Secular Bull & Bear Markets
Since inception the stock market has been in either a secular (long term) bull or a secular bear phase.
Markets become significantly overvalued in the late stages of a Secular Bull Market and significantly undervalued in the late stages of a secular bear market …
A secular market is a market driven by a macro trend which can remain in place for many years, resulting in the stock market going up or down for a long period of time. In a secular bull market low interest rates and strong corporate earnings push stocks prices higher. In a secular bear market slowing economic growth, declining corporate earnings and rising interest rates cause selling pressure which pushes stocks lower for an extended period. Cyclical bull or bear trends which have peak-to-troughs that are shorter in duration occur during secular bull and bear markets.
Most Recent Articles:
The disinflationary impact of Fed policy on equities is coming. There is currently much debate in the mainstream media suggesting investors should ignore Fed rate hikes. To wit: History suggests U.S. stocks are poised to experience more volatility following the rise...
Market Review & Update On Wednesday, Emily McCormick from Yahoo wrote a great piece encapsulating current market conditions: “As volatility grips markets, investors are naturally wondering when the selling will abate and the bottom will be put in. According to a...
The Strategic Investment Conference wrapped up this week with another wave of strong, fascinating speakers and panels. I gave you some highlights in last week’s Soft Now, Hard Later letter. Today I have more to share and, as you’ll see, the plot thickened...
The 5-minute video below answers these questions:
- Why since 1802, has the market rotated from secular bears to secular bulls, and back to secular bears eight times?
- Why there can be many cyclical bulls during one secular bear and vice versa?
- Years it takes for a new secular bull to exceed the highs of the prior secular bull
- Percentage decline ranges from a secular bull peak to low of subsequent secular bear
100 Years of Secular Bulls and Bears