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Presidential Elections And Market Corrections

Presidential elections and market corrections have a long history of companionship. Given the rampant rhetoric between the right and left, such is not surprising. Such is particularly the case over the last two Presidential elections, where polarizing candidates...

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Stablecoins and Crypto Shocks

In a previous post, we described the rapid growth of the stablecoin market over the past few years and then discussed the TerraUSD stablecoin run of May 2022. The TerraUSD run, however, is not the only episode of instability experienced by a stablecoin. Other...

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A Brief History of Secondary Stock Sales

FROM ONE-OFFS TO EMPLOYEE TENDER OFFERS In Silicon Valley, a tender offer that allows longtime employees at high-performing startups to get some liquidity is fast becoming an expected benefit. While secondary stock sales have always been possible, their popularity—and...

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When Readers Speak

Today, we have a different kind of letter. I’ve been in California for some rather innovative and hopefully life/health span-extending medical treatment. I’m fine, but it has been a bit tiring. So this week, I’m handing the keyboard to you, my intrepid and smart...

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U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) determines the economic health of the manufacturing sector in Chicago region. A reading above 50 indicates expansion of the manufacturing sector; a reading below indicates contraction. The Chicago PMI can be of some help in...

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This Is Nuts – An Entire Market Chasing One Stock

“When you sit down with your portfolio management team, and the first comment made is ‘this is nuts,’ it’s probably time to think about your overall portfolio risk. On Friday, that was how the investment committee both started and ended – ‘this is nuts.’” – January...

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The Good News/Bad News Economy

Recently I saw a T-shirt for sale that said, “Science Doesn’t Care What You Think.” I used a similar metaphor recently, observing how many experiments show that jumping off a cliff will send you rapidly downward. If you want to test that theory, please add me to your...

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Mortgage rates rise to 6.9% in third-straight increase

Mortgage rates climbed for the third week in a row, inching closer to 7%. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.90% in the week ending February 22, up from 6.77% the previous week, according to data from Freddie Mac released Thursday. A year ago, the average...

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Don’t Fear All-Time Highs, Understand Them

Don’t fear all-time highs in the market. Such is a natural response for investors who are concerned about market risk. However, rather than fearing market exuberance, we must understand what drives it. There is an essential concept investors should understand about...

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Choose Your Own Economy

If you’re a parent or grandparent, you may know of the “Choose Your Own Adventure” storybook series. Written in second person, they make “you” the hero. The reader makes choices as the story unfolds, leading to one of several possible endings. That format is...

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Divergences And Other Technical Warnings

While the bulls remain entirely in control of the market narrative, divergences and other technical warnings suggest becoming more cautious may be prudent. In January 2020, we discussed why we were taking profits and reducing risk in our portfolios. At the time, the...

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Mapping the US Regions With the Highest Inflation

Consumer-prices growth slowed in many US regions in January — although inflation isn’t coming down as fast as economists expected. Southern and Pacific states once again saw higher-than-average annual rates. East South Central — which includes Alabama, Kentucky,...

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Measuring Treasury Market Depth

A commonly used measure of market liquidity is market depth, which refers to the quantity of securities market participants are willing to buy or sell at particular prices. The market depth of U.S. Treasury securities, in particular, is assessed in many analyses of...

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Desperately Seeking Neutral

One of the more fascinating and mysterious parts of watching the Federal Reserve is the ongoing dialogue between Fed leaders and Wall Street. We imagine private meetings held in great secrecy. Those may in fact occur, but I’m not sure they are even necessary. The...

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S&P Index Set To Hit 5000 As Bull Run Continues

In September 2021, I discussed how the markets had set its sights on the S&P 500 index hitting 5000. To wit. “Yes, the rally off the COVID-19 bottom in March 2020 has been extraordinary, but we think there are further gains ahead. Solid economic and corporate...

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After Jamie Dimon warns of market ‘rebellion’ against $34 trillion national debt, Fed’s Jerome Powell says it’s past time for an ‘adult conversation’ about unsustainable fiscal policy

With the United States’ national debt closing in on $34.2 trillion, some of the biggest figures in the world of finance have been speaking out. But few expected Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to address the issue—at least until this weekend, when Powell spoke...

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Industrial Size Surplus

Modern economies, even small ones, are unfathomably complex. The number of variables is far more than any human can comprehend or any model can track. It’s really no wonder so many forecasts are wrong. In my 2024 forecast letter I predicted “A Muddle-Through Year.”...

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Central banks have been buying gold at a record pace

Bitcoin bulls want to know: If you can easily buy a commodity on the stock market, in ETF form, does that drive demand for the commodity itself? The answer, judging by the past three years in the world of gold ETFs, is a clear no. Why it matters: The run-up in the...

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“Theory Of Reflexivity” And Does It Matter?

I received an email this past week concerning George Soros’ “Theory Of Reflexivity.” “I am not a fan of Soros, but this market has the look and feel of the dot com bust of 2000. In a few short words, the AI investment phenomenon is feeding on itself just as the...

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Going Bang!

In thinking about the 2020s, I often find myself looking back to the 1920s. That decade began with a deep recession/depression and ended with a stock market crash. While we now see the 1920s as a kind of “in between” period, people at the time didn’t know another...

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Next China: Stock Market Meltdown

Stocks have become the topic to avoid at dinner tables in China these days. The new year has seen anxiety over China’s slowing economy flare spectacularly in its giant stock market, with Shanghai dethroned as Asia’s biggest equity market and Hong Kong, where I’m...

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Clashing Crises

“Two is better than one” is a nice saying, but it really depends on what you’re describing. Two hurricanes or earthquakes aren’t better than one. Just one disaster at a time will suffice, thank you very much. The same holds true for man-made crises like the debt...

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Statements made by Michael Markowski and Profitfromthecrash.com  pertaining to returns made from investing in Airbnb, UBER and Snapchat are not indicative of a TRACK RECORD. They are examples for educational purposes only.