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Volatile market decline to soon begin
The reopening of the world economies last week and the headlines about every economist on the planet being wrong about Friday’s US jobs report resulted in a stock market buying stampede. Based on the total job gains representing only 21% of the US jobs lost since...
The Bull Is Back! Markets Charge As Economy Lags 06-05-20
In this issue of “The Bull Is Back! Markets Charge As Economy Lags” A Note About That Jobs Number Investors Are Too Optimistic Technical Review Portfolio Positioning MacroView: Rationalizing High Valuations Won’t Improve Outcomes Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan...
Behind the scene look at May’s US job statistics
The US stock indices rallied today due to the US economy gaining 2.5 million jobs in May. Economists had been expecting a 2.5 million jobs decline. The unemployment rate came in at 13% vs. the projected 19%. However, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said...
COVID-19: A Data-Driven Analysis
Should you wear a mask in public? This seemingly simple question immediately generates emotional, political, and social anxiety. It is just one of many provocative questions COVID-19 is forcing upon us. They should be simple, data-driven policy issues but many are...
Bear Trader’s gains as high as 44% since March 2020
The Bear Trader, a trend trading algorithm that was spun off from the Bull & Bear Tracker to primarily trade inverse or short market index ETFs, enabled aggressive and conservative traders to make gains of 3.3% and 1.1% respectively for the month of May 2020. ...
Inflation, Stock Market’s worst nemesis on the horizon
My recent article pointed out that after adjusting for inflation, it took 30 years (or until 1959) for the stock market to recover to its 1929 high. The revelation prompted me to conduct additional empirical research on GDP and its components from 1929 to 1942. My...
Technically Speaking: Too Fast, Too Furious As Fed Liquidity Slows
Too fast, too furious. That describes the April/May advance following the fastest 30% decline in history. The reason was not an improvement in fundamentals, but a generation of investors front running Fed liquidity flows. Such should not be surprising as this is what...
Bull & Bear Tracker averaging 8% per month from July 2019 to May 2020
May 2020, was the 11th consecutive profitable month for the Bull & Bear Tracker’s (BBT) automated signals. The gain from utilizing BBT’s signals to trade the SPY and SH ETFs during May was 8.6% vs. 4.5% for the S&P 500. For the 11 months the BBT’s...
Are Investors Too Optimistic About A Recovery?
People tend to overlook the long-term damage being done to the economy. They think we will just have a "V" shaped recovery or a "U" shaped recovery, and things will be fine. I'm sorry, that is just not how it works. Recessions create output gaps, and those output gaps...
Market Breaks Above 200-DMA. Is The Bull Back? 05-30-20
In this issue of “Market Breaks Above 200-DMA, Are All-Time Highs Next?” Market Breaks Above 200-DMA Are Bulls TOO Optimistic Technical Review Portfolio Positioning MacroView: CFNAI Crashes Most On Record, Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On:...
Economics in Orbit
The history of humanity, at least as taught in most schools, is really about two seemingly opposite forces: human innovation and human conflict. The same intelligence that lets us accomplish great things also sets us against each other. But sometimes, we rise above...
Technically Speaking: Defining The Market Using Long-Term Analysis
This past weekend, I asked if the decline in March was a bear market or just a big correction. The debate that ensued was polarizing, to say the least. However, defining the market using long-term analysis is essential in determining the current trend, potential...
Bear Market? Or Just A Big Correction? 05-22-20
In this issue of “Was This A Bear Market? Or Just A Big Correction?” Still Stuck In The Middle What Defines A “Real” Bear Market? A Growing List Of Concerns Portfolio Positioning MacroView: Why Jeremy Siegel Is Wrong About Bonds Sector &...
Rewinding the Tape
We finished the Virtual Strategic Investment Conference yesterday. I can honestly say it was simply the best conference I have ever attended or been privileged to host. The ability to bring together so many exciting speakers, something schedules would not have allowed...
US Market and GDP will not exceed recent highs until 2030
Based on the findings from my most recent empirical research, it will be at least 11 years before the US’ stock market and GDP climb back to above their recent all-time highs. Since the S&P 500, Dow and NASDAQ composites have rallied back from their March 2020...
Technically Speaking: Chase Momentum Until Fundamentals Matter
On Monday, the markets surged on hopes for a “virus vaccine” and encouraging words for the Federal Reserve that liquidity isn’t going away. Such puts us in the awkward position of having to chase market momentum, knowing fundamentals will eventually...
Stuck In The Middle As Seasonal Sell Signals Trigger 05-16-20
In this issue of “Stuck In The Middle As Seasonal Sell Signals Trigger:” View Of The Markets & Portfolio Positioning MacroView: Why Jeremy Siegel Is Wrong About Bonds Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook,...
Reflection Week
I knew this letter’s topic months ago. It was going to be a review of the Strategic Investment Conference, which would have just concluded fabulously in sunny Scottsdale. Well, something intervened. Coronavirus precautions kept us from having an in-person conference....
Fed can’t Fool Mother Nature!
The S&P 500’s rally from its March 2020 low to within 13.2% of its 2020 high has been primarily fueled by the US Federal Reserve’s monetary stimulus. The Fed has and continues to spend trillions to provide the economy with liquidity and to artificially prop up...
Economically Speaking: The Stock Market Is Not The Economy?
“The stock market is not the economy.” Such is the latest rationalization to support the “bull market” narrative. The question, however, is the validity of the statement. As I noted in this past weekend’s newsletter: “There is...
Why Assets Will Crash
The increasing concentration of the ownership of wealth/assets in the top 10% has an under-appreciated consequence: when only the top 10% can afford to buy assets, that unleashes an almost karmic payback for the narrowing of ownership, a.k.a. soaring wealth and income...
Depressionary Economy Vs. A Bull Market. Both Can’t Be Right.
The Great Divide: A Depressionary Economy Versus A Bull Market MacroView: “Savings Mirage” Won’t Save The Economy Financial Planning Corner: The Great Reset (Webinar) Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook,...
Bull & Bear Tracker S&P 500 core signals outperform S&P 500 for 7 out of 8 months
The Bull & Bear Tracker’s (BBT) core or automated signals to trade S&P 500’s SPY and SH ETFs outperformed the S&P 500 and also the BBT’s managed signals for the eight months ended February 29, 2020. The risk for BBT’s automated and its managed signals was...
Five Viral Lessons
We live in truly historic times. “There are decades when nothing happens, and weeks when decades happen,” says a quote usually attributed to Vladimir Lenin. It certainly fits now. For thousands of years, people who lived through what we call “history” didn’t realize...
Bear Trader, Short the Market Algo up 40.6% since March 2020
The Bear Trader, a trend trading algorithm that primarily trades inverse or short market index ETFs, enabled conservative and aggressive traders to make gains of 13.62% and 40.60% respectively from March 3, 2020, to April 30, 2020. The Bear Trader, which will soon be...
Technically Speaking: Will The Market Retest Lows This Summer?
Will the market retest lows this summer? In this past weekend’s commentary, I discussed the end of the seasonally strong period for the market. “Despite the sell-off on the last day of April, the Best Six Months has ended on a positive note, registering the best...
Market to Turn its Attention back to the Economy
On March 23rd in the darkest moments of the pandemic, I wrote an article called ‘light at the end of the corona virus tunnel’ in which I strongly believed that the market, after a bruising 34% decline in only a matter of weeks, had reached a bottom and it was time to...
April 2020, Bull & Bear Tracker’s 10th consecutive profitable month
April 2020, was the 10th consecutive month of gains for the Bull & Bear Tracker’s (BBT) automated signals. The gain from utilizing BBT’s automated signals to trade the SPY and SH ETFs during April was 15.1% vs. 12.7% for the S&P 500. For the 10 months the...
Prepare for the Era of Recrimination
To think that the economy is going to reaccelerate in the third quarter in a V-shaped recovery to the level where gross domestic product (GDP) was prior to the pandemic is unrealistic. Four years from now the economy will most likely recover to the same level of...
“Sell In May” Might Be A Good Risk Strategy This Year (Full Report)
“Sell In May” Might Be A Good Risk Strategy This Year MacroView: The Fed, Permanently Stuck At Zero Financial Planning Corner: 12-Steps To Retirement (Webinar) Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound...
The Figure-It-Out Economy
Market sentiment reflects human sentiment, which lately has been quite negative—understandably so, given the great uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus pandemic. A month ago, we didn’t know where all this was going but it was potentially serious. I can almost begin...
Interim relief rally highs for markets has or will soon occur
Based on the signals from the SCPA (crash statistical probability analyses) and the Bull & Bear Tracker algorithms its probable that the stock markets of the US and 12 other countries that have been crashing have reached or will soon reach their interim relief...
Market volatility to power 17% monthly gains through October 2022
Increased market volatility since February 2020, will power average monthly gains of 17% and cumulative gains of 500% from trading the long and short ETFs for the US and 12 other countries through October 2022 according to the SCPA algorithm. The markets of the 13...
Technically Speaking: Market Rises As The Economy Reopens
Market rises as the economy reopens. The question, however, is what happens next? While there has been much debate from the economic perspective, the market has risen in anticipation of the event. Is it an “all clear,” for the bulls, or are there still...
Worldwide 1930s Style Depression Has Begun!
SCPA (statistical crash probability analyses) forecast: 100% probability the first worldwide economic depression has begun! World and US economies to decline through at least 2023. These bold statements are based on statistical probability analyses of two new...
Market Stalls, Is The “Bear Market” Rally Over? – Full Report
Market Stalls, Is The Bear Market Rally Over? MacroView: This Time Might Be Different Financial Planning Corner: Top Planning Questions Answered Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Catch...
Viral Thoughts
We are looking at a world with parameters bounded by pure imagination; where we go from here is anyone's guess. —Will Thomson and Chip Russell, Massif Capital Today’s letter will be another hop-around review of the crisis landscape. I’ll touch on several topics...
Market Crash Forecasting algo breakthrough for all investors
The SCPA algorithm is a significant breakthrough for all investors. The potential for a market to crash, for a correction to become a crash, a crash’s intensity and post-crash events are now forecastable. Instead of riding out crashes, as was similarly the case for...
Fundamentally Speaking: Estimating The Earnings Crash
In early March, before the impact of the COVID-19 was fully understood, I penned an article suggesting that both corporate profits and S&P 500 earnings were suggesting the “bear market wasn’t over.” To wit: “Profit margins are probably the...
Bull & Bear Tracker Notice
The good news is that the cumulative gains for conservative traders trading the inverse SH ETF last week was 1.9% and for aggressive traders who traded the inverse SPXS last week was 6%.The bad news is that due to extremely volatile market conditions the signals in...
Market Rallies Into The “Resistance Zone” – Full Report
Market Rallies Into The “Resistance Zone” MacroView: This Time Might Be Different Financial Planning Corner: Top Planning Questions Answered Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking...
Repricing the World
The viral fog is starting to thin. US coronavirus case growth appears to be slowing, albeit at a tragically high level. Governments and businesses are thinking about the next stage. On the other hand, fog tends to return when the weather is right. Might this virus...
Bull & Bear Tracker subscriber notice
Due to markets becoming extremely volatile in March of 2020, the publishing of the Bull & Bear Tracker’s (BBT) signals has been extremely limited. The signals had been averaging a monthly return of 5%. since July 2019. See “Why the Bull & Bear Tracker exited...
Bull & Bear Tracker shatters all monthly records for March 2020
March 2020, was the Bull & Bear Tracker’s (BBT) best month for its published and also for its core or automated signals since the first signal was published in April 2018. The BBT’s published or managed signals for conservative traders to trade the S&P 500...
Technically Speaking: The Reward Doesn’t Justify The Risk
In this past weekend’s missive, I discussed the market’s completion of the 50% retracement. To wit: “From a purely technical basis, the extreme downside extension, and potential selling exhaustion, has set the markets up for a fairly strong reflexive...
Market Completes A 50% “Bear Market” Retracement (Full Report)
Market Completes A 50% Retracement MacroView: Is The “Debt Chasm” Too Big For The Fed To Fill Financial Planning Corner: Top Planning Questions Answered Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud,...
Month over month decline in Consumer confidence largest ever recorded
University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US fell to 71 in April from 89.1 in March, missing market expectations of 75 by a considerable margin. The April numbers are the lowest reading since December of 2011 and the largest monthly decline ever recorded. The...
Bending the Inflation Curve
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output. … A steady rate of monetary growth at a moderate level can provide a framework under which a...
Difference between market corrections and crashes
Due to my recent findings from researching the empirical data of prior market crashes since 1901, investors in the future will be able to distinguish a crash from a correction. All crashes and corrections can now be measured and categorized. The chart below for...
Technically Speaking: The 4-Phases Of A Full-Market Cycle
In a recent post, I discussed the “3-stages of a bear market.” To wit: “Yes, the market will rally, and likely substantially so. But, let me remind you of Bob Farrell’s Rule #8 from our recent newsletter: Bear markets have three stages – sharp...
Stock market relief rally high date extended
The date range for the SCPA’s forecasted relief rally highs for stock markets of the US, Japan, Germany, France, South Korea, and Canada to occur has been adjusted. Based on the adjustment the SCPA’s new 100% statistical probability is that the relief rally highs...
Major Technical Failures Confirms Bear Market Risk (Full Report)
Major Technical Failures Confirms Bear Market Risks MacroView: The 2020 Investment Summit Financial Planning Corner: Anatomy Of A Bear Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Catch Up On...
Notes from Lockdown
In times of change learners inherit the earth; while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists. —Eric Hoffer Greetings from Puerto Rico, where this frequent traveler is evidently home for an unusually long time. I want...
Markets now at tipping point; roller coaster ride will be epic
The market indices of the US, Japan, South Korea, Canada, France and Germany and the share prices for many of the world’s largest companies including Apple and Microsoft are at the tipping point. Stocks and indices reached their post-crash and relief rally closing...
Embrace the Bear!
Investors must embrace the bear. A savvy investor or advisor can generate significantly more profits from a secular bear than a secular bull. It’s also much easier to predict the behavior of a wild and vicious bear than a domesticated bull. The new 2020 secular...
The TRUTH about Dow’s “… Biggest One-Day Jump Since 1933”
The Wall Street Journal’s “Dow Soars More Than 11% in Biggest One-Day Jump Since 1933” was inaccurate. It should have read since “1929”. The article should have been about the Dow Jones industrials composite index having its best one day and three-day percentage...
Technically Speaking: 5-Questions Bulls Need To Answer Now.
In last Tuesday’s Technically Speaking post, I stated: “From a purely technical basis, the extreme downside extension, and potential selling exhaustion, has set the markets up for a fairly strong reflexive bounce. This is where fun with math comes in. As...
Futu Releases Solid Earnings to Shaky Market
Futu Holdings Ltd. (Nasdaq: FUTU), a leading tech-driven brokerage in China, reported positive results last Wednesday for 2019 and for the fourth quarter ending December 31. Top executives also made the case in an earnings call for strong growth in 2020, despite the...
BullsNBears.com adds China, Hong Kong to its research coverage
Since the markets for mainland China and Hong Kong have not broken their secular bull trend lines the “Emerging Markets” research category has been added to BullsNBears.com. The stock markets of mainland communist China and Hong Kong are the beneficiaries of the...
Bull Market? No, The Bear Still Rules For Now (Full Report)
Bull Market? No, The Bear Still Rules MacroView: The Fed Can’t Fix What’s Broken Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha 2020 Investment Summit – April 2nd. The “2020...
Postcards from the Frontline
Unprecedented events are happening so fast, I barely know where to start. But let’s begin with a small one, noticeable perhaps only to me. Over the years I’ve received thousands of reader emails responding to my letters. I read and appreciate them all, even the...
Crash event forecasting algo nails another one
In yesterday’s “Crash events forecasting also accurate at calling market tops and bottoms”, March 24, 2020, article the statistical crash probability analysis (SCPA) algorithm forecasted that the probability was 100% that the stock indices for the US, Japan, Germany,...
Crash events forecasting algo accurate at calling market tops and bottoms
The statistical crash probability analysis (SCPA) algorithm’s forecast for an interim market bottom to occur on March 23, 2020, was precisely accurate. It was the algo’s third consecutive precise major global markets call for March of 2020. The day after the...
Bull & Bear Tracker signal sell targets raised
My March 23, 2020, “Probability is 87% that market is at interim bottom” article contained the projected targets for eight global stock market indices upon a significant market rally occurring. Now that a powerful rally is now underway the targets have been...
Technically Speaking: Fed Goes All In. When’s The “Bear Market” Rally?
Let’s flashback to a time not so long ago, May 2019. “It was interesting to see Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, during an address to the Fernandina Beach banking conference, channel Ben Bernanke during his speech on corporate...
Light at the end of the Corona Virus Tunnel?
The SP500 has dropped 34% since its peak on February 20th amid the Corona Virus turmoil. I believe now is the time to begin buying stocks once again. We are in the midst of the greatest market panic comparable only to 1929, 1987, and 2008. The level of fear has...
Probability is 87% that market is at interim bottom
Based on my crash statistical probability analysis (SCPA) the probability is 87.5% that the stock markets of the US and the five other leading developed countries, which have been crashing since February 20, 2020, have reached an interim bottom. If the interim...
“No One Saw It Coming” – Should You Worry About The 10-Best Days
Pippa Stevens via CNBC recently had some advice: “Panic selling not only locks in losses, but also puts investors at risk for missing the market’s best days. Looking at data going back to 1930, Bank of America found that if an investor missed the S&P 500′s 10 best...
Bull & Bear Tracker’s performance, spectacular!
For the first 20 days of March 2020, the Bull & Bear Tracker’s back tested signals performance was spectacular. Utilizing the signals to day trade the unleveraged S&P 500 long (SPY) and short (SH) ETFs produced a cumulative gain of 41%. The trend trading...
Everyone Wanting To Buy Suggests The Bear Still Prowls (Full Report)
Everyone Wanting To Buy Suggests The Bear Still Prowls MacroView: Mnuchin & Kudlow Say No Recession? Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Catch Up On What You Missed Last Week NOTE:...
The Beacons Are Lit
In the film version of Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, there’s a three-minute scene you should watch or re-watch. It is relevant to our situation today. Gondor needed to light the beacons for aid. Click here for video. At the other end of the beacons,...
Coronavirus Is Not an Emergency. It’s a War.
This is a short midweek note, something I haven’t done for years. But as we all know, these are very special and difficult times. Below, I’ll give you two links. They describe the nature of the new coronavirus pandemic and its potential consequences. I have run this...
Technically Speaking: Risk Limits Hit, When Too Little Is Too Much
For the last several months, we have been issuing repeated warnings about the market. While such comments are often mistaken for “being bearish,” we have often stated it is our process of managing “risk” which is most important. Beginning in...
Dip buyers, beware of sensational headlines!
Many investors are salivating to trade the dips in a stock market which is becoming increasingly more volatile. It’s because Wall Street for the week ended March 13th according to the headlines had its worst week since 2008. Its human nature to want to buy at fire...
Market Crash. Is It Over, Or Is It The “Revenant”
Market Crash: Is It Over, Or Is It The Revenant? MacroView: Fed Launches A Bazooka To Kill A Virus Financial Planning Corner: Tips For A Volatile Market Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking...
Coronavirus Helicopter Money
I write this letter early Friday morning after a week in New York visiting with many fellow market participants. And lots of phone calls, both to analysts and medical experts. I had originally planned a completely different letter but circumstances changed. Humility...
Discovery of “Pathology of a Market Crash” reduces risks and losses
My discovery of the pathology of a market crash from my research on the evolution of hurricane forecasting is a significant breakthrough for all investors. Market crashes and their levels of intensity can now be forecasted. Instead of riding out crashes, as was...
March Madness: Having A Process For A Winning Outcome
We are coming upon that time of year when the markets play second fiddle to debates about which twelve seed could be this year’s Cinderella in the NCAA basketball tournament. For college basketball fans, this particular time of year is dubbed March Madness. The...
Technically Speaking: On The Cusp Of A Bear Market
“Tops are a process and bottoms are an event” Over the last couple of years, we have discussed the ongoing litany of issues which plagued the underbelly of the financial markets. The “corporate credit” markets are at risk of a wave of defaults. Earnings...
2020 Crash is equivalent to 3rd “Category 5 Hurricane” in 90 years! Get out of market today!
Based on my findings from researching empirical data from the Dow crash of 1929 and the NASDAQ dotcom bubble bursting in 2000, investors should immediately sell all of their holdings of mutual funds and all stock that are priced over $10 per share TODAY. This crash...
Why the Bull & Bear Tracker exited the market on March 3rd
Last week the Bull & Bear Tracker (BBT) exited the market on Tuesday, March 3, 2020 after producing a net gain of 1.4% for the week. The reasons why the tracker did not re-enter the market: Market was too volatile for text messaged instructions. During one...
Playing Defense: We Don’t Know What Happens Next
Playing Defense: We Don’t Know What Happens Next MacroView: Fed Emergency Cut Exposes “Recession” Risks Financial Planning Corner: Tips For A Volatile Market Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In,...
February US Jobs report a bright light in a dim room
The February non-farm payrolls were a welcome surprise as they rose by 273 thousand, the most sinceMarch 2018 and the unemployment rate dipped to 3.5% from 3.6%. It appears that the US economy isstill in good shape and quite a way off from entering recession...
US Stock Market to decline by another 22% by Easter
The simultaneous double-digit declines for the stock markets of four of the world’s developed countries from February 20 to February 28, 2020 was not only an historic event; but unfortunately, ominous in that it portends dire financial times ahead. Based on...
February 2020, Bull & Bear Tracker’s 8th consecutive profitable month
For February of 2020, the Bull & Bear Tracker’s aggressive trader signals produced a gain of 2.5% vs. an 8.7% decline for the S&P 500. Since June 30, 2019, the Bull & Bear Tracker: Averaged a monthly gain of above 5% Produced a cumulative gain of 45.5%...
Chinese Coronavirus Changeup
In baseball, there is a kind of pitch called the “changeup,” designed to look like a fastball while actually going slower. The deceived batter swings too soon and misses. Strike, you’re out. The world has thrown a wicked biological changeup at the global economy. This...
Overvalued stocks, freefalling US Dollar to soon cause epic market crash!
The root cause of the significant correction for the world stock market which will soon become an epic crash is not the Coronavirus. See also, my March 6, 2020 article “US Stock Market to decline by another 22% by Easter”. The causes of the correction which began on...
Technically Speaking: Sellable Rally, Or The Return Of The Bull?
Typically, “Technically Speaking,” is an analysis of Monday’s market action, and the relevant risk/reward dynamics for investors. However, this week, we need to update the strategy we lain out in this past weekend’s newsletter, “Market...
US economy resilient despite possible emergence of bear market
The stock market may have been in free fall last week, it seems to have caught itself today and has recovered, with the Dow up well over 1,000 points. Whether this turnaround will last and improve remains to be seen. Some stock analysts believe the market has moved...
Stock market, a buy at October lows
Glass Bead Capital Management (Glass Bead) warned our readers and investors on January 23rd that the market was vulnerable to a correction and that it would be wise to take profits. We had deduced that the probability was fairly high that the market would provide a...
Market Crash & Navigating What Happens Next 02-28-20
Market Crash & Navigating What Happens Next MacroView: The Ghosts Of 2018 Financial Planning Corner: Why Dave Ramsey Is Wrong On Life Insurance Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha...
COVID-19: A Crisis the Fed Can’t Fix
For the last 3+ years, I have maintained it would take an “exogenous” event to send the United States into recession. Historically suboptimal growth? Sure, but sub-3% growth isn’t a recession. The coronavirus obviously qualifies as an exogenous event. But that doesn’t...
Technically Speaking: Markets Start To Price In “Viral Impacts”
At the end of January, I wrote a piece titled “This Is Nuts: Why We Reduced Risk” discussing why we took profits in our portfolios. Here is the important point: “When you sit down with your portfolio management team, and the first comment made is...
Did The Market Just Get Infected?
Did The Market Just Get Infected? MacroView: Japan, The Fed, & The Limits Of QE Financial Planning Corner: Part 2: Dave Ramsey Is Wrong About Life Insurance Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud,...
Why Americans Want Socialism
As I write this, a self-proclaimed “democratic socialist” is leading the race for one of our major parties’ presidential nomination. The fact that so many Americans (especially young Americans) support Bernie Sanders ought to tell us something. A Quinnipiac poll out...
Technically Speaking: Chasing The Market? Warnings Are Everywhere
This past weekend, we discussed the breakout to all-time highs as the belief the market is immune to risks, due to the Federal Reserve, has become pervasive. As I quoted: “Yet as a major economic problem looms on the horizon, the cognitive disconnect between...
Market Believes It Has Immunity To Risks
Market Believes It Has Immunity To Risk MacroView: Debt, Deficits & The Path To MMT Financial Planning Corner: Why Dave Ramsey Is Wrong About Life Insurance Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud,...
Depending on the Undependable
The welfare of a nation can scarcely be inferred from a measure of [GDP].” —Simon Kuznets (who developed GDP), 1934 At the risk of restating the obvious, production should result in a product the producer can recognize. That’s the case even for intangible products....
Why “Not-QE” is QE: Deciphering Gibberish
“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you’ve probably misunderstood what I’ve said.” – Alan Greenspan Imagine if Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell told the American people they must pay more for the goods and services they...
Technically Speaking: COT Positioning – Volatility, Oil, Dollar, & Rates (Q3-2019)
As discussed in the past weekend’s newsletter, we have been laying out the basis for a market correction. What has been most stunning is the rapid reversion in sentiment from “bearishness” this summer, to outright excess “bullishness” in...
Technically Speaking: COT Positioning – Risk Of Correction Still High (Q1-2020)
As discussed in this past weekend’s newsletter, the market remains overly extended as the recent correction sharply reversed on expectations for more Fed liquidity. However, with the market extremely deviated from the long-term moving average, a correction is...
Market Downturn? Putting Corrections Into Perspective
Shawn Langlois recently penned an interesting article: “Despite a few notable hiccups along the way, the bull market continues to prove insanely resilient.” What was most interesting, however, was the following quote: “Current hypervalued extremes are...
Market Vaccine For Virus Is More Fed’s “NotQE”
Market Vaccine For Virus Is More Fed Trust The Process MacroView: The Next Minsky Moment Is Inevitable Financial Planning Corner: 5-Things You Need To Know About HSA’s Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In,...
MacroView: The Next “Minsky Moment” Is Inevitable
In 2007, I was at a conference where Paul McCulley, who was with PIMCO at the time, was discussing the idea of a “Minsky Moment.” At that time, this idea fell on “deaf ears” as the markets, and economy, were in full swing. However, it...
The Hits to GDP
Economists and investors are rightly obsessed with growth. We always want more of it. We worry it won’t come or, worse, might turn into contraction. Economists of all stripes, from Paul Krugman to Lacy Hunt, recognize economic growth cures all manner of ills. Yet,...
Technically Speaking: Market Bounce, January, & The Super Bowl.
In this past weekend’s newsletter, we stated the market was likely to bounce due to the short-term oversold condition which existed following Friday’s rout. To wit: “With a ‘sell signal’ clearly triggered (lower panel), it suggests, on a...
Big story is not “Bull & Bear Tracker’s 5% gain vs S&P 500 loss” for January 2020
For January 2020 the Bull & Bear Tracker’s signals produced a 5% gain vs. a 0.2% decline for the S&P 500. However, the big story is that the tracker was sitting in 100% cash for 11 days and in 50% cash for 10 of January’s 21 trading days. The table below...
Market Correction Goes Viral, Is It Time To Buy?
Market Correction Goes Viral Portfolio Position Review MacroView: Fed’s View Of Valuations May Be Misguided Financial Planning Corner: What You May Have In Common With Kobe Bryant Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook,...
Dismissing the Experts
Regular readers know I often criticize so-called “experts,” usually economists or central bankers whose flawed decisions are punishing the rest of us. I find their expertise is not nearly as reliable as they seem to think. At the same time, I rely on experts whose...
Q4 US GDP analysis
US fourth quarter GDP was up a mere 2.1%, unchanged from the preceding three-month period. The main drivers behind the modest growth were consumer and government spending, as well as residential fixed investment and exports. Interestingly, home sales, both new and...
“SARS” Versus “Wuhan”: The Difference Between “Now & Then”
A week dominated by headlines of a spreading respiratory virus has had investors recalling pandemics past, from SARS in 2003 to the Ebola scare six years ago. While the “Wuhan” virus, or known scientifically as “nCoV,” is still in its infancy,...
US household spending downgrade by US Federal Reserve Increases Market Volatility
The 2:00PM press conference held by US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the conclusion of the January 29th FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting started out with a bang. Within minutes the S&P 500 rallied to its high of the day. Shortly thereafter, the world’s...
Technically Speaking: “Coronavirus” Triggers Overdue Market Correction
Over the last few weeks, we have discussed the outsize market advance driven by the Fed’s massive liquidity injections into the market. As we discussed with our RIAPRO subscribers (30-day RISK FREE Trial) we stated: “If it appears to you that the recent...
Wuhan virus has potential to cause global market crash
Based on my reading the financial news and listening to the market pundits about the potential impact of the Wuhan Coronavirus the probability is very high that the global equity markets will experience a severe correction or maybe even a crash very soon. It’s...
Market Advance Stalls As Liquidity Begins To Slow
Market Advance Stalls Portfolio Position Review MacroView: Elites View World Through “Market Colored” Glasses Financial Planning Corner: 2-Things Advisors Shouldn’t Do Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook,...
Nose Blind to Inflation
The human brain excels at taking shortcuts. Processing all the information our senses collect takes a lot of energy, so repetitive data gets lower priority. Things we see often fade into the background so we can notice new stuff. This is where we get phenomena like...
Too Much Greed — Moving To The Sidelines
It has been a little over 3 months since our last commentary where we predicted that the market was likely to begin a big trending rally as we cleared almost 2 years of a range bound S&P500 and other major indices. Ranges are very important as they serve to...
Recession Arithmetic: What Would It Take?
David Rosenberg explores Recession Arithmetic in today’s Breakfast With Dave. I add a few charts of my own to discuss. Rosenberg notes “Private fixed investment has declined two quarters in a row as of 2019 Q3. Since 1980, this has only happened twice...
Technically Speaking: Extreme Deviations & Eventual Outcomes
The good news is that with the market closed yesterday, the extreme extensions of the market did not get any more extreme. Also, it doesn’t change our analysis much from this past weekend’s missive either: “This week, the market pushed those...
Eric Hickman: Recession Is More Likely Than You Think
Eric Hickman is president of Kessler Investment Advisors, Inc., an advisory firm located in Denver, Colorado specializing in U.S. Treasury bonds. Good economic news over the last couple months belies the fact that a recession could strike as soon as March 2020. That...
Market Continues “Euphoric” Advance As 3500 Becomes Next Target
Market Continues Euphoric Advance Portfolio Position Review MacroView: 2020 Market Outlook (Video) Financial Planning Corner: By The Numbers For 2020 Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking...
Looking on the Bright Side
We haven’t had a lot of good news lately. Or, more precisely, we haven’t seen a lot of good news lately, though it does exist. We don’t see it because both regular media and social media usually focus on the bad. That’s not entirely wrong. The survival imperative...
Technically Speaking: This Is Nuts – Part Deux
In this past weekend’s newsletter, we discussed the exceedingly deviated price, and overbought conditions, not to mention valuations, as key reasons why we slightly reduced risk in our portfolios. “On Friday, we began the orderly process of reducing...
Bull & Bear Tracker up 3.5% for first 10 days of January 2020, even though less than 50% invested
Through the first 10 days of 2020, the Bull & Bear Tracker: Produced a gain of 3.5% vs. the S&P 500’s 1.1% 100% cash for 3 of the 7 trading days 50% invested for the 4 of 7 days in market The 2020 year to date return and low risk exposure for the Bull &...
This Is Nuts & Why We Reduced Risk On Friday
This Is Nuts Portfolio Position Review MacroView: Has The Fed Trapped Itself? Financial Planning Corner: By The Numbers For 2020 Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Catch Up On What You...
Decade of Living Dangerously, Part 2
If living dangerously is your goal, just keep adding reasonable, manageable, prudent risks. Eventually they’ll add up to serious danger. Hyman Minsky showed how stability leads to instability. Humans have a way of reinterpreting stable periods that seemingly redefines...
Technically Speaking: Markets Dismiss Iran As The Fed “Put” Remains
You would think that with the U.S. taking out a top Iranian commander, threats of military action flying between the U.S. and Iran, not to mention the “Selective Service” website crashing over concerns of World War III, the markets would be in full...
Market Flat In 2020 As Iran Trips Up Traders
Market Review & Update MacroView: Is This A Repeat Of 2018? Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Catch Up On What You Missed Last Week Market Review & Update The first trading day...
Decade of Living Dangerously, Part 1
Welcome to the 2020s. Some weren’t sure we would make it this far, but we did. Now we face a new decade and new challenges. How we handle them will determine what kind of conversation we have in 2030. This concern for the future is one of the things that separates...
Special Update: Market “Melt Up” Continues
Market Melt Up Continues Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Catch Up On What You Missed Last Week Market “Melt Up” Continues I am traveling this week with my family for our...
Market And Investing Wisdoms For 2020
Last week, I posted our 2020 Outlook, which focused on the futility of trying to predict the future and the understanding of the current market risks headed into the next decade: “The reality is that we can’t control outcomes. The most we can do is influence the...
Market Melts Up As Fed Turns On The Liquidity Firehose
Market Melts Up As Fed Turns On Liquidity Firehose Opportunities In A Melt-Up 2020 – The Futility Of Predictions & Understanding The Risks Financial Planning Corner Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In,...
Prelude to Crisis
Ignoring problems rarely solves them. You need to deal with them—not just the effects, but the underlying causes, or else they usually get worse. The older you get, the more you know that is true in almost every area of life. In the developed world and especially the...
Technically Speaking: How To Pick Up A Porcupine
Last week, I discussed the registering of the monthly buy signals, which confirmed the bull market in the S&P 500 had resumed following the 2018 Fed/Trade induced sell off. Here is a snippet of our history in this regard: “In April of 2018, I penned an...
The Trade War Is Over, Long Live The Trade War
New Newsletter Format Market & Portfolio Positioning Review Demise Of The Dollar Santa To Visit Broad & Wall Rules For A Santa Rally Macro View The “Art Of The Deal” & How To Lose A Trade War New: Financial Planning Corner Sector & Market...
Time to Do the Hard Thing
We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to...
Federal Reserve’s final 2019 meeting summarized
The Federal Reserve in its final policy decision of the year left rates unchanged and indicated that it would keep them on hold next year, expecting a solid economy. So far the economic numbers support this point of view, but it is quite possible that the US tariff...
Technically Speaking: Monthly “Buy Signal” Say Bull Is Back? But For How Long?
Just recently, there have been numerous “bullishly biased” analysts and bloggers discussing the turn up in the monthly MACD indicators as a “sure sign” the bull market rally is set to continue. While “bullish buy signals” on any long-term indicator is indeed a...
2020 – The Year Decennial & Presidential Cycles Collide 12-06-19
Here Comes The Santa Claus Rally When Presidential & Decennial Cycles Collide New: Financial Planning Corner Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Here Comes Santa Claus (Rally) On...
Bull & Bear Tracker up 2.3% for 1 st week of December
The Bull & Bear Tracker’s net cash profit for the first week of December was 2.3%. The S&P 500 eked out a slight 0.16% gain for the week. See chart below. The Bull & Bear Tracker was also less risky than S&P 500 since it was 100% invested for only two...
Controversial ad creates opportunity to make 15 percent
A controversial TV ad which was aired by Peloton Interactive after Thanksgiving has resulted in the valuation of the company declining by $1.6 billion and its share price declining by 16%. The decline has created an opportunity to make 15% by early next year for two...
Inflationary Angst
According to the dictionary, the word angst refers to “a feeling of deep anxiety or dread, typically an unfocused one about the human condition or the state of the world in general.” It comes from a German word for “fear.” Two weeks ago I referred back to my...
Bull & Bear Tracker now Averaging 5.5 percent monthly
For the months of July through November of 2019, the average monthly return for the Bull & Bear Tracker’s published signals increased to 5.5 percent vs. its average monthly return of 2.3 percent for the April 9, 2018 to June 30, 2019 period. The increase in...
Market ripening for correction or crash
Based on my analysis of the S&P 500 technical chart patterns after new all-time highs were set in 1999, 2000, 2007, 2018 and 2019, the index is ripening for a significant correction or a crash. The volatility increasing for a market that is making new all-time...
Mauldin: We Are On The Brink Of The Second “Great Depression.”
You really need to watch this video of a recent conversation between Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones. Their part is about the first 40 minutes. In this video, Ray highlights some problematic similarities between our times and the 1930s. Both feature: a large wealth gap...
Mauldin: The Calm Before The Economic Storm
The global economy is slowing. Germany, for instance, may already be in recession. GDP there dropped 0.1% in this year’s second quarter, with little reason to expect better from Q3 which we will learn soon. Whatever you call it, Germany is certainly not in a good...
Advice Worth Taking
We’ve reached the Thanksgiving weekend, and as always, I’m thankful for loyal readers like you. I hope you are enjoying some quality time with family and friends. And because of the holiday, this week’s letter will be shorter than usual, but I think it will offer real...
Technically Speaking: Turkeys, Markets & A “Revision Of Belief”
On Monday, the markets jumped on more “trade news,” despite there being no real progress made. However, such wasn’t surprising as we discussed in this past weekend’s newsletter: “Over the last few weeks, we have been discussing the...
Recession? The Risk Isn’t Gone 11-22-19
Holiday Note Review & Update Recession Risk Isn’t Gone New: Financial Planning Corner Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Holiday Publication Note All of us at RIA Advisors,...
Muddling for Solutions
Those who experienced the 1930s as adults are mostly gone now, but they left notes. We have a pretty good record of what that period was like. It wasn’t fun to begin with—then it got worse. This year, I’ve written several times about the 1930s parallels that Ray Dalio...
Too Fast, Too Furious – Hedging For A Short-Term Correction 11-15-19
The “QE, Not QE” Rally Is ON Too Fast, Too Furious Why We Are Hedging New: Financial Planning Corner Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha The “QE, Not QE” Rally Is...
The Road to Default
Nothing is forever, not even debt. Every borrower eventually either repays what they owe, or defaults. Lenders may or may not have remedies. But one way or another, the debt goes away. One of Western civilization’s largest problems is we’ve convinced ourselves debt...
Technically Speaking: A Correction Is Coming, Just Don’t Tell The Bulls…Yet.
In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rather severe extensions of the market above both the longer-term bullish trend and the 200-dma. To wit: “Currently, it will likely pay to remain patient as we head into the end of the year. With a big...
The QE Rally Is On – How To Play It & What Happens Next 11-08-19
The “QE, Not QE” Rally Is ON How To Play It What Happens Next Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha The “QE, Not QE” Rally Is On Just recently, we released a study...
Technically Speaking: Everyone Is Swimming In The “Deep End.”
With the market breaking out to all-time highs, the media has started to once again reach for their party hats as headlines suggest clear sailing for investors ahead. After all, why not? The Federal Reserve cut rates for the 3rd time this year. The Fed is also back...
Fed Gives Up On Inflation, Welcome To The U.S. of Japan 11-01-19
Retest Confirms Bullish Breakout Fed Gives Up On Inflation Welcome To The U.S. of Japan Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Retest Confirms Bullish Breakout “If you are a bull,...
Technically Speaking: 4-Risks To The Bullish View
When I was growing up, my father, probably much like yours, had pearls of wisdom that he would drop along the way. It wasn’t until much later in life that I learned that such knowledge did not come from books but through experience. One of my favorite pieces of...
October Harvest increases upside for yet to be discovered CBD Producer
A successful hemp harvest has reduced the risk and increased the upside for CBD distillates grower and producer Upper Street Marketing (OTC:UPPR). The probability of the share price getting to $5.00 in 2020 has substantially increased. UPPR’s most recent price was...
The Fed’s “Not QE” And How We Are Playing It 10-25-19
Market Review & Update Playing The Fed’s QE Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update “If you are a bull, what is there not to love?” That was...
Technically Speaking: It’s Crazy, But We’re Adding Equity Risk
In last week’s update, I discussed the case of why it was “now or never” for the bulls to take control of the market. To wit: The ECB announced more QE The Fed reduced capital requirements and initiated QE The Fed is cutting rates A “Brexit Deal” has been...
For The Bulls, It’s Now Or Never 10-18-19
Now Or Never For The Bulls Bearish Case Has Teeth Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha It’s Now Or Never For The Bulls In April of this year, I wrote an article discussing...
Technically Speaking: Bulls Get QE & Trade, Remain “Stuck In The Middle”
“Clowns to the left of me,Jokers to the right, here I am,Stuck in the middle with you” – Steelers Wheel __________________________ The lyrics seem apropos considering we have Trump, China, Mnuchin, the Fed, along with a whole cast of colorful...
Trade Deal Done? Is 3300 The Next Stop For The Market? 10-11-19
Trade Deal Done QE, Not QE, But It’s QE Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Trade Deal Done On Thursday and Friday, the market surged on hopes that a “trade deal” was...
What about the Brexit?
Will Brexit happen? Yes, it will. Perhaps not on October 31 as planned, but it will happen before the end of this year. The actual departure of the UK from the European Union is not the main issue, however. More important is the reaction by the financial community and...
Technically Speaking: This Is Nuts & The Reason To Focus On Risk
Since the lows of last December, the markets have climbed ignoring weakening economic growth, deteriorating earnings, weak revenue growth, and historically high valuations on “hopes” that more “Fed rate cuts” and “QE” will keep this...
The Good, The Bad & The Ugly
, The Good, The Bad & The Ugly The Ugly Not Really Bad, More Okay-ish The Good Hope For More Q.E. Will It Work Next Time The Fly In The Ointment Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha...
Confidence Drives The Economy & Trump’s Trade War Is Killing It
Economic growth isn’t random. It comes from individual decisions to buy, sell, or do nothing. We all make dozens every day. Corporate CEOs and CFOs make bigger decisions, like whether thousands of people get hired or a factory gets built. That means, the economy...
U.S. Is ‘Code Red’ for Recession, Inventor of the Yield Curve Signal Says [VIDEO]
U.S. Is 'Code Red' for Recession, Inventor of the Yield Curve Signal Says Source: Bloomberg Television BullsNBears.com was founded to educate investors about the eight secular bear markets which have occurred in the US since 1802. The site publishes bear market...
Review of Michael Markowski’s 2018, Crash Predictions
A little more than a year ago, on September 11, 2018, SpotLight TV’s Jason Feinberg interviewed Michael Markowski about a “day of reckoning” or crash coming for the US stock market. In the interview Mr. Markowski explained why the six technology stocks which...
Technically Speaking: The Risk To The Bullish View Of Trade Deal
In this past weekends newsletter, I discussed the bullish view of a trade deal with China. “Assuming we are correct, and Trump does indeed ‘cave’ into China in mid-October to get a ‘small deal’ done, what does this mean for the market. ...
A “Trade Deal” Is Coming As Trump Needs “Win” For Election: 09-27-19
Market Review & Update Trade Deal Before The Election Trump Looking For An Exit Would A Deal Change Anything? Bear Market Still Coming Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market...
#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 09-23-19
We know you get busy and don’t check on our website as often as you might like. Plus, with so much content being pushed out every week from the RIA Team, we thought we would send you a weekly synopsis of everything that you might have missed. The Week In Blogs...
The Moment You Know You Know, You Know! 09-20-19
Market Review & Update The Moment You Know Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update Last week, we started our discussion by itemizing the list of all the things...
The Fed cuts base rate by 0.25 percentage points
It was no surprise today when the Fed cut its base rate by 25 basis points. It also was no surprise that President Trump immediately after the Fed announcement called Chairman Powell and the rest of the FOMC a bunch of cowards for not cutting rates more aggressively....
US economy is still doing OK
The US economy remains modestly positive. The latest figures on industrial production in August posted an uptick of 0.6% m/m and 0.4% y/y. Manufacturing production was down 0.4% y/y, up a little from a negative 0.5% the month before. And capacity utilization inched up...
Technically Speaking: The Risk Of A Liquidity Driven Event
Over the last few days, the internet has been abuzz with commentary about the spike in interest rates. Of course, the belief is that the spike in rates is “okay” because the market are still rising. “The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was poised for its...
Bull & Bear Tracker up 11% vs. S&P 500 loss in August
For the month of August, the Bull & Bear Tracker’s published signals produced a gain of 11.27% for aggressive traders who traded the S&P 500’s triple leveraged ETFs; symbols SPXS and SPXL. The gain for conservative traders trading the unleveraged ETFs;...
Bulls Regain The Narrative As They Want To Believe 09-06-19
Market Review & Update The Last Hoorah? They Want To Believe Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update Last week, we laid out 6-points about the market as the...
Technically Speaking: Just How Long Will Markets Keep “Buying” It?
In this past weekend’s newsletter, I broke down the bull/bear argument dissecting the issues of cash on the sidelines, extreme bearishness, equity outflows. However, even though the economic and fundamental environment is not supportive of asset prices at...
Breaking Down The Bull/Bear Argument
Market Review & Update Breaking Down The Bull/Bear Argument Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update Really! Another week of nowhere? This is the same chart...
Probability of no Brexit has increased
The drama over Brexit in the UK is by no means over. The new Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, just announced that he asked the Queen for a suspension of parliament and received approval from the sovereign. That means that parliament will convene October 14, the day of...
Technically Speaking: Market Risk Is Rising As Retail Sends Warning
I noted in this past weekend’s newsletter the pick up in volatility over the last few weeks has made investing in the market difficult. On Friday, the market plunged on new Trump was going to increase tariffs on China. Then on Monday, the markets rallied on...
Violent Volatility Dangerous to 2009 Bull
Due to the violent increase in volatility which occurred during August, the S&P 500 finds itself in an extremely vulnerable position for the last week of the summer of 2019. The volatility has increased the risk that the S&P 500 could decline by more than 100...
Where are you going market?
One seasoned trader just noted that he believes that many market participants right now are experiencing a down market for the first time during this prolonged bull market and as a result are getting pummeled. The crazy moves in the markets are not over and we will...
Powell Fails, Trump Rails & The Failure Of Negative Rates 08-23-19
Trump & Powell Square Off Negative Yields Everywhere Why The Fed Won’t Go Negative Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Trump & Powell Square Off Let’s start with a simple chart:...
Stock Buybacks Imperil Corporate Viability
Goldman Sachs just completed an analysis of corporate balance sheets and found that dividend and stock buybacks accounted for 103.8% of their free cash flow. Meaning that they were paying more out in cash than they had on hand! Over the last year, free cash flow has...
Mauldin – MMT Could Destroy This Nation
I am back from my 14th annual Maine fishing camp. The private event at Leen’s Lodge is generally called Camp Kotok in honor of David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors who started these outings many years ago. CNBC and others began calling it the “Shadow Fed,” but it is...
Housing Seems to be doing well
The US housing market looks a little better at the moment as existing home sales in July rose 2.5% after slipping 1.3% the month before. Sales of single family homes went up 2.8% against a 1.1% drop in June. Sales of condominiums were unchanged after declining 3.3% in...
Technically Speaking: This Is Still A “Sellable Rally”
In last Tuesday’s “Technical Update,” I wrote that on a very short-term basis the market had reversed the previously overbought condition, to oversold. “This could very well provide a short-term ‘sellable bounce’ in the market back...
Pay Attention To The Message The Yield Curve Is Sending 08-16-19
Quick Review Listen To The Yield Curve Message No One Ever Says Sell Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Quick Review Do you love #volatility yet? Last week the market swung wildly back...
Drop in August Consumer Sentiment supports Recession Fears
The chances of a recession later this year have increased again as consumer sentiment in August slumped to its lowest level since the beginning of 2019. The main factors contributing to the decline were the expected imposition of further tariffs on Chinese imports and...
Technically Speaking: 5 Reasons To Be Bullish (or Not) On Stocks
Just recently, Tom Lee, head of Fundstrat Global Advisors, published a list of 5-bullish signs for the stock investors which he says you should “ignore at your own peril.” As he notes: “In short, these signals are saying the S&P 500 is set up for...
Risk Happens Fast. Is The Selling Over? 08-09-19
Risk Happens Fast Is The Selling Over? Risk Happens Slowly, Too. Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Risk Happens Fast Over the last few weeks, we’ve been discussing the potential for a...
SEC Regulation T account maintenance requirements for trading Bull & Bear Tracker
On rare occasions when the stock market is extremely volatile the Bull & Bear Tracker’s signals can change more than once in a day. Wednesday August 7, 2019, was one of those rare days. The signal went from GREEN to RED on the open and back to GREEN at 3:40PM. ...
Bull & Bear Tracker morning signals delivery notice, August 8, 2019
Since the Bull & Bear Tracker’s first signal was published on April 9, 2018, the vast majority of all morning alerts have been sent out prior to the US market’s 9:30AM open. However, the timing for the sending of some of the morning alerts has changed...
Technically Speaking: Stocks In A Bloodbath, Look For A Sellable Rally
On Monday, stocks took a beating from rising trade tensions as China put the brakes on imports of agricultural products following Trumps latest tariff threat. As noted by the WSJ: “So much for a trade deal any time soon. Monday’s pain for U.S. investors...
Fed Rate Cut – Too Little, Too Late, As Trump Hikes Tariffs 08-02-19
Review & Market Update Risk Is Now Elevated Low Yields Don’t Support Higher Valuations Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update I am on vacation this week, but...
Technically Speaking: 5-Charts Invested Bears Are Watching Now
In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rather severe extensions of the market above both the longer-term bullish trend and the 200-dma. To wit: There is also just the simple issue that markets are very extended above their long-term trends, as shown...
Whistling Past The $70 Trillion Debt Graveyard 07-26-19
Review & Market Update Whistling Past The $70 Trillion Debt Graveyard The Real Crisis Is Coming Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Market Review & Update Last week, we discussed the setup for a near-term mean reversion because of the massive...
Technically Speaking: The Lessons Poker Can Teach You About Investing
Over the last couple of weeks, I have laid out the bull and bear case for the S&P 500 rising to 3300, and the case for the Fed to cut rates. In summary, the basic driver of the “bull market thesis” has essentially come down to Central Bank policy. This...