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Slow Change Speeds Up

The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the...

The Punchbowl Is Gone

The Federal Open Market Committee’s 12 voting members differ on where they think interest rates should go this year. But we know they’re unanimously against cutting rates until at least 2024—or at least they were as of December, according to that meeting’s minutes....

Year of the Pause

“Every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end.” — Seneca, the Elder “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard.” — H.L. Mencken Welcome to 2023. It’s Forecast Season on Wall Street, the time...

Higher for Longer

This will be my last letter of 2022. I want to use this letter as a set-up for my annual forecast issue the first week of January. That means we will touch on a variety of topics, kind of a snapshot into where my mind is today. Get ready to travel the world but let’s...

Recession Scale

Economic news—and market reactions to it—increasingly resemble a tennis game. Spectators follow the ball back and forth, thinking something will happen but usually it doesn’t. Last week, for instance, many investors got excited when they thought Jerome Powell was...