by John Mauldin | Jul 14, 2023 | alerts, Markets/Economy, Mauldin Economics
The market, and maybe all of us, would like to believe the latest 3% annual CPI number was a harbinger of ever-lower inflation, and we are on the road to 2% inflation by year end. I would argue, “Not so fast.” Inflation is far from dead, and CPI will likely go...
by John Mauldin | Jul 7, 2023 | alerts, Markets/Economy, Mauldin Economics
“A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest…” —The Boxer, Paul Simon, 1969 One of the hardest parts of economic forecasting is separating what we expect from what we want. Actually, this is part of the human condition, genetically programmed into us and...
by John Mauldin | Jun 30, 2023 | alerts, Markets/Economy, Mauldin Economics
National leaders are (or should be) reluctant to enter wars because, once begun, they are often hard to end. You could be bogged down for years, vainly trying plan after plan as the damage accumulates. Monetary policy works the same way. Central bankers think they can...
by John Mauldin | Jun 23, 2023 | alerts, Markets/Economy, Mauldin Economics
I’ve often thought it would be fun to convene a therapy group of weather forecasters and economic forecasters. Both face the same frustration: Everybody wants a clear, simple answer they can’t possibly give, because they don’t know. Then they get blamed for being...
by John Mauldin | Jun 16, 2023 | alerts, Markets/Economy, Mauldin Economics
A year ago, the US Consumer Price Index was rising at an almost 9% annual rate. The Federal Reserve was trying to change that trend with tighter policy. But it wasn’t just the Fed. All of us—businesses, consumers, everyone—responded to the pain. Good news: Our...
by John Mauldin | Jun 9, 2023 | alerts, Markets/Economy, Mauldin Economics
In economics we often talk about cycles. “Business cycle theory” is an entire academic sub-field whose basic idea is that economic history really does repeat itself. Not in every detail, of course, but as a recurring sequence of expansions and recessions. More...
