Will Brexit happen? Yes, it will. Perhaps not on October 31 as planned, but it will happen before the end of this year. The actual departure of the UK from the European Union is not the main issue, however. More important is the reaction by the financial community and the impact on the economy as a whole.
It is widely believed that the UK will sink into a deep recession if not a depression once the UK leaves the EU. The leave component of the British population is, of course, clueless as to what Brexit will do to them and their livelihoods.
In July, the unemployment rate stood at 3.8% after it hit 3.9% the month before. It is unlikely that the jobless number will stay at those encouraging levels. It could easily soar to 5% and more by the end of this year if Brexit were to happen just at around October 31. At this point there seems to stand nothing in the way of stopping Brexit from happening. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has staked his future as the country’s chief of government on the October 31 departure from the European Union. If Brexit does not happen then, Mr. Johnson will be out of his job and a general election will be called. It is entirely possible that an election will bring in Labor, which might mean another referendum, one that could overturn Brexit. But that eventuality is quite unlikely.
Meanwhile, The EU is not thrilled about Brexit, but so far has shown little appetited for proposing its own solution. Based on the latest news from 10 Downing Street, Boris Johnson sees no solution to the Brexit conundrum, but remains firmly committed on his Brexit plans, i.e. October 31 is the leave date.