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The Disinflationary Impact Of Fed Policy On Equities

The disinflationary impact of Fed policy on equities is coming. There is currently much debate in the mainstream media suggesting investors should ignore Fed rate hikes. To wit: History suggests U.S. stocks are poised to experience more volatility following the rise...

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Inflation Peaks. Will Markets Finally Stabilize?

Market Review & Update On Wednesday, Emily McCormick from Yahoo wrote a great piece encapsulating current market conditions: “As volatility grips markets, investors are naturally wondering when the selling will abate and the bottom will be put in. ‌According to a...

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A Little Harder

The Strategic Investment Conference wrapped up this week with another wave of strong, fascinating speakers and panels. I gave you some highlights in last week’s Soft Now, Hard Later letter. Today I have more to share and, as you’ll see, the plot thickened...

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Investor Sentiment Is So Bearish – It’s Bullish

Investor sentiment has become so bearish that it’s bullish. One of the hardest things to do is go “against” the prevailing bias regarding investing. Such is known as contrarian investing. One of the most famous contrarian investors is Howard Marks, who once stated:...

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Stock Market Rollercoaster Nauseates Investors

Stock Market Rollercoaster I can almost repeat last week’s opening note: “Another tough week, and month, for the market. Ongoing concerns about inflation, earnings, and economic growth, continue to pressure stocks. As noted last week, there is a tremendous amount...

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Soft Now, Hard Later

The Strategic Investment Conference is in full swing. This is our 18th consecutive year and the third in an all-online virtual format. In 2020 we had to make that transition quickly, yet somehow the team pulled it off. Now we are getting the hang of it—though I do...

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Recession Warning? GDP Goes Negative In Q1

Market Review & Update Another tough week, and month, for the market. Ongoing concerns about inflation, earnings, and economic growth, continue to pressure stocks. As noted last week, there is a tremendous amount of damage in the market below the surface of the...

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The Fed Is NGMI

We found out this week that the first quarter was recessionary: GDP down 1.4% when the expectation was that the quarter would be up 1%. Rather large miss! Even so, the quarter-over-quarter comparisons were difficult so I believe the Fed will look past it and a...

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Bull Market In Bonds Set To Return With A Vengeance

A bull market in bonds is set to return with a vengeance as the Fed once again makes a policy mistake. I recently discussed the surge in bond yields noting that such events have previously led to more unwelcome market and economic outcomes. “As shown below, the surge...

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Into the Fire

If you haven’t noticed—perhaps because you live on Mars—inflation is here. Not just in the US but almost everywhere. Prices for everyday goods and services, including necessities like food, are climbing rapidly. The US Consumer Price Index rose 8.5% in the 12 months...

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Did We Go Through A Major Bear Market?

Market Review & Update The market started the week out okay but finished sour as Jerome Powell ramped up his hawkish rhetoric of a .50% rate hike at the May FOMC meeting. That meeting will also contain details on the timing of the reduction in the Fed’s balance...

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Is A Bear Market Lurking?

Is there a bear market lurking in the shadows? Such seems to be the question everyone is asking me as of late. Over the last couple of weeks, we have reviewed the bullish and bearish cases for the market. Sentiment Is So Bearish. It’s Bullish Bullish Or Bearish? Where...

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Market Oversold As “Sell In May” Approaches

Market Review & Update Given this is Easter Weekend, we are just providing a short-market update on our market thoughts as we begin the wrap-up of the seasonally strong period of the year. On Thursday, markets sold off, reversing the previous day’s gains as April...

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More on the Yield Curve and Helping Ukraine

It’s Easter weekend, so we are going to revisit a 2018 letter about the yield curve. The yield curve is much misunderstood and misused by many analysts. This letter will give you the tools to understand the correct importance and relevance of the yield curve. And...

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Still A Bear Market Rally? Or, Is The Bull Back?

Is it still a “bear market rally?” After a big surge from the lows following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley thinks so. To wit: “The first quarter was one of the worst on record for the collective performance of stocks and bonds, with...

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Sentiment Is So Bearish, It’s Getting Bullish

Market Review & Update We provide a daily trading update in our Daily Market Commentary (free pre-market email). During the past week, the message was consistent. “The continued sloppy action over the last week is doing its job of working off the overbought...

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Other Possibilities

An old Danish proverb, later attributed to everyone from Mark Twain to Nostradamus to Yogi Berra, says, “Predictions are difficult, especially about the future.” I would refine it a little: Predictions are actually pretty easy. Accurate predictions are very difficult....

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Bullish Or Bearish: Where Are We Now?

Bullish or bearish? What is the case for the market now? As we noted previously, having a proper market perspective is essential in avoiding investing mistakes over time. However, another trap we potentially fall into is “confirmation bias,” “Experts in the field...

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“Window Dressing” Keeps The Bulls Alive

Market Review & Update We noted last weekthat while the market was short-term overbought, the market could rally further. To wit: “As we head into the end of the month, a further push to the upside is not out of the question as mutual funds, pensions, and...

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Curve Ball

“I would not interpret the currently very flat yield curve as indicating a significant economic slowdown to come.” (and subprime is contained.) —Ben Bernanke, March 2006 Evidence continues to mount that a recession is coming soon. The latest was this week’s “inverted...

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Bear Squeeze? Or, Return Of The Bull?

“Bear squeeze,” or has the bull market returned? Over the last few weeks, that remains the question as the market rocketed off its lows, eclipsing both the 50- and 200-day moving averages. But is it safe to chase the markets higher? As we discussed recently, the best...

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Inverted Yield Curve History Should Worry Bulls

Stocks Rally As Fed Hikes Rates Last week, we discussed the difference a week can make. “We previously stated that any rally above the downtrend would test the 50- and 200-dma averages. That test occurred on Friday, with the index clearing the 50- and...

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Things Are Getting Better

In these letters, I look at the economy and tell you what I think, for better or worse. Recent missives were mostly negative. I regret being the bearer of bad news but sometimes that’s just reality. I often say that I am the most optimistic man in the room, and it’s...

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UPPR; Biggest Loser to Biggest Winner?

The very first stock which was recommended on ShinyPennyStocks.com was Upper Street Marketing (UPPR) in March of 2019 at a price limit of $0.50.  Due to the share price increasing rapidly the limit was raised to $0.85 and then to $1.00.  Then the bottom fell out after...

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“BTFD” or “STFR” – Which Is It?

“BTFD” (Buy The F***ing Dip) or “STFR” (Sell The F***ing Rally) – which should investors do now? With the Fed now hiking rates, seemingly intent on doing so at every meeting in 2022, has the correction priced in the “bad news?” The issue, of course, is that we never...

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Rate Hike Starts Countdown To Next Recession

Stocks Rally As Fed Hikes Rates What a difference a week can make. As discussed last week, the market slid and broke support as the Russia/Ukraine conflict continued. However, this week was very different as the FOMC meeting went off largely as expected. The...

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Brace for (Recession) Impact

The Strange Recession we are now entering is strange for another reason beside those I described last week. The last “normal” recession ended in 2009, almost 13 years ago. As with most unpleasant experiences, we don’t put a lot of energy into remembering what it was...

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Market Perspective Is Important To Avoid Mistakes

Market perspective is essential in avoiding investing mistakes. With CNBC airing “Markets In Turmoil” every time the market dips, it’s no wonder investor sentiment is now the lowest we have seen financial crisis lows. Of course, as shown, extremely negative investor...

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Bear Market Phases Are Like “The Revenant”

Market Review – Stocks Break Support As has been the case all year, market volatility remained constant this past week. Stocks surged early in the week on hopes of talks between Russia and Ukraine, but hopes faded into Friday. Notably, the S&P 500...

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Another Strange Recession

Back in the good old days, recessions were simply the unpleasant part of the business cycle. Consumer choices, exuberant businesses, and monetary policy would periodically generate growth contractions. We debated the timing, but recessions didn’t come out of the blue....

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An Earnings Reversion Is Coming

An earnings reversion is coming. In “earnings estimates will disappoint,” we showed the extreme bullishness of estimates entering 2022. “Despite economic growth weakening as inflation increases, liquidity reducing, and profit margins under pressure, analysts continue...

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Commodity Surge Is A Bearish Indicator

Market Review – Stocks Struggle As Russia Advances Friday morning, stocks sank back to previous support on news Russia had taken Ukraine’s nuclear power facility. It is not surprising with the ongoing Russia conflict; no one wants to hold equities over the weekend if...

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Change Squared

“How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” - Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises Change usually comes slowly. But every now and then, events like Pearl Harbor, September 11th, and COVID-19 come out of nowhere and change everything. We can look at...

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Sell Energy Stocks? The Time May Be Approaching

“Sell Energy Stocks” Was Originally Published At Marketwatch.com Sell energy stocks? Such certainly seems counter-intuitive advice given high oil prices, geopolitical stress, and surging inflation. However, some issues suggest this could indeed be the time to “sell...

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Russia Invasion Sends Stocks Rallying?

Russia Invasion Sends Stocks Rallying? Thursday morning stocks plunged pre-open on news of the Russia invasion of Ukraine. However, as we wrote in our PRE-MARKET commentary (subscribe for email delivery): “However, as I noted on Twitter recently that the...

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The Three-Act Recovery, Plus Your Questions

This week’s news is seemingly all about Ukraine and Russia. It is a terrible situation. But as an economic matter, we still have serious economic challenges no matter how it develops. I’ll have some thoughts on the Ukraine effects at the end of this letter. First I...

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The Fed Put? What And Where Is It,

The “Fed put?” Exactly, what is it, and where does this mythical support reside? It isn’t surprising with the rough start to 2022, investors are hoping the Fed will look to stabilize financial markets. Of course, after more than a decade of monetary interventions,...

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Buy Bonds? Yes, And Why You Should Too

From Russia With Love “When is the selling going to stop?” That was the most common question I received this past week. However, it is an interesting one given that people never ask, “when is the BUYING going to stop?” The importance of the question drives to the...

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Inflation Thoughts

But mouse-friend, you are not alone In proving foresight may be vain: The best-laid schemes of Mice and Men Go oft awry, And leave us only grief and pain, For promised joy! How much inflation is okay? People have different answers. I think it should be very low, but...

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Market Pullback Or Bear Market?

Market pullback or bear market? Such seems to be the question on everyone’s mind as of late, given the rough start to 2022 so far. There are undoubtedly many issues confronting even the most optimistic of investors currently. Geopolitical risk from Russia and the...

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Peak Inflation? Is The Fed Is Behind The Curve?

Market Review & Update Another nauseating week in the market as a hotter than expected inflation print and rumors of a Russian invasion of Ukraine sent stocks tumbling backward. The bad news is that support at the 200-dma failed. That break aligned with our...

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Financialized Everything

Interest rates—the “price of money”—have been unusually low for most of this century, particularly since the 2008 crisis but going back to Greenspan’s era. The wisest people I know differ on exactly why. Was it purely a policy choice, or the result of larger,...

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A 50-Percent Decline Will Only Be A Correction

A 50-percent decline will only be a correction and not a bear market. I know. Right now, you are thinking, how could anyone suggest a 50-percent decline in the market is NOT a bear market. Logically you are correct. However, technically, we need an essential...

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“One And Done?” Is The Fed Trapped At Zero

Market Review & Update Between Paypal, Facebook, and Netflix, the volatility swings in the market over the last couple of weeks were nothing short of nauseating. As we discussed last week: “The markets do look to be stabilizing, as shown below, and are holding the...

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Time to Rethink the Fed

“In many important ways, the financial crash of 2008 had never ended. It was a long crash that crippled the economy for years. The problems that caused it went almost entirely unsolved. And this financial crash was compounded by a long crash in the strength of...

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Market Bottom? Is It In, Or More Downside Coming?

Market bottom? Is it in? That was the main question I got last week, and I even discussed it with Charles Payne of Fox Business. It’s the one answer everybody is searching for. Is it time to “load up the truck” for the next leg of the bull market or go to cash? It...

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So Goes the Year?

You’ve heard the old stock market adage, “As goes January, so goes the year.” If so, 2022 will be a wild ride. Of course, in this context “wild” doesn’t necessarily mean a loss. But it could, and given the well-documented human tendency to buy high and sell low,...

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NASDAQ Could Fall Another 13%

This article was written exclusively for Investing.com The NASDAQ Composite has fallen sharply to start 2022, down nearly 13%. But don't expect the index to race back to record highs anytime soon. The index faces a battle on two fronts, higher rates, and falling...

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Grantham: We’re In An Epic Bubble

Jeremy Grantham recently made headlines with his latest market outlook titled “Let The Wild Rumpus Begin.” The crux of the article gets summed up in the following paragraph. “All 2-sigma equity bubbles in developed countries have broken back to trend. But before they...

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You’re probably using P/E ratios incorrectly

The most popular way to measure value in the stock market is to take the price and divide it by earnings. This is the price/earnings (P/E) ratio. When the P/E ratio is above average, stocks are arguably expensive. When it’s below average, stocks are arguably cheap....

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Retail Investors Panic As Market Plunges

In this 01-21-22 issue of “Retail Investors Panic As Market Plunges.” Retail Investors Panic The “Value Trade” Isn’t Really A Value Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis Retail Investors Panic As Market Plunges Last week, we noted: Notably, despite the...

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Beijing’s Dilemmas

Ranked by population, the United States is the world’s third largest country, behind China and India. But the gap is greater than the ranking implies. According to Worldometer, as of 2020 China had 1.44 billion people, India 1.38 billion, and the US 331 million. In...

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Market Selloff Into January

The market selloff into January rattled investors as concerns of “So Goes January, So Goes The Year” began to dampen expectations. Combined with a more aggressive stance from the Federal Reserve, rising inflation, and a reduction in liquidity, investor concerns seem...

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Inflation Surge Pushes Fed To Hike Rates Faster

In this 01-14-22 issue of “Inflation Surge Pushes Fed To Hike Rates Faster.” Market Struggles With Inflation Surge The Fed Is Getting Aggressive Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis Market Struggles With Inflation Surge Last week, we started our...

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Year of the Bookends

If you are a booklover like me, you probably have many shelves. On some of those shelves you probably have bookends holding the books in place. They come in opposing pairs—similar but reversed. What if the COVID-era economy has bookends? I think that may be what’s...

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“Passive ETFs” Are Hiding The Bear Market

Passive ETFs are hiding a bear market in stocks. That may sound like a strange statement when you look at major stock market indexes hovering near all-time highs. However, much like an iceberg, what we see on the surface hides much of what lies beneath. Such was a...

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Fed Minutes Spook Markets Into Selloff

Market Stumbles Into January Last week, we discussed the Santa Rally came as expected, but the market was back overbought levels. To wit: “However, as shown, the market is overbought, pushing into heavy bull-trend resistance, and is nearly 10% above its 200-dma....

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A Path-Dependent Year—WWJD?

Twenty-two years of tradition dictate I begin the new year by forecasting what lies ahead. Unfortunately, the future is never really knowable. “Forecast” is a polite synonym for “guess.” The better ones are informed guesses, but still inherently uncertain. The coming...

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Santa Rally Sets Stage For January Start

Administrative Note I am on vacation this week with my family. However, I did want to provide a short update to wrap up the year. The full newsletter will return next week as we kick on 2022. In the meantime, all of us at RIA Advisors want to wish you a very happy,...

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Coming to America

This week is a little bit different than your usual Thoughts from the Frontline. It is Christmas Day as this is sent out, so not the time to ramble on about inflation and the markets. Instead I’ll share a story from my good friend Vitaliy Katsenelson. He immigrated to...

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The Biggest Risk To Stocks Is Not The Fed

The most significant risk to stocks is not the Fed. Over the next few months, you will see a lot of articles suggesting that initial rate hikes from the Fed don’t impact stocks. Such as this one: “Historical analyses put together by Evercore ISI’s Ed Hyman and The...

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Inflation by the Numbers

Milton Friedman famously said inflation is “always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” He was right but that short statement doesn’t fully explain how inflation works. It has other causes, too. The period in which he did his most famous research showed inflation...

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Panic Selling To Panic Buying In One Week

In this 12-10-21 issue of “Panic Selling To Panic Buying In One Week?” Panic Selling Turns To Panic Buying Market Gets A Breadth Mint Minsky’s View On Stability Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook,...

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What Really Caused Inflation

You won’t be surprised to know I disagree with recent Federal Reserve policy choices. The Fed’s future choices are more important, though. Debating what they should do is one thing. Anticipating what they will do is critical. Today we’ll “war game” what the Fed is...

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Back up the Truck to buy INVU shares

“Back up the truck to buy INVU shares” has been exclusively available to ShinyPennyStocks.com subscribers since November 29, 2021. “Back up the truck” is an old saying that is used by professionals on Wall Street on rare occasions.  Another is “buy it with both...

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Market Predictions For 2022 – Two Opposing Views

“(Market) Predictions Are Difficult…Especially When They Are About The Future” – Niels Bohr Okay, I took a little poetic license. However, the point is that while we try, we can’t predict the future. If we could, fortune tellers would win all of the lotteries. But,...

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Omicron Selloff, Is It Over Yet?

In this 12-03-21 issue of “Is the Omicron Selloff Over Yet?” What’s Driving The Omicron Market Sell-Off Did The Omicron Selloff Set Up The Santa Rally? Internal Measures Suggest Risk Remains Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow...

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Capital Excess

Why do we invest? Everyone has their reasons, but funding retirement may be the most common one. Whenever the time comes, we want to relax in comfort and security. Yet this whole “retirement” idea is really quite new. For most of human history, almost everyone worked...

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Market Correction Before The Santa Rally Has Started

Last week, we asked if there would be a market correction before “Santa visits Broad and Wall?” “Investors’ ‘wish lists’ are hung by the chimney with care, hopeful the ‘Santa Claus rally’ will soon be there. While they remain ‘snug in their beds, the historical data...

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Blowout quarter for Investview

Investview (INVU) reported their financial results for their quarter ended September 30, 2021.  The blowout results were, as I had anticipated.  Operating and free cash flow results came in as expected.  For more highlights covering financial results see Investview...

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Worth a Thousand Words

Happy Thanksgiving! I hope everyone had a good holiday. I’m writing this issue early in the week while enroute to join family in Dallas. Today will be different and I hope you like it. The charts and comments below are drawn from the “Clips That Matter” feature of...

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Shortages Are Relative

In some simplistic economic theories, shortages never happen. Supply and demand for any particular good are always perfectly balanced in a given time and place. If you can’t get what you demand at that moment, you pay a higher price or you demand something else. But...

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Trade “The Off-The-Charts Bull Market”

“How do you trade this off-the-charts bull market?” That was an email question I got last week that deserves a deeper explanation. However, let me start with an excellent note from Global Macro Monitor, ironically entitled “The Off-The-Charts Bull Market.” “Bezos,...

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Inflation In Irrational Exuberance 11-12-21

In this 11-12-21 issue of “Inflation In Irrational Exuberance.” Market Stalls Ahead Of Options Expiration Sentiment Is Showing Irrational Exuberance Inflation Is Surging Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter,...

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Investview, Ridiculously Undervalued!

From my analysis of Investview’s Financial Statements, I discovered five reasons why the company’s shares are ridiculously undervalued at any price below $0.10.  The shares closed at $0.07 on Thursday, November 11, 2021. If Investview shares were listed on the NASDAQ...

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Investview shares, Screaming “BUY”

Investview shares are a Screaming “BUY” The shares of Investview (OTCBB:INVU), one of the US’s three largest publicly traded bitcoin miners are a screaming buy.  The shares have declined by as much as 46% from yesterday’s closing price of $0.0963.  ...

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Energy Complexity

If I had to describe my last 500 letters in one word, it would be “complexity.” The older I get, the more I realize problems I once thought had reasonably straightforward solutions are, in fact, hideously complicated. That doesn’t make them unsolvable but it reduces...

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Trick or Treat Economy

To Jerome Powell and the Fed: It’s a lesson too late for the learning,Made of sand, made of sand.In the wink of an eye, prices are risingIn your hand, by your hand. Are you going away with no word of farewell,Will you leave your inflation behind?You should have...

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When Tools Stop Working

Because I believe in the division of labor, I rarely use hand tools today. In the ‘80s and ‘90s, I had two 4 x 8 pegboards on my garage wall full of tools along with my large Craftsman toolbox. I had the right tool for every job around the car, house, and yard. I...

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Logistical Sandpiles

At the risk of overusing a favorite metaphor, today we’ll talk about sandpiles. My past sandpile stories focused on financial crises. The same principle holds in any complex system, though. Everything works until suddenly it doesn’t. As Minsky said, stability breeds...

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China’s Gilded Age Is Over

Historical comparisons are always risky. This is particularly so when comparing different eras in vastly different countries like the US and China. Similarities can actually obscure more important differences. Nevertheless, familiar knowledge can help build a...

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Xi’s Changing Plan

Six months ago, few Americans had heard of Evergrande. Now many worry this Chinese property developer’s downfall will start an economically devastating chain reaction. They’re right about the chain reaction part, but I don’t think it will “devastate” anyone outside...

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What Could Go Wrong?

I have written several letters on the theme that the best investment posture is cautious optimism. Pessimism and bearishness never get you in the game, while untamed optimism means that at some point, you’ll have a serious setback. The cautiously optimistic investor...

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Inflation: Less Transitory than Expected

If the inflation numbers leave you scratching your head, join the club. The August data was especially perplexing. The Producer Price Index came in hot, up 8.3% in the last year, inviting 1970s comparisons. Obviously, our current situation is different in many ways....

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The Return of Stagflation

I have been writing this letter for 22 years. Sometimes I look into the future and other times merely try to explain the present. Today I’m going to look at several possible futures. There are forces at work in both Congress and the Federal Reserve that could take us...

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Human Capital Losses

Remember math class? Let me give you a quick refresher. In the equation 3 x 5 = 15, the 3 and 5 are factors, and 15 is the product. You can’t have a product without factors. In economics we talk about “factors of production.” If you want to produce something, you need...

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Perfect Storms

Having been Puerto Rico residents for almost three years now, Shane and I have learned a few things about living in the tropics. In Dallas, we didn’t often think about hurricanes, though we did have tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. Ditto for earthquakes. North...

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Buy Businesses, Not Stocks

I write this letter on my way home from Steamboat Springs, Colorado, where I spoke to the fascinating “GoBundance” group of mostly young, successful, enthusiastic entrepreneurs. Before that I was in Grand Lake Stream, Maine, for the Camp Kotok economics/fishing...

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Bulls Charge Ahead On Hopes Fed Stands Pat 08-13-21

In this 08-13-21 issue of “Bulls Charge Ahead On Hopes Fed Stands Pat.”   Market Rally Gains Steam Market Internals Extraordinarily Weak The Fed Gave Investors No Choice Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter,...

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Ubiquity, Complexity, and Sandpiles

“How did you go bankrupt?” “Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” ―Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises Change happens quickly and, often, unpredictably. And as we will see, the unpredictable part is actually a mathematical principle. As in the Hemingway quote above,...

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Technically Speaking: A Test Of The 200-DMA Is Coming

A test of the 200-dma is coming. The only questions are when and what will cause it? Two weeks ago in the Real Investment Report (subscribe for free email delivery), I discussed the rather long span of 6-straight positive return months. “An additional ‘red flag’ is...

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COVID Consumer Headache

If you look just at 2021, it seems the US economy is tearing higher. Real GDP grew an annualized +6.5% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department estimated last week. This follows a similar +6.3% first quarter, and a pandemic-interrupted 2020 that turned out not...

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Policy Errors Have Consequences

“T.S. Eliot once wrote, ‘Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go.’ It seems the US financial system is bound and determined to find out.” —John Hussman, July 29, 2021 “If I was Darth Vader and I wanted to destroy the US economy, I...

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Secular Bear Birth, Bull Death May 7, 2021

Many investors are excited due to the S&P 500 attaining a new all-time high on July 26, 2021.  However, based on the following the probability is high that a new Secular Bear, the first since 2000-2009 and 10th since 1802 was born on May 7, 2021.  The bear’s birth...

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Federal Reserve Folly

Great news: The US economy is officially out of recession. We know this because the National Bureau of Economic Research’s official recession-calling committee said so this week. The economy has been in an expansion phase since last April, making this the shortest...

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Technically Speaking: Hedge Funds Ramp Up Exposure

The “Fear Of Missing Out” has infected retail and hedge funds alike as they ramp up exposure to chase performance. We have previously discussed the near “mania” of retail investors taking on exceptional risk in various manners. From increasing leverage, engaging in...

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Xi’s Big Mistake

I have mixed feelings about China. On the plus side, I think the country’s massive economic transformation may be one of the most impressive events in human history. Bringing hundreds of millions from primitive rural lives into relatively prosperous cities within a...

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TINA Is Stupid

In the 1980s, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher liked to say, “There is no alternative” to her market-driven economic reform ideas. She said it so much people began abbreviating it as “TINA.” Whatever you think of Lady Thatcher’s policies, the slogan was...

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The New Inquisition

It is as essential to democracy that the minority should voluntarily submit to the measures adopted as it is that the majority should voluntarily approve them. Democratic government rests upon the principle that it is better to count heads than it is to break them....

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Technically Speaking: Warnings From Behind The Curtain

“Warnings From Behind The Curtain” almost sounds like the title of a good “Cold War” fiction novel. However, this time, the story is of warnings for investors not often discussed by the mainstream media. Notably, there is a necessary clarification that must get made....

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Long Humanity

“At the end of the day” is a trite figure of speech, but it sometimes fits. It signals you’ve used all your time, and now you’ll wrap up and begin thinking about tomorrow. I like to say designing the Strategic Investment Conference agenda is my personal art form....

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Strategic Investment Potpourri

If it seems I have been talking about the Strategic Investment Conference for weeks… well, you’re right. It really was that much to unpack, and I’ve still only scratched the surface. I will wrap up next week. First, however, I want to make sure you get a few other...

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Politics with No Labels

You can’t always get what you wantBut if you try sometime you findYou get what you need There’s no way around it: Investing in public companies is always political. Corporations exist because governments charter these artificial entities and legally shield the owners...

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Technology Rules

Macroeconomic forecasting is too politicized. I don’t mean that in a partisan sense, though it may be so. The bigger problem is that forecasters spend most of their time thinking about central bank decisions and government policies. In the long run, those aren’t the...

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Deflation Talk

If you could ask the world’s top central bankers what really terrifies them, I think the honest answer would usually be “deflation.” It is their greatest nightmare. They think a little inflation is good (thus the 2%+ target), and they’re confident they can subdue it...

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Expecting Inflation

The annual whirlwind is over. SIC was once again a mental overload. This year our virtual schedule spread it over almost two weeks, which was actually nice. The in-between days let the ideas settle a bit before the firehose opened again. Fifty powerful, thoughtful...

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A Giant Consumptive Force

The SIC was in full swing this week. I am finishing this on Friday morning, a few hours before the start of the last official day and then a “Plus Day” on Tuesday. My mind is swimming with new connections and revelations. While the live events are mostly over now,...

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This Kind of Duality

We’re midway through the SIC 2021, and as I expected, it’s shaping up to be the biggest and best Strategic Investment Conference I’ve ever hosted. So far, all of our presenters and panelists have given stellar performances... and attendees seem to agree with that...

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Anomaly of a Recovery

We did the first Strategic Investment Conference 18 years ago. I remember one of the partners in the firm that cohosted the event telling me as I walked up to the stage, “John, it doesn’t get any better than this. Don’t screw it up.” He was wrong. Every year the...

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Stumbling to Scarcity

In economic forecasting, reality is usually somewhere between the extremes. The best-case and worst-case rarely happen. That’s why, when they do happen, markets react so quickly to the “missed expectations.” I saw this early in my career. Realizing we will “muddle...

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Tsunami Warning

A tsunami is a wall of water that wipes out everything in its path, typically caused by earthquakes. But first, the water actually disappears from the usual shoreline, leaving land where there should be sea. A tsunami is a wall of water that wipes out everything in...

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Statements made by Michael Markowski and Profitfromthecrash.com  pertaining to returns made from investing in Airbnb, UBER and Snapchat are not indicative of a TRACK RECORD. They are examples for educational purposes only.