Secular Bull & Bear Markets

Since inception the stock market has been in either a secular (long term) bull or a secular bear phase.
Markets become significantly overvalued in the late stages of a Secular Bull Market and significantly undervalued in the late stages of a secular bear market …

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A secular market is a market driven by a macro trend which can remain in place for many years, resulting in the stock market going up or down for a long period of time. In a secular bull market low interest rates and strong corporate earnings push stocks prices higher. In a secular bear market slowing economic growth, declining corporate earnings and rising interest rates cause selling pressure which pushes stocks lower for an extended period. Cyclical bull or bear trends which have peak-to-troughs that are shorter in duration occur during secular bull and bear markets.

Most Recent Articles:

Grantham: We’re In An Epic Bubble

Jeremy Grantham recently made headlines with his latest market outlook titled “Let The Wild Rumpus Begin.” The crux of the article gets summed up in the following paragraph. “All 2-sigma equity bubbles in developed countries have broken back to trend. But before they...

You’re probably using P/E ratios incorrectly

The most popular way to measure value in the stock market is to take the price and divide it by earnings. This is the price/earnings (P/E) ratio. When the P/E ratio is above average, stocks are arguably expensive. When it’s below average, stocks are arguably cheap....

Retail Investors Panic As Market Plunges

In this 01-21-22 issue of “Retail Investors Panic As Market Plunges.” Retail Investors Panic The “Value Trade” Isn’t Really A Value Portfolio Positioning Sector & Market Analysis Retail Investors Panic As Market Plunges Last week, we noted: Notably, despite the...

The 5-minute video below answers these questions:

  • Why since 1802, has the market rotated from secular bears to secular bulls, and back to secular bears eight times?
  • Why there can be many cyclical bulls during one secular bear and vice versa?
  • Years it takes for a new secular bull to exceed the highs of the prior secular bull
  • Percentage decline ranges from a secular bull peak to low of subsequent secular bear

100 Years of Secular Bulls and Bears