boost from increased tourism spurred by Taylor Swift concerts failed to offset a decline in manufacturing output. Gross domestic product grew 0.1% in the quarter ended March from the prior...
Monetary Policy and Money Market Funds in Europe
Marco Cipriani, Daniel Fricke, Stefan Greppmair, Gabriele La Spada, and Karol Paludkiewicz As shown in a past Liberty Street Economics post, in the United States, the yields of money market fund (MMF) shares respond to changes in monetary policy rates much more than...
Hedge Funds Are Dumping US Retailer Stocks
Discretionary among most net sold sectors last week: Goldman Retail ETF continues to slide after worst week in over a year Hedge funds are turning more bearish on US stocks and retailers amid uncertainty about how Americans are coping with persistent inflation and...
A Retrospective on the Life Insurance Sector after the Failure of Silicon Valley Bank
Fulvia Fringuellotti and Saketh Prazad Following the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, the stock prices of U.S banks fell amid concerns about the exposure of the banking sector to interest rate risk. Thus, between March 8 and March 15, 2023, the S&P 500 Bank index...
Global Venture Funding Drops 30% as China Helps Drag Market Down
Tech investors are cautious as economies, IPO markets sputter AI is a bright spot as investors bet on technology’s promise Global venture capital funding declined 30% in the first quarter, continuing its slump as investors remain cautious amid sputtering economies and...
US Small-Business Optimism Falls to a More Than 11-Year Low
NFIB sentiment index declined nearly a point in March to 88.5 Sales expectations deteriorated, inflation still a top concern US small-business optimism dropped to a more than 11-year low in March as sales expectations slumped and inflationary pressures remained a...
A patchwork of state AI laws is creating ‘a mess’ for US businesses
The laws governing artificial intelligence are increasingly different depending on where you are in the US, a mounting source of confusion for businesses racing to capitalize on the rise of AI. This year, Utah state lawmakers are debating legislation requiring certain...
Internal Liquidity’s Value in a Financial Crisis
Cecilia Caglio and Adam Copeland A classic question for U.S. financial firms is whether to organize themselves as entities that are affiliated with a bank-holding company (BHC). This affiliation brings benefits, such as access to liquidity from other affiliated...
US Small Businesses Dial Back Hiring Plans for a Fourth Month
The share of US small-business owners who plan to add jobs fell in March for a fourth straight month, pointing to softer demand for labor. Some 11% of firms said they intend to add workers in the next three months on net, down a percentage point from February and the...
Business Bankruptcies Jump as Slow Wave of Failure Speeds Up
This week ties a three-day record set in 2008, data show Spike reflects weakness in telecom, pharmaceutical industries Going bankrupt happens slowly, then all at once, to paraphrase an old saying. For businesses of all sizes, all at once is happening now. This week is...
Bank Stress From Empty Offices a ‘Slow Moving Train,’ Barr Says
Fed’s Michael Barr says effects likely to extend for few years Vice chair speaks at event in Washington on Wednesday The Federal Reserve’s Michael Barr warned that banks are likely to continue to face stress from the struggling commercial real estate sector for an...
Plunging Pickup Truck Sales Threaten Detroit’s Profit Engine
Stellantis, Ford and GM all showed weakness in first quarter Falling pickup sales part of broader shift to cheaper vehicles Sales of pricey pickup trucks at Stellantis NV, Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Co. faltered in the first quarter, a sign that high borrowing...
China’s Iron and Steel Association Calls for Production Cut to Stabilize Market
Iron ore prices fell to a ten-month low in April 2024. The drop was attributed to a warning from the China Iron and Steel Association about delayed steel demand recovery. Chinese steel mills were advised to take proactive measures to balance supply and demand in the...
US Services Growth Cools as Price Gauge Drops to Four-Year Low
ISM services PMI declined 1.2 points in March to 51.4 Measures of supplier deliveries and new orders decreased Growth in the US services sector eased in March for a second month while a gauge of input costs slumped to a four-year low. The Institute for Supply...
Physical Climate Risk and Insurers
Hyeyoon Jung, Robert Engle, Shan Ge, and Xuran Zeng As the frequency and severity of natural disasters increase with climate change, insurance—the main tool for households and businesses to hedge natural disaster risks—becomes increasingly important. Can the insurance...
Tesla’s Shrinking China Market Share Compounds Global Woes
US carmaker’s share has fallen below 7% from 10.5% a year ago Tesla relies on just two models in highly competitive market The global slowdown in electric vehicle demand that contributed to Tesla Inc.’s biggest-ever quarterly sales miss is hurting Elon Musk’s standing...
China Asks Traders to Curb Some Arrivals of Overseas Corn
Country seeks to bolster prices as farmers prepare to plant Corn prices in China near lowest in more than three years Chinese customs have asked some traders to limit deliveries of foreign corn into bonded areas in a move aimed at easing domestic oversupply and...
U.S. housing prices are likely to enter a long period of decline, advisory firm CEO says [VIDEO]
U.S. housing prices are likely to enter a long period of decline, advisory firm CEO saysSource: CNBC BullsNBears.com was founded to educate investors about the eight secular bear markets which have occurred in the US since 1802. The site publishes bear market...
A Million Simulations, One Verdict for US Economy: Debt Danger Ahead
Bloomberg Economics ran a million forecast simulations on the US debt outlook. 88% of them show borrowing on an unsustainable path. The Congressional Budget Office warned in its latest projections that US federal government debt is on a path from 97% of GDP last year...
BofA Sees Yen Plunging to 160 Per Dollar If Fed Delays Cuts
FX strategy head sees BOJ intervention with dollar-yen at 152 That is unlikely to support the yen without Fed rate cuts The yen could slide to hit 160 per dollar unless the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates this year, according to Bank of America Corp. Any...
Citadel’s Ken Griffin Sees ‘Modest’ Growth, Warns on US Debt
Griffin shared hedge fund’s outlook in letter to investors He said the firm predicts a ‘challenging’ economic landscape Citadel founder Ken Griffin told investors he expects modest economic growth in upcoming quarters and cited US national debt as a “growing concern...
Nutriband Inc. Begins Manufacturing for Major Sports Brand Licensee Fit for Life Group, Whose Collection of Partnered Brands Include Reebok, Adidas and New Balance
ORLANDO, FL / ACCESSWIRE / April 1, 2024 / Nutriband Inc. (NASDAQ:NTRB)(NASDAQ:NTRBW), a pharmaceutical company with a specific focus on transdermal technologies, today announces it has been engaged by and received a first order from Fit For Life Group (FFL), a major...
Learning by Bouncing: Overdraft Experience and Salience
Donald P. Morgan and Wilbert van der Klaauw Overdraft credit, when banks and credit unions allow customers to spend more than their checking account holds, has many critics. One fundamental concern is whether overdrafts are salient—whether account holders know how...
Pakistan Inflation Eases to Two-Year Low After Demand Slump
Central bank expected to start easing cycle after pace slows Prices ease after everyday food items double in three years Pakistan’s inflation pace eased in March for a third month in a row to the lowest in almost two years as record borrowing costs weakened economic...
Asia’s Factories See Uneven Recovery as China Enjoys Upswing
Taiwan, Japan, South Korea PMIs remain just below 50-threshold Business optimism improves as demand seen to rebound this year Asia’s manufacturing activity painted a mixed picture in March as new orders and output worsened for some amid still subdued global demand...
AI Craze Drives Record Quarterly Foreign Flows to Korean Stocks
Foreign inflows to South Korea are biggest in Asia after Japan Samsung, SK Hynix are among foreign funds’ favorites in 1Q Bets on artificial intelligence drove the largest quarterly foreign inflow to South Korean shares, contributing to a global rally in AI-related...
Japan Faces Risks From US, China Economies, Banking Head Says
China poses deflation risk; Trump policies may spur inflation Opposing rate paths in Japan, US may cause market dislocations Japan’s economy is at risk from price pressures from its two largest trading partners, according to the chief of the country’s banking...
China Home Sales Drought Persists With Little Recovery Sign
Sales from top real estate companies fell about 46% in March Nation’s property crisis has weighed on big builders, banks China’s home sales slump dragged on in March, signaling a much-hoped turnaround for the sector isn’t in sight yet. The value of new-home sales from...
Attack of The Naked Short Sellers – Mythical Beasts of The Night – or: How Meme-Stock Investors Went Cult-y
To paraphrase Mark Twain, it’s easier to fool people into believing they’ll make piles of money than it is to convince them they’ve been fooled. Here’s the true story of stock investors who smoked so much “hopium” they lost their shirts — and their minds. Story by Bob...
Charting the Global Economy: US Inflation Cools; Japanese Yen Stays Weak
A key measure of underlying US inflation favored by the Federal Reserve cooled last month, and consumer spending rebounded sharply. Earlier in the week, the collapse of a major bridge in Baltimore will cause weeks or months of transportation disruptions in the...
OpenAI Previews New Audio Tool That Can Read Text, Mimic Voices
The startup has decided not to release the feature more broadly due to safety concerns. OpenAI is sharing early results from a test for a feature that can read words aloud in a convincing human voice — highlighting a new frontier for artificial intelligence and...
Rush of Asset-Seizure Cases Puts Putin’s Tycoons on High Alert
Prosecutors open dozens of cases to seize tycoons’ holdings Russia seizes assets ranging from pasta to ferro-alloys plants Russian businesses are seeking guarantees from the Kremlin that they won’t face asset seizures and privatization reviews amid a growing list of...
Citi Strategists Downgrade US Tech Stocks as Rally to Broaden
Also cut financials but raise consumer discretionary stocks Strategists see defensive stocks benefiting from lower rates The US stock rally is set to broaden out beyond technology, according to Citigroup Inc. strategists whose outlook on the sector has turned more...
Warren Buffett’s Favorite Stock Market Indicator Is Flashing Red — Dangerously Close To Reaching The Number He Says Is ‘Playing With Fire’
In the realm of stock market indicators, the Buffett Indicator stands out, especially when it flashes red. Named after Warren Buffett, the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and a figure synonymous with investing acumen, the indicator compares the total market...
China Vanke Profit Tumbles 46%, Vows to Cut Debt By $14 Billion
China Vanke Co.’s profit tumbled more than analysts expected last year and it vowed to slash debt by almost $14 billion, as the embattled developer tries to stave off default amid a protracted housing crisis. Net income attributable to shareholders shrank 46% to 12.2...
JPMorgan Says Stocks Are So Crowded They May Crack at Any Time
Dubravko Lakos-Bujas sees more risks, fewer sources of upside More risks are ‘hovering in the background,’ strategist warns It’s the talk of the stock market: What will be the sign that the five-month rally in US equities is coming to an end. But if you ask JPMorgan...
Swiss Banks Risk Significant Losses From Commercial Real Estate, Watchdog Finma Says
Banks exposed to falling property prices, regulator warns Investment real estate loans to get higher risk weighting Swiss banks face a “significant loss potential” in the event of corrections on property markets, financial regulator Finma said. Many lenders have a...
AI Is Making Financial Fraud Easier and More Sophisticated, US Treasury Warns
Agency will look at ways to improve cross-agency coordination Gaps identified in capabilities of small firms versus large Artificial intelligence is making it easier for fraudsters to carry out more sophisticated attacks on financial firms, the Treasury...
Fisker Slashes EV Prices as Much as 39% in Fight for Survival
Fisker Inc. dramatically reduced the price of the Ocean sport utility vehicle — its only model — as the electric-car maker struggles to stay in business. The biggest cut the US company is making applies to the top-end version of the Ocean, called Extreme. Fisker will...
Deposits and the March 2023 Banking Crisis—A Retrospective
In this post, we evaluate how deposits have evolved over the latter portion of the current monetary policy tightening cycle. We find that while deposit betas have continued to rise, they did not accelerate following the bank runs in March 2023. In addition, while...
Technical Measures And Valuations. Does Any Of It Matter?
Technical measures and valuations all suggest the market is expensive, overbought, and exuberant. However, none of it seems to matter as investors pile into equities to chase risk assets higher. A recent BofA report shows that the increase in risk appetite has been...
Alibaba Scraps Logistics Arm’s IPO After Market Turmoil Worsens
The company is raising capital through other avenues now The move follows the surprise retreat from a cloud arm listing Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. called off an initial public offering for its Cainiao logistics arm in Hong Kong, shelving a $1 billion-plus deal in a...
US Faces Inflationary Risks From China Factory Boom, NY Fed Says
New York Fed economists highlight risks from China policy China is overseeing a surge in industrial investment China’s effort to boost manufacturing and shore up the economy amid a real estate slump could put “meaningful upward pressure” on US inflation and push back...
Exodus From Thai Stocks Worsens on Deepening Corporate Setback
Outflows from stocks were the most in the region this year Political uncertainties add to economic woes to dim outlook A market revival for Thailand just isn’t coming. The nation’s first election since 2019 was supposed to be the catalyst to drive economic growth and...
What Happens to U.S. Activity and Inflation if China’s Property Sector Leads to a Crisis?
A previous post explored the potential implications for U.S. growth and inflation of a manufacturing-led boom in China. This post considers spillovers to the U.S. from a downside scenario, one in which China’s ongoing property sector slump takes another leg down and...
Tim Cook’s Love for China Helps Xi Fight Fears of Economic Slump
Executives flock to Beijing at start of a forum-filled week China’s premier offers little new on policy steps amid angst China’s efforts to counter the downbeat narrative about a structural slowdown in the world’s second-biggest economy got a boost from enthusiastic...
Australia consumer mood darkens anew in March – survey
SYDNEY, March 26 (Reuters) - Australian consumer sentiment eased from 20-month highs in March as worries about the economic outlook and family finances returned to darken the mood, a survey showed on Tuesday. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment...
Fisker Delisted by NYSE as EV Maker Races to Save Itself
Price fell to 9 cents before shares were halted Monday morning EV maker’s talks with automaker for investment were terminated The New York Stock Exchange announced Monday it was suspending trading of Fisker Inc. stock after the electric vehicle startup’s shares sank...
Wall Street just gave its highest year-end forecast yet for the S&P 500
Wall Street has a new high water mark for the S&P 500 (^GSPC). Oppenheimer chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus now sees the benchmark index ending the year at 5,500, reflecting a roughly 5% increase from Friday's close. The call comes after a surge in...
What if China Manufactures a Sugar High?
While the slump in China’s property sector has been steep, Chinese policymakers have responded to the falloff in property activity with policies designed to spur activity in the manufacturing sector. The apparent hope is that a pivot toward production-intensive growth...
Could Moving Out of Expensive States Lead To a Housing Market Crash?
The American dream of homeownership is becoming increasingly elusive in many parts of the country. As people flee expensive states in search of affordability and quality of life, they’re also unknowingly sowing the seeds for potential housing market instability. This...
Powering the AI
If, like me, you’re old enough to remember the 1990s internet bubble, today’s AI excitement might be giving you flashbacks. The parallels are unmistakable. Back then, a new technology was grabbing public interest and investment dollars because it promised to...
Retirement Crisis Faces Government And Corporate Pensions
It is long past the time that we face the fact that “Social Security” is facing a retirement crisis. In June 2022, we touched on this issue, discussing the stark realities confronting Social Security. “The program’s payouts have exceeded revenue since 2010, but the...
Bill Gross Laments ‘Excessive Exuberance’ as Stocks Surge
Pimco co-founder notes stocks unaffected by higher real yields Bonds are unattractive because there’s ‘too much supply’ Bill Gross warned that investors are in for a bumpy ride as “excessive exuberance” sweeps financial markets. The S&P 500 Index surged above...
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—March 2024
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since December 2023. As usual, we wish to remind our...
Japanese Savers Have a Quadrillion Yen Stashed Away. Here’s How Much That Is
As Japanese equities soar to record highs after a decadeslong slump, the government is now trying to encourage retail investors to put their one quadrillion yen in cash savings to work in the stock market. The latest Bank of Japan quarterly survey showed that...
China on Track to Be Ready to Invade Taiwan by 2027, US Says
China is building its military and nuclear arsenal on a scale not seen since World War II and all signs suggest it’s sticking to ambitions to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, a top US admiral testified. Despite Beijing’s economic challenges, its official defense...
How the US Economy Is Doing Depends on Your Politics
Consumer sentiment was once a reliable predictor of election outcomes. Not anymore. The way Americans feel about the economy is now largely determined by party affiliation. During Donald Trump’s administration, consumer sentiment plunged among Democrats and surged...
Magnificent Seven? It’s More Like the Blazing Two and Tepid Five
Nvidia and Meta have pulled away from the rest of the once-hot group as investors focus on AI. For more than a decade, the stock market has been supercharged by a handful of technology behemoths that have offered the promise of hypergrowth. You know them: household...
Young Chinese Ease Their Angst Over Economy by Playing Lottery
Ticket sales surged as youth unemployment climbed to record Nation’s young face tougher economic climate than parents did Lottery shops in China are ditching bland storefronts to reinvent themselves as hipster hangouts, with slogans that tempt youngsters hit by an...
US Offers $600 Million Loan to Australian Rare Earths Project
Move to expand critical minerals supply chain away from China Offer conditional on company obtaining environmental approvals A US-backed lender has offered an Australian miner $600 million in loans to develop a rare earths project, the latest move to expand the...
China on Track to Be Ready for Taiwan Invasion by 2027, US Says
China is building its military and nuclear arsenal on a scale not seen since World War II and all signs suggest it’s sticking to ambitions to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, a top US admiral testified. Despite Beijing’s economic challenges, its official defense...
Gucci owner Kering tanks 14% after Asia profit warning, dragging down Europe luxury brands
Shares of French luxury group Kering plunged 14% on Tuesday after the company warned that Gucci sales look set to fall 20% year-on-year in the first quarter, amid declining Asia transactions. The rare profit warning forecasts overall group revenues to drop 10% in the...
Chinese Solar Manufacturer Cancels $1.3 Billion Factory
Chinese solar manufacturer Lingda Group Co. has terminated plans to build a new 9.15 billion yuan ($1.3 billion) cell production plant as severe overcapacity threatens a wave of bankruptcies and consolidations in the industry. The announcement Tuesday comes just days...
China Youth Unemployment Rises in February After Data Revamp
China’s youth unemployment rate ticked up in February as the jobs market for recent graduates remains under pressure in the world’s second-largest economy. The jobless rate hit 15.3% last month for people aged between 16 and 24 years old, a National Bureau of...
Blackout Of Buybacks Threatens Bullish Run
With the last half of March upon us, the blackout of stock buybacks threatens to reduce one of the liquidity sources supporting the bullish run this year. If you don’t understand the importance of corporate share buybacks and the blackout periods, here is a snippet of...
‘Relief’: What Economists Are Saying About Canada’s Inflation Surprise
Canada’s inflation rate decelerated to 2.8% in February, a positive development for central bank policymakers who’ve been waiting for more proof that their campaign of higher interest rates is working. It’s the first time the country has had two straight months of...
Siemens Warns Persistent China Slowdown Weighs on Orders
Key digital industries unit sees slower-than-expected business Shares drop most in seven months after CFO flags muted demand Siemens AG fell the most in seven months after flagging disappointing demand in China for its key digital industries division. New business for...
BofA’s CEO Says Commercial Real Estate Will Be ‘Slow Burn’
Will take time for banks to work through CRE loans: Moynihan ‘We’re careful in how we underwrite as an industry,’ CEO says Bank of America Corp.’s Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan said it’ll take time for the banking industry to work through issues with...
China Releases Action Plan to Attract Foreign Investment
China’s State Council released an action plan to further open up the Chinese market to foreign firms after overseas investment fell to record lows last year. The State Council called on local authorities and government departments to come up with timetables and...
China Bond Frenzy Roars Back as Yield Falls Toward 19-Year Low
Government debt rally resumes after taking one-week break China may cut reserve ratio as it sells special bonds: Nomura A recent bull run in China’s government bonds is making a comeback after a one-week break, a sign that traders are getting over policymakers’...
The Fed Has a Lot of Questions to Answer About Its Balance Sheet
Officials will have an in-depth conversation on QT this week Fed likely to discuss when and how to taper asset runoff The Federal Reserve will begin in-depth discussions about its balance sheet this week, including when and how to slow the pace at which the central...
IMF Is Lending Near Record $150 Billion to Counter Debt and Wars
Egypt, Ukraine, Argentina are among the fund’s top borrowers Higher interest rates, geopolitical conflict fueling crises The International Monetary Fund is lending near a record amount to almost 100 countries, evidence of its growing role as a backstop against the...
AI Driving US Power Growth Forecast by 81%, NextEra Says
Renewable generation growth seen increasing threefold NextEra CEO speaks at CERAWeek energy conference in Houston The biggest US wind and solar farm developer expects the growth rate of the demand for electricity to soar to keep up with artificial intelligence,...
Morgan Stanley Warns US Stocks at Risk in ‘Dollar Regime Shift’
Easy financial conditions, strong dollar have boosted stocks But weakening greenback threatens to weigh on equity multiples The chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management has a warning for stock bulls: the structural forces weighing on the dollar are...
More Americans Doubt They’ll Get Approved for Auto, Home Loans
NY Fed survey finds rising demand for consumer credit broadly About a third think they’ll get rejected to refinance mortgage Americans increasingly doubt they’ll get approved for a loan to buy a car or refinance a mortgage, according to a survey conducted by the...
Fed Crushes Household Net Interest Income in Break From Past
Unlike past cycles, debt costs rose more than interest income Burden of interest falls hardest on lower-wealth households When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, US households — in aggregate — usually get a boost to interest income that outweighs the extra...
Top Solar Firm Longi Plans Thousands of Job Cuts on Glut
Move follows surge in capacity, competition across industry Analysts see potential rebound by late 2024 on consolidation China’s Longi Green Energy Technology Co., the world’s largest solar manufacturer, is cutting almost one-third of its staff to slash costs in an...
China’s Growth Bump May Dent Urgency for More Stimulus
Economy seen as stabilizing but consumer demand remains weak Production, investment strength may delay stimulus: economists China’s strong factory output and investment growth at the start of the year raised doubts over how soon policymakers will step up support still...
China’s all-important property market shows no sign of rebound in new year
Hong KongCNN — China’s key real estate sector hasn’t shown much improvement following a flurry of government measures taken to boost the industry, even as other parts of the economy seem to be stabilizing. New property sales reached a total of 1.06 trillion yuan...
A Valuation Conversation
You may have noticed the stock market rising lately. Much of the gain isn’t so much “the market” as a handful of mega-cap stocks. Nonetheless, the bulls are clearly in charge. The question is how long they will stay there. History suggests longer than many market...
Household Equity Allocations Suggests Caution
Household equity allocations are again sharply rising, as the “Fear Of Missing Out” or “F.O.M.O.” fuels a near panic mentality to chase markets higher. As Michael Hartnett from Bank of America recently noted: “Stocks are up a ferocious +25% in 5 months, which has...
China Economy Likely Had Muted Start as 5% GDP Goal in Focus
Headline retail sales, industrial output growth seen slowing Faster growth will be needed for rest of 2024: ANZ’s Yeung China’s economic activity was likely mixed at the start of the year with property remaining a major drag, raising doubts about the nation’s ability...
TSMC’s 110% Rally Draws Caution, Even From the Bulls
The stock has traded at overbought levels for about two months TSMC shares at largest-ever premium to consensus price target The rapid ascent in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is making it harder to ignore risks for the world’s largest contract chipmaker, even...
Money-Market Assets Rise to Fresh Record for Third Straight Week
Total climbed to $6.108 trillion in the week to March 13: ICI Prime institutional funds saw second straight week of outflows Money-market fund assets rose to a fresh record high on expectations short-term rates will remain elevated for longer after traders reined in...
California Adds 250,000 Fewer Mostly High-Pay Jobs Than Thought
California’s high-paying industries created far fewer jobs than previously thought, as a sharp downward revision cut the number of positions in professional services, finance and information by about 250,000 compared with initial reports. The state added only 50,000...
An $80 Billion Crash in India’s Small Caps Flashes Warning Signs
BSE’s small cap index is down more than 11% from a record high Regulators are concerned about potential for bubbles A sharp correction in small-cap stocks portends souring risk appetite on the broader Indian market, which is now an underperformer in Asia Pacific after...
What are AI Hallucinations and how to prevent them?
You’re likely already aware of AI hallucinations. Perhaps you’ve seen a funny chatbot response blasted on Twitter. While they may be amusing, they do create real risks to AI integrity. Imagine asking an AI for a recipe and it suggests chlorine gas or any poison (yes...
South Africa Set to License 60 Crypto Platforms by Month-End
More than 300 crypto-asset providers sought permits, FSCA says FSCA to use existing financial-services law to oversee crypto South Africa will license about 60 cryptocurrency platforms by the end of the month, putting it among the first nations on the continent to...
Soaring Denver-Area Rents Spur $200 Million Student Housing Bond
Colorado School of Mines invests in 800-bed sophomore dorm Growing trend of colleges solving affordable housing shortage The Colorado School of Mines is turning to the muni market for the second time in six months to address a housing shortage for its growing campus...
Iron Ore Rout Sets Up Test of $100 as China Concerns Escalate
Steelmaking ingredient tumbles by more than 5% on Wednesday Cost support set to kick in below $100 a ton, CBA’s Dhar says Iron ore extended a slide as China’s economic prospects weighed on the steelmaking ingredient, with futures nearing $100-a-ton levels that could...
Digital Currency And Gold As Speculative Warnings
Over the last few years, digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution of the market into a “casino” following the pandemic, where retail traders have increased their speculative...
Americans’ Financial Insecurity Is at a Record, Survey Says
An annual Northwestern Mutual survey finds financial discipline has gone down amid higher costs. Feelings of financial insecurity among Americans have reached their highest point in at least a decade. A third of American adults in Northwestern Mutual’s 2024 Planning...
China EV Makers Woo Buyers With In-Car Beds, Kitchens and Drones
Major automakers look to high-tech features beyond drivability Country’s cut-throat industry has had sluggish start to year In China, electric vehicles with built-in fridges and even in-car karaoke systems are considered passé. Instead, carmakers are turning to...
China’s consumer prices rebound thanks to Lunar New Year spending boom, but deflationary risks still loom
Consumer price index (CPI) grows by 0.7 per cent year on year in February, beating forecasts and marking first rise following six months of decline However, factory-gate prices fall for 17th straight month in what analyst describes as ‘warning signal’ that deflation...
Chinese Buying Set the Stage for Gold’s Latest Record Run
Chinese consumers and central banks have bolstered gold market Timing of Fed pivot to cutting rates remains key gold driver This week’s gold rush may have been triggered by bets on the US Federal Reserve’s long-anticipated pivot to looser monetary policy, but the...
Congress Passes $460 Billion Funding Deal, Avoiding Shutdown
Conservatives irate over lack of major spending cuts in bill Remaining parts of the government now face March 23 deadline The US Senate approved a $460 billion funding package, sending it to President Joe Biden in time to sign before a looming Saturday partial...
Venezuela’s Vice President Rejects Private Deflation Report
Central bank posted lowest monthly CPI in almost 12 years The country is experiencing gradual economic recovery, VP says Venezuela’s Vice President Delcy Rodríguez on Friday rejected the findings of an opposition-led research group that showed consumer prices slipped...
Higher for Longer?
“There is a difference between you and me. We both looked into the abyss, but when it looked back at us, you blinked.” -Batman, referencing Nietzsche in 2010’s Justice League: Crisis on Two Earths -My first thought on the quote: Think Jerome Powell and the FOMC The...
Presidential Elections And Market Corrections
Presidential elections and market corrections have a long history of companionship. Given the rampant rhetoric between the right and left, such is not surprising. Such is particularly the case over the last two Presidential elections, where polarizing candidates...
Stablecoins and Crypto Shocks
In a previous post, we described the rapid growth of the stablecoin market over the past few years and then discussed the TerraUSD stablecoin run of May 2022. The TerraUSD run, however, is not the only episode of instability experienced by a stablecoin. Other...
China’s Global EV Domination Is Just Beginning
And the West isn’t ready for it. On a recent Monday, when a generically named Chinese ship called the Explorer No. 1 docked in the German North Sea port of Bremerhaven, it may have inaugurated a new era in the global economy. What was special about the vessel was not...
Money-Market Assets Hit Fresh Record for Second Week
Total climbed to $6.08 trillion in the week to March 6: ICI Institutional funds drove outflows from prime segment Money-market fund assets rose to a fresh record high for the second straight week on expectations short-term rates will remain elevated for longer after...
US household wealth soars to record on booming stocks
(Reuters) -U.S. household wealth rose to a record of roughly $156.2 trillion at the end of 2023 thanks to a surging stock market that offset a drop in property market values, the Federal Reserve said on Thursday. Household net worth rose about 3.2% in the period from...
Will the Moderation in Wage Growth Continue?
Wage growth has moderated notably following its post-pandemic surge, but it remains strong compared to the wage growth prevailing during the low-inflation pre-COVID years. Will the moderation continue, or will it stall? And what does it say about the current state of...
A Brief History of Secondary Stock Sales
FROM ONE-OFFS TO EMPLOYEE TENDER OFFERS In Silicon Valley, a tender offer that allows longtime employees at high-performing startups to get some liquidity is fast becoming an expected benefit. While secondary stock sales have always been possible, their popularity—and...
Frenzy Over AI Drives Doubling of Chip Maker Options Trading
Nvidia accounted for 80% of SOX options trades in February Options trading last month jumped sevenfold from year earlier Options trading in semiconductor stocks is exploding as investors bet on the hottest thing in equity markets these days: artificial intelligence....
OECD Warns About Debt Market Danger as Maturity Wall Looms
About 40% of government, corporate bonds mature in three years Debt grows at time when central banks reduce holdings Global bond markets are facing significant challenges as governments and companies have to refinance about 40% of maturing debt in the coming three...
Google’s Gemini debacle a make-or-break moment, analyst says
Analyst says Google's reputation is on the line with Gemini fix The bungled rollout of Google's new artificial intelligence tool Gemini could end up being either a curse or a blessing for the Alphabet-owned tech giant, according to an analyst who owns the stock....
Nvidia ‘Bubble’ Talk Spreads to ESG Fund Managers Who Rode Highs
ESG fund exposure to Nvidia has dropped since mid-2023 Concern is that growing retail presence ‘portends bubble’ Concerns that Nvidia Corp.’s stratospheric gains might be unsustainable have spread to ESG investment managers who beat the market last year by betting big...
Valuation Metrics And Volatility Suggest Investor Caution
Valuation metrics have little to do with what the market will do over the next few days or months. However, they are essential to future outcomes and shouldn’t be dismissed during the surge in bullish sentiment. Just recently, Bank of America noted that the market is...
China’s Bullish 5% Growth Goal Seen as ‘Target Without a Plan’
Government work report lacks specifics on property, deflation Economists say more emphasis needed on boosting consumption China set a bullish target of around 5% growth this year as top leaders try to boost confidence in the world’s second-largest economy. But for...
US Services Growth Cools While Orders, Business Activity Pick Up
ISM services PMI decreased 0.8 point in February to 52.6 Employment measure declined; gauge of prices paid dropped Growth in the US service sector cooled in February, partly due to a decline in employment even as orders and business activity quickened. The Institute...
Apple’s iPhone Woes in China Deepen With a 24% Sales Plunge
iPhone slipped to fourth place in China in first weeks of 2024 Apple focusing on other big bets like AI, Vision Pro headset Apple Inc.’s iPhone sales in China fell by a surprising 24% over the first six weeks of this year, according to independent research that may...
Expectations and the Final Mile of Disinflation
In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. economy experienced a swift recovery accompanied by a sharp rise in inflation. Inflation has been gradually declining since 2022 without a notable slowdown in the labor market. Nonetheless, inflation remains above...
Americans Now Pay as Much Interest on Other Debt as on Mortgages
Bills for consumer debt service hit record high this year Mortgage burden still near historic lows with locked-in deals US households are now paying roughly as much interest on other kinds of debt, from credit cards to student loans, as they are on their mortgages,...
What China’s 2024 Policy Goals Mean for Ties With the US
Work reports focus on tech innovation, defense spending Key for foreign firms is ‘full, timely’ reform rollout: AmCham China’s big annual policy report shows it may have to play nice with the US this year to counter its economic headwinds, though ambitions to ramp up...
Chinese Stocks Extend Gains in Afternoon as ETF Turnover Spikes
Mainland-listed shares climb while those in Hong Kong fall China’s 5% growth traget a disappointment to some investors Some exchange-traded funds tracking Chinese stocks saw a surge in turnover, a sign that state-backed funds are supporting the market after some...
China Defense Spending to Climb 7.2% as Xi Pursues Buildup
Increase in military expenditure is the biggest in five years Corruption is raising questions about nation’s armed forces China’s defense spending will grow by 7.2% in 2024 — the most in five years — an increase that comes amid signs corruption is undermining a...
GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks skid as China’s NPC disappoints, bitcoin nears record
TOKYO, March 5 (Reuters) - Chinese stocks stumbled on Tuesday, dragging Asian peers with them, as investors showed their disappointment at Beijing's plans to support the economy as its week-long annual session of parliament, the National People's Congress, got...
JPMorgan Sees ‘Froth’ in US Stocks, While Goldman Says Rally Justified
Marko Kolanovic warns equities, Bitcoin prices rising too fast Goldman’s Kostin says valuations supported by fundamentals Are US stocks forming a bubble? It depends on who you ask. To JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s chief market strategist Marko Kolanovic, the dramatic...
China Calls Out US for ‘Classic Protectionism’ in Tension Over EVs
China became world’s biggest vehicle exporter in 2023 US could impose limits on China EVs, Bloomberg has reported China charged the US with engaging in protectionist trade measures amid signs that Washington is prepared to step up efforts to keep Chinese electric...
Morgan Stanley Offers Pre-IPO Share Trading to Wealth Clients
Unit to offer private shares to accredited investors Valuations of private firms like OpenAI, SpaceX have jumped Morgan Stanley’s wealth management arm is giving its clients a chance to buy and sell coveted shares of private companies before they are available to the...
Country Garden’s Sales Drop Most in Years Amid Wind-Up Fears
Chinese developer saw transactions plunge 85% from a year ago Chairman pledges to deliver projects with its own resources Country Garden Holdings Co. posted its biggest sales decline in at least seven years, adding to the woes of the Chinese property developer that is...
Global Supply Chains and U.S. Import Price Inflation
Inflation around the world increased dramatically with the reopening of economies following COVID-19. After reaching a peak of 11 percent in the second quarter of 2021, world trade prices dropped by more than five percentage points by the middle of 2023. U.S. import...
World-Beating Mining Stock Turns Big Loser Thanks to China Slump
Fortescue tipped for biggest earnings decline among peers Shares have faltered recently after months-long climb Iron ore behemoth Fortescue Ltd.’s months-long stock rally suffered a big pullback in February as investors turned sour on the company’s earnings growth and...
Beijing Is Expected to Unveil GDP Target Around 5% — A Goal Now Harder to Achieve
Premier Li Qiang will deliver government work report at NPC Investors will scrutinize policy priorities as economy falters China is set to announce its 2024 growth target and outline its strategy for supporting the slowing economy at the nation’s most high-profile...
The Dark Side of Generative AI: Why We Must Ban Them Now!
Ban generative AI? Wait, what? Nonsense! Except that Paizo, publisher of popular tabletop role-playing games (TTRPG) like Pathfinder and Starfinder, said it is banning AI-created work and would update its contracts in the coming days to mandate that any work submitted...
Sorry, Fed, Most US Mortgage Rates Were Locked In During Pandemic Lows
More than 40% of all US mortgages were originated in 2020 or 2021, when the pandemic drove borrowing costs to historic lows and triggered a refinancing boom, according to data from Black Knight. That’s good news for all the homeowners who locked in cheap loans — but...
Google’s AI blunder shows risks in scramble to catch up to Microsoft
The market buzz around generative AI comes with heightened scrutiny, as Google (GOOG, GOOGL) was painfully reminded for the second time. The search giant said this week that it plans to relaunch its Gemini AI image generator after some users on social media showed how...
Charting the Global Economy: US, Europe Inflation Stays Elevated
Inflation remains elevated in the US and euro-zone, supporting assertions from central bankers in both regions that it’s too soon to start cutting interest rates. The Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation rose in January by the most in a year,...
Dumb Money Almost Back To Even, Making The Same Mistakes
After over two years, retail investors, also known as the “dumb money,” are almost back to breakeven. A recent chart by Vanda Research shows that the average retail “dumb money” investor portfolio still sports a drawdown despite the markets making new all-time highs....
When Readers Speak
Today, we have a different kind of letter. I’ve been in California for some rather innovative and hopefully life/health span-extending medical treatment. I’m fine, but it has been a bit tiring. So this week, I’m handing the keyboard to you, my intrepid and smart...
US Consumer Sentiment Posts Surprise Drop From Initial Reading
University of Michigan preliminary and final readings diverged Consumers still think inflation is cooling, survey says US consumer sentiment faltered in late February as current views of the economy and the outlook deteriorated, marking a reversal from earlier in the...
US Manufacturing Gauge Drops as Industry Struggles for Momentum
ISM factory index declined 1.3 points in February to 47.8 New orders, production and employment measures decreased A measure of US factory activity shrank at a faster pace in February as orders, production and employment contracted, suggesting manufacturing is...
Alphabet Faces ‘Clear and Present Danger’ of Falling Short in AI
Errors with AI responses have contributed to stock weakness The problems have overshadowed its growth and lower valuation The only thing that matters to Alphabet Inc. investors is whether it can get artificial intelligence right. That was the message delivered this...
GQG’s $19 Billion Fund Says Chinese Stock Rally Is ‘Confusing’
Need some comfort on sustainability of earnings growth: Murthy GQG’s emerging markets fund had a 5.7% weighting in China The rebound in Chinese stocks is puzzling given the lack of support from earnings growth, according to an emerging markets fund manager at GQG...
Pimco Sees Swelling Deficit Dragging Bonds ‘Back to the Future’
Fiscal concerns, stickier inflation poised to end premia era Higher term premium seen steepening US Treasury curve Pacific Investment Management Co. is warning that US fiscal profligacy threatens to drag the Treasury market back to 1980s, a time when bond vigilantes...
U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) determines the economic health of the manufacturing sector in Chicago region. A reading above 50 indicates expansion of the manufacturing sector; a reading below indicates contraction. The Chicago PMI can be of some help in...
US Labor Department Confuses Analysts With Email on CPI Factor
‘Super users’ received note before BLS tried to retract Jump in rent gauge spurred higher-than-expected inflation The US Labor Department’s statistical agency emailed a group of analysts about a key factor behind the jump in January’s consumer price index before...
Apple’s iPhone Steeply Discounted in China on Weak Demand
Latest price cut is deeper than February discounts a year ago Apple’s sales in China in the past quarter missed estimates Apple Inc.’s resellers in China are slashing the price of iPhone 15 models by as much as $180, signaling an unusually prolonged slump in demand....
BOJ Signals Rate Hike That May Roil Markets Is Getting Closer
Seven of 15 economists see a March policy shift as possible BOJ price target ‘coming into sight,’ board member Takata says The Bank of Japan sent one of the strongest signals yet that the end is near for its negative interest rate policy — an event for which the...
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Statements made by Michael Markowski and Profitfromthecrash.com pertaining to returns made from investing in Airbnb, UBER and Snapchat are not indicative of a TRACK RECORD. They are examples for educational purposes only.