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Growth Pains

In stock investing there’s a management style called “growth at a reasonable price” or GARP. It seeks to achieve steadier results by avoiding both expensive growth stocks and beaten-down value stocks. We can apply a similar idea to economic growth. Everyone wants the...

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Contrarian Trade. Everyone Remains Bearish

From a contrarian investing view, everyone remains bearish despite a market that corrected all of last year. I polled my Twitter followers recently to take their pulse on the market. Of the 1280 votes cast in the poll, roughly 73% of respondents anticipate the market...

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Slow Change Speeds Up

The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the...

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The “Pain Trade” Is Higher For Now

The “pain trade” is likely higher over the next few weeks. I touched on this topic in this past weekend’s “Bull Bear Report:” Not surprisingly, the “bullish” short-term outlook garnered a substantial amount of pushback. However, there is more to this outlook than just...

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The Punchbowl Is Gone

The Federal Open Market Committee’s 12 voting members differ on where they think interest rates should go this year. But we know they’re unanimously against cutting rates until at least 2024—or at least they were as of December, according to that meeting’s minutes....

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Home Prices Will Likely Fall Further

Home prices have started to correct as interest rates rose sharply in 2022. However, the real problem for home prices is still coming in 2023 as the standoff between sellers and buyers comes to a head. However, before we get there, let’s review how we got here. Since...

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The Lag Effect Of The Fiscal Pig & Economic Python

The lag effect of monetary policy changes will surprise the Fed as the fiscal “pig” of stimulus begins to exit the economic “python.” For those unfamiliar with the term “pig in a python,” it refers to when a python consumes its prey. It does so by swallowing it whole,...

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Year of the Pause

“Every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end.” — Seneca, the Elder “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard.” — H.L. Mencken Welcome to 2023. It’s Forecast Season on Wall Street, the time...

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The Fed’s “7% Solution” Won’t Work This Time

Just recently, James Bullard, President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, suggested the central bank might need to employ the “7% solution” to ensure the complete destruction of inflation. As we have discussed previously, the fear is repeating the policy errors of the...

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Financials say “Buy Investview” Shares

Investview’s share price has been obliterated due to the company having a significant bitcoin mining operation.  The shares price is reflecting that the Investview is a bankruptcy candidate.   The chart below depicts the share prices of the five largest publicly...

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Higher for Longer

This will be my last letter of 2022. I want to use this letter as a set-up for my annual forecast issue the first week of January. That means we will touch on a variety of topics, kind of a snapshot into where my mind is today. Get ready to travel the world but let’s...

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Valuation Math Suggests Difficult Markets In 2023

In 2023, the math of valuations suggests returns will likely be challenging as markets remain difficult to navigate. Estimating price targets for the next full trading year is an exercise in futility. Too many variables, from politics to economics to monetary and...

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Recession Scale

Economic news—and market reactions to it—increasingly resemble a tennis game. Spectators follow the ball back and forth, thinking something will happen but usually it doesn’t. Last week, for instance, many investors got excited when they thought Jerome Powell was...

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Will A Dollar Decline Be Good For Stocks? – Part 1

Will a dollar decline be good for stocks? It is an interesting question, given that during 2022 there was a significant non-correlation between the dollar and the stock market. The strong dollar rally was something I suggested could be a problem for stocks, given what...

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The Bull Case Has A Two Problems

Since the beginning of October, the market has performed better as a “Fed Pivot” bull case pushed investors into the market. We previously laid out the case for a strong “short squeeze” around the lows of September, stating: “Currently, everybody is bearish. Not just...

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The Economy Is a-Changin’

Then you better start swimmin'Or you'll sink like a stoneFor the times they are a-changin' —Bob Dylan, "The Times They Are A-Changin'" Change is constant, in the economy and everything else. We talk about it often. Yet when we talk about the economy changing, we...

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Lessons From The “Nifty Fifty”

Recently, Bank of America discussed the “5-Lessons From The Nifty Fifty.” Of course, if you are unfamiliar with the importance of “The Nifty Fifty,” it is worth explaining. The “Nifty Fifty” refers to the fifty most popular large-cap stocks in the 1960s and 70s. These...

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Short seller Jim Chanos blasts crypto, warns the S&P 500 may plunge 55%, and predicts Tesla’s growth will slow in a new interview. Here are the 10 best quotes.

Jim Chanos tore into crypto after Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX exchange imploded. The short seller compared the crypto crash to the dot-com bubble bursting. Chanos expects the S&P 500 to plunge, Tesla’s growth to slow, and Twitter to distract Elon Musk. Jim Chanos has...

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An Interview with Keith Fitz-Gerald

Last week, I introduced you to my friend of 20+ years, Keith Fitz-Gerald of Keith Fitz-Gerald Research. As I mentioned, I recently signed up for his Morning! 5 With Fitz free research email, and I'm enjoying it immensely. This week, around my trip to a far-too-cold...

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More Bearish Market Action Before The Bull Can Run

Following the weaker-than-expected October inflation report, stocks surged on hopes the Fed will “pivot” sooner than later. As we discussed recently, a “policy pivot” is not necessarily bullish but instead suggests more bearish market action will come first. To wit:...

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Digital Shiny Objects

Financial crises are really about trust. They tend to occur when people lose trust in assets, institutions, or people they had thought trustworthy. Whether the lost trust was a consequence of the crisis, or its cause is a different question. But they do seem to go...

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Hard Landing Coming? Investors Don’t Think So.

Is a “hard landing” coming, economically speaking, as the Fed continues its most aggressive rate hike campaign in 40 years? Investors don’t seem to think so as investors continue to chase economically sensitive stocks despite the underlying economic deterioration....

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Midterm Elections Are Bullish Even In A Bear Market

With the midterm elections behind us, does the market outlook improves given a now gridlocked Congress? Historically speaking, such is the case. As noted by Michael Cannivet via Forbes: “Before you hit the panic ‘Sell Everything’ button, though, it’s worth considering...

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Recession Thoughts

Early this week, with the severe inverted yield curve and other signals flashing recession, I planned to use this letter to delve into the data. Then Thursday’s CPI data convinced markets to blow the all-clear whistle. Lack of any “green shoots” would have been out of...

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The “Policy Pivot” May Not Be Bullish

Since June, the market rallied on hopes of a “policy pivot” by the Federal Reserve. However, those hopes got dashed each time as Jerome Powell clarified that the “inflation fight” remained the primary focus. Mr. Powell made that point very clear following the latest...

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There Really Is No Middle Class Any Longer

There was a time when a large portion of Americans belonged to the “middle class.” It meant you could afford a decent living standard, such as owning a house and a car and had savings in the bank. When “baby boomers” reminisce about the “good ole days,” they are...

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Dangerous Assumptions

Historically speaking, this phase of life we call “retirement” is a new concept. The idea you could stop working at a certain age was unknown until quite recently. People worked as long as they physically could, then died quickly unless they had family or servants to...

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Are The FANG Stocks Dead?

Are the FANG stocks dead? Or, to be clear, are the MANNGMAT stocks dead? Of course, we are talking about the big technology heavyweights of Meta (FB), Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX), Nvidia (NVDA), Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA)....

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October Market Lows And The End Of Bear Markets

October started strong and then slid to new lows but managed to rally back toward the month’s end. As noted in “As Buybacks Return:” “The Dow is on pace for its best month since 1976. It is also close to its best month since 1938. So far, the Dow is up four straight...

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Turning Bullish on Energy

I literally grew up in the oil patch: Wise County, Texas, 60 or 70 miles northwest of Fort Worth in a little town called Bridgeport. The two first-generation Greek immigrant brothers who became Mitchell Energy talked old man Christie into funding Christie, Mitchell...

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The Treasury Market Is The Fed’s Next Crisis

The Fed’s next crisis is already brewing. Unlike 2008, where “subprime mortgages” froze counter-party trading in the credit markets as Lehman Brothers failed, in 2022, it might just be the $27 Trillion Treasury market. When historians review 2022, many will remember...

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Druckenmiller: A Decade Of No Returns

Is a “lost decade” ahead for markets? Stanly Druckenmiller believes that could be the case. “There’s a high probability in my mind that the market, at best, is going to be kind of flat for 10 years, sort of like this ’66 to ’82 time period.” Druckenmiller added that...

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“Recession Fatigue” As Consumers Begin To Break

“Recession Fatigue” is setting in as consumers struggle under rising interest rates, high inflation, and a declining stock market. Such was a point made in a recent CNBC article: “As the Federal Reserve aggressively raises rates to combat persistent inflation, the...

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Pension Sandpile

Sandpiles can be fun. Nothing beats taking kids to the beach (or being a kid!) and watching their creativity blossom into all kinds of magical shapes. The problem with sand construction is it doesn’t last. I have it on good authority that building your house on the...

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Where Are the Workers?

By now it should be clear Federal Reserve leaders intend to keep hiking until the economy breaks. Their recent speeches and interviews all underline this. Specifically, they want to reduce the strong consumer demand that has been keeping goods and service prices...

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The Strong Dollar Is A Risk To Corporate Profits

The strong dollar remains a risk to corporate profits and asset prices as the impact on the global economies grows. While many commentators argued the dollar would go bust due to the excessive debt levels in the U.S., such has hardly been the case. In 2022, as the...

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Currency Crescendo

Big problems usually begin as small problems. We see that in nature, where small disturbances become hurricanes, and we see it in the economy, too. So, it shouldn’t surprise us if the economic disturbances of the last years compound into something bigger. Going into...

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Mild Recession Likely To Be Worse Than Expected

A recent MarketWatch article discussed JPMorgan’s Chief Operating Officer, Daniel Pinto, views about a coming mild recession. “Pento said he’s reluctant to shed talent right away and may look to pick up bankers let go by other firms as inflation feeds talk of layoffs...

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The Big Short Squeeze Is Coming

The latest rate hike announcement by the Fed sent stocks tumbling to the year’s lows. While last week’s market action was brutal, the good news is the markets are set up for a rather significant short squeeze higher. It is quite likely the Fed has already tightened...

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Notes on Inflation

We were a bit preoccupied here in Puerto Rico this week. Hurricane Fiona decided to camp out over the island, bringing mind-boggling amounts of rain. I am sure you have seen the flooding pictures. The entire island lost power and much of it is still down. Our...

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Debt & Why The Fed Is Trapped

The massive debt levels provide the single most significant risk and challenge to the Federal Reserve. It is also why the Fed is desperate to return inflation to low levels, even if it means weaker economic growth. Such was a point previously made by Jerome Powell:...

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Buffett Indicator Says Markets Are Going To Crash?

“The ‘Buffett Indicator’ says the stock market will crash.“ Such was an email I received recently and was worthy of a more detailed discussion. Let me begin with my favorite line from “The Princess Bride.” “I do not think it means what you think it means.” The Buffett...

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Inflation Sinks In

Remember when inflation was going to be transitory? Good times. I was in that camp myself early on, as were some serious analysts I greatly respect (and still do). Then the data began to show core inflation would be stickier than expected, and I turned in my Team...

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Asset Bubbles & Forward Returns

Asset bubbles have been prevalent throughout history. Whether it was the “Tulip bubble” in the 1600s, the South Sea bubble of the 1700s, or the Dot.com bubble of 2000, they were all a result of excessive investor speculation. Of course, the other side of the inflation...

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Deficit Reduction. Is It Reality Or A Mirage?

Recently, the Biden Administration started taking victory laps on deficit reduction. Of course, the deficit remains the bully-pulpit of fiscal conservatives, so going into a mid-term election, it is not surprising to see it used for political advantage. “The bottom...

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Labor Mysteries

Politicians talk about “jobs, jobs, jobs” because a steady income keeps people happy and (mostly) voting for incumbents. Carville once told us, “It’s the economy, stupid,” and it always has been. Economies in recession are usually bad for those in power. Economists...

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Recession Signals Abound As Fed Hikes Rates

At the Jackson Hole Summit, Jerome Powell made it clear the Federal Reserve remains focused on combatting inflation despite recession signals rising in tandem. To wit: “Restoring price stability will take some time and requires using our tools forcefully to bring...

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Small Business Sales And The Running Of The Bull

Small business sales are the lifeblood of the economy. We have written previously about the importance of small businesses relating to employment, incomes, economic growth, and even the stock market. April 2020 – Previous Recession Warnings Now A Reality January 2021...

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The Rule Of 20 & Why The Bear Market Remains

The “Rule Of 20” says the “bear market” may just be resting despite much commentary to the contrary. In a recent Investing.com article, Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian warned clients that stocks are still expensive despite this year’s drawdown. “Our...

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Your Inflation May Vary

People who think about the economy are a non-random subset of the population. Most folks aren’t like us. Worse, we aren’t always like us. Hence the endless arguments. Currently our subset is debating whether we face inflation or recession. In my view, it’s...

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The Bear Market Is Over. Or, Is It Just Hibernating?

The bear market is over. While that statement fills the mainstream media, it remains a hotly debated question in every media forum. It is an interesting point considering that it was just in June we were answering the question of “when will this bear market end?”...

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FOMC Minutes Excites The Bulls

Market Really Overbought For Now Over the last 10 weeks, the market staged an impressive rebound from the June lows, increasing nearly 17%. That rise also reversed the vast majority of the previous “extreme bearish” sentiment as “Reddit...

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Muddling Through Stagflation

This week I am at the Cleveland Clinic going through numerous tests. Some have not been good news. It seems lifestyle changes are needed so I can keep writing and working for many more years. I am ecstatic to bring you David Bahnsen as a special guest writer. He is on...

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Paul Volker And 1982. Why Now Isn’t Then.

Jerome Powell isn’t Paul Volker, and this isn’t 1982. As of late, market analysts are stumbling all over themselves, trying to outdo each other on the “why this time is different” related to the Federal Reserve’s ongoing inflation fight. One of the more interesting...

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Economic Slowdown Now, Recession Coming In 2023

Economic slowdown but no recession! That message comes from the latest employment report, service sector data, and Federal Reserve. “We’re not in a recession right now. We do have these two-quarters of negative GDP growth. To some extent, a recession is in the eyes of...

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Long Term Returns Are Unsustainable

Long-term returns are unsustainable. I realize that is a bold statement that flies in the face of mainstream analysis. How often have you seen the following chart presented by an advisor suggesting if you had invested 120 years ago, you would have obtained a 10%...

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Curving Toward Stagflation

The latest data shows inflation is still with us at an 8.5% annual rate. That means we can expect the Fed to keep tightening, trying to reduce demand and relieve pressure on consumer prices. At the same time, we’ve seen declining GDP growth the last two quarters. Some...

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Pulling Forward Growth No Longer An Option.

Pulling forward growth over the last decade remains the Federal Reserve’s primary tool for keeping financial markets stable while economic growth rates and inflation remained weak. From repeated rounds of monetary and fiscal interventions, asset markets surged,...

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Market Surges As New Bull Market Begins?

Following the recent Fed rate hikes and some “better than expected” economic data, the market surged this week. The rally is not surprising given the extremely negative sentiment and positioning in the markets in June. As we noted then, such extreme negative...

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Weirdness Factors

It’s a recession! No, not yet! I see these arguments everywhere and I’m already tired of them. For those who believe it is not yet a recession, I will make a deal with you. The third quarter is likely to be negative. When we have three quarters of a recession in a...

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Investing Lesson Of Math Learned The Hard Way

Every investor must learn the one investing lesson in surviving the long game: how math works. I recently received an email from a reader suggesting that the 2022 decline in the market is “no big deal” because of the stellar returns over the last decade. He quoted a...

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A Weird Recession

Professional economists, perhaps tired of being asked, years ago formed a committee to officially mark the beginning and end of recessions, the NBER (Nation Bureau of Economic Research) committee considers a variety of data, but its final decision is subjective. Many...

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Hubris at the Fed

Finding just the right word brings great pleasure to writers like me. As I think and write about the Federal Reserve, the word “hubris” keeps coming to mind. The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines hubris as “exaggerated pride or self-confidence.”...

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ESG Underperformance Will Be Its Undoing

ESG underperformance will be the strategy’s eventual undoing. We have discussed the many problems with ESG investing in previous posts. The Great Wall Street Money Heist Wall Street Wins Again As ESG Infiltrates Retirement Plans In those previous articles, we...

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Market Risk Remains As Earnings Season Begins

Administrator Note As noted last week, my family and I traveled to Maiori, Italy, to visit our son, who lives in Germany. It was a great trip, and I look forward to sharing some stories on the “Real Investment Show” next week. I am just returning home to get...

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Forgotten Lessons

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it” is a well-known quote that’s also incomplete. You can remember the past vividly and still have to repeat it. This happens when, for instance, powerful people forget (or ignore) important lessons that...

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The “Bullwhip Effect” Will Frustrate The Fed

The “Bullwhip Effect Originally Published At The Epoch Times The “Bullwhip Effect” has gotten the media’s attention as of late. However, the causes, effects, and consequences to the market and monetary policy are not well discussed. In order to understand its impact...

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Earnings At Risk

Administrator Note The family and I are on vacation this week to visit our son who lives in Germany. Due to the Covid pandemic lockdowns and restrictions, we have been unable to see him for almost 2-years. So, we organized a quick trip to meet up in Maiori, Italy for...

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John Bull and Two Percent

The economics profession has long had a vigorous academic argument over “natural” interest rates. What would rates be if we could somehow remove all the subjective actors—central banks, commercial lenders, government agencies—that conspire to set them? What would...

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Payment For Order Flow & The SEC’s Plan To End It

“Payment For Order Flow” remains a contention between retail investors and Wall Street. On the one hand, it creates the ability to have “free trading” for retail investors. However, it also creates an opportunity for Wall Street to “front-run” individuals for profit....

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Time Has a Price

One benefit of human progress is the way we gain “common knowledge” that was once anything but common. We observe basic facts—for example, water boils if placed over a flame—and then build on them. Boiling water took us to steam engines and then much more. But that...

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Recession Risks. Are They Already Priced In?

Are recession risks fully “priced in” by the markets? Such was an interesting question asked recently by my colleague Albert Edwards at Societe Generale. To wit: “A US recession looks imminent and the discussion in the markets has moved on to how deep it will be....

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Earnings Recession Coming As Fed Hikes Rates

Earnings Recession Coming Was Originally Published At MarketWatch An earnings recession is coming as the Fed hikes rates which accelerates an economic recession. Such should be no surprise given earnings are derived from economic activity. However, despite economic...

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Recession Signs Increase As Fed Dismisses Risk

Market Review & Update Last week, we noted that previous support levels failed to hold as markets tumbled to new lows for the year. However, we also discussed the more extreme oversold conditions present on many levels, which suggested the potential for a rally...

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Inflation Reaches Unicorns

“Government has three primary functions. It should provide for military defense of the nation. It should enforce contracts between individuals. It should protect citizens from crimes against themselves or their property. When government—in pursuit of good...

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Fed Bluffs And Wall Street Calls

Down Again, Another Tough Week As we noted in last week’s update: “Our concern was that the longer the market remained in a tight trading range, the risk of a failed rally increased. While there was certainly room for the market to break to the upside, the multiple...

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Gradually Worse

This time last year, the great debate was whether inflation would be “transitory.” That question is now settled (Narrator: “It wasn’t transitory at all.”), we have moved on to debating what the Federal Reserve will do about it… and can do about it. The experts at the...

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Rally Fails As Recession Risks Rise

Rally Fails Last week, we discussed how the reflexive rally that started mid-May ran into resistance at the first levels from the recent low. To wit: “While the market did clear the 20-dma, the “trapped longs” headed to the exits at the initial 38.2% Fibonacci...

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A Trillion Here, a Trillion There…

Complaining about federal debt is a time-honored American tradition. Remember Ross Perot and his hockey-stick charts? Then there was Harry Figgie’s 1992 best-selling book, Bankruptcy 1995. It was quite a sensation at the time. Not only did the US government not go...

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Technical Review Of The Market. Where To Next?

Market Fails At First Resistance As discussed last week, a rally finally took hold as investors found reasons to be bullish. That rally pushed the market above the 20-dma and triggered a reasonably strong “buy” signal. However, despite the optimism of the bulls, we...

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No Soft Landings

“There’s no soft landing when you’re this far out of equilibrium.” —Tom Hoenig My last four letters featured highlights from the Strategic Investment Conference. I told you they would build toward a conclusion that might not be obvious. Today we’ll lift that final...

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Fed Pause? Markets Hope So, But Likely Not Yet.

Will the Fed pause its rate hikes as markets correct? That is the question that everyone is trying to answer. Of course, after more than a decade of monetary interventions, investors have developed a “Pavlovian” response to market declines and the “Fed Put.” Classical...

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Reasons To Be Bullish. Are There Any?

Market Finally Rallies Over the last few weeks, we have been a bit of a broken record suggesting a counter-trend rally was likely. However, that rally remained very elusive. Finally, a rally took hold this week, as investors found reasons to be bullish pushing the...

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Rock and a Hard Place

Two weeks after SIC ended, I’m beginning to assimilate everything. Different pieces are connecting in my head. I’d like to tell you I have a vision for uninterrupted peace and prosperity. Sadly, that’s not the case. Good things are coming, but not just yet. For now,...

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A “Lost Decade” Ahead For Markets?

Is a “lost decade” ahead for markets? We and many others have discussed a topic regarding financial market valuations and forward returns. Now, halfway into 2022, all of a sudden, the “crazy talk” of valuations seems a lot less crazy as bear markets growl. However, it...

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Recession Coming? Market Says It May Be Here.

Market Review & Update The market rally we hoped for ended abruptly as retail reports showed a recession is coming. However, since the stock market leads the economy, a recession could already be here. A review of the current market and 2008 is helpful. I am not...

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Hardening of the Economies

Atherosclerosis, or hardening of the arteries, occurs when substances like cholesterol accumulate and impede your blood flow. This keeps your body from delivering nutrients where needed. Left untreated, it usually doesn’t end well. Something similar is happening to...

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The Disinflationary Impact Of Fed Policy On Equities

The disinflationary impact of Fed policy on equities is coming. There is currently much debate in the mainstream media suggesting investors should ignore Fed rate hikes. To wit: History suggests U.S. stocks are poised to experience more volatility following the rise...

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Inflation Peaks. Will Markets Finally Stabilize?

Market Review & Update On Wednesday, Emily McCormick from Yahoo wrote a great piece encapsulating current market conditions: “As volatility grips markets, investors are naturally wondering when the selling will abate and the bottom will be put in. ‌According to a...

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A Little Harder

The Strategic Investment Conference wrapped up this week with another wave of strong, fascinating speakers and panels. I gave you some highlights in last week’s Soft Now, Hard Later letter. Today I have more to share and, as you’ll see, the plot thickened...

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Soft Now, Hard Later

The Strategic Investment Conference is in full swing. This is our 18th consecutive year and the third in an all-online virtual format. In 2020 we had to make that transition quickly, yet somehow the team pulled it off. Now we are getting the hang of it—though I do...

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Investor Sentiment Is So Bearish – It’s Bullish

Investor sentiment has become so bearish that it’s bullish. One of the hardest things to do is go “against” the prevailing bias regarding investing. Such is known as contrarian investing. One of the most famous contrarian investors is Howard Marks, who once stated:...

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Stock Market Rollercoaster Nauseates Investors

Stock Market Rollercoaster I can almost repeat last week’s opening note: “Another tough week, and month, for the market. Ongoing concerns about inflation, earnings, and economic growth, continue to pressure stocks. As noted last week, there is a tremendous amount of...

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Recession Warning? GDP Goes Negative In Q1

Market Review & Update Another tough week, and month, for the market. Ongoing concerns about inflation, earnings, and economic growth, continue to pressure stocks. As noted last week, there is a tremendous amount of damage in the market below the surface of the...

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The Fed Is NGMI

We found out this week that the first quarter was recessionary: GDP down 1.4% when the expectation was that the quarter would be up 1%. Rather large miss! Even so, the quarter-over-quarter comparisons were difficult so I believe the Fed will look past it and a...

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Bull Market In Bonds Set To Return With A Vengeance

A bull market in bonds is set to return with a vengeance as the Fed once again makes a policy mistake. I recently discussed the surge in bond yields noting that such events have previously led to more unwelcome market and economic outcomes. “As shown below, the surge...

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Into the Fire

If you haven’t noticed—perhaps because you live on Mars—inflation is here. Not just in the US but almost everywhere. Prices for everyday goods and services, including necessities like food, are climbing rapidly. The US Consumer Price Index rose 8.5% in the 12 months...

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Did We Go Through A Major Bear Market?

Market Review & Update The market started the week out okay but finished sour as Jerome Powell ramped up his hawkish rhetoric of a .50% rate hike at the May FOMC meeting. That meeting will also contain details on the timing of the reduction in the Fed’s balance...

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Is A Bear Market Lurking?

Is there a bear market lurking in the shadows? Such seems to be the question everyone is asking me as of late. Over the last couple of weeks, we have reviewed the bullish and bearish cases for the market. Sentiment Is So Bearish. It’s Bullish Bullish Or Bearish? Where...

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Market Oversold As “Sell In May” Approaches

Market Review & Update Given this is Easter Weekend, we are just providing a short-market update on our market thoughts as we begin the wrap-up of the seasonally strong period of the year. On Thursday, markets sold off, reversing the previous day’s gains as April...

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More on the Yield Curve and Helping Ukraine

It’s Easter weekend, so we are going to revisit a 2018 letter about the yield curve. The yield curve is much misunderstood and misused by many analysts. This letter will give you the tools to understand the correct importance and relevance of the yield curve. And...

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Still A Bear Market Rally? Or, Is The Bull Back?

Is it still a “bear market rally?” After a big surge from the lows following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley thinks so. To wit: “The first quarter was one of the worst on record for the collective performance of stocks and bonds, with...

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Sentiment Is So Bearish, It’s Getting Bullish

Market Review & Update We provide a daily trading update in our Daily Market Commentary (free pre-market email). During the past week, the message was consistent. “The continued sloppy action over the last week is doing its job of working off the overbought...

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Other Possibilities

An old Danish proverb, later attributed to everyone from Mark Twain to Nostradamus to Yogi Berra, says, “Predictions are difficult, especially about the future.” I would refine it a little: Predictions are actually pretty easy. Accurate predictions are very difficult....

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Bullish Or Bearish: Where Are We Now?

Bullish or bearish? What is the case for the market now? As we noted previously, having a proper market perspective is essential in avoiding investing mistakes over time. However, another trap we potentially fall into is “confirmation bias,” “Experts in the field...

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“Window Dressing” Keeps The Bulls Alive

Market Review & Update We noted last weekthat while the market was short-term overbought, the market could rally further. To wit: “As we head into the end of the month, a further push to the upside is not out of the question as mutual funds, pensions, and...

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Curve Ball

“I would not interpret the currently very flat yield curve as indicating a significant economic slowdown to come.” (and subprime is contained.) —Ben Bernanke, March 2006 Evidence continues to mount that a recession is coming soon. The latest was this week’s “inverted...

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Bear Squeeze? Or, Return Of The Bull?

“Bear squeeze,” or has the bull market returned? Over the last few weeks, that remains the question as the market rocketed off its lows, eclipsing both the 50- and 200-day moving averages. But is it safe to chase the markets higher? As we discussed recently, the best...

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Inverted Yield Curve History Should Worry Bulls

Stocks Rally As Fed Hikes Rates Last week, we discussed the difference a week can make. “We previously stated that any rally above the downtrend would test the 50- and 200-dma averages. That test occurred on Friday, with the index clearing the 50- and...

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Things Are Getting Better

In these letters, I look at the economy and tell you what I think, for better or worse. Recent missives were mostly negative. I regret being the bearer of bad news but sometimes that’s just reality. I often say that I am the most optimistic man in the room, and it’s...

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UPPR; Biggest Loser to Biggest Winner?

The very first stock which was recommended on ShinyPennyStocks.com was Upper Street Marketing (UPPR) in March of 2019 at a price limit of $0.50.  Due to the share price increasing rapidly the limit was raised to $0.85 and then to $1.00.  Then the bottom fell out after...

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“BTFD” or “STFR” – Which Is It?

“BTFD” (Buy The F***ing Dip) or “STFR” (Sell The F***ing Rally) – which should investors do now? With the Fed now hiking rates, seemingly intent on doing so at every meeting in 2022, has the correction priced in the “bad news?” The issue, of course, is that we never...

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Rate Hike Starts Countdown To Next Recession

Stocks Rally As Fed Hikes Rates What a difference a week can make. As discussed last week, the market slid and broke support as the Russia/Ukraine conflict continued. However, this week was very different as the FOMC meeting went off largely as expected. The...

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Brace for (Recession) Impact

The Strange Recession we are now entering is strange for another reason beside those I described last week. The last “normal” recession ended in 2009, almost 13 years ago. As with most unpleasant experiences, we don’t put a lot of energy into remembering what it was...

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Market Perspective Is Important To Avoid Mistakes

Market perspective is essential in avoiding investing mistakes. With CNBC airing “Markets In Turmoil” every time the market dips, it’s no wonder investor sentiment is now the lowest we have seen financial crisis lows. Of course, as shown, extremely negative investor...

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Bear Market Phases Are Like “The Revenant”

Market Review – Stocks Break Support As has been the case all year, market volatility remained constant this past week. Stocks surged early in the week on hopes of talks between Russia and Ukraine, but hopes faded into Friday. Notably, the S&P 500...

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Another Strange Recession

Back in the good old days, recessions were simply the unpleasant part of the business cycle. Consumer choices, exuberant businesses, and monetary policy would periodically generate growth contractions. We debated the timing, but recessions didn’t come out of the blue....

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An Earnings Reversion Is Coming

An earnings reversion is coming. In “earnings estimates will disappoint,” we showed the extreme bullishness of estimates entering 2022. “Despite economic growth weakening as inflation increases, liquidity reducing, and profit margins under pressure, analysts continue...

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Commodity Surge Is A Bearish Indicator

Market Review – Stocks Struggle As Russia Advances Friday morning, stocks sank back to previous support on news Russia had taken Ukraine’s nuclear power facility. It is not surprising with the ongoing Russia conflict; no one wants to hold equities over the weekend if...

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Change Squared

“How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” - Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises Change usually comes slowly. But every now and then, events like Pearl Harbor, September 11th, and COVID-19 come out of nowhere and change everything. We can look at...

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Sell Energy Stocks? The Time May Be Approaching

“Sell Energy Stocks” Was Originally Published At Marketwatch.com Sell energy stocks? Such certainly seems counter-intuitive advice given high oil prices, geopolitical stress, and surging inflation. However, some issues suggest this could indeed be the time to “sell...

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Russia Invasion Sends Stocks Rallying?

Russia Invasion Sends Stocks Rallying? Thursday morning stocks plunged pre-open on news of the Russia invasion of Ukraine. However, as we wrote in our PRE-MARKET commentary (subscribe for email delivery): “However, as I noted on Twitter recently that the...

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The Three-Act Recovery, Plus Your Questions

This week’s news is seemingly all about Ukraine and Russia. It is a terrible situation. But as an economic matter, we still have serious economic challenges no matter how it develops. I’ll have some thoughts on the Ukraine effects at the end of this letter. First I...

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The Fed Put? What And Where Is It,

The “Fed put?” Exactly, what is it, and where does this mythical support reside? It isn’t surprising with the rough start to 2022, investors are hoping the Fed will look to stabilize financial markets. Of course, after more than a decade of monetary interventions,...

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Buy Bonds? Yes, And Why You Should Too

From Russia With Love “When is the selling going to stop?” That was the most common question I received this past week. However, it is an interesting one given that people never ask, “when is the BUYING going to stop?” The importance of the question drives to the...

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Inflation Thoughts

But mouse-friend, you are not alone In proving foresight may be vain: The best-laid schemes of Mice and Men Go oft awry, And leave us only grief and pain, For promised joy! How much inflation is okay? People have different answers. I think it should be very low, but...

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Market Pullback Or Bear Market?

Market pullback or bear market? Such seems to be the question on everyone’s mind as of late, given the rough start to 2022 so far. There are undoubtedly many issues confronting even the most optimistic of investors currently. Geopolitical risk from Russia and the...

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Peak Inflation? Is The Fed Is Behind The Curve?

Market Review & Update Another nauseating week in the market as a hotter than expected inflation print and rumors of a Russian invasion of Ukraine sent stocks tumbling backward. The bad news is that support at the 200-dma failed. That break aligned with our...

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Financialized Everything

Interest rates—the “price of money”—have been unusually low for most of this century, particularly since the 2008 crisis but going back to Greenspan’s era. The wisest people I know differ on exactly why. Was it purely a policy choice, or the result of larger,...

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A 50-Percent Decline Will Only Be A Correction

A 50-percent decline will only be a correction and not a bear market. I know. Right now, you are thinking, how could anyone suggest a 50-percent decline in the market is NOT a bear market. Logically you are correct. However, technically, we need an essential...

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“One And Done?” Is The Fed Trapped At Zero

Market Review & Update Between Paypal, Facebook, and Netflix, the volatility swings in the market over the last couple of weeks were nothing short of nauseating. As we discussed last week: “The markets do look to be stabilizing, as shown below, and are holding the...

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Time to Rethink the Fed

“In many important ways, the financial crash of 2008 had never ended. It was a long crash that crippled the economy for years. The problems that caused it went almost entirely unsolved. And this financial crash was compounded by a long crash in the strength of...

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Statements made by Michael Markowski and Profitfromthecrash.com  pertaining to returns made from investing in Airbnb, UBER and Snapchat are not indicative of a TRACK RECORD. They are examples for educational purposes only.