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Controlling the Curve

If time is money, then interest rates are the price of time. The most important interest rates in the world are for US Treasury securities. This is why I’ve long said it makes no sense for a committee to set those rates. The markets could do just fine without that...

The Grip Tightens

This is part two of my 2021 forecast series. I began last week (you can read it here) discussing a three-handed alien race envisioned by science fiction writers Jerry Pournelle and Larry Niven. They had two regular hands and a third “gripping hand,” which though less...

Year of the Gripping Hand

This week’s letter is the first part of my 2021 forecast. There is simply too much to cover in one letter, and today we’ll start with the most important factor, a known unknown, that I think will be the driver for 2021. Before beginning, I want to make two points, one...

Stock Market Party

“History repeats itself, that’s one of the things that’s wrong with history.” —Clarence Darrow (1857-1938), American lawyer The end of 2020 has me looking back. I started writing the letters that later became Thoughts from the Frontline back in the...