The Disinflationary Impact Of Fed Policy On Equities
The disinflationary impact of Fed policy on equities is coming. There is currently much debate in the mainstream media suggesting investors should ignore Fed rate hikes. To wit: History suggests U.S. stocks are poised to experience more volatility following the rise...
Inflation Peaks. Will Markets Finally Stabilize?
Market Review & Update On Wednesday, Emily McCormick from Yahoo wrote a great piece encapsulating current market conditions: “As volatility grips markets, investors are naturally wondering when the selling will abate and the bottom will be put in. According to a...
A Little Harder
The Strategic Investment Conference wrapped up this week with another wave of strong, fascinating speakers and panels. I gave you some highlights in last week’s Soft Now, Hard Later letter. Today I have more to share and, as you’ll see, the plot thickened...
Investor Sentiment Is So Bearish – It’s Bullish
Investor sentiment has become so bearish that it’s bullish. One of the hardest things to do is go “against” the prevailing bias regarding investing. Such is known as contrarian investing. One of the most famous contrarian investors is Howard Marks, who once stated:...
Stock Market Rollercoaster Nauseates Investors
Stock Market Rollercoaster I can almost repeat last week’s opening note: “Another tough week, and month, for the market. Ongoing concerns about inflation, earnings, and economic growth, continue to pressure stocks. As noted last week, there is a tremendous amount...
Soft Now, Hard Later
The Strategic Investment Conference is in full swing. This is our 18th consecutive year and the third in an all-online virtual format. In 2020 we had to make that transition quickly, yet somehow the team pulled it off. Now we are getting the hang of it—though I do...
“Don’t Be Bearish.” The Inevitable End Of Bad Advice.
Originally Published At Epoch Times “Don’t be bearish.” That was the message delivered by a Wall Street Journal article in August 2021, discussing the “new generation” of “financial media stars.” To wit: “As the U.S. retreated amid the pandemic to its couches,...
Recession Warning? GDP Goes Negative In Q1
Market Review & Update Another tough week, and month, for the market. Ongoing concerns about inflation, earnings, and economic growth, continue to pressure stocks. As noted last week, there is a tremendous amount of damage in the market below the surface of the...
The Fed Is NGMI
We found out this week that the first quarter was recessionary: GDP down 1.4% when the expectation was that the quarter would be up 1%. Rather large miss! Even so, the quarter-over-quarter comparisons were difficult so I believe the Fed will look past it and a...
Bull Market In Bonds Set To Return With A Vengeance
A bull market in bonds is set to return with a vengeance as the Fed once again makes a policy mistake. I recently discussed the surge in bond yields noting that such events have previously led to more unwelcome market and economic outcomes. “As shown below, the surge...
Into the Fire
If you haven’t noticed—perhaps because you live on Mars—inflation is here. Not just in the US but almost everywhere. Prices for everyday goods and services, including necessities like food, are climbing rapidly. The US Consumer Price Index rose 8.5% in the 12 months...
Did We Go Through A Major Bear Market?
Market Review & Update The market started the week out okay but finished sour as Jerome Powell ramped up his hawkish rhetoric of a .50% rate hike at the May FOMC meeting. That meeting will also contain details on the timing of the reduction in the Fed’s balance...
Is A Bear Market Lurking?
Is there a bear market lurking in the shadows? Such seems to be the question everyone is asking me as of late. Over the last couple of weeks, we have reviewed the bullish and bearish cases for the market. Sentiment Is So Bearish. It’s Bullish Bullish Or Bearish? Where...
Market Oversold As “Sell In May” Approaches
Market Review & Update Given this is Easter Weekend, we are just providing a short-market update on our market thoughts as we begin the wrap-up of the seasonally strong period of the year. On Thursday, markets sold off, reversing the previous day’s gains as April...
More on the Yield Curve and Helping Ukraine
It’s Easter weekend, so we are going to revisit a 2018 letter about the yield curve. The yield curve is much misunderstood and misused by many analysts. This letter will give you the tools to understand the correct importance and relevance of the yield curve. And...
Still A Bear Market Rally? Or, Is The Bull Back?
Is it still a “bear market rally?” After a big surge from the lows following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley thinks so. To wit: “The first quarter was one of the worst on record for the collective performance of stocks and bonds, with...
Sentiment Is So Bearish, It’s Getting Bullish
Market Review & Update We provide a daily trading update in our Daily Market Commentary (free pre-market email). During the past week, the message was consistent. “The continued sloppy action over the last week is doing its job of working off the overbought...
Other Possibilities
An old Danish proverb, later attributed to everyone from Mark Twain to Nostradamus to Yogi Berra, says, “Predictions are difficult, especially about the future.” I would refine it a little: Predictions are actually pretty easy. Accurate predictions are very difficult....
Bullish Or Bearish: Where Are We Now?
Bullish or bearish? What is the case for the market now? As we noted previously, having a proper market perspective is essential in avoiding investing mistakes over time. However, another trap we potentially fall into is “confirmation bias,” “Experts in the field...
“Window Dressing” Keeps The Bulls Alive
Market Review & Update We noted last weekthat while the market was short-term overbought, the market could rally further. To wit: “As we head into the end of the month, a further push to the upside is not out of the question as mutual funds, pensions, and...
Curve Ball
“I would not interpret the currently very flat yield curve as indicating a significant economic slowdown to come.” (and subprime is contained.) —Ben Bernanke, March 2006 Evidence continues to mount that a recession is coming soon. The latest was this week’s “inverted...
Kerosene Poured on Investview’s Already Raging Growth Fire
Investview’s SEC filing on (3/31/22) was extremely significant. Its shares (symbol:INVU) should be aggressively purchased at or under ShinyPennyStocks.com’s $0.10 buy limit price. The shares could soon pierce through the $0.10 barrier based on what was revealed in...
Bear Squeeze? Or, Return Of The Bull?
“Bear squeeze,” or has the bull market returned? Over the last few weeks, that remains the question as the market rocketed off its lows, eclipsing both the 50- and 200-day moving averages. But is it safe to chase the markets higher? As we discussed recently, the best...
Inverted Yield Curve History Should Worry Bulls
Stocks Rally As Fed Hikes Rates Last week, we discussed the difference a week can make. “We previously stated that any rally above the downtrend would test the 50- and 200-dma averages. That test occurred on Friday, with the index clearing the 50- and...
Things Are Getting Better
In these letters, I look at the economy and tell you what I think, for better or worse. Recent missives were mostly negative. I regret being the bearer of bad news but sometimes that’s just reality. I often say that I am the most optimistic man in the room, and it’s...
UPPR; Biggest Loser to Biggest Winner?
The very first stock which was recommended on ShinyPennyStocks.com was Upper Street Marketing (UPPR) in March of 2019 at a price limit of $0.50. Due to the share price increasing rapidly the limit was raised to $0.85 and then to $1.00. Then the bottom fell out after...
Report in Support of $4.03 INVU share price, to soon be available
Visionary analyst and algorithm developer Michael Markowski, is presently in the process to produce an in-depth research update on Investiew (INVU). He says the ShinyPennyStocks.com (SPS) report will be foundational and on par with his November 12, 2021,...
“BTFD” or “STFR” – Which Is It?
“BTFD” (Buy The F***ing Dip) or “STFR” (Sell The F***ing Rally) – which should investors do now? With the Fed now hiking rates, seemingly intent on doing so at every meeting in 2022, has the correction priced in the “bad news?” The issue, of course, is that we never...
Rate Hike Starts Countdown To Next Recession
Stocks Rally As Fed Hikes Rates What a difference a week can make. As discussed last week, the market slid and broke support as the Russia/Ukraine conflict continued. However, this week was very different as the FOMC meeting went off largely as expected. The...
Brace for (Recession) Impact
The Strange Recession we are now entering is strange for another reason beside those I described last week. The last “normal” recession ended in 2009, almost 13 years ago. As with most unpleasant experiences, we don’t put a lot of energy into remembering what it was...
Market Perspective Is Important To Avoid Mistakes
Market perspective is essential in avoiding investing mistakes. With CNBC airing “Markets In Turmoil” every time the market dips, it’s no wonder investor sentiment is now the lowest we have seen financial crisis lows. Of course, as shown, extremely negative investor...
Bear Market Phases Are Like “The Revenant”
Market Review – Stocks Break Support As has been the case all year, market volatility remained constant this past week. Stocks surged early in the week on hopes of talks between Russia and Ukraine, but hopes faded into Friday. Notably, the S&P 500...
Another Strange Recession
Back in the good old days, recessions were simply the unpleasant part of the business cycle. Consumer choices, exuberant businesses, and monetary policy would periodically generate growth contractions. We debated the timing, but recessions didn’t come out of the blue....
Due to inflation’s effect on PE, S&P 500 to decline 45%
The findings from my research of the S&P 500’s PE multiples and consumer price index (CPI) volatility from 1920 to 2022 indicate that the probability is high for the secular bull market which began in 2009 to have ended at the index’s 1/4/2022 all-time high of...
An Earnings Reversion Is Coming
An earnings reversion is coming. In “earnings estimates will disappoint,” we showed the extreme bullishness of estimates entering 2022. “Despite economic growth weakening as inflation increases, liquidity reducing, and profit margins under pressure, analysts continue...
Commodity Surge Is A Bearish Indicator
Market Review – Stocks Struggle As Russia Advances Friday morning, stocks sank back to previous support on news Russia had taken Ukraine’s nuclear power facility. It is not surprising with the ongoing Russia conflict; no one wants to hold equities over the weekend if...
Change Squared
“How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” - Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises Change usually comes slowly. But every now and then, events like Pearl Harbor, September 11th, and COVID-19 come out of nowhere and change everything. We can look at...
BBT gains, S&P 500 loses for first two months of 2022
The Bull & Bear Tracker (BBT) algorithm produced gains for January and February of 2022 versus the S&P 500’s losses. For the first two months of 2022, the BBT gained 6.79% versus the S&P 500’s decline of 8.39%.The table and chart below depict the Bull...
Sell Energy Stocks? The Time May Be Approaching
“Sell Energy Stocks” Was Originally Published At Marketwatch.com Sell energy stocks? Such certainly seems counter-intuitive advice given high oil prices, geopolitical stress, and surging inflation. However, some issues suggest this could indeed be the time to “sell...
Russia Invasion Sends Stocks Rallying?
Russia Invasion Sends Stocks Rallying? Thursday morning stocks plunged pre-open on news of the Russia invasion of Ukraine. However, as we wrote in our PRE-MARKET commentary (subscribe for email delivery): “However, as I noted on Twitter recently that the...
The Three-Act Recovery, Plus Your Questions
This week’s news is seemingly all about Ukraine and Russia. It is a terrible situation. But as an economic matter, we still have serious economic challenges no matter how it develops. I’ll have some thoughts on the Ukraine effects at the end of this letter. First I...
The Fed Put? What And Where Is It,
The “Fed put?” Exactly, what is it, and where does this mythical support reside? It isn’t surprising with the rough start to 2022, investors are hoping the Fed will look to stabilize financial markets. Of course, after more than a decade of monetary interventions,...
What Rising Geopolitical Tensions In Ukraine Could Mean For Cryptocurrencies
This article was written exclusively for Investing.com Ukraine: Current hub of geopolitical turmoil Flight capital has a long history New set of capital tools for those in flight China eyeing events in Ukraine as it has designs on Taiwan Cryptos: 3 critical...
Buy Bonds? Yes, And Why You Should Too
From Russia With Love “When is the selling going to stop?” That was the most common question I received this past week. However, it is an interesting one given that people never ask, “when is the BUYING going to stop?” The importance of the question drives to the...
Inflation Thoughts
But mouse-friend, you are not alone In proving foresight may be vain: The best-laid schemes of Mice and Men Go oft awry, And leave us only grief and pain, For promised joy! How much inflation is okay? People have different answers. I think it should be very low, but...
Shocker From Fed Repo Oracle Zoltan Pozsar: Powell Must Crash The Market
Back on November 7, just one day before the Russell, cryptos and most risk assets peaked for the year and perhaps this cycle, we asked a simple question yet one which the "expert punditry" immediately dismissed as it was - what else - just more...
Market Pullback Or Bear Market?
Market pullback or bear market? Such seems to be the question on everyone’s mind as of late, given the rough start to 2022 so far. There are undoubtedly many issues confronting even the most optimistic of investors currently. Geopolitical risk from Russia and the...
Peak Inflation? Is The Fed Is Behind The Curve?
Market Review & Update Another nauseating week in the market as a hotter than expected inflation print and rumors of a Russian invasion of Ukraine sent stocks tumbling backward. The bad news is that support at the 200-dma failed. That break aligned with our...
Acclaimed Expert says Probability High for US Market Crash & Economic Depression
Since December 2021, market crash expert Michael Markowski has been burning the midnight oil to conduct empirical (1871-2022) research on the following below. Based on the findings and his prior research of secular bull and bear markets from 1802 to 2009, he is...
Financialized Everything
Interest rates—the “price of money”—have been unusually low for most of this century, particularly since the 2008 crisis but going back to Greenspan’s era. The wisest people I know differ on exactly why. Was it purely a policy choice, or the result of larger,...
A 50-Percent Decline Will Only Be A Correction
A 50-percent decline will only be a correction and not a bear market. I know. Right now, you are thinking, how could anyone suggest a 50-percent decline in the market is NOT a bear market. Logically you are correct. However, technically, we need an essential...
Have private markets become too big to hide? The SEC thinks so
A year has passed since Gary Gensler was nominated to his post as SEC chairman. In that relatively short time, the agency has drawn up an agenda for private markets that is quickly gaining steam. Two pieces of news from recent weeks offer an indication of what the...
“One And Done?” Is The Fed Trapped At Zero
Market Review & Update Between Paypal, Facebook, and Netflix, the volatility swings in the market over the last couple of weeks were nothing short of nauseating. As we discussed last week: “The markets do look to be stabilizing, as shown below, and are holding the...
Time to Rethink the Fed
“In many important ways, the financial crash of 2008 had never ended. It was a long crash that crippled the economy for years. The problems that caused it went almost entirely unsolved. And this financial crash was compounded by a long crash in the strength of...
Investors buying the dip ‘better buckle up their seat belts’
“Buy the dip” has been a headline-making phrase lately. Whether from professional strategists, or in the form of a meme on Twitter, the mantra has inspired an entire generation of investors to go bargain hunting for stocks in the face of a market pullback. Moreover,...
PayPal Joins the Growing List of Pandemic Boom-to-Bust Stocks
(Bloomberg) -- PayPal Holdings Inc. shares were set to sink to almost the lowest level since the pandemic’s onset, joining the likes of Peloton Interactive Inc. and Netflix Inc. in a post-earnings selloff. These companies have given back most of their multi-fold gains...
Retail investors bought the dip in January as institutions fled: BofA
U.S. stocks recorded their worst January since the financial crisis and retail investors saw the downturn as an opportunity to buy the dip. Mom- and pop- investors led purchases of U.S. equities during the month, while institutional investors such as hedge funds sold...
Market Bottom? Is It In, Or More Downside Coming?
Market bottom? Is it in? That was the main question I got last week, and I even discussed it with Charles Payne of Fox Business. It’s the one answer everybody is searching for. Is it time to “load up the truck” for the next leg of the bull market or go to cash? It...
Fed Tightening “Sooner & Faster” Sends Stocks Rallying?
Market Review & Update It was a busy week with a lot of market volatility. So let’s start with a recap from last week. “This past week, retail investors began to panic sell as “meme” stocks fell apart. Previous favorites became an anathema from AMC to Gamestop to...
Consumer Sentiment Falls Again in January 2022
Lowest since November 2011 on rising inflation, low confidence in governmentThe University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) ended January 2022 down by 4.8% from its level in December 2021, according to final results released on Jan. 28, 2022. This also...
Here Comes The Fund Rebalancing: $65 Billion In Month-End Buying
It's not just buybacks that emerge seemingly out of nowhere (technically, the tend to emerge out of select VWAP desks) to help lift stocks higher: month end is notorious for pension and mutual fund rebalancing flows, and in a month when stocks tumbled far more than...
U.S. consumer spending falls in December; inflation increases
WASHINGTON, Jan 28 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer spending fell in December, suggesting the economy lost speed heading into the new year amid snarled supply chains and raging COVID-19 infections, while annual inflation increased at a pace last seen in the early 1980s. The...
So Goes the Year?
You’ve heard the old stock market adage, “As goes January, so goes the year.” If so, 2022 will be a wild ride. Of course, in this context “wild” doesn’t necessarily mean a loss. But it could, and given the well-documented human tendency to buy high and sell low,...
NASDAQ Could Fall Another 13%
This article was written exclusively for Investing.com The NASDAQ Composite has fallen sharply to start 2022, down nearly 13%. But don't expect the index to race back to record highs anytime soon. The index faces a battle on two fronts, higher rates, and falling...
Probability of 34% Decline for S&P 500 by end of February 2022, High
The S&P 500’s 10% decline from its January 4, 2022 all-time high on January 24th resulted in the index having a high probability to decline by an additional 24%, a total peak to trough decline of 34% by end of February 2022. Additionally, unlike the quick...
Grantham: We’re In An Epic Bubble
Jeremy Grantham recently made headlines with his latest market outlook titled “Let The Wild Rumpus Begin.” The crux of the article gets summed up in the following paragraph. “All 2-sigma equity bubbles in developed countries have broken back to trend. But before they...
You’re probably using P/E ratios incorrectly
The most popular way to measure value in the stock market is to take the price and divide it by earnings. This is the price/earnings (P/E) ratio. When the P/E ratio is above average, stocks are arguably expensive. When it’s below average, stocks are arguably cheap....
Retail Investors Panic As Market Plunges
In this 01-21-22 issue of “Retail Investors Panic As Market Plunges.” Retail Investors Panic The “Value Trade” Isn’t Really A Value Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis Retail Investors Panic As Market Plunges Last week, we noted: Notably, despite the...
Beijing’s Dilemmas
Ranked by population, the United States is the world’s third largest country, behind China and India. But the gap is greater than the ranking implies. According to Worldometer, as of 2020 China had 1.44 billion people, India 1.38 billion, and the US 331 million. In...
Market Selloff Into January
The market selloff into January rattled investors as concerns of “So Goes January, So Goes The Year” began to dampen expectations. Combined with a more aggressive stance from the Federal Reserve, rising inflation, and a reduction in liquidity, investor concerns seem...
Inflation Surge Pushes Fed To Hike Rates Faster
In this 01-14-22 issue of “Inflation Surge Pushes Fed To Hike Rates Faster.” Market Struggles With Inflation Surge The Fed Is Getting Aggressive Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis Market Struggles With Inflation Surge Last week, we started our...
Year of the Bookends
If you are a booklover like me, you probably have many shelves. On some of those shelves you probably have bookends holding the books in place. They come in opposing pairs—similar but reversed. What if the COVID-era economy has bookends? I think that may be what’s...
Consumer Sentiment Dips in January 2022
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) has recorded a dip of 2.5% in early January 2022 from its level in December 2021, according to preliminary results released on Jan. 14, 2022. The MCSI now stands at its second-lowest level in a decade, the low...
“Passive ETFs” Are Hiding The Bear Market
Passive ETFs are hiding a bear market in stocks. That may sound like a strange statement when you look at major stock market indexes hovering near all-time highs. However, much like an iceberg, what we see on the surface hides much of what lies beneath. Such was a...
Fed Minutes Spook Markets Into Selloff
Market Stumbles Into January Last week, we discussed the Santa Rally came as expected, but the market was back overbought levels. To wit: “However, as shown, the market is overbought, pushing into heavy bull-trend resistance, and is nearly 10% above its 200-dma....
A Path-Dependent Year—WWJD?
Twenty-two years of tradition dictate I begin the new year by forecasting what lies ahead. Unfortunately, the future is never really knowable. “Forecast” is a polite synonym for “guess.” The better ones are informed guesses, but still inherently uncertain. The coming...
December 31st, Best Day of Year to buy INVU shares
December 31st is the best day of the year to buy INVU and all penny shares. This is especially true when a stock market closes the year near its high. The reasons why: Penny stocks are inherently more volatile than blue chip stocks. Thus, the probability is high for...
Santa Rally Sets Stage For January Start
Administrative Note I am on vacation this week with my family. However, I did want to provide a short update to wrap up the year. The full newsletter will return next week as we kick on 2022. In the meantime, all of us at RIA Advisors want to wish you a very happy,...
Absolute Returns Or Relative – There Is A Difference
Absolute returns or relative? There is a very important difference. Most investors say they want the latter, in reality, they want the former. The problem is they are unaware of the risk they are accepting. I have had many discussions with clients, prospects, and...
Coming to America
This week is a little bit different than your usual Thoughts from the Frontline. It is Christmas Day as this is sent out, so not the time to ramble on about inflation and the markets. Instead I’ll share a story from my good friend Vitaliy Katsenelson. He immigrated to...
The Biggest Risk To Stocks Is Not The Fed
The most significant risk to stocks is not the Fed. Over the next few months, you will see a lot of articles suggesting that initial rate hikes from the Fed don’t impact stocks. Such as this one: “Historical analyses put together by Evercore ISI’s Ed Hyman and The...
Inflation by the Numbers
Milton Friedman famously said inflation is “always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” He was right but that short statement doesn’t fully explain how inflation works. It has other causes, too. The period in which he did his most famous research showed inflation...
“Wipe Out” Below The Calm Surface Of The Bull Market
“Wipe Out” is an appropriate description of what is happening beneath the calm surface of the bull market. As we head into the end of the year, many are hoping for “Santa to visit Broad and Wall.” However, those hopes are not just about adding to this year’s already...
Panic Selling To Panic Buying In One Week
In this 12-10-21 issue of “Panic Selling To Panic Buying In One Week?” Panic Selling Turns To Panic Buying Market Gets A Breadth Mint Minsky’s View On Stability Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook,...
What Really Caused Inflation
You won’t be surprised to know I disagree with recent Federal Reserve policy choices. The Fed’s future choices are more important, though. Debating what they should do is one thing. Anticipating what they will do is critical. Today we’ll “war game” what the Fed is...
Back up the Truck to buy INVU shares
“Back up the truck to buy INVU shares” has been exclusively available to ShinyPennyStocks.com subscribers since November 29, 2021. “Back up the truck” is an old saying that is used by professionals on Wall Street on rare occasions. Another is “buy it with both...
Market Predictions For 2022 – Two Opposing Views
“(Market) Predictions Are Difficult…Especially When They Are About The Future” – Niels Bohr Okay, I took a little poetic license. However, the point is that while we try, we can’t predict the future. If we could, fortune tellers would win all of the lotteries. But,...
Omicron Selloff, Is It Over Yet?
In this 12-03-21 issue of “Is the Omicron Selloff Over Yet?” What’s Driving The Omicron Market Sell-Off Did The Omicron Selloff Set Up The Santa Rally? Internal Measures Suggest Risk Remains Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow...
Capital Excess
Why do we invest? Everyone has their reasons, but funding retirement may be the most common one. Whenever the time comes, we want to relax in comfort and security. Yet this whole “retirement” idea is really quite new. For most of human history, almost everyone worked...
Market Correction Before The Santa Rally Has Started
Last week, we asked if there would be a market correction before “Santa visits Broad and Wall?” “Investors’ ‘wish lists’ are hung by the chimney with care, hopeful the ‘Santa Claus rally’ will soon be there. While they remain ‘snug in their beds, the historical data...
Blowout quarter for Investview
Investview (INVU) reported their financial results for their quarter ended September 30, 2021. The blowout results were, as I had anticipated. Operating and free cash flow results came in as expected. For more highlights covering financial results see Investview...
“Black Friday” Plunges As Covid Variant Rattles Markets
In this 11-26-21 issue of “Black Friday” Plunges As Market Rattled By Covid Variant “Black Friday” As Market Plunges Time To Buy Oil Yes, Interest Rates Will Matter Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook,...
Worth a Thousand Words
Happy Thanksgiving! I hope everyone had a good holiday. I’m writing this issue early in the week while enroute to join family in Dallas. Today will be different and I hope you like it. The charts and comments below are drawn from the “Clips That Matter” feature of...
Due to blow out results, BUY and do not SELL Investview (INVU) shares
Santa Claus Rally Is Coming, But Will Markets Correct First?
Investors have high hopes for the annual “Santa Claus” rally. But, could there be a correction before “Santa visits Broad and Wall?” At the moment, investors are “making their list, and checking it twice.” Sure, prices remain near all-time highs, but the Fed is...
The “FOMO” Rises As Investors Push Risk Bets 11-19-21
In this 11-19-21 issue of “The FOMO Rises As Investors Push Risk Bets” Market Consolidates Gains Near Highs FOMO Is Evident As Investors Chase Returns The Next Financial Crisis Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter,...
After Pullback, Investview shares are once again ridiculously undervalued
ShinyPennyStocks.com is highly recommending that INVU shares be purchased today November 19, 2021, at a price of up to $0.10 for two reasons: INVU will be reporting its financials for its quarter ended September 30, 2021. Based on my research of the company’s...
Shortages Are Relative
In some simplistic economic theories, shortages never happen. Supply and demand for any particular good are always perfectly balanced in a given time and place. If you can’t get what you demand at that moment, you pay a higher price or you demand something else. But...
Trade “The Off-The-Charts Bull Market”
“How do you trade this off-the-charts bull market?” That was an email question I got last week that deserves a deeper explanation. However, let me start with an excellent note from Global Macro Monitor, ironically entitled “The Off-The-Charts Bull Market.” “Bezos,...
Inflation In Irrational Exuberance 11-12-21
In this 11-12-21 issue of “Inflation In Irrational Exuberance.” Market Stalls Ahead Of Options Expiration Sentiment Is Showing Irrational Exuberance Inflation Is Surging Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter,...
Investview, Ridiculously Undervalued!
From my analysis of Investview’s Financial Statements, I discovered five reasons why the company’s shares are ridiculously undervalued at any price below $0.10. The shares closed at $0.07 on Thursday, November 11, 2021. If Investview shares were listed on the NASDAQ...
ShinyPennyStocks.com Subscriber Alert: URGENT
ShinyPennyStocks.com’s (SPS) research update covering Investview (symbol: INVU) will be published by as early as 1:00PM today. The 11/5/21 update explained why the Cammarata issue presented a rare buying opportunity and promised that an updated report on INVU would...
Investview shares, Screaming “BUY”
Investview shares are a Screaming “BUY” The shares of Investview (OTCBB:INVU), one of the US’s three largest publicly traded bitcoin miners are a screaming buy. The shares have declined by as much as 46% from yesterday’s closing price of $0.0963. ...
Energy Complexity
If I had to describe my last 500 letters in one word, it would be “complexity.” The older I get, the more I realize problems I once thought had reasonably straightforward solutions are, in fact, hideously complicated. That doesn’t make them unsolvable but it reduces...
Fundamentally Speaking: 2022 Earnings Estimates Still Too Bullish
Fundamentally speaking, there are more than a few indications that 2022 earnings estimates are still overly exuberant. However, the bullish optimism currently supports rising stock prices. Such was a point I touched on in this past weekend’s newsletter: “Overall, 56%...
Market “Melts Up” As Economic Growth Weakens 10-29-21
In this 10-29-21 issue of “Market ‘Melts Up’ As Economic Growth Weakens.” Market Back To Extreme Overbought Economic Growth Weakens Earnings Expectations Way Ahead Of Reality Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter,...
Trick or Treat Economy
To Jerome Powell and the Fed: It’s a lesson too late for the learning,Made of sand, made of sand.In the wink of an eye, prices are risingIn your hand, by your hand. Are you going away with no word of farewell,Will you leave your inflation behind?You should have...
Technically Speaking: The Bull & Bear Market Case – Part 2
Last week’s “Technically Speaking” covered the first part of the bull and bear market case as we head into the end of the year. As we noted, investors face a conundrum between year-end seasonality and the Fed starting to taper its bond-buying program. I received lots...
Stocks Surge As Earnings Roll-In, But Is Risk Gone? 10-22-21
In this 10-22-21 issue of “Stocks Surge As Earnings Roll-In, But Is Risk Gone?” Market Surges Toward Previous Highs It’s Been A Very Long-Time WIthout A Deeper Correction A Sea Of Liquidity Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us...
When Tools Stop Working
Because I believe in the division of labor, I rarely use hand tools today. In the ‘80s and ‘90s, I had two 4 x 8 pegboards on my garage wall full of tools along with my large Craftsman toolbox. I had the right tool for every job around the car, house, and yard. I...
Technically Speaking: The Bullish & Bearish Market Case
We dig into the bullish and bearish case for the market as we head into the end of the year. Currently, investors face a conundrum between year-end seasonality and the Fed starting to taper its bond-buying program. Such was evident in a recent email I received from a...
Bulls Regain Control Of The Market As Fed Taper Looms
In this 10-15-21 issue of “Bulls Regain Control Of The Market As Fed Taper Looms.” Market Rallies As Earnings Season Kicks Off FOMC Minutes Confirm Fed Taper Coming Navigating Uncertainty Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us...
Logistical Sandpiles
At the risk of overusing a favorite metaphor, today we’ll talk about sandpiles. My past sandpile stories focused on financial crises. The same principle holds in any complex system, though. Everything works until suddenly it doesn’t. As Minsky said, stability breeds...
Expert crash predictor says October Crash or Correction unlikely
Michael Markowski's position has shifted as a result of a reversal in the Bull Vix algorithm's recent MACRO readings. The crash expert, who has predicted every crash since 2016, now predicts that no crash or significant correction will occur for the major market...
Technically Speaking: Is The Risk Of A Bigger Correction Over?
Is the risk of a more significant correction over now that the expected 5% decline is complete? That was a hotly debated question after this past weekend’s newsletter supporting the idea of a reflexive rally into year-end. As I stated: “After a harrowing 5% decline,...
Is The Great “Bear Market” Of 2021 Finally Over? 10-08-21
In this 10-08-21 issue of “Is The Great ‘Bear Market’ Of 2021 Finally Over.? Is The “Great Bear Market” Finally Over? Debt Ceiling Resolution Is Only Temporary Odds Are We’ve Seen The Highs For The Year Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan...
China’s Gilded Age Is Over
Historical comparisons are always risky. This is particularly so when comparing different eras in vastly different countries like the US and China. Similarities can actually obscure more important differences. Nevertheless, familiar knowledge can help build a...
Technically Speaking: Bears Gain Control As Market Fails Resistance
With yesterday’s rout, the “bears” gained control of the narrative as the market failed at resistance. In this past weekend’s newsletter, we discussed the market reclaiming the 100-dma on Friday. To wit: “It is worth noting there are two primary support levels for the...
S&P 500 Monthly Valuation & Analysis Review – 09-30-21
S&P 500 Monthly Valuation & Analysis Review: 08-31-21 Also, read our commentary on why low rates don’t justify high valuations. J. Brett Freeze, CFA, founder of Global Technical Analysis. Each month Brett will provide you their valuable S&P 500 Valuation...
Xi’s Changing Plan
Six months ago, few Americans had heard of Evergrande. Now many worry this Chinese property developer’s downfall will start an economically devastating chain reaction. They’re right about the chain reaction part, but I don’t think it will “devastate” anyone outside...
Déjà Vu metrics indicate high probability for October Crash
Michael Markowski, who utilized his Bull & Bear Tracker (BBT) algorithm to predict the October 2018 market crash says the BBT’s current déjà vu metrics indicate a high probability for an October 2021 Crash. Markowski’s headline for his Friday October 5, 2018...
Correction Is Over. Bulls Jump Back Into The Risk Pool 09-24-21
In this 09-24-21 issue of “‘Correction Is Over, Bulls Jump Back Into The Risk Pool“ Correction Is Over Fed Threads The Needle On Taper. 3-Signs For The Next Bear Market Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter,...
What Could Go Wrong?
I have written several letters on the theme that the best investment posture is cautious optimism. Pessimism and bearishness never get you in the game, while untamed optimism means that at some point, you’ll have a serious setback. The cautiously optimistic investor...
Technically Speaking: Stocks Bounce Off The Lows. Time To Buy?
On Monday, stocks solidly cracked below the 50-dma, but the bounce off the lows has investors asking if it’s “time to buy?” The sell-off was not unexpected. As I discussed in “Investors Fail To Buy The Dip:” “We can attribute the weakness on Friday to ‘quadruple...
Investors Fail To “BTFD” As They Await Fed “Taper.” 09-17-21
In this 09-17-21 issue of “‘Investors Fail To BTFD As They Await Fed Taper.“ Investors Fail To BTFD The Slope Of Hope A Reason The Fed Can’t Taper…Yet Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In,...
Inflation: Less Transitory than Expected
If the inflation numbers leave you scratching your head, join the club. The August data was especially perplexing. The Producer Price Index came in hot, up 8.3% in the last year, inviting 1970s comparisons. Obviously, our current situation is different in many ways....
Technically Speaking: Too Many Bears Looking For A Correction?
Are there too many “bears” looking for a correction? When it comes to financial markets, there is one truism as noted in Bob Farrell’s famous investment rules: “When all experts agree, something else tends to happen.” Such makes perfect sense given that the “market”...
Investors Hold Record Allocations Despite Rising Warnings 09-10-21
In this 09-10-21 issue of “‘Investors Hold Record Allocations Despite Rising Warnings.“ Market Starts Correction Right On Cue. Investors Record Allocations & Rising Warnings Beige Book Highlights Fed’s Biggest Problem Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market...
The Return of Stagflation
I have been writing this letter for 22 years. Sometimes I look into the future and other times merely try to explain the present. Today I’m going to look at several possible futures. There are forces at work in both Congress and the Federal Reserve that could take us...
Stocks could be due for a correction of up to 20% ‘by fire or ice’: Morgan Stanley strategist
Morgan Stanley’s Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says investors should always be positioned for a market correction of 10%, but warned that investors may not be ready for a harsher correction that could be coming soon. “You should always be expecting a 10%...
Technically Speaking: Wall Street Sets Its Sights On S&P 5000
Just recently in our “Daily Market Commentary” (subscribe for free), we discussed Wall Street setting its sights on S&P 5000. “Wells Fargo’s Chris Harvey raised his year-end S&P 500 price target to 4,825 from 3,850, as reported by Bloomberg’s Lu Wang. This...
Can The Bulls Defy The Odds Of September Weakness? 09-03-21
In this 09-03-21 issue of “‘Can The Bulls Defy The Odds Of September Weakness?“ Can Bulls Defy The September Weakness Who’s Going To Fund The Deficit As Expected – GDP Gets Downgraded Sharply Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager...
Human Capital Losses
Remember math class? Let me give you a quick refresher. In the equation 3 x 5 = 15, the 3 and 5 are factors, and 15 is the product. You can’t have a product without factors. In economics we talk about “factors of production.” If you want to produce something, you need...
Technically Speaking: The Bulls Warn The Fed Not To Taper
As the Fed started to talk about “taper,” the “bulls” sent a stern warning with a 2% “crash” they shouldn’t. After a couple of weeks of several Fed speakers discussing the need to reduce monetary accommodation, a quick sell-off brought had Powell singing a “dovish”...
Japanization: The S&P 500 Is Tracking The Nikkei Of 1980
The question of Japanization in the U.S. continues as the S&P 500 tracks the Nikkei of 1980. An email question I received recently is worth discussing in more detail. While it is easy to assume “this time is different,” the “Fed won’t let markets collapse,” or...
Perfect Storms
Having been Puerto Rico residents for almost three years now, Shane and I have learned a few things about living in the tropics. In Dallas, we didn’t often think about hurricanes, though we did have tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. Ditto for earthquakes. North...
Technically Speaking: “Pet Rocks” & Other Signs Of A Rich Market
“Pet Rocks” first appeared in the mid-70s as a novelty item. Just recently, digital NFT’s of “pet rocks” sold for over $100,000. To wit: “Rarely do they create waves for investing in something as dead as a rock. Well, they do now. A digital painting of a Grey-coloured...
The Fed Blinks On Taper, Bulls Buy The Dip Again 08-20-21
In this 08-20-21 issue of “The Fed Blinks On Taper, Bulls Buy The Dip Again.” Bulls Buy The Dip…Again. Speculative Fevor Is Fading 30-Year Yield “Death Cross” Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook,...
Buy Businesses, Not Stocks
I write this letter on my way home from Steamboat Springs, Colorado, where I spoke to the fascinating “GoBundance” group of mostly young, successful, enthusiastic entrepreneurs. Before that I was in Grand Lake Stream, Maine, for the Camp Kotok economics/fishing...
Technically Speaking: 6-Positive Market Months. What Happens Next?
In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of 6-positive market months in a row. To wit: “An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months. As shown in the 10-year monthly chart below, such streaks are a rarity,...
Bulls Charge Ahead On Hopes Fed Stands Pat 08-13-21
In this 08-13-21 issue of “Bulls Charge Ahead On Hopes Fed Stands Pat.” Market Rally Gains Steam Market Internals Extraordinarily Weak The Fed Gave Investors No Choice Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter,...
Ubiquity, Complexity, and Sandpiles
“How did you go bankrupt?” “Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” ―Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises Change happens quickly and, often, unpredictably. And as we will see, the unpredictable part is actually a mathematical principle. As in the Hemingway quote above,...
Technically Speaking: A Test Of The 200-DMA Is Coming
A test of the 200-dma is coming. The only questions are when and what will cause it? Two weeks ago in the Real Investment Report (subscribe for free email delivery), I discussed the rather long span of 6-straight positive return months. “An additional ‘red flag’ is...
Market Stalls At All-Time Highs Awaiting The Fed 08-06-21
In this 08-06-21 issue of “Market Stalls At All-Time Highs Awaiting The Fed.” Market Rally Stalls At All-Time Highs Fed Getting More Vocal On Taper Bond Rally Not Hard To Understand Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On:...
COVID Consumer Headache
If you look just at 2021, it seems the US economy is tearing higher. Real GDP grew an annualized +6.5% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department estimated last week. This follows a similar +6.3% first quarter, and a pandemic-interrupted 2020 that turned out not...
Technically Speaking: Past Performance Is A Guarantee?
“Past Performance Is no guarantee of future of results.” Such is the disclaimer below every performance chart produce by the financial marketplace. However, as Jason Zweig recently noted, that warning has taken on a different meaning: “Being told that historical...
Market Rally Continues As Earnings Beat Estimates 07-30-21
In this 07-30-21 issue of “Market Rally Continues As Earnings Beat Estimates.” Market Rally Continues The Mirage Of Strong Earnings GDP Eclipses Pandemic Level Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook,...
Policy Errors Have Consequences
“T.S. Eliot once wrote, ‘Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go.’ It seems the US financial system is bound and determined to find out.” —John Hussman, July 29, 2021 “If I was Darth Vader and I wanted to destroy the US economy, I...
Technically Speaking: The Markets Next “Minsky Moment”
In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the issue of the markets next “Minsky Moment.” Today, I want to expand on that analysis to discuss how the Fed’s drive to create “stability” eventually creates “instability.” In 2007, I was at a conference where Paul...
Secular Bear Birth, Bull Death May 7, 2021
Many investors are excited due to the S&P 500 attaining a new all-time high on July 26, 2021. However, based on the following the probability is high that a new Secular Bear, the first since 2000-2009 and 10th since 1802 was born on May 7, 2021. The bear’s birth...
Bulls “Buy The Dip” But Is The Risk Really Over? 07-23-21
In this 07-23-21 issue of “Bulls Buy The Dip But Is The Risk Really Over?” Bulls Buy The Dip & The Next Minsky Moment Trading Sardines The Fed Is Deflationary Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook,...
Federal Reserve Folly
Great news: The US economy is officially out of recession. We know this because the National Bureau of Economic Research’s official recession-calling committee said so this week. The economy has been in an expansion phase since last April, making this the shortest...
Technically Speaking: Hedge Funds Ramp Up Exposure
The “Fear Of Missing Out” has infected retail and hedge funds alike as they ramp up exposure to chase performance. We have previously discussed the near “mania” of retail investors taking on exceptional risk in various manners. From increasing leverage, engaging in...
Earnings Kick Off With Markets Priced For Perfection 07-16-21
In this 07-16-21 issue of “Earnings Kick Off With Markets Priced For Perfection.” Market Pulls Back As Signals Turn Earnings Season Has A High Bar Markets Priced For Perfection Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter,...
Xi’s Big Mistake
I have mixed feelings about China. On the plus side, I think the country’s massive economic transformation may be one of the most impressive events in human history. Bringing hundreds of millions from primitive rural lives into relatively prosperous cities within a...
Technically Speaking: Bubbles Are Evident After They Pop
Bubbles are evident and only get acknowledged after they pop. Such is because, during the inflation phase of the market bubble, investors rationalize why “this time is different.” We have seen many examples of this rationalization over the last couple of years. Such...
Yields Plunge. Dollar Surges. The Reflation Trade Unravels. 07-09-21
In this 07-09-21 issue of “Yields Plunge Dollar Surges The Reflation Trade Unravels.“ Market Pulls Back As Signals Turn Yield Plunge, Dollar Surge The Reflation Trade Unravels Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter,...
TINA Is Stupid
In the 1980s, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher liked to say, “There is no alternative” to her market-driven economic reform ideas. She said it so much people began abbreviating it as “TINA.” Whatever you think of Lady Thatcher’s policies, the slogan was...
Technically Speaking: Is The Retail Investor Rampage Over?
Is the retail investor rampage over? Since the crash in March 2020, the “retail investor army” marched propelled by chat rooms and social media channels. As discussed previously in “Blind Leading The Blind:” In all, 46% have used social media for investing...
As Good As It Gets. Will Q2 Mark Peak Reporting? 07-02-21
In this 07-02-21 issue of “As Good As It Gets Will Q2 Mark Peak Reporting?“ Market Rallies To Start Q3 As Good As It Gets Fully Invested Bears Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud,...
The New Inquisition
It is as essential to democracy that the minority should voluntarily submit to the measures adopted as it is that the majority should voluntarily approve them. Democratic government rests upon the principle that it is better to count heads than it is to break them....
Technically Speaking: Warnings From Behind The Curtain
“Warnings From Behind The Curtain” almost sounds like the title of a good “Cold War” fiction novel. However, this time, the story is of warnings for investors not often discussed by the mainstream media. Notably, there is a necessary clarification that must get made....
Market Rallies To All-Time Highs As Bulls Dismiss Fed 06-25-21
In this 06-25-21 issue of “Market Rallies To All-Time Highs As Bulls Dismiss Fed.“ Market Rally And Signal Conundrum Bullishness Is Back Hard Data Getting Soft Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook,...
Long Humanity
“At the end of the day” is a trite figure of speech, but it sometimes fits. It signals you’ve used all your time, and now you’ll wrap up and begin thinking about tomorrow. I like to say designing the Strategic Investment Conference agenda is my personal art form....
Technically Speaking: COT Report Shows Stage Set For Volatility
A couple of weeks ago, in “Warning Signs A Correction Is Ahead,” we said quite a few indicators set the stage for a pick-up in volatility. A review of the latest Commitment Of Traders (COT) report suggests the same. “During a ‘bullish advance,’ investors become...
Fed Signals Taper. Will It Be Different This Time? 06/18/21
In this 06-18-21 issue of “Fed Signals Taper. Will It Be Different This Time?“ Reviewing Market Signals Will It Be Different This Time. Inflation Is Surging But Will It Last Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: Rates, Dollar & The 2021 Outlook Sector & Market...
Strategic Investment Potpourri
If it seems I have been talking about the Strategic Investment Conference for weeks… well, you’re right. It really was that much to unpack, and I’ve still only scratched the surface. I will wrap up next week. First, however, I want to make sure you get a few other...
Imminent SP500 correction as Inflation scare will turn to Growth scare
We’ve witnessed some incredible extremes in economic numbers from depression era data due to the complete shutdown of the global economy to red hot 1970’s style inflation due to the vaccine and reopening. Last year the consensus was that it would take years for the...
Technically Speaking: Slowly At First, Then All At Once
Bull markets always seem to end the same – slowly at first, then all at once. My recent discussion on why March 2020 was a “correction” and not a “bear market” sparked much debate over the somewhat arbitrary 20% rule. “Price is nothing more than a reflection of the...
Reviewing Market Signals As Warnings Increase 06-11-21
In this 06-11-21 issue of “Reviewing Market Signals As Warnings Increase.“ Reviewing Market Signals Warnings Increase Bonds Say Deflation Is A Risk Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: Rates, Dollar & The 2021 Outlook Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager...
Politics with No Labels
You can’t always get what you wantBut if you try sometime you findYou get what you need There’s no way around it: Investing in public companies is always political. Corporations exist because governments charter these artificial entities and legally shield the owners...
Technically Speaking: Warning Signs A Correction Is Ahead
After a decent rally from the recent lows, there are multiple warning signs a correction approaches. Over the last few weeks, we discussed the rising risk of a correction between 5-10%, most likely this summer. Such drawdowns are historically very common within any...
Market Hits All-Time Highs As Money Flows Peak 06-04-21
In this 06-04-21 issue of “Market Hits All-Time Highs As Money Flows Peak.“ Market Review And Update Risk Of A Summer Sell-Off The Lack Of Value In Value Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: Yellen’s Push To Offshore Labor Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager...
Technology Rules
Macroeconomic forecasting is too politicized. I don’t mean that in a partisan sense, though it may be so. The bigger problem is that forecasters spend most of their time thinking about central bank decisions and government policies. In the long run, those aren’t the...
Technically Speaking: Are “Sell Signals” Useless In “Mania” Markets?
A recent Bloomberg article made the case that since 2009 “sell signals” are useless during “mania” markets. To wit: “If you bailed because of Bollinger Bands, ran away from relative strength or took direction from the directional market indicator in 2021, you paid for...
Tiered Buy Limit strategy Yields 407 percent gain since April 1st
As of May 30, 2021, the shares of Vertex Energy Inc. (VTNR) had increased by 400% since ShinyPennyStocks.com recommended them on April 1, 2021. Subscribers who followed the site’s Tiered Buy Limit (TBL) instructions were able to reduce their cost basis to $1.46 as...
China, Yields, And The Coming Deflationary Impulse 05-28-21
In this 05-28-21 issue of “China, Yields, And The Coming Deflationary Impulse.“ Market Review And Update China Drives Inflation Yields Need A New Narrative Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: Bear Markets Matter More Than You Think Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan...
Deflation Talk
If you could ask the world’s top central bankers what really terrifies them, I think the honest answer would usually be “deflation.” It is their greatest nightmare. They think a little inflation is good (thus the 2%+ target), and they’re confident they can subdue it...
Technically Speaking: Picking Up Pennies In Front Of A Steamroller
“I take my hat off that you are able to continue picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. Reading your newsletter, I scratch my head in amazement at your ability to increase your exposures in a market you admit is the most expensive ever.” – @mlevin999 That was a...
Bulls Buy Stocks, As Fed Starts Talk Of Taper 05-21-21
In this 05-21-21 issue of “Bulls Buy Stocks, As Fed Starts To Talk Taper.“ Market Review And Update Fed Starts To Talk Taper Risk Is Elevated Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: NFIB Data Says It’s Only A Recovery Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us...
Subscriber notice: “Sweeping changes to BullVix methodology & Trading strategies” video a must view
The 5/16/21 BullVix webinar, which articulated on the sweeping changes for the methodology of the BullVix algorithm, is now available in its entirety or via a 6 part series. The video explains the three separate, low to high maintenance trading strategies, which are...
Expecting Inflation
The annual whirlwind is over. SIC was once again a mental overload. This year our virtual schedule spread it over almost two weeks, which was actually nice. The in-between days let the ideas settle a bit before the firehose opened again. Fifty powerful, thoughtful...
Technically Speaking: Yardeni – The Market Will Soon Reach 4500
“The strong economic recovery will not get interrupted by inflation or a credit crunch, and the market will soon reach 4,500.” – Ed Yardeni via Advisor Perspectives After discussing BofA’s view of why the market could drop to 3800, I thought it fair to discuss a more...
Despite Surging Inflation, The Bulls Shake Off Weakness 05-14-21
In this 05-14-21 issue of “Despite Surging Inflation, The Bulls Shake Off Weakness.“ Market Review And Update Rates Doing The Fed’s Work The Fed Will Be Late Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: NFIB Data Says It’s Only A Recovery Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan...
A Giant Consumptive Force
The SIC was in full swing this week. I am finishing this on Friday morning, a few hours before the start of the last official day and then a “Plus Day” on Tuesday. My mind is swimming with new connections and revelations. While the live events are mostly over now,...
Subscriber notice: Trading Strategy adjustments for BullVix’s 2020/2021 VixVortex
The article “S&P 500 is in a ‘VixVortex'; Expect Double-Digit Decline,” published on 5/8/21, explains what I consider to be my most important ever breakthrough. Harnessing the Vix has been the most intellectually demanding and exciting endeavor I've undertaken in...
Technically Speaking: If Everyone Sees It, Is It Still A Bubble?
“If everyone sees it, is it still a bubble?” That was a great question I got over the weekend. As a “contrarian” investor, it is usually when “everyone” is talking about an event; it doesn’t happen. As Mark Hulbert noted recently, “everyone” is worrying about a...
S&P 500 is in a “VixVortex”; Expect Double-Digit Decline
The "VixVortex" was discovered as a result of recently completed studies on market volatility and the CBOE's empirical data for the VIX from 2002 to 2021. The fourth VixVortex for the S&P 500 is currently in progress. The minimum to maximum decline for the S&P...
Poor Jobs Report Gives Bulls A Reason To Charge 05-08-21
In this 05-08-21 issue of “Poor Jobs Report Gives Bulls A Reason To Charge.“ Market Review And Update Peak Earnings Bonds Aren’t Buying It Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: No. Bonds Aren’t Overvalued. Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan...
This Kind of Duality
We’re midway through the SIC 2021, and as I expected, it’s shaping up to be the biggest and best Strategic Investment Conference I’ve ever hosted. So far, all of our presenters and panelists have given stellar performances... and attendees seem to agree with that...
Technically Speaking: Doug Kass’ 50-Laws Of Investing
Over the years I have published numerous articles with “investing laws” from some of the great investors in history. These laws, or rules, are born of experience, tested by markets, and survived time. Here are some of our previous posts: Bob Farrell’s 10-Rules Desktop...
All Inflation Is Transitory. The Fed Will Be Late Again. 04-30-21
In this issue of “All Inflation Is Transitory, The Fed WIll Be Late Again.“ Market Review And Update All Inflation Is Temporary The Fed Should Be Hiking Now Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: No. Bonds Aren’t Overvalued. Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager...
Anomaly of a Recovery
We did the first Strategic Investment Conference 18 years ago. I remember one of the partners in the firm that cohosted the event telling me as I walked up to the stage, “John, it doesn’t get any better than this. Don’t screw it up.” He was wrong. Every year the...
Technically Speaking: Forward Returns Continue To Fall
One of the interesting aspects of “bull markets” is the further they go, the lower forward returns fall. In hindsight, such an idea seems counter-intuitive, but ultimately it always comes down to valuations. As Warren Buffett once quipped: “Price is what you pay....
Stocks Vs. Rates – Which One Is Most Likely Right? 04-24-21
In this 04-24-21 issue of “Stocks vs. Rates – Which One Is Most Likely Right?“ Market Review And Update Market Pricing In Huge Recovery Interest Rates Are Not Convinced Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: Siegel On Why Stocks Could Rise 30% Sector & Market Analysis...
Stumbling to Scarcity
In economic forecasting, reality is usually somewhere between the extremes. The best-case and worst-case rarely happen. That’s why, when they do happen, markets react so quickly to the “missed expectations.” I saw this early in my career. Realizing we will “muddle...
Technically Speaking: Is BofA Right About A Market Drop To 3800?
Recently, Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian discussed why the market could drop to 3800. She discussed her thesis in her latest strategy note titled “Five Reasons To Curb Your Enthusiasm.” This analysis is interesting, particularly when analysts are rushing to...
Market Continues Its Rally As Earnings Season Starts 04-16-21
In this 04-16-21 issue of “Market Continues Its Rally As Earnings Season Starts.“ Market Review And Update China Is A Risk Hard To Justify Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: Biden Stimulus Will Cut Poverty For One-Year Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager...
Tsunami Warning
A tsunami is a wall of water that wipes out everything in its path, typically caused by earthquakes. But first, the water actually disappears from the usual shoreline, leaving land where there should be sea. A tsunami is a wall of water that wipes out everything in...
12 Years old Secular Bull Market alive, but not well!
The secular bull market which began at the March 2009 low is alive, but not well, according to the findings from my recently conducted research. Many analysts and advisors are of the opinion that the 34% decline for the S&P 500 to its 2020 bottom was the end of a...
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Statements made by Michael Markowski and Profitfromthecrash.com pertaining to returns made from investing in Airbnb, UBER and Snapchat are not indicative of a TRACK RECORD. They are examples for educational purposes only.