There are only seven months left until the UK will leave the European Union. Prime Minister (“PM”) Theresa May has not yet found the formula she needs to take this step and internal negotiations remain in disarray. Right now, the UK will leave the EU without any deal, on trade or otherwise. If that happens the outlook for the UK is not good. The rest of the EU can easily do without the input of the UK. For the UK Brexit is not only a difficult step it is also an expensive one since UK will have to pay huge sums for the divorce.
The Prime Minister would like to have a deal on trade and on financial transactions. She would like to see operations in London unaffected and that all banks doing business in the City to continue to do business as they have. Unfortunately, that is not likely to happen.
Unfortunately, PM May’s government is in total disarray, with important ministers having quit the cabinet in recent weeks. Foreign secretary Boris Johnson is the most prominent minister to leave the government. Others are sure to follow. If things get really bad, PM May could be forced to call another election, one that could be interpreted as being a second referendum on Brexit.
Next month the Conservative party will convene for its annual conference where the membership will be debating the party’s future. This could be the moment the party decides its final plans for Brexit and the future of the Prime Minister.
One big problem for the UK will be how to overcome the economic troubles it is facing. The problem is so big that the UK could easily slide into a deep recession, one that could affect economic relations well beyond its borders. The so-called special relationship that London has with Washington will not help.
Now that summer is officially over, we can look forward to all the problems afflicting Brexit to come into focus and impacting the geopolitical landscape.