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The SCPA algorithm is a significant breakthrough for all investors.  The potential for a market to crash, for a correction to become a crash, a crash’s intensity and post-crash events are now forecastable.  Instead of riding out crashes, as was similarly the case for hurricanes, investors now, and in the future, will know when to get out! 

The SCPA (statistical crash probability analysis) algorithm was developed in March 2020 from the findings of market crash expert Michael Markowski’s empirical research of all notable stock market crashes from 1901 through 2018.  The SCPA operates similarly to the algorithms which are used by meteorologists to forecast the intensity and the pathology for a hurricane.  The SCPA does the following:

  • Monitors a market’s initial corrections to determine which have the potential to become crashes
  • Measures crash intensity
  • Categorizes crashes by levels of intensity
  • After a crash has begun the SCPA forecasts the following:
    i) post initial correction highs
    ii) interim lows and highs on way to final bottom
    iii) percentage changes for interim declines
    iv) date range for final bottom
    v) percentage decline at bottom

The table below contains the SCPA’s initial forecasts that were made in March 2020.  All four of the precise forecasts were accurate.

Due to SCPA investors in the future will be able to distinguish a crash from a correction.  All corrections and crashes can now be measured and categorized.   See “Difference between market corrections and crashes”.    

Listed below are Mr. Markowski’s crash-related predictions published from 2007 to 2020: 

2007 prediction for collapses of Lehman, Merrill Lynch, and Bear Stearns, etc.
2015 crash bottom
2016 Brexit Crash 
2018 October and Q4 crash
2020 Coronavirus “global crash” 01/25/20
2020 “epic crash” 03/05/20 
2020 crash’s exact “interim bottom”  03/23/20

To receive SCPA crash and crash event forecasts click here.   

Click here for Mr. Markowski’s career highlights.
Click here for information about Mr. Markowski’s algorithms including the Bull & Bear Tracker.