Michael Markowski, the developer of algorithms that have forecasted the S&P 500’s significant crashes for over a decade, has updated his forecast for the S&P 500’s bottom.  His new forecast is for the S&P 500 to bottom at 1090.90.  At this bottom, which Mr. Markowski has forecasted to occur between the second half of 2023 and the first half of 2024, the S&P will have declined by 69.2% from its January 4, 2022 all-time high of 4818.62.   

For Markowski’s 2007 to 2022 media-verifiable crash forecasts, please see the table below. 

Additionally, Markowski at a December 2021 Family Office Club event, accurately predicted that the peak and the end for the S&P 500’s secular bull market, which began in March 2009, would occur in January 2022.   He also predicted that the first secular bear for the index since 2000-2009 would begin.  The S&P 500’s all-time high occurred on January 4, 2022.

PLEASE NOTE: Due to secular bears being extremely dangerous Mr. Markowski established “Markowski on the Market”, which he hosts every Saturday morning at 11:00AM EST.  The sessions, which are complementary, provide the ongoing research and knowledge to make good decisions throughout the secular bear.  To make a reservation to attend his Saturday sessions click here. 

The table below contains all of Markowsk’s forecasts for the bottoms and percentage declines from the January 2022 high for the S&P 500.  He updates his forecast each month after the US inflation rate is published. The latest forecasted 1482.90 bottom is 40.6% above his lowest S&P 500 bottom forecast of 880.75 that he made in June 2022.

The forecast was calculated from the last reported US inflation rate of 7.7% for January 2023.  It equated to a real dividend yield (Div/Y) of −6.05% for the S&P 500.  After the inflation rate for February 2023 is published later in March 2023 the forecast will be updated.

PLEASE NOTE: Mr. Markowski’s article Inflation to Shoulder Blame for 79.95% S&P 500 Decline” cited later herein, provides details about the Div/Y, which adjusts for inflation. The indicator has been very accurate for determining S&P 500’s major tops and bottoms since 1871.

Mr. Markowski is known for his precision forecasts.  His March 6, 2020 report, “U.S. Stock Market to Decline by Another 22% by Easter”, provided the hard data and rationale for the U.S. and other major foreign stock indices (cited in the table below) to decline by a minimum of 34% from their February 2020 record highs. The article cited that as of February 28, 2020 the indices had already declined by 10.8% to 13.8%. Well before Easter Sunday, April 12, 2020, the indices had declined by 32.1% to 39.9% from their pre-Pandemic 2020 record highs.

Mr. Markowski is also forecasting that the S&P 500’s trek to its bottom along with the US Federal Reserve’s hiking of its discount rate much to fast will cause the U.S. to enter into its Third Great Depression by end of 2023 or early 2024.  His research intense June 2022 articles and “Entrenched Inflation” presentation at a September 15, 2022 New York city event are available via this link and are highly recommended:

  1. Inflation to Shoulder Blame for 79.95% S&P 500 Decline”, Michael Markowski (June 4, 2022), AlphaTack.com, AlphaTack This article reveals key points, as follows:
  • High correlation between the S&P 500’s real (inflation adjusted) dividend yield status (positive or negative) and performance of the index over a century and a half (from 1871 to 2020)
  • Whenever the real dividend yield was negative from 1871 to 2019, the S&P 500 underperformed and was crash-prone
  • When the dividend yield was positive the S&P 500 had its best performances

PLEASE NOTE: View the highly recommended 16:38 minute video clip below, “Inflation to Shoulder Blame for 79.95% S&P 500 Decline” Markowski (June 6, 2022), AlphaTack.com, AlphaTack Intel.

2. “S&P 500’s Bottoms Occur Only When Generational Investors Buy!”, Markowski (June 4, 2022), AlphaTack.com, AlphaTackIntel. This article reveals:

  • Why generational investors ― the world’s oldest and largest, including family offices, endowments, sovereign wealth funds, etc. ― are highly disciplined to not buy stocks until the S&P 500 Div/Y goes from negative to positive. View related article entitled, “All Family Offices Need to ‘Come of Age’“, Markowski (April 3, 2022), AlphaTack.com, AlphaTack Intel.
  • Fed’s 2020 policy mistake was similar to its 1920 policy mistake, which led to first U.S. Great Depression and 32% S&P 500 decline
  • Fed’s 2021 policy mistake is similar to that of 19281929 policy mistake, which led to 85% S&P 500 decline and second U.S. Great Depression.
  • S&P 500 decline will mimic the Second Great Depression decline of 85%, rather than the 32% decline of the First Great Depression.

PLEASE NOTE: Please also view related 12:47 minute video clip below (Part 2 of 2), entitled, “Research Findings Supporting Third U.S. Great Depression to Begin”, Documented with Part 1 of 2, “Inflation’s Chaos to Cause 79.95% S&P 500 Decline and 3rd U.S. Great Depression”, Part 2 of 2, “Research Findings Supporting Third U.S. Great Depression to Begin” Markowski (April 3, 2022), AlphaTack.com, AlphaTack Intel.

Markowski’s forecasted 69.2% decline for the S&P 500 from its all-time high coincides with his December 2021 prediction that a new secular bear market would begin in January 2022.   His prediction was precise. The S&P has declined by more than 20% since reaching its all-time high of 4818.62 on 1/4/22. 

The S&P 500 entering its first secular bear market since 2000-2009 is significant.  Its because the minimum decline for the S&P 500 during a secular bear market has ranged from 47% to 85% since 1929, see table below.   The fact that the S&P 500 is in a secular bear increases the probability that Markowski’s 69.2% decline for the index will be accurate.

PLEASE NOTE: Attend Michael Markowski’s “Markowski on the Market” every Saturday at 11:00AM EST.  Mr. Markowski is holding the sessions free of charge.  He is very concerned for a majority of all investors and especially investors who are 55 years and older.  Everyone needs to understand the psychology and the nature of a secular bear since they have 9 to 13 years durations.  See table above.  

Michael Markowski, Director of Research for BullsNBears.com. Developer of Defensive Growth Strategy. Entered markets with Merrill Lynch in 1977. Named “Top 50 Investor” by Fortune Magazine. Formerly, underwriter of venture stage IPOs, including one acquired by United Health Care for 1700% gain. Since 2002 has conducted empirical research to develop algorithms which predict the negative and positive extremes for the market and stocks. Has verifiable track records for predicting (1) bankruptcies of blue chips, (2) market crashes and (3) stocks multiplying by 10X. In a 2007 Equities Magazine article predicted the epic collapses for Lehman, Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch. Most recent algorithm developed from research of UBER and AirBnB has enabled identification of startups having 100X upside potential within 7 to 10 years.