Brexit is still on course, but it is far from clear that it will actually happen. What could stop Brexit from happening is unclear. The Brexit day is now a mere 45 days off. In the meantime, PM Theresa May and her conservatives keep moving in circles with nothing being accomplished. Indications are that another vote to move the process forward is in the offing. This time a positive outcome in Parliament for a deal with the EU is possible.

The big issue right now is that the UK economy is going south with a recession very much a possibility. The UK economy is the 5th largest in the world at $2.8 trillion (2018 results), followed by Germany, Japan, China and the US. The head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, said at a recent news conference that a recession is in the offing. Economic growth is already slowing, investment is declining exponentially and pay gains are shrinking. Once Brexit arrives the UK economy will face even stiffer challenges.   

The fact that economic activity is decelerating everywhere, especially in major economies like China and the US, is making the possibility of an economic downturn in the UK an even bigger risk.

Moreover, many UK companies are getting ready to move their operations to the continent or to Ireland. Some have already done so. Of particular concern is the potential of London losing its position as the predominant European banking center. So far, the big winners in this contest to move are Holland and Germany but France and Spain are contenders as well. The next few weeks will tell more.

One wild card in this whole mess is the possibility of another referendum. Both the conservatives and Labor are downplaying this possibility, but there is still an outside chance it will happen.