- Ten-year Treasury yield slips to the lowest in over a week
- Investors look to manufacturing, jobs data to price Fed cuts
Treasuries rose, taking benchmark yields to the lowest levels in more than a week, after US manufacturing data reinforced bets the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once this year.
Longer-dated bonds led the market higher after the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey showed factory activity contracting and output weakening in the world’s largest economy last month. Yields on 30-year bonds dropped as much as 10 basis points to 4.546%, the lowest since May 23.
The bond market is “desperate for good news,” said Michael Kushma, Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s chief investment officer of global fixed income, on Bloomberg Television. “It wants a reason to rally, it seems.”
Markets have become highly sensitive to each data point as the Fed has indicated that the timing of rate cuts will depend on economic figures. That puts the spotlight on May payrolls due on Friday, ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting on June 12.
Overnight index swaps contracts tied to upcoming meetings continue to fully price in a quarter-point rate cut in December, with the odds of a move as soon as September edging up to around 50% and November also given high odds. Through year-end, the contracts imply a total of 36 basis points of rate reductions, up slightly from a week ago.
“Pricing for Fed rate cuts is continuing to take a modestly more constructive policy outlook,” said Richard McGuire, head of rates strategy at Rabobank, adding that this was helping Treasuries to extend gains from late last week.
US Treasuries posted a gain in May, their second of the year and the largest since December. That pushed the 10-year Treasury yield roughly 20 basis points lower last month on signs of a cooling job market and easing inflation pressures.
Written by: Naomi Tajitsu and Sydney Maki — With assistance from Carter Johnson @Bloomberg
The post “Traders Push Treasuries Higher as Data Reinforces Fed Cut Bets” first appeared on Bloomberg
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