The fifth nail which had been missing in the 2009 secular bull’s coffin has been found. It is Dow Jones 30 industrial composite stalwarts Boeing and Caterpillar. Since both of the companies generate more than 50% of their revenue from outside of the US they are both vulnerable to tariffs and trade wars. Given this it will be very difficult for the shares of either of them to eclipse their 2018 all-time highs for the foreseeable future. The one-year chart below illustrates that Boeing and Caterpillar had been outperforming the Dow 30 composite. Unless the two stalwarts can reach new share price highs it will be very difficult for the Dow 30 to reach a new high.
The 5th Nail which was preceded by all of the other nine nails had been missing from the 2009 Bull’s coffin. The nail further increases the probability that the market will not get back to its January 2018 all-time high for at least eight years and makes it more likely that the new secular bear market was born in January 2018. The video below provides details about the secular bull and secular bear markets that have occurred since 1802 and why they all of had minimum durations of eight years.
For those who want to remain in the markets until the significant correction begins or who wish to profit from trading the S&P 500’s triple leveraged short (SPXS) and long (SPXL) ETFs a subscription to the Bull & Bear Tracker is recommended. The Bull & Bear Tracker has a proprietary algorithm which tracks the market. For information about the Dollar/Yen which powers the Bull & Bear Tracker go to https://bullsnbears.com/yen-sp-500/. To subscribe go to www.bullbeartracker.com.
My crash research that I began to conduct in 2016, resulted in my developing an algorithm that I utilized to issue market crash warnings during 2016 when negative interest rates posed great risks to the global economy. See equities.com article “NIRP Crash Indicator Signals Very Reliable for 2016”. Due to the ebbing of negative rates in 2017, after Mr. Trump’s election as President and the unprecedented low stock market and especially currency volatility, the NIRP Crash Indicator was disengaged in March of 2017. See equities.com article “No Longer a Need for NIRP Crash Indicator Signals”. Upon currencies volatility picking up the NIRP Crash Indicator will be re-engaged.Its warnings will be available to Trophy Investing’s members.
Disclaimer.Mr. Markowski’s predictions are frequently ahead of the curve. The September 2007 predictionsthat appeared in his EquitiesMagazine.com column stated that share-price collapses of the five major brokers, including Lehman and Bear Stearns, were imminent. While accurate, they proved to be premature. For this reason he had to advise readers to get out a second time in his January 2008 column entitled “Brokerages and the Sub-Prime Crash”.His third and final warning to get out, and stay out, occurred in October of 2008 after Lehman had filed for bankruptcy. In that article “The Carnage for Financials Isn’t Over”he reiterated that share prices for Goldman and Morgan Stanley were too high. By the end of November 2008, the share prices of both had fallen by an additional 60% and 70%, respectively — new all-time lows.