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Disturbing Thoughts

Remember when banks were small? Those old enough to have a bank account in the 1970s should. Back then, most people did their banking with a locally owned institution, often the First National Bank of (Your Town). These were fully independent banks, not branches of...

Recession Odds Rising

Recently I saw someone share a clip from their weather app. It said, “Rain expected at 3 pm,” right above a little graphic showing a 30% chance of rain at 3 pm. What’s wrong with that picture? Well, if the calculated odds of rain were only 30%, then “expected” wasn’t...

Another Unstable Finger

“There’s an old saying: Whenever the Fed hits the brakes, someone goes through the windshield,” said Michael Feroli, chief economist at J.P. Morgan. “You just never know who it’s going to be.” (The New York Times, March 16, 2023) For years I’ve used a sandpile...

Thousand-Word Equivalents

If a picture is worth a thousand words, this will be the “longest” letter I’ve sent you in a while, as there are quite a few pictures. It may also be the most wide-ranging. Every Wednesday my Over My Shoulder members get a PDF file with some of the week’s most...