Record Low Unemployment Benefits Signal For Great March Jobs Report
The big story in economic developments for the US is the latest report on initial unemployment filings. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to their lowest level 49 years, since the week ended December 6th 1969. This is a...
read morePassage of Farm Bill Doubled projected size of US Cannabis industry Overnight
The 2018 Farm Bill which was signed by President Trump on December 20, 2018, will double the projected size of the cannabis industry from $20 billion to $40 billion by 2022. The federal legalization of hemp and CBD in the United States has created an...
read more“Wealth Sharing” financing strategy was key to UBER’s success
The three leading US based sharing economy companies are anticipated to launch their IPOs during 2019. Lyft in being the first to file its IPO registration statement last week will likely be the first to launch an IPO even though it was founded after UBER...
read moreBrexit is likely to happen, but at what cost.
Brexit is still on course, but it is far from clear that it will actually happen. What could stop Brexit from happening is unclear. The Brexit day is now a mere 45 days off. In the meantime, PM Theresa May and her conservatives keep moving in circles with nothing...
read moreAsset Bubbles Are Making Davos Billionaires Richer
The global elite are meeting in Davos, Switzerland this week and are richer than ever. Bloomberg reports – A decade after the financial crisis poured…
read moreThe Economy IS Slowing
The problem when it comes to blindly investing in markets without a thorough understanding of underlying dynamics is much the same as playing “leapfrog with a…
read moreWhat is next in the Brexit battle?
Apparently there are several options. The most obvious and easiest is for the UK to reverse its position on Article 50 of the EU charter and simply end the whole Brexit effort. That would mean that the whole exercise ends immediately. The other options will take more...
read moreTechnically Speaking: Bull Or Bear? Comparing Views
As the trumpets sound to signal the start of earnings season, the battle between fundamentals and “hope” begins. While earnings expectations have weakened markedly in recent months,…
read moreUnderstanding Market Cycles
I was digging through some old charts over the weekend and stumbled across this gem from AlphaTrends which explains the “best time to buy stocks.” “Is it…
read moreRetail slump is pointing to a recession is on its way
The possibility of a deep recession in the US in the months ahead is now almost a foregone conclusion. In the US retail establishments in the post-Christmas period are struggling to keep their doors open. Indeed several major retailers, including Sears (which is in...
read moreDoes $97,000 Matter To You?
With the year 2018 in the books, we know the S&P 500, including dividends, has produced a meager 4.86% annualized return from the year 2000. That…
read moreAre We In A Secular Bull Market?
Just recently, Jeff Saut from Raymond James made a very interesting statement with respect to the recent market decline. “Speaking to last week’s Dow Theory sell…
read moreThe Market Is Still In A Confirmed Downtrend
The U.S. stock market surged on Friday after a strong jobs report and dovish comments from Fed chair Jerome Powell. The Dow jumped 764.94 points…
read moreThe Problem With Wall Street’s Forecasts
The problem when it comes to blindly investing in markets without a thorough understanding of underlying dynamics is much the same as playing “leapfrog with a…
read moreBear Market Awareness Checklist
Bear markets characteristically align with economic contraction. In his seminal tome – “Anatomy of the Bear – Lessons from Wall Street’s Four Great Bottoms,” which…
read moreSpooked By Apple? Wait ‘Til China’s Bubble Bursts
Apple stock plunged nearly 10% on Thursday after the company cut its revenue forecast due to slowing iPhone sales in China. Apple’s woes dragged U.S.…
read moreThe Biggest Threat To The Market – Loss Of Confidence
Yesterday, saw a record surge in the markets. Such was not surprising given the extreme oversold condition in the market. More importantly, throughout market history, the…
read moreBears Getting Bullish On Boxing Day
On the day after Christmas when investors were sad with the coal they found in their stockings, Santa provided some Boxing Day cheer. The S&P…
read moreWaning Consumer confidence and weakening global economic data does not bode well for 2019
What is coming our way in 2019? A significant recession is very much in the cards. Important economic indicators are pointing in that direction. The most recent release of consumer confidence by the Conference Board showed that American households expect a...
read moreKass: 10-Surprises Which Could Spike The Market 5% In One Day
“Look up and not down; look out and not in; look forward and not back, and lend a hand.” – Edward Everett Hale Make no mistake about…
read moreWith Record XMAS Eve Decline, Bear Market Now Official: Temporary bottom 10% lower
The S&P 500 officially entered into a bear market after a December 24th record decline of 2.7%. Prior to December 24, 2018, there had never been a prior Christmas Eve decline of even 1%. The decline of 15% for December puts the month on pace to...
read moreGundlach’s Remarks Mean It’s Time To Check Your Allocation
“This is a capital preservation market.” So says Jeffrey Gundlach who can’t argue with anyone who wants to invest in the 2-Year U.S. Treasury, currently…
read moreA Major Technical Breakdown Just Occurred In Stocks
The much-anticipated December Fed meeting has finally come and gone, and the stock market did not like what it heard. The Fed raised rates by…
read moreWhat You Need To Know About Bear Markets
The bullish pundits of the Twittersphere; the pros who never met a stock market they didn’t like, grow increasingly quiet at these times; or masterfully…
read moreYou Have A “Trading” Problem – 10 Steps To Fix It
In April of 2018, I wrote an article entitled “10-Reasons The Bull Market Ended In 2018” in which I concluded: “There is a reasonably high possibility,…
read moreHere Are The Key Levels To Watch In The S&P 500
With all of the incessant market gyrations this year, most traders and investors are going into the end of the year extremely confused. The simple…
read moreWhat Your Advisor Believes (And Why You Should Question It)
Chances are your financial advisor believes in two related intellectual theories that you should question them about. In a recent article, the excellent columnist Brett…
read moreTechnically Speaking: Has “BTFD” Become “STFR”
Kevin Wilson recently penned a piece for Seeking Alpha that made a great point about where the markets are currently. To wit: “Famous market observer…
read moreWeekend Reading: Did The Grinch Steal The Christmas Rally?
On Tuesday, we put on a small S&P 500 trading position for an oversold bounce. At first, it didn’t work and we were almost stopped out,…
read moreWhy Another 50% Correction Is Possible
All of sudden….volatility. Well, that is what it seems like anyway after several years of a steady grind higher in the markets. However, despite the…
read moreDecember 6, 2018: Final day in life of 2009 secular bull?
Thursday December 6th may have been the final day in the life of the secular bull market. Based on the S&P 500’s price and volume on the December 6th close and the December 7th open as depicted in the chart below it appears that the bull market which...
read moreTechnically Speaking: “Will Santa Visit Broad & Wall?”
In this past weekend’s missive, “Stuck In The Middle (Range) With You,” I discussed the view from John Murphy via Stockcharts.com that the S&P 500 may have more downside to…
read morePowerful year end Stock Market Rally coming based on market bottoming indicators
The S&P 500 rallied sharply yesterday on news that the Federal Reserve has become more dovish. However, the stock market was well positioned to begin a significant year-end rally anyway for these reasons: The S&P 500 successfully passed its retest of its...
read moreWhy Another Volatility Spike May Be Ahead
In early October, when the U.S. stock market had reached an all-time high and investor sentiment was extremely complacent, I published a warning in Forbes called “Why Another Market Volatility Surge Is Likely Ahead.” I showed three indicators that I believed pointed...
read moreBad News for US Economy Piling on
More bad news for the US economy and for much of the rest of the world is now occurring and much more frequently. A good indicator of things to come for the US economy is the housing market. The latest release of the NAHB Housing Market Index...
read moreWhich Smart Beta Was Smartest in October?
It’s no secret that October was a bad month for stocks. The S&P 500 Index dropped nearly 7%, including dividends. Granted, the index still had…
read moreWeekend Reading: Why This Isn’t “THE” Bear Market…Yet
After two significant corrections during 2018, this has to be the beginning of a “bear market,” right? It certainly is possible given the headwinds that…
read moreHow The Bubbles In Stocks And Corporate Bonds Will Burst
As someone who has been warning heavily about dangerous bubbles in U.S. corporate bonds and stocks, people often ask me how and when I foresee…
read moreBull & Bear Tracker Gorging on Market Volatility
Based on the Bull & Bear Tracker’s back tested results the algorithm has been gorging on market volatility. During the months of January, February, March and October of 2018, which featured some of the worst days for the stock market since the...
read moreThe Tailwinds To The Bull Market Have Shifted
In last Tuesday’s technical update, I discussed why a rally last week was highly probable from a psychological, technical, fundamental, and seasonal perspective. However, the…
read moreBull & Bear Tracker Now GREEN; Coast is Clear for foreseeable Future
Based on the Bull & Bear Tracker’s signal going to GREEN from RED before the market’s close on Friday November 2nd market volatility is likely to decline for the US midterm elections and the foreseeable future. Since there are typically...
read moreGDP and University of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey down slightly
Economic growth in the US is still good, but it has shown some deterioration of late. GDP growth in the third quarter of 2018 was up 3.5% q/q, off from the 4.2% advance recorded in Q2. The increase in real GDP reflected contributions from personal...
read moreAmazon and Google cast daggers into heart of Bull
After a relief rally for the major indices today the October crash will resume in full force tomorrow. Amazon and Alphabet both reported their third quarter earnings after the market’s close today. They both missed their estimates. Amazon reduced their...
read moreUS housing markets continue their decline
The housing market has deteriorated further in September. Sales of new single-family houses in the US fell 5.5% m/m to 553 thousand, following a downwardly revised 3.0% decline in August. It is the lowest rate since December 2016 and is worse than market...
read moreTariffs caused Crash of 1929 and will cause next Market Crash
October 23rd is the 89th anniversary for the 1st day of the Crash of 1929 The Smoot Hawley Tariff was the cause of the crash of 1929 which commenced 89 years ago on October 23, 1929. The legislative process that the Smoot-Hawley tariff underwent...
read moreMarket correction which began on October 10th is NOT over
The market correction which began on October 10 is far from over. The lifting of the restrictions for share buybacks by corporations who are reporting earnings for their fiscal periods ended September 30 will not matter. Two things happened during the...
read moreRemarkable predictions made by founder of BullsNBears’ in TV interview
Read SpotLight Television’s press release entitled “Visionary Market Analyst Michael Markowski Predicted the third largest drop in Dow history” about the founder and Director of Research of BullsNBears.com. Its reveals the details about the predictions for the...
read moreMore evidence of economic trouble ahead
The latest numbers on housing are further evidence of a weakening US economy in the months ahead. September existing home sales fell 3.4% following a 2% drop in August. The September sales number is the smallest since November 2015. Part of the problem with sales is...
read moreMore Stats Point to a Slowing US economy
More statistics pointing to a slowdown in the US economy: September housing starts in the US dropped 5.3% from a month earlier, after a 7.1% gain in August. Starts in the South declined due in part to Hurricane Florence. Building permits dipped 0.6% after a dramatic...
read moreSignal for Bull & Bear Tracker Now GREEN
The signal for the Bull & Bear Tracker has gone from RED to GREEN. The market crash that had been underway since October 10th has been abated. Those who participated in my strategy which I outlined in my October 5, 2018, article entitled “Perfect...
read moreVisionary Market Analyst Michael Markowski Predicted the Third-Largest Drop in Dow’s History
Click to read Press Release by Spotlight Television: Visionary Market Analyst Michael Markowski Predicted the Third-Largest Drop in Dow's History
read moreLet’s Be Like Japan
There has been a lot of angst lately over the rise in interest rates and the question of whether the government will be able to…
read moreTuesday’s Big upside move was a Sucker Rally
On Tuesday October 16th the S&P 500 rallied by 59 points and increased by 2.15% on the news that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley beat their third quarter earnings estimates. However, the advance was most likely a sucker rally. Tuesday’s volume of...
read moreRetail sales and US economy update
Activity in the domestic US economy during September was modestly positive as retail sales in September rose a mere 0.1% m/m and 4.7% y/y. This compares with a 0.1% monthly increase in August and a 6.5% year-on-year advance. These numbers are not surprising...
read morePerfect Storm for Market to Continue; Bull & Bear Tracker’s Crash signal up 14%
The perfect storm I predicted in my Friday, October 5th article entitled, “Perfect Storm Brewing for Possible Market Crash Next Week” which caused a decline of 4.1% for the S&P 500 last week is going to rage on until the end of October. The Bull &...
read moreVLOG: Why The Stock Market Is Heading For Disaster
In this presentation, Clarity Financial’s economic analyst Jesse Colombo explains why the U.S. stock market is experiencing a dangerous bubble that is going to burst…
read moreDay of Reckoning Approaching for Market
A day of reckoning is approaching for the US stock market. The market’s math simply does not add up. The math not adding up was why I recommended to all the readers of my September 2007, Equities Magazine column to get out of the five largest brokers...
read moreSignificant Correction and Bear Market predicted by Q1 by respected institutional analyst
On Friday October 5th, Bloomberg reported that Stifel Nicholas’ institutional equities strategist Barry Bannister predicted that the S&P 500 will be in a bear market by the end of the first quarter of 2019. Mr. Bannister in late January 2018, was the...
read morePerfect Storm Brewing for Possible Market Crash Next Week
Due to the stock market’s trading action for the first half of today, the probability has increased that the stock market could enter next week into a serious correction or even a crash. There are three reasons. Two of them are covered in my October 3rd...
read moreMarket Vulnerable due to Buyback Blackout; Bull & Bear Tracker signal now RED
The signal for the Bull & Bear Tracker is now RED. A market crash is now underway that will result in October being the worst month for the stock market during the Trump Presidency. According to a Wall Street Journal September 19, 2018, article...
read moreNobel Laureate Shiller says Current Market is Eerily similar to late 1920s
Robert Shiller, professor of economics at Yale University and a Nobel laureate, says the steep run-up in this market rally is similar to the excesses of the 1920s before the October 1929 market crash and Great Depression. Professor Shiller in his CNBC...
read moreFrenzied Market Blow Off Underway
A frenzied blow off for the stock market and especially the Dow Jones Industrial composite index is underway. Investors are selling everything that is not tied down to pour their money into the index which houses 30 of the world’s largest companies....
read moreThe Risk Of An ETF Driven Liquidity Crash
Last week, James Rickards posted an interesting article discussing the risk to the financial markets from the rise in passive indexing. To wit: “Free riding…
read moreCash Balances in Retail Brokerage Accounts at 14 year low
Cash Balances as a percentage of assets in Charles Schwab’s brokerage accounts fell to 10.4 percent as of the end of August 2018. This matched the level in January which been the lowest since 2004. The S&P 500 has increased for six consecutive months...
read moreTariffs showing up in consumer sentiment surveys
According to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index the US economy remains in good stead. The index in September topped 100, only the third time since 2004. Noteworthy is that the bottom third of households had an index of 96.3, the highest...
read moreWeekend Reading: Fiscal Irresponsibility
Without much fanfare or public discussion, Congress has decided to push the U.S. into deeper fiscal responsibility. Earlier this week, the House passed another Continuing…
read moreThe Two Biggest Threats To This Bull Market
This bull market seems unstoppable. Regardless of short-term events, investors have quickly looked beyond those risks to in a bid to push stock prices higher.…
read moreHow Brexit’s Issues could negatively impact US stocks
Brexit talks are not progressing well. At the Salzburg summit Prime Minister May was rudely rebuffed for her demands of a more rapid response to the UK’s proposals for post-Brexit arrangements. The PM did not help herself by being “difficult” with the EU...
read moreNY Post: “Next Crash will be Worse than the Great Depression: experts” is must read
The September 22, 2018, article entitled “Next Crash will be Worse than the Great Depression: experts” is a must read. The article contains predictions from Wall Streeter Peter Schiff who was unsuccessful in his bid to become a US Senator in 2010. Even...
read moreBulls Charge To All-Time Highs 09-21-18
Bulls Push To All-Time Highs Get out your party hats ladies and gentlemen, the markets hit all-time highs this past week. After increasing equity exposure in portfolios on the 11th, as the markets pulled back to the previous break-out support levels,...
read moreWhy Kavanaugh not being approved could negatively impact the market
The elimination of Brett Kavanaugh from consideration to become a justice on the US Supreme Court will negatively impact the market. Should this happen the Democratic party will become highly motivated to generate a huge turnout of Democrats for the...
read moreBrexit is approaching fast
The UK continues to struggle in its efforts to come up with the right Brexit formula for a deal with the EU as there are just 193 days left before the due date. Prime Minister Theresa May has signaled that she will be the difficult woman she advertised she will be in...
read moreEnron, Lehman, Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Shared Same Bankruptcy Trait
Enron, Lehman, Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Shared Same Bankruptcy Trait Today is the 10th anniversary of Lehman’s September 15, 2008 bankruptcy filing. Below are the anniversary dates for other four of US’s five largest...
read moreKass: The Bullish Bias Resounds
This morning the futures (S&P and Nasdaq) are, as is the custom, higher. The markets continue to ignore a number of cautionary signposts/macroeconomic events/concerns and…
read moreDark clouds forming on the horizon
Growth is strong worldwide but there are increasing signs of economic trouble ahead, most of it based on the Trump tariffs, which are about to kick in. Pushback has begun, but it is still modest. China has indicated it will introduce countervailing duties on a wide...
read moreGoldman Sachs’ Bear/Crash Indicator at highest level since 1969
An indicator that was developed by Goldman Sachs which measures future bear-market risk has risen to its highest level in 50 years. Goldman’s Bull/Bear Index, which is based on the metrics below is at its highest level since 1969. Equities valuations...
read moreBrexit, Potential Wild Card for Markets
There are only seven months left until the UK will leave the European Union. Prime Minister (“PM”) Theresa May has not yet found the formula she needs to take this step and internal negotiations remain in disarray. Right now, the UK will leave the EU without any...
read moreTake advantage of Overstock.com’s Share Price Weakness
Investors and traders should give serious consideration to take advantage of the weakness in Overstock.com’s share price which has been caused by short sellers. Overstock’s shares will soon resume the upward momentum that they had after the company made...
read moreDangerous Months of September & October Await Markets
After Labor Day the markets will enter the treacherous September/October time period. Since 1950, the month of September has produced a decline for all of the major indices. October is a month known for crashes. The reason why September has historically...
read moreWorld Economy Stalling
The economic numbers for the US remain positive, albeit they are weakening. The latest statistics are initial jobless claims for the week ending August 25 and personal income and spending for July. The jobless claims rose slightly for the week and the income/spending...
read moreRecent New all-time highs for Indices is Suspect
Two of the three major US indices including the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ closed at all-time new highs yesterday. However, the new all-time highs being an indicator that the 2009 secular bull is still alive and that the indices will continue on to newer...
read moreGDP growth for Q2 surprisingly strong. Will that be a trend for the rest of 2018?
Growth in the US remains strong. The second estimate for GDP growth in Q2 came in at 4.2%, up sharply from 2.2% in Q1. It was slightly higher than the initial reading of 4.1%. The result primarily reflects upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and...
read moreConfusing Economic Stats
The economic news these days is anything but clear and informative. It is mainly confusing and contradictory. The latest information on consumer confidence is both positive and negative with the Conference Board reporting the best numbers in almost 18 years. Meanwhile...
read moreDurable goods orders further confirmation of US economy slowing
Durable goods orders in July declined 1.7% from a month earlier, following a downwardly revised 0.7% advance in June and compared with market expectations of a 0.5% drop. Transportation equipment drove the decrease as volatile demand for civilian aircraft fell....
read moreHousing and Consumer Confidence both Weakening
According to today’s housing report from the US Commerce department new single-family home sales in July declined by 1.7% to the lowest level since October 2017. Sales in the South declined by 3.3%. Sales in...
read moreCrypto to benefit from three fiat currencies on the brink
The collapses of the currencies of three emerging markets countries justify the existence and the growth for cryptocurrencies. The currencies of Venezuela, Turkey and Argentina have been in the news lately for falling to new lows against the dollar and the other...
read moreConsumer Sentiment Declines for 4th consecutive month
According to the most recent August 2018, University of Michigan Survey, Consumer Sentiment declined to 95.3. The decline was the fourth consecutive monthly decline. In April of 2018, the index had reached and had peaked at 100.0 for the first...
read moreTurmoil in Turkey to Continue
The Turkish lira crisis is by no means over. Today, the lira at the start of the trading day plunged further and has recovered somewhat since then. The crisis will not be over until the government takes some drastic steps to curb inflation and President...
read moretZERO to Drive Overstock.com Shares Higher
Overstock.com’s share price has the potential to significantly outperform the market in the foreseeable future. Since it owns 80% of tZERO, Overstock.com shares are the only publicly traded “regulated” crypto infrastructure pure play for investors. ...
read moreOverstock.com shares to reach record high by end of 2018
Overstock.com’s share price has the potential to exceed its January 2018, all-time high of $84.35 by year-end 2018. Should that happen Overstock.com’s price would increase by 136%% from its most recent share price of $36. This prediction is not...
read moreMusk’s taking Tesla private Tweet is Kiss of Death
With his tweet about his taking Tesla private for $420 per share Tesla CEO Elon Musk may have unwittingly given Tesla his kiss of death. If Musk is serious about taking the company private it will soon lose its most valuable asset which is its loyal...
read moreHigher US rates a good possibility
The latest GDP growth number of 4.1% in Q2 could well be an anomaly, although quite a few bankers and analysts are pointing to continued fair-weather. The latest thing that investors should be concerned about is a comment by JPMorgan’s CEO Jamie Diamonds who...
read moreTesla’s Unproven Business Model is Next Big RISK
Last night (08/01/18) Tesla reported its financials for its quarter and six months ended June 30, 2018. Short sellers had been hoping that Tesla’s negative cash flow and cash position would come in below analyst’s expectations. That did not happen....
read moreState of the economy assessment
It is not entirely clear what President Trump wants to achieve with his various initiatives both domestically and internationally. It is clear that he wants to disentangle himself from the Muller investigations. It is not so clear what he...
read moreBull & Bear Tracker’s signal back to GREEN
The signal for the Bull & Bear Tracker is now GREEN. The signal had been RED since July 20, 2018. See Equities article “Signal for Bull & Bear Tracker has gone RED”. The signal switched from RED to GREEN due to the volatility between the US...
read moreCrypto Security Tokens of Overstock.com subsidiary, tZERO should be aggressively purchased NOW!
When the tZERO’s $250 million crypto security token offering closes on August 6, 2018, it will become the de facto leader of the global crypto infrastructure industry. The price of its tokens will multiply in 2019. The share price of Overstock.com (OSTK),...
read moreTech Stock Armageddon to Begin
Facebook shares plummeted by 23% in after-hours trading when the company reported its quarterly earnings and held its conference call after the market closed. The company’s revenue and active users came in below analyst estimates. The big miss is the...
read moreTough times ahead for the housing market
New single-family home sales in June declined 5.3% month to month vs. a 3.9% increase the month before. This is the lowest level since October 2017. The home sales numbers are in line with the general weakening in economic activity. The median...
read moreAnother Sign that US economy may be softening
The US economy is showing more signs of softening. The latest signal was the housing market which posted its third monthly existing home sales decline. On a monthly basis home sales in June declined 0.6% after declining 0.4% in May. Home sales fell to $5.38 million...
read moreSignal for Bull & Bear Tracker has gone RED
The signal for the Bull & Bear Tracker has gone to RED. The signal had been GREEN since June 1, 2018. See my article “Two signal changes for Bull & Bear Tracker since May 23rd”. The signal switched from GREEN to RED due to the volatility of the...
read moreWho is benefitting and who is losing from New Digital Sales Tax
Its been a month since the United States Supreme Court ruled to allow US States and municipalities to collect sales taxes from products and services that are purchased from online sellers. Over the last 20 trading days the shares of Wal-Mart increased by...
read moreConsumer Sentiment Survey Leading stock market and economic indicator
The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment survey which has been published since 1960 is a great barometer that can be utilized to predict recessions, economic recoveries and also secular bull and bear markets. As depicted by the chart below the...
read moreTweets by Lawyer Fighting Tesla Very Telling
On Friday July 13, 2018, Stuart Meissner, an attorney representing a Tesla whistle blower put out the following tweet about Tesla. When Mr. Meissner was asked as to whether he was short Tesla’s shares he stated that he did not but should based on what he...
read moreTesla China Announcement and Timing Suspect
Tesla’s share price increased by $4.00 and by approximately 1% on Tuesday July 10, 2018, after the company announced that it had entered into a memo of understanding with the Shanghai government to build a factory to produce 500,000 autos per year in China...
read moreMore signs of economic contraction everywhere
More signs of economic contraction are emerging daily. Today the German research firm ZEW (Center for Economic Research) announced that its index for investor’s confidence took a big hit. Investor expectations for Germany fell to minus 24.7 in July from...
read moreTrump faces a tough trip abroad
The week is starting off with difficult issues rearing their ugly heads. Just when President Donald Trump is starting his European trip, the UK, Trump’s first stop, is entering into a political crisis over Brexit. There is a good possibility...
read moreSupport for US Stock Market now on Quicksand
The foundational support for the US stock market is now quicksand. According to recently released data pertaining to shares and ETFs investor the churn rate for the markets has increased significantly. More than $2.9 trillion worth of the shares of the...
read moreUnscalable manufacturing process Revelation causes Tesla share sell off
Tesla shares traded as high as $361.50 on July 2, 2018. This was after its founder Elon Musk declared that Tesla was finally a “real car company”. The declaration was prompted by Tesla’s meeting its goal to produce 5,000 Model 3 sedans per week for the...
read moreOutlook for the US economy fraught with uncertainty now that tariffs are official
Friday July 6, 2018, was D-Day for the tariffs. They are now official. So far the US economy looks pretty good according to the June jobs report. Unemployment is at 4% (up slightly from the 3.8% level reached in May) and, importantly, the labor participation rate...
read moreTroubles percolating everywhere
There are several themes playing out in the international game of brinksmanship. There is the sad game of the English political establishment trying to come up with a Brexit plan that will be least painful. Unfortunately, that effort is certain to end in failure....
read moreAnother gauge predicting the market to go much lower
A high reading for the “Main Street Meter”, a stock market gauge that was developed by institutional investor James Paulsen of the Leuthold Group is indicating that the stock market will go much lower. Readings for the meter are calculated by dividing the...
read moreA major opportunity for Mexico to turn around its economy and its lawlessness
The landslide victory of Andrés Manuel López Obrador as Mexico’s new president is a big deal. He is an ardent leftist and a firebrand orator. His victory signals a shift in Mexico’s politics and signals a shift in global politics. It is a shift...
read moreGlobal equity funds suffered their second largest outflows ever this week
Fears of rising protectionism seem to weigh heavily on the markets. Not surprisingly Equity funds suffered their second-largest outflows ever in the week ended June 28, as reported by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. This underscored the week’s...
read moreBad timing for Walgreens Boots to Replace General Electric in DJIA
On Tuesday of this week General Electric, the oldest of the 30 members of the Dow Jones Industrial (DJIA) average was replaced by global drugstore chain Walgreens Boots Alliance. General Electric was one of the original dozen companies which comprised the...
read moreQ1 revision for GDP is disappointing and the outlook is murky
The Q1 GDP growth being revised from 2.9% to 2.0% is quite disappointing. Results are far from what has been promised by the president. With tariffs about to hit the economy, the outlook is anything but encouraging. In addition to the weak GDP...
read moreNew Digital Sales Tax driving markets lower and Wal-Mart higher
The more than 1.3% declines for the Dow 30 and the S&P 500 and the 2.0% decline of NASDAQ today were caused by last week’s digital sales tax ruling by the US Supreme Court. The mainstream financial media has blamed today’s decline on trade. Since the ruling the...
read moreEffect of SCOTUS Sales Tax Decision on Markets
The US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) ruled today that the State of South Dakota can apply their brick and mortar sales taxes to those businesses domiciled outside of the state who sell their products and services online to South Dakota’s residents. This is a significant...
read moreEmployment strong but what about the rest of US economy?
Despite all the disarray and the confusion in Washington about immigration, the employment statistics remain strong. Initial jobless claims in the week ending June 16 fell to their lowest levels since the early-1970. The unemployment rate when...
read moreWhat is the cost of winning a Trade War?
Last night President Trump announced that he was levying an additional $200 billion of tariffs and Chinese imports. The result was significant stock market declines throughout Asia and Europe. Several weeks ago, Mr. Trump said that winning a...
read moreSpeech given by FOMC member about US economy is telling
Bloomberg reported that the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s President Raphael Bostic who is also a member of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) has become less optimistic about the U.S. economy. This is due to concerns by the business...
read moreWhy has Stock Market Waited Until NOW to React to Tariffs?
The Dow 30 industrials and S&P 500 declined significantly when the US markets opened this morning. Stock market indices in Asia and Europe declined earlier today. The declines were from the anxiety which was caused due to the official start of the trade war...
read moreQuo vadis America?
The American economy went through almost ten years of a wrenching economic stagnation. At the start of 2018 it looked as though the American economy was finally expanding nicely and broadly. Then President Trump decided to throw a wrench into the global...
read moreIs a Potential Trump Recession in the Making?
Talk about an impending stock market crash and another deep recession is heating up. The latest is a comment by former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke who said that the time between now and 2020 is a crucial period for the markets to correct and for the US...
read moreStartEngine has emerged as Cryptocurrency Infrastructure First Mover
Based on a new development, I am reiterating my recommendation to purchase StartEngine’s shares. The shares were originally recommended in November of 2017. StartEngine’s shares should now be purchased aggressively for two reasons: Has emerged as a first mover...
read moreCrypto Desperately Needs Regulated Infrastructure Providers
The global cryptocurrency community is now in desperate need of regulated infrastructure. Cryptocurrency scams and illicit activities have provoked the ire of the world’s governments. The US’ Securities & Exchange Commission has recently become aggressive in...
read moreImpact that Upcoming G7 Meeting might have on the markets
The world’s key economies continue to perform quite well. This positive development, however, is probably being upended now. The shift is entirely due to the decision by President Trump to start a trade war on his own initiative. Trump is probably right...
read moreTwo signal changes for Bull & Bear Tracker since May 23rd
Prior to the market opening on June 1, 2018 the Bull & Bear Tracker’s went from RED to GREEN. The signal had been RED since May 23, 2018. See “Bull & Bear Tracker’s Signal has changed”. The signal switched from RED to GREEN due to the...
read moreTRADE WAR Seals Bull’s Fate
Today the Trump administration enacted steel and aluminum tariffs against a majority of the countries in the world including Mexico, Canada, Japan, China and the European Union. The 10% tariff on aluminum and 25% tariff on steel becomes effective at midnight on June...
read moreHome sales trends could eventually impact US economy and markets
The US economy is showing more signs of weakness. Nowhere is that more evident than in the real estate market. The sale of previously owned homes in April shrank 2.1% y/y, following a 2.8% drop in March. Sales declined every month so far this...
read moreItaly in the limelight.
New Parliamentary elections are likely to be called for late June early July. It remains to be seen whether the populist parties, the 5-Star movement and the League will retain their leads. They have created a great deal of confusion and...
read moreOminous signs for the markets emerge this week
It’s a very quiet pre-Memorial Day market and the key indexes are down slightly. The cause for the slide is lack of interest by market participants. The degree to which political considerations play a role in the markets is hard to gauge. The Trump-Kim back and forth...
read moreTurkey on the brink.
Volatility for the stock, bond and currency markets increased significantly today. The big story of the moment is the dramatic plunge of the Turkish lira against the US dollar. The currency at the close in Istanbul today fell to 10- year lows versus the US Dollar,...
read moreBull & Bear Tracker’s Signal has changed
The signal for the Bull & Bear Tracker is now RED. The signal had been GREEN since April 9, 2018. See Equities article “NIRP Crash Indicator Renamed “Bull & Bear Tracker”; Signal Now GREEN”. The signal switched from GREEN to RED due to the increase volatility...
read moreREALITY that interest rates going higher now setting in; Markets are being Negatively Impacted
The 10-year US Treasury note closed at 3.08%, its highest level since 2011 was the catalyst for today’s stock market sell-off. The strong close above 3.0%, the resistance level that the notes had been flirting with since April, is a clear signal that interest rates...
read moreThe US economy is slowing down
There is little doubt the US economy is slowing down. Will it slide into recession? Possibly yes, but not immediately. The fact that the yield on the 10-year note has risen decisively above 3% is a sign of tough times ahead for the US economy....
read morePotential Effect of Iranian Sanction on Markets and Economy
The decision by President Trump to exit the Iran nuclear deal originally brokered by President Obama is widely seen as a disastrous move. Its impact will surely be felt by the remaining participants in the arrangement, the UK, Germany, France and others....
read moreStock Trading Liquidity is Key for Small Cap Company Survival
For real estate, “location, location, location” is the KEY metric. For nano-cap and microcap companies, stock trading volume (liquidity) is the KEY metric. An earlier article noted that the lack of liquidity is one of four major stock market-related...
read moreShark Tank’s O’Leary reports from the Milken conference
Shark Tank shark Kevin O’Leary, an attendee at the Milken Institute’s conference in California this week provided a report to CNBC. The conference which is held annually is attended by politicians, the world’s captains of industry and most prestigious...
read moreUnique Challenges Facing Public Nano-Cap and Microcap Public Companies
An earlier article illuminated the trend that the number of public companies in the US is decreasing and the amount of capital raised in recent years through the public markets is 26% less than that raised through the private markets. Going public has...
read moreWill there be a “Mayday” on May Day?
The probability is 50/50 that the announcers on CNBC and Bloomberg will be shouting “mayday!” on May 1, 2018. The first day of May is also known as May Day. The potential for a “mayday” alert on May Day 2018, is because the stock market has the potential...
read moreHigher 10-year yields are leading the markets direction
Interest rates are going up, with treasuries leading the way. This week the 10-year Treasury bond has risen to over 3%, a milestone in the long road to recovery from the bottom of the crash. The US economy is strong enough to support such an advance, but...
read moreThe Decline of the US Public Company?
1st in a series discussing the decline of US public companies According to a 2017 Report by the Department of the Treasury, the number of domestic public companies in the US has declined by nearly 50% over the last two decades. This trend is 100% opposite...
read moreAmazon’s share price action a good bell weather for market sentiment
Amazon reported its best quarterly earnings in its history for its first quarter ended March 31, 2018. Its share price spiked to $1638 on its open and to an all-time intraday high. The share price trended lower throughout the day and closed at $1572...
read moreShare prices of three DJ members going over the cliff is 12th nail in Bull’s Coffin
The share prices of three members of the Dow Jones 30 composite, IBM, Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble performed cliff dives after announcing their first quarter 2018 earnings during the week ended April 20, 2018. Based on the performance...
read moreThe world economy is growing slowly but comfortably.
The world economy is showing modest signs of growth. Europe is finally coming out of its long slump as the ECB is considering ending its massive monthly money injections. The ECB’s president Mario Draghi has indicated that much recently. He...
read morePost earnings announcement share performance of key banks and brokers 11th nail in Bull’s Coffin
Since last Friday April 13th three of the USA’s largest banks including JP Morgan, Citigroup and Bank of America reported RECORD quarterly earnings. Separately, the USA’s two largest brokers reported their earnings for the first quarter of 2018. Morgan...
read moreDodd-Frank Has Killed Trading Liquidity for Emerging Companies
4th in a series explaining how DF crushed the ability of small cap companies to raise capital Previous articles appearing at http://microcapstrategies.com/2018/04/04/dodd-frank-negative-impact-on-company-capital-raising/ and...
read moreIs the US economy moving into slowdown territory?
It’s not so much “if” the US economy is slowing down but rather by “how much.” The mood in the country is getting decidedly bearish compared with the optimism seen at the start of this year. That negative attitude is very much expressed in the downturn of...
read moreThe Downward-Dodd-Death Spiral of Microcap Stocks
3rd in a series explaining how Dodd Frank crushed the ability of small cap companies to raise capital Previous articles, http://microcapstrategies.com/2018/04/04/dodd-frank-negative-impact-on-company-capital-raising/, have illuminated the following truths...
read moreNear Term Market Prognosis 04/13/18
By overcoming a flurry of negative news stories since the beginning of April 2018, the market is sending a message to investors that it clearly wants to move higher over the near term. The recent negative news stories that caused significant declines...
read moreThe Missing 5th Nail in 2009 Bull’s Coffin are International Trade Stalwarts Boeing and Caterpillar
The fifth nail which had been missing in the 2009 secular bull’s coffin has been found. It is Dow Jones 30 industrial composite stalwarts Boeing and Caterpillar. Since both of the companies generate more than 50% of their revenue from outside of the US...
read moreNIRP Crash Indicator renamed “Bull & Bear Tracker”, new signal issued
The NIRP Crash Indicator which was in service during 2016 has been pulled out of retirement. The signal is now GREEN which indicates that the S&P 500 at least for the short term will go higher. In my February article, I predicted that the highs for...
read moreChina’s Tariffs on US Products is 10th Nail in Secular Bull’s Coffin.
China announced that it will levy 25% tariffs on 106 products that are produced in the US including soybeans, automobiles, chemicals and aircraft. The news pretty much guarantees that the share prices of Caterpillar and Boeing which were down...
read moreDodd – Frank’s Negative Impact on Capital Raising of small public companies
2nd in a series explaining how DF crushed the ability of small cap companies to raise capital As illuminated in the chart below, Dodd-Frank crushed the valuations of start-up/emerging companies: Typical Sources of investment capital for start-up/emerging...
read moreTRUMP Sledge Hammering AMAZON Nail into 2009 Bull’s Coffin
Amazon (AMZN) is the ninth nail in the 2009’s Bull’s Coffin. Since last week President Trump with his tweets has been personally sledge hammering in the ninth nail. His relentless attacks will make it very difficult for Amazon shares to eclipse their...
read moreTesla is 8th Nail in Bull’s Coffin
Yesterday, Moody’s downgraded Tesla’s debt to B3 from B2. Moody’s also changed its outlook for Tesla to negative from stable. Because of the downgrade Tesla has been named the eighth nail in the 2009 Bull’s coffin. On yesterday’s news Tesla’s share price...
read moreIntense Volatility Seventh Nail in Bull’s Coffin
Another nail has been pounded in the coffin of the 2009 Bull Market. May the Bull rest in peace (RIP). Yesterday new Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave testimony to the US Senate’s banking committee. Based on his testimony the probability has...
read moreSixth Nail in Deceased Bull’s Coffin is Facebook
Facebook (FB) is the sixth nail in the 2009 Bull Market’s coffin. Its shares posted their steepest drop since 2015 as U.S. and European officials demanded answers to reports that it provided the data of millions of its users to political consulting firm...
read moreTariff Is 4th Nail in 2009 Bull’s Coffin; Trade Wars Do Not Go Well with Markets
Yesterday, US President Donald Trump announced that the US would impose a 25% tariff on those countries importing steel and a 10% tariff on aluminum into the US. The reaction by the leaders of foreign countries has been harsh. President Trump’s push back...
read moreA View of Stock Market’s Expanding BUBBLE
The chart below which depicts the stock market’s bubbles since 2007 is based on the price history of the S&P 500 versus long-term US government bonds for the period of 2003 through February 2018. The large bubble, which had been in place prior to the...
read moreAnother Nail Pounded into 2009 Bull’s Coffin
Another nail has been pounded in the coffin of the 2009 Bull Market. May the Bull rest in peace (RIP). Yesterday new Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave testimony to the US Senate’s banking committee. Based on his testimony the probability has...
read more$100 Digital Valentine’s Day Gifts with Exponential Growth Potential
Make this Valentine’s Day the most special to remember by giving your sweetheart shares in a digital startup. The shares can be purchased 24/7 by international investors with a VISA, MasterCard or bank debit card. In my December 21, 2017 equites.com...
read moreBULL DEAD, BEAR DOB 01/31/18: Expect Stock Market Decline of at Least 50%
The 2009 Bull that had a nine-year run died and the 2018 BEAR market was born on January 31, 2018. The market’s taking less than two weeks to decline by 8% from its all-time high that it made on January 26, 2018 and be at a loss of 1% for 2018 is a game...
read moreThe Perfect Gift; Give $100 Worth of Shares in the Next BIG Startup
Shares in two startups that are now available 24/7 for a minimum purchase of $100 with a VISA, Mastercard or bank debit card make a perfect gift for the holidays. There are two startups that I have identified which have the potential for $100 to grow to $1...
read moreBCHI: Digitally Disrupting $596 Billion Grocery Industry
BCHI which is an acronym for Buying Collective Holdings Inc., is a disruptor to the $596 billion US grocery industry. The company which delivers organic and non-GMO foods directly to the consumer at wholesale prices has zero marketing, advertising and...
read moreDodd Frank: Boon for Large Caps, Bust for Micro-caps
The passage and implementation of Dodd-Frank has had a profound impact on the markets for all US stocks. Under Dodd-Frank for the first time in the history of the US, a broker became criminally liable for recommending stocks which then decline...
read moreStartEngine’s New Secondary Market Extremely Disruptive to Capital Markets
StartEngine’s September 2017 launch of its StartEngine Secondary™ market for the shares of private companies which are valued for less than $1 billion has forever disrupted the capital markets. By the end of 2018, millions of investors will be pouring...
read moreShares of StartEngine Poised to Multiply in 2018
The launch of the StartEngine Secondary™ market for the shares of private companies valued for between a few million and a billion in October 2017 by StartEngine, a leading U.S. crowdfunding platform was a transformational event for the capital markets. To...
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Statements made by Michael Markowski and Profitfromthecrash.com pertaining to returns made from investing in Airbnb, UBER and Snapchat are not indicative of a TRACK RECORD. They are examples for educational purposes only.